Steven Matz: Fantasy Expectations in 2016
By Brad Kelly
Steven Matz must feel like he is starring in an actual movie. You really cannot write a script better than how Matz’s life has unfolded so far. He was born and raised in New York, played high school ball in New York and now finds himself pitching in the World Series for his favorite team, the New York Mets.
Matz joined the ridiculous Mets rotation in June, and even though he was limited to eight starts, the potential and upside is definite. He finished the year with a, 4 W/2.27 ERA/34 K/1.23 WHIP line, with the Mets and could have done even more if not for some nagging injuries that caused him to hit the D.L.
Matz entered the season ranking highly in the Mets loaded farm system and ranked solidly amongst all talent evaluators, normally shaping up as one of the top 50 prospects in baseball. Matz reminds me of a harder throwing Andy Pettitte, with the potential to grow even more if he can continue to develop his secondary pitches.
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While Matz is still relatively young, he is pretty well developed in terms of his pitching approach. He has a fastball that sits at 94+, a big swooping curveball and an 80’s+ changeup. What is encouraging about his approach is that he pounds the zone with his fastball, he threw it 68% of the time in the bigs this season. He usually then follows that up with his curve, which I believe is his best pitch, and he threw that nearly 20% of the time.
The next step for him progression wise is whether he can master his changeup to the point where he can control down in the zone. His fastball command allows him to play all over the zone, when his curve is on it can be used to control down, left or right in the zone, so if he could get his changeup going it would allow him to cover downward in the zone on a more consistent basis.
It is crazy to think about now, but Matz actually started the year in A+ ball for two starts, before ascending all the way up to AAA and eventually into the MLB. In the minors he found consistent success through his 19 starts, 8 W/2.31 ERA/107 K/1.06 WHIP/9.1 SO9. Matz was clearly ready for a call up and I think fantasy owners will enjoy having him in 2016.
Looking forward at my early ranking on Matz, i rank him in the SP3 or 4 range. I think he lacks the sheer K upside that Noah Syndergaard possesses, but he should be able to produce stats that rank him right there amongst the better options in baseball.
I will concede that the sample size is small and he did battle shoulder problems in 2016, he had TJ surgery in 2010, so that could be a red flag. But as we have seen, his talent surely outweighs those concerns going forward. I like that he didn’t give up a homer to lefties during all his starts and kept them and RHB to only a .250 AVG. Righties got him for four bombs, so he has shwon that he can get both sides out at the MLB level.
Pitching in the postseason this season should bode well for him too in 2016, as this is undoubtedly the biggest stage he will pitch on and is against the best competition. Not to mention he has more than held his own during his outings, so it all points to prolonged success.
Going into 2016 my early projection line on Matz would be, 12 W/3.50-3.70 ERA/180 K/1.20 WHIP, which leaves plenty of value for owners in the mid portions of the draft. There will be some ups and downs as he adjusts to the big leagues over a full season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets skip him a few times in the rotation due to an innings cap, but I am not afraid to be aggressive in drafting him in 2016. Target him at will in 2016.