Just about every program in the country could benefit from hiring Tom Herman, but where might he end up?
While there’s still plenty of time left in the 2016 college football regular season, it’s never too early to start thinking about the offseason coaching carousel.
Last year’s rendition brought plenty of drama, as 29 programs made coaching changes between the start of 2015 and 2016. There were a few surprises along the way, including USC removing the interim tag from Clay Helton and Mark Richt being fired from Georgia only to land at Miami.
Even with all the chaos, the top coaching candidate on the market stayed put. Despite receiving a few offers from Power Five schools, Tom Herman chose to remain with the Houston Cougars for at least the 2016 season.
Herman helped Ohio State to the 2014 national title as offensive coordinator and has so far done a terrific job in his first tenure as a head coach. Houston went 13-1 a year ago with a win over Florida State in the Peach Bowl, is in contention for the playoff early on this year, and pulled in an excellent recruiting class that includes phenom defensive tackle, Ed Oliver.
Once again, Herman will be at the top of every program with a vacancy’s wishlist. While there’s too much time left in the season to determine which coaches will be fired, some intriguing jobs like LSU and USC could be open.
The most likely option is for Herman to remain at Houston, particularly if the Cougars get a Big 12 invite, but these 10 jobs could potentially lure him away.
10. Baylor Bears
While there’s no doubt Baylor would love to have Herman aboard, there’s only a minuscule chance that interest would be reciprocated.
The Bears fired very successful coach Art Briles in May for his failure to address multiple allegations of violence against women on campus. Given the toxic nature of the program and the possibility of NCAA punishment, a coach of Herman’s caliber is probably not going to come anywhere near Baylor.
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Still, Baylor is a major program that will be in the market for a coach unless Jim Grobe does something special with the team this season. Herman could certainly run his offense with high-level recruits at Baylor, and perhaps he would prefer a place with lower expectations for his first Power Five job.
The Bears are also going to open the pocketbook for their next coach, although they couldn’t outbid someone like LSU or Texas. Herman is very unlikely to go to Baylor, but crazy things happen on the coaching carousel every offseason.
9. Penn State Nittany Lions
James Franklin’s job at Penn State is probably safe for the 2017 season, though the Nittany Lions would have expected more at this point in his tenure. Should Penn State choose to move on, Herman can expect to receive a call from Happy Valley.
After bringing Vanderbilt football back to life with a pair of nine-win seasons in 2012 and 2013, Franklin made the move to Penn State prior to 2014. The Commodores had not won nine games since 1915, and Penn State was surely impressed with Franklin’s ability to recruit top athletes to a tough place to win.
Franklin has continued that success with Penn State in some ways, as he is still recruiting like a maniac. However, concerns about his in-game coaching ability have proven to be warranted, as the Nittany Lions have struggled offensively despite having plenty of talent.
Penn State is 16-13 in two-plus years under Franklin and suffered a loss to Pittsburgh in a critical game earlier this year. Another seven-win season might lead the Nittany Lions to go in a different direction.
Herman could pull in some top recruiting classes for the Nittany Lions, and Penn State is a very good job. Still, Happy Valley is a long way from Herman’s typical recruiting base, and he might have his sights set on a bigger job like LSU.
Joining the Big Ten East with Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh around doesn’t seem like an appealing prospect either, although Herman doesn’t seem like one to shy away from a challenge. Consider Penn State a longshot, but still on the radar.
8. Oregon Ducks
Herman running an Oregon offense should be a terrifying proposition for the rest of the Pac-12, and he would be a great fit in Eugene if there was mutual interest. Still, Herman is more likely to remain in Texas or move to the SEC, and the job might not be open by the time he leaves Houston.
Mike Bellotti made the dormant Ducks competitive in the early 2000s, laying the groundwork for Chip Kelly to turn the program into a powerhouse. Kelly won 46 games in four seasons, including a Rose Bowl, and led the Ducks to the 2010 BCS Championship Game.
When Kelly left for the NFL in 2013, the Ducks chose to promote offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich to head coach. Initially, Helfrich didn’t miss a beat, as Oregon went 11-2 in his first year and reached the championship game again in 2014.
However, the Ducks have to be concerned with the direction the program is heading under Helfrich. Oregon failed to win 10 games last year for the first time since 2007 and was ranked only 24th in this year’s preseason poll.
Helfrich took some heat for a number of questionable decisions in last week’s loss to Nebraska, including going for two five times. Oregon probably won’t move on in 2016, but a really poor season in Helfrich’s fourth year in charge could prompt a change.
Herman would pull in some terrific recruits on the offensive side of the ball to Eugene, and Oregon would be willing to pay a ton for a coach of his caliber. Even so, Herman is more likely to jump to a more established blue blood.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish should not even consider firing Brian Kelly just due to a poor start in 2016. Still, crazy things can happen in South Bend, and it’s the type of high-profile job that could attract Herman.
In five-plus years under Kelly, the Fighting Irish have enjoyed their longest run of sustained success since the early 1990s. Kelly led Cincinnati to a pair of BCS appearances including a Sugar Bowl win, Kelly moved to Notre Dame in 2010 and quickly got the Irish back to eight wins after the terrible Charlie Weis era.
Notre Dame made the championship game in 2012 with a 12-1 record and qualified for the New Year’s Six last season despite a number of injuries. While expectations at Notre Dame are very high, firing Kelly would be a mistake at this point.
Still, there are a few concerns following Notre Dame’s 1-2 start to 2016 that included an upset at the hands of Texas and a home loss to Michigan State. The Fighting Irish need to get much better on the defensive side of the ball, and Kelly could come under some fire if things start to get worse.
Other schools might be a better fit for Herman’s style and recruiting base, but Notre Dame is one of the premier jobs in the entire nation, and he would at least have to think about the move should it open up.
6. Auburn Tigers
Auburn is the most likely program on this list to actually have an opening this offseason, making it a possibility for Herman.
Following a 1-2 start to the year with the uninspiring play on the offensive side of the ball, Gus Malzahn’s job at Auburn is in serious jeopardy. That idea would have been unthinkable just three years ago, as Malzahn led the Tigers all the way to the BCS National Championship Game in his first season as head coach and promptly received an eight-year extension.
Since then, Auburn has compiled a 16-14 record despite being ranked sixth in the preseason poll in both 2014 and 2015. The Tigers have lost seven straight conference games, including six in a row at home, showing Malzahn just might not be up to the task of competing in the SEC West year in and year out.
Malzahn could be coaching for his job next weekend against Les Miles, who is also on the hot seat at LSU. Given the Tigers’ inability to move the ball, it seems unlikely that Malzahn will win enough to avoid being fired, particularly if he continues to stand by offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee.
Depending on how other things fall across the nation, Auburn could be the biggest job open this offseason. Still, the chances of Herman jumping to a good yet not top-tier job are pretty slim.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
With a poor start to 2016, Oklahoma might be wondering if it’s time to move on from legendary head coach Bob Stoops. That’s probably not going to happen just one year removed from a playoff berth, but the Sooners will also be keen to ensure Stoops doesn’t follow a Mack Brown-type path of decline.
Stoops took over in 1999 and immediately led Oklahoma back to glory. The Sooners captured their first championship since 1985 in Stoops’ second year and made it back to the championship game in 2003, 2004 and 2008.
Oklahoma has typically been consistent under Stoops with 11 seasons of double-digit wins during his tenure. Still, there are a few concerns, as Oklahoma has lost seven major bowls since the title game and turned in a disappointing 8-5 season in 2014.
Those fears were temporarily erased with last year’s playoff appearance, but Stoops is under pressure again after a 1-2 start to the season. Oklahoma was ranked third in the preseason poll before being beaten comfortably by Herman’s Cougars and dominated by Ohio State.
The biggest concern right now is recruiting, as Ohio State simply had the better athletes all over the field. Herman would fix that in a hurry, and there’s would likely be mutual interest between the two sides if a change was made.
Stoops is probably safe for this year, but if Herman stays a few more seasons at Houston, the Sooners could be an even more likely option further down the line.
4. Texas Longhorns
Here’s where things start to get a little more realistic in terms of a potential move for Herman. Charlie Strong probably shouldn’t be fired this season, but you never know what’s going to happen at Texas, and Herman would at least strongly consider making the move.
Following a successful tenure at Louisville that included a Sugar Bowl in, Strong made the huge jump to Texas prior to the 2014 season. Things haven’t gone well for Strong so far, as he compiled an 11-14 record in his first two years and missed the postseason for the first time in his career in 2015.
That wasn’t Strong’s fault, as Brown left the cupboard bare with very poor recruiting near the end of his career. Still, the administration at Texas demands results on the field no matter what, and Strong entered 2016 on the hot seat.
A season-opening win over Notre Dame bumped Texas to No. 11 in the polls and went a long way towards saving Strong’s job. However, the Fighting Irish don’t look like such a strong team at this point, and the Longhorns later followed that up with a loss to California that included a number of head-scratching coaching decisions.
Even if Strong wins something like eight games, Texas probably has its eyes on Herman and would not hesitate to make a change if he was available. Herman would have a massive recruiting advantage while keeping his base in Texas, and the Longhorns could pay more than just about anyone.
3. Texas A&M Aggies
Yes, Texas A&M is currently one of the most hyped teams in the nation with a 3-0 start and No. 10 overall ranking. However, we’ve seen the Aggies fall off in October and beyond before, and Kevin Sumlin’s job shouldn’t be considered safe if hiring Herman is a remote possibility.
Sumlin himself enjoyed a successful four-year tenure at Houston, including a 12-1 season in 2011 before moving to College Station. Behind Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M went 11-2 in Sumlin’s first season, the highest win total for the Aggies since 1998.
After a 9-4 season in Sumlin’s second year, things have gone a bit downhill. It’s becoming apparent that Sumlin’s success was a product of Manziel and Mike Evans, as the Aggies have turned in a pair of disappointing 8-5 campaigns since.
Texas A&M was ranked in the top 10 near the beginning of both seasons, so 2016 shouldn’t be considered a success. Another 8-5 season coupled with multiple highly touted quarterbacks choosing to transfer could be enough to dismiss Sumlin.
Should that happen, Texas A&M will certainly look to Houston again, and has enough money to attract Herman. While Herman could wait for a true blue blood program to open up, there’s a real chance Texas A&M could be the best job available this offseason, which might be enough for him to move.
2. USC Trojans
Despite a string of questionable hires, USC remains one of the premier programs in the nation and is high-profile enough to lure Herman away from Texas.
The Trojans have decided to keep things in-house since Pete Carroll left to coach the Seattle Seahawks in 2010, and it hasn’t worked out well so far. Lane Kiffin went 28-15 in just over three years at the helm of the Trojans, while Steve Sarkisian was fired midway through 2015 following a number of alcohol-related incidents.
Surprisingly, USC chose to remove the interim tag from offensive coordinator Clay Helton rather than pursue Herman or any other top coach on the market. Since being made the full-time head coach, Helton has gone 1-4 with blowout losses to UCLA, Alabama, and Stanford.
With new athletic director Lynn Swann under a tremendous amount of pressure, Helton’s job is in serious jeopardy. The Trojans surely have to look outside their inner circle for a coach this time, and Herman will be their best option.
USC has one of the best rosters in the nation in terms of raw talent, so a coach of Herman’s ability could quickly get it contending for national titles again. Even if it is a bit far away from Texas, USC has a lot of advantages that will be tough for Herman to ignore.
1. LSU Tigers
The Les Miles saga at LSU may finally be coming to an end, making it far and away the most attractive option should Herman choose to leave Houston.
Miles picked up right where Nick Saban left off at LSU, compiling an 114-33 record in 11-plus years in charge in Baton Rouge. LSU won the national title under Miles in 2007 and made an additional appearance in the title game in 2011.
As great as Miles has been, the program has been declining since the start of 2014. An 8-5 season in 2014 was somewhat expected, but LSU was expected to be much better than 9-3 a year ago and had all but fired Miles prior to the Texas A&M game.
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With a top recruiting class and preseason No. 5 ranking, LSU was expected to compete for a title before a season-opening loss to Wisconsin. While there’s still plenty of time for Miles to save his job, it’s going to take some serious improvement on offense to win enough games.
The Tigers want an offensive-minded coach, making Herman a strong fit. LSU would be willing to pay more than any other school apart from maybe Texas, and Herman could easily lead a dynasty with all the resources in Baton Rouge.