The NBA season is almost upon us which means it is time for that sacred ritual — basketball experts guess at what they think will happen this season. Predicting the future is hard and we’re usually wrong, but that’s half the fun! Here are picks and projections from some of FanSided’s best and brightest basketball minds.
Picking team win totals is one of the hardest exercises in prognostication. It can be fairly obvious who is good and who is bad heading into the season. The degree to which teams are good and bad is a little more murky.
It is assumed that the Golden State Warriors will again finish with the best regular season record but how hard will they push in the regular season? Does anything besides a championship matter to them and could they lose regular season games by resting their stars or playing their bench?
The San Antonio Spurs are not the same team without Tim Duncan, even at his advanced age. How far will they fall this year and will the Los Angeles Clippers be there to pick up their slack?
Here are the best guesses at Western Conference win totals from some of FanSided’s basketball experts.
The Eastern Conference may not be as top heavy as the Western Conference, but that doesn’t make it any easier to project. The morass of teams in the middle of the playoff picture are tough to sort out. No one seemed to get dramatically better this year and plenty of teams seem to be skating on the edge of disaster.
The MVP race this season is as wide-open as any in recent memory. It’s assumed that Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry will each steal some of the other’s shine. Ditto for Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and the Clippers. LeBron James may throttle back during the regular season. Kawhi Leonard may not be ready to take the leap. James Harden, Russell Westbrook, and Anthony Davis may not win enough to make themselves viable candidates.
The rest of the award picture isn’t much clearer but the public demands picks, so here we are.
The standard wins and awards are just some of the fun one can have imagining the season that’s to come. We didn’t stop there and meandered through a few other big questions like, who will be the first coach to get fired and who might find themselves on a different team by the end of this season.
Have fun and, of course, let us know everything that we got wrong.
Who is the first coach to get fired this season?
John Buhler (@buhler118): If Jason Kidd opts to have mid-season surgery again, ba-bye!
Cody Williams (@TheSizzle20): Everything you hear about the Bulls leads me to say Fred Hoiberg.
Kevin Yeung (@KevinHFY): Doesn’t feel like there’s going to be a whole lot of coaching shake-up this season, I guess since literally half of the league has shuffled coaches since the start of last season. Fred Hoiberg wasn’t great last season, but even more than that, HAVEYOUSEENTHEBULLSROSTER, so he’s the easiest call here.
Rory Masterson (@rorymasterson): Though Fred Hoiberg seems to sit on a throne of fire, Alvin Gentry has to show vast improvement in New Orleans to get the most out of Anthony Davis as he enters his prime. Last year’s slew of injuries didn’t help, but Gentry did not respond encouragingly to the adversity and has only made the playoffs twice in a coaching career spanning parts of thirteen seasons.
Philip Rossman-Reich (@omagicdaily): There has been so much coaching turnover in the league the last two years, and it feels like so many teams are embracing long-term rebuilds. So giving up on a coach after two years seems unfair. I would put Alvin Gentry and Jason Kidd on full alert though if their teams struggle. Kidd’s team will struggle and the Bucks may not have the patience for it.
Chris Barnewall (@ChrisBarnewall): Every year we have a coach get fired ridiculously early, and it’s usually for a struggling team that was not expected to struggle — like the Houston Rockets last year. As such, my pick will be Alvin Gentry and the New Orleans Pelicans. They just fit the criteria. Doesn’t mean it will actually happen, but the seat there likely isn’t safe.
Daniel Rowell (@danieljrowell): Doc Rivers. It’s time to be real about the Los Angeles Clippers, they are not that great. They are a team that has had talented trio of players in Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, and Chris Paul that have repeatedly failed to make it to a Western Conference Championship series and the team did not get any better in the offseason. Doc Rivers has failed to build the right parts around them and I think as a GM / Head Coach he has been given a fair run (3 years?). I can see Doc either making moves or getting let go before Christmas if this team isn’t top three in the West.
Dan Israeli (@danisraeli): The coaching turnover from last year really thins the field of potential candidates. Most of the middling teams with something to prove (i.e., make playoffs) have new coaches. Fred Hoiberg, Alvin Gentry and Jason Kidd seem like the top three candidates. For a darkhorse candidate, how about the Heat’s Erik Spoelstra? His contract details are murky, but the Heat are expected to regress big time this year and it’s possible Spoelstra stays with the organization while stepping aside from head coaching duties.
Who is the Rookie of the Year runner-up?
Buhler: Minnesota Timberwolves’ Kris Dunn behind only the Philadelphia 76ers’ Dario Saric.
Williams: Oklahoma City Thunder big man Domantas Sabonis behind Kris Dunn.
Yeung: Kris Dunn behind Joel Embiid. Writing this from a Starbucks in Palo Alto, CA.
Masterson: Brandon Ingram will work his way into the starting rotation ahead of Luol Deng and enjoy a splendid second half of the season.
Rossman-Reich: Kris Dunn with Dario Saric winning. I think Dunn will get his chance. He may come along slowly at the beginning of the season, but his experience in college will help him translate quickly and push his way for minutes. It may just take some time and his raw numbers will not be enough.
Barnewall: I’m gonna go with Jaylen Brown. The Celtics are gonna win a lot of games, and Brown is gonna be sneaky fun. Might get him some votes but not enough to win it.
Rowell: Tough call. I think the rookie of the year race will be a toss up between Joel Embiid and Buddy Hield and it all just depends on how much usage Hield gets in New Orleans. I feel more confident about Embiid going into the season based on the limited preseason highlights, so give me Hield as the runner up.
Israeli: Rookie of the Year is a stat-based award. Not to say KAT didn’t deserve it last season, but it’s the reason a player like Jahlil Okafor finishes ahead of Justise Winslow in votes. Buddy Hield has a great shot to lead rookies in scoring as a three-point shooter on a depleted Pelicans team. After that, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric may cancel each other out, opening the door for Kris Dunn to grab votes as a super sub in the early season/emerging starting point guard by season’s end.
Who is the biggest name moved at the trade deadline?
Buhler: Paul Millsap. Only top-20 player to be moved. Atlanta tried to trade him this summer.
Williams: At the deadline? I’ll go Greg Monroe. But I think Ricky Rubio goes well before then.
Yeung: Brandon Knight, since I think the Phoenix Suns have a few too many assets around to not end up reshuffling them in some shape or form. (Superstar trade? I’d be down.) Eric Bledsoe would be a sexier guy to trade for, but even with the injuries, I imagine the Suns would prefer to keep him in most potential deals. I also have some doubts that Knight takes to the sixth man role smoothly, especially for a team that won 23 games last season.
Masterson: Danilo Gallinari, only because, to echo others, I think Rubio goes before the deadline. Galo’s on an expiring contract, and Denver’s frontcourt is a tightly-wound can of sardines waiting to explode.
Rossman-Reich: Ricky Rubio. The writing seems on the wall that the Timberwolves are moving on from Rubio and going with their younger core. Tom Thibodeau will surely love Rubio’s defensive ability, but his future is not in Minnesota anymore. Not with Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine pushing for minutes at the guard spot. Minnesota makes their move in February.
Barnewall: Nikola Vucevic. The Magic have a log jam upfront, and if Vucevic can’t get his defense to at least okay then Orlando may decide to try and clear up space for Ibaka and Biyombo.
Rowell: Blake Griffin. I’m doubling down on this Clippers ain’t good so blow it up take. The L.A. Clippers are that perfect mix of talent and locker room drama that will load up a lot of trade machines this season. I think if the Clippers aren’t at their best by the deadline Griffin will be on his way out of LA.
Israeli: The hot name going into the season is LaMarcus Aldridge, which seems totally dependent on how he and Kawhi Leonard play together in the post-Duncan era. Teams like Boston and Phoenix have the assets (players and picks) to make a Godfather offer to the Spurs. If the Aldridge rumors are just hot air, a name that makes a lot of sense is Serge Ibaka. While he is being pegged as the centerpiece of the Magic roster, he is also an unrestricted free agent in 2017 on a team loaded in the frontcourt.
Who finishes third in the MVP voting?
Buhler: James Harden behind only Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.
Williams: Kawhi Leonard behind Karl-Anthony Towns and Russ.
Yeung: James Harden, behind Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. (Serge Ibaka finishes fourth, obviously.)
Masterson: Kevin Durant, behind Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Weep for the 2012 Finals, a reminder that everything we love dies eventually.
Rossman-Reich: Stephen Curry behind Chris Paul and LeBron James. Curry gets some blowback from his numbers going down. But he is still Stephen Curry. And the best player on the best team gets MVP votes. The Clippers will be a good regular season team and this is Paul’s year to shine.
Barnewall: LeBron James. I think he’s gonna take it easy this year, but he’ll be the dominant force he always is.
Rowell: LeBron James. He’s a popular pick after what he did in the Finals but I’d guess he will be taking it easy to start the season, which slots him around spot number three if the trend from the past couple years continue.
Israeli: Season win total remains paramount in the MVP vote. After LeBron, Durant and Curry split the vote, finishing in that order.
Who finishes with more wins — the Warriors, or the Sixers/Nets/Lakers combined?
Buhler: Warriors 65, Unholy Triumvirate 64. Edge: Golden State.
Williams: I’ve got the Trio of Tears with 66 to Golden State’s 65.
Yeung: I’ll spot the Sixers-Nets-Lakers ten wins and take the Warriors anyway.
Masterson: Warriors 68, Carnival of Misery 67, reading like the scoreline of the most exciting college basketball game you’ll watch this season.
Rossman-Reich: The unholy trinity. I think Philadelphia will be better than people think and be in the upper 20s. The Nets will flirt with missing 20. But the Lakers will also do better than expected with their youthful revolution. The Warriors, more importantly, ease off the throttle. They won’t need to hit 70 or the upper 60s to secure home court.
Barnewall: Gonna take the field here. I joked that the Warriors would win 80 games when they signed Durant, but in reality it’s probably more around 62. I also have the Lakers surprising people and winning a decent chunk.
Rowell: I think the Warriors, but am prepared to be wrong. I think Warriors make it to 65-69 wins without really trying and I’d be surprised if the Nets break 20.
Israeli: I have the Warriors at 67 and the Los Brooklyn Sixers at a combined 57.
Which teams finish ninth in each conference?
Buhler: East: Washington Wizards, West: New Orleans Pelicans.
Williams: In the East, the Knicks and Bulls tied at 35 wins for ninth. The West? Rockets
Yeung: The Miami Heat in the East — they’re out Dwyane Wade, Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and very possibly Chris Bosh, which is almost all of their veteran infrastructure. There’d be further slippage, especially since their only remaining bigs are Hassan Whiteside, Josh McRoberts and Willie Reed, but Erik Spoelstra is one of the best at hyper-small ball. In the West, I’ll say it’s the Dallas Mavericks, who didn’t really get worse on paper this summer, but regardless are just worse than eight other teams (neither of which are the Pelicans or Timberwolves, by the way).
Masterson: In the East, the Bulls, despite (or maybe because of) Mayor Hoiberg. In the West, I have the Mavericks sneaking into the playoffs over the Timberwolves, probably by virtue of some esoteric tiebreaker that only Rick Carlisle knows.
Rossman-Reich: The Washington Wizards finish ninth. The talent is still there. But they just do not have enough to get over the top. In the West, the Houston Rockets fall short of the playoffs. James Harden is great and all, but there are some deficiencies on that team — especially on defense — that keep them out of the playoff picture.
Barnewall: The Magic and Bulls tie for 9th in the East which is funny since they both have spacing problems. In the West I have Dallas coming in at 9th even though I’m sure Carlisle will make me look like a fool.
Rowell: The Bulls. Unless they have more moves to make I think they will remain competitive but wind up on the outside looking in yet again. Too many guards, and a slight downgrade from Gasol to Lopez.
Israeli: Portland falls just short in the West, while the Bucks miss out in the East.
What team does Nerlens Noel play for at the end of this season?
Buhler: It’d be pretty cool to see him block shots for Patrick Ewing in Charlotte, right?
Williams: Any answer I have comes with zero confidence, but I think staying on the Sixers is the most likely option simply because I’m not sure anyone is giving Philly the value they’ll want in return.
Yeung: Keep him in Philly! Jahlil Okafor just doesn’t fit with this team, which was constructed with too little interest fit-wise to provide him the kind of roster accommodations he needs. If Okafor were to work in Philly, he’d need a really good passing game (he had some of it in college, showed none of it last year) and high-post game, but even then I much prefer the idea of supersized Point Simmons-Saric-Noel lineups trucking inside and kicking the ball around.
Masterson: I’m finding it increasingly difficult to believe that Jahlil Okafor isn’t the odd man out in Philly; being that Noel is a functionally productive basketball player right now, the Sixers could stand to keep him around for a little while.
Rossman-Reich: I think the Sixers end up keeping Noel over Jahlil Okafor. Either that, or they do not find a taker for him for the offer they want. Philadelphia is in no hurry here.
Barnewall: Hang on, let me just fire up 2K and randomize three teams…well congrats Noel you’re on the Nets.
Rowell: I see a lot of Nerlens > Okafor talk. I agree but I think that the most tradeable player and asset for the Sixers is Nerlens. I can see a team like Lakers who have a lot of assets and could use a younger talent in the frontcourt trying to make a move for Nerlens.
Israeli: Noel plays defense, and should be easier to move if the choice is between him and Okafor. As far as who can use his services, the Celtics love athleticism and defense and are currently starting Amir Johnson at power forward. And the Sixers love stockpiling draft picks. So there’s that.
Who will be the most fun (non-superstar) player to watch this season?
Buhler: Steven Adams, every single year until he is a superstar.
Williams: Mario Hezonja is everything right with the world.
Yeung: It’s Tony Allen, because there are a few guys who are as good on defense as him, and some of those guys are much better at other things, but none of them are more fun to watch than Tony Allen on defense.
Masterson: JIMMER FREAKING FRE- oh, you mean in the NBA? Given that we’re in the age of the tweet-and-text avalanche whenever somebody starts carpet bombing from three, I’m keeping my eye on Devin Booker. This, of course, presumes that Kristaps PorzinGOAT is already a superstar.
Rossman-Reich: Monta Ellis. If only just to see if he gets traded for Rudy Gay and makes the Internet explode.
Barnewall: Kemba Walker’s crossover is still the most underrated move in the NBA. When he’s got it going it is pure entertainment.
Rowell: Dion Waiters got the keys to DJ Khaled’s jet skis. The Heat are going to be awful, but I can’t wait to see what Waiters Island looks like when it moves just off the coast of Miami.
Israeli: The conversation starts with Kay Felder and ends with Kay Felder. I am all about Kay Felder highlights (we talkin Vine game) in 2016-17. LeBron and K-Fed for the White House.