Brian McCann became the first big MLB name to be traded this offseason. Will any other big stars be on the block?
Free agency is the big story of every MLB offseason, but every year, there are big trades that also help shape the Hot Stove narrative. The first big trade of this offseason saw All-Star catcher Brian McCann moving from the New York Yankees to the Houston Astros. The trade gave the Astros their answer at catcher and allowed the Yankees to dump salary and clear the way for Gary Sanchez to catch every day.
Last year, several big names were traded, including Ken Giles, Mark Trumbo, Aroldis Chapman, Todd Frazier, Craig Kimbrel, and Starlin Castro. With a weak free-agent class mostly devoid of top-flight starting pitching and young sluggers, expect the trade market to be robust once again. Rumors have already begun flying, and the hot stove will only get hotter as the Winter Meeting approach in early December. Here are the five stars most likely to be traded before the 2017 season.
Chris Sale, SP
The 2016 season was clearly one to forget for the White Sox and Sale. Things were ugly from the start, with the Adam LaRoche retirement controversy dividing the clubhouse and the front office. Ace Chris Sale was one of the more vocal supporters of LaRoche and his son Drake, leaving the batboy’s jersey hanging in his locker. Controversy found Sale during the regular season after an ugly disagreement involving scissors and throwback jerseys.
Top top it all off, the White Sox struggled to their fourth losing season in a row despite high expectations and a hot start to the season. Sale was his typical brilliant self, winning 17 games, throwing six complete games, and logging nearly 230 innings. With three years remaining on his incredibly team-friendly contract, Sale is extremely valuable on the trade block. He could net the White Sox three or four top prospects, including MLB ready players who could impact the team immediately.
Rumors have been swirling, and the White Sox are dancing around them while the market develops. Trade talks involving Sale are nothing new given the team’s struggles, but his looks like the year he is finally moved out of Chicago. Interested teams could include the Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, and New York Yankees.
Andrew McCutchen, CF
That the Pittsburgh Pirates would ever consider trading Andrew McCutchen would have been unheard of two years ago. He was an MVP, the face of the franchise, and the savior of baseball in the Steel City. My, how things have changed. McCutchen’s skills are in obvious decline, and he is no longer the best outfielder in Pittsburgh.
Details emerged that when the Pirates dealt closer Mark Melancon to the Nationals at the deadline, they were also discussing McCutchen. The sides could not come to an agreement to complete what would have been a true blockbuster trade, but the report shows the Pirates were serious about doing more than listening to offers on their All-Star.
McCutchen’s OPS has slid for two consecutive years after peaking at .952 in 2014 when he led the National League. The 30-year-old struggled for most of the 2016 season, slashing .256/.336/.430. He did not miss any significant time, but his swing never looked right.
The Pirates control McCutchen for two more years at a cost of $28.75 million. With Josh Reddick, a far lesser player, receiving a four-year deal for $52 million, McCutchen is a steal at that price. Pittsburgh slumped and missed the playoffs in 2016, and they appear outgunned by the Chicago Cubs. It may be time to see how many prospects McCutchen can return. The Pirates may be wise to hold onto the five-time All-Star until midseason and then trade him if his bat bounces back.
Brian Dozier, 2B
The Minnesota Twins had a surprising 2015 season and hung in the playoff race until the final week of the season. To many around the league, however, the winning season looked like a fluke. The Twins did not have enough pitching to carry over the momentum from their winning season. In fact, they were the worst team in the league, losing 103 games.
The lone bright spot for the Twins was second baseman Brian Dozier. After making the All-Star team in 2015, Dozier broke out for 42 home runs, one of the best power seasons for a second baseman in league history. In the process, he was able to shake off his reputation for fading in the second half.
Dozier’s value may have peaked, and the Twins found out the hard way that their flirtation with playoffs was a mirage. Falling off to an 83-loss season would have left some room for optimism, but falling all the way to 103 losses will force the Twins to re-evaluate their entire roster. Despite the home runs, Dozier may come back to earth next season, lowering his trade value in the process. He is still a high-strikeout hitter who had never batted above .250 for an entire season before 2016. Unlike McCutchen, Dozier’s trade value can only go lower, and the Twins should move him as soon as possible.
Ian Kinsler, 2B
Does anyone know what the Detroit Tigers are doing? At the 2015 trade deadline, they traded away David Price and Yoenis Cespedes. Dave Dombrowski was relieved of his duties running the front office, and a rebuild was begun. Then last winter, the Tigers were back in win-now mode, signing Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann to deals over $100 million apiece. Both struggled in 2016 and the Tigers missed the playoffs again.
The roster in Detroit remains old, expensive, and underwhelming at key positions. The farm system has been neglected for years, and the contracts for Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander are too long and massive to be moved easily. The Tigers have to do something to find a way to retool their roster, and second baseman Ian Kinsler is one of their few older players who may be tradeable.
It may be moderately difficult for the Tigers to move Kinsler. He has ten teams on his no-trade list. To approve a trade to any of those teams, the 34-year-old would likely seek a contract extension. A similar predicament held up a trade of Brandon Phillips to the Nationals last winter. The right team will be able to convince Kinsler to accept a trade. He is a more well-rounded option at second base than Dozier, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have already expressed interest.
J.D. Martinez, OF
Martinez will be the easiest big name left on the Detroit roster to trade. He is signed for only one more year at $11.75 million, and the Tigers have already indicated that they do not have interest in seeking a long-term extension. For a one-year rental, Martinez has good value, and teams may have interest in acquiring him for an entire season rather than two months after the trade deadline.
The outfielder emerged out of relative obscurity after signing with the Tigers as a minor-league free agent before the 2014 season. In his three years in Detroit, he has hit 83 home runs while slashing .299/.357/.540. He did miss time last season due to a freak elbow injury, but he has generally been healthy throughout his career.
One easy fit for the Tigers and Martinez are the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have a need for a slugging corner outfielder, but have a handful of long-term contracts on the books. An extension for Madison Bumgarner also looms on the horizon. If the Giants are interested in Martinez, they will want to get a trade worked out before the season to maximize their return. The Tigers may want to try and extract a higher price with a mid-season trade, but if interest is high thanks to a lesser free-agent class, Detroit should pull the trigger.
Bonus Speculation!
Trades are made every offseason that seemingly come out of nowhere. Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie or Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres on the eve of the season. This year may be no different, with shocking trades pulled off, specifically involving young players.
The Chicago Cubs may finally have to trade one of their young players. With Kyle Schwarber returning for a full season in 2017, innings may be hard to come by for Javy Baez and Jorge Soler. Both could bring back a young pitching prospect to the Cubs.
Yasiel Puig has been on and off the trade block for the past two years. His antics may finally have played him out of town as his power numbers continue to stagnate. The talent is undeniable with Puig, but he has yet to put it all together. He is still on a fairly cheap contract, and could pull out a 30-homer season yet.
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There are also several aging stars on long-term deals who could be traded. Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabreara, or Joey Votto could all be moved if the right pieces fall into place. Any of these trades would come with a varying degree of salary shuffling and waived no-trade clauses.