2016 was quite the year for European basketball. A fantastic Euroleague finish saw Russia dominate headlines, with Lokomotiv Kuban making a shocking Final Four run and CSKA Moscow winning the title. A record 15 first-round picks in the 2016 NBA Draft were born abroad, with seven prospects drafted directly from European clubs. The summer saw a massive influx of European talent to the NBA, as Dragan Bender and Juancho Hernangomez, and other NBA Draft picks were joined by Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Dario Saric, and Davis Bertans from high-profile European clubs.
With so much talent headed out of Europe, the fear was that the 2016-2017 season wouldn’t be as successful. But with new formats for Euroleague and Eurocup, and a new continental tournament sponsored by FIBA, the 2016-2017 season has gotten out to a strong start. We’ve seen posters left and right. Milos Teodosic and CSKA Moscow are putting on a Spursian clinic in Euroleague. New potential NBA players, like Nicolo Melli and Will Clyburn, are stepping up in the place of guys like Saric and Malcolm Delaney. Anthony Randolph is doing things. And from a prospect perspective, guys like Ante Zizic and Luka Doncic are setting a pace few young European players have been able to do before them.
Since we like to cover European hoops from the lens of an NBA fan, we decided to end 2016 with a ranking of Europe’s best NBA prospects. A new group of young talent has shown its potential early on, and while the 2017 NBA Draft might not have the depth of international talent that 2016 did, there’s still plenty of scouting to do overseas. As we head into 2017, here are the fifteen best names to keep an eye on, ranked according to NBA readiness. You’ll see names here to keep an eye on for the 2017 Draft, the 2018 Draft, and draft-and-stash options that could be brought over in the summer.
Honorable mention: Rodions Kurucs, who’s injured; Jonathan Jeanne, who has immense potential but hasn’t cracked the senior team yet; Ilimane Diop, an NBA-level rim protector prospect who likely missed his draft window.
15. Arturas Gudaitis, C, Lietuvos Rytas
Kings Draft-and-stash (2015 Draft)
2016-2017 stats: 11.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.6 blocks per game
I’ve been adamant about my love of watching Rytas this season, and Gudaitis has been at the forefront of that. Rytas has one of Eurocup’s best frontcourts, with Gudaitis, a ground-and-pound traditional big man, next to the hyper-athletic Drew Gordon. The result has been that one or both puts up video game numbers depending on the week’s mismatch, and it helped the squad advance out of the toughest opening group in Eurocup.
Gudaitis lacks the foot speed to be a competent NBA defender, but he can block shots one-on-one, and his post game is magical, as he has the footwork and raw strength to just abuse small-ball defenders on the block.
Gudaitis, were he to come over, has the potential to be an Enes Kanter-type post-up master, a bench scorer who can bully non-starter centers. The depth at center for Sacramento makes this a difficult proposition, but he’s talented enough to find a spot somewhere in the NBA.
14. Marko Guduric, SG, Crvena Zvezda
2017 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists per game
Guduric is an older NBA Draft prospect (he’ll be 22 in June), but he’s been a bright spot for Crvena Zvezda this season. After joining the team from FMP Beograd last season, Guduric has moved into a sixth man role for Red Star this year, and he’s been lighting up the Adriatic League this year, shooting 56.6 percent from the field and 38 percent on 3-pointers. Guduric is Euroleague’s answer to Nick Young, a quality microwave scorer who adds some flash, flair, and questionable decision-making to the process:
With solid strength and finishing ability to complement his streaky 3-point shooting, Guduric is worth a look as a draft-and-stash wing. He’s coming along defensively as well, and cheap shot-makers who only make *a few* dumb decisions are a valuable resource in the NBA. He may be difficult to pry from Red Star (he is a Serbian who came up through their junior system), especially if he gets better. But he has a legitimate NBA skill in his shooting, and that should be enough for him to sneak into the tail end of the draft this summer.
13. Anzejs Pasecniks, C, Herbalife Gran Canaria
2017 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 6.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, 0.8 blocks per game
Pasecniks is a bench player for Eurocup’s best team, a Latvian center who’s really come on in the last month or so. He’s nearly doubled his output from last season in points and rebounds per game, and the 21-year old has popped onto NBA Draft big boards because of it. The main draw of Pasecniks is his physical profile, as he is 7-foot-2 with prototypical NBA big man mobility. He succeeds primarily in the pick-and-roll, because he can cover a lot of ground quickly, and has great finishing ability, shooting 64 percent from the field this year.
Pasecniks also has shooting range developing out to the 3-point line, and while his block rate lags behind comparable European bigs (5.86, compared to 7.33 for Gudaitis), he has good defensive potential thanks to his size and mobility. He can be a similar player to a guy like Timofey Mozgov, a plus athlete who can be an effective role player in the NBA.
12. Isaac Bonga, SF, Fraport Skyliners
2018/2019 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 6.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists per game
Bonga is best described as “(potentially) the next Giannis Antetokounmpo.” He’s a 17-year old prospect originally from the Democratic Republic of Congo, who moved to Germany and is playing in the Bundesliga with Fraport. He’s mostly played German junior league games this season, but has been a promising talent in youth competitions, including the 2016 Adidas Next Generation tournament and UEFA U16 competitions.
At face value, there’s a lot to like about Bonga’s game. He has great length at 6-foot-8, and has solid ability finishing off the dribble and passing in the halfcourt. He checks a ton of boxes athletically, and looks like he can be a threat as both a pick-and-roll ball-handler and screener. He’s very raw right now, and weighs under 200 pounds, meaning his body still has a ways to go to mature. Continued development will be paramount, and he’s in a pretty good situation for that, as Fraport is home to a good amount of young talent and they should be a perennial FIBA Champions League or Eurocup team, meaning he should get exposure to better competition. If his body continues to fill out and he can continue to make strides as a ball-handler and shooter, he’s a top-10 level talent in 2018 or 2019.
11. Kostja Mushidi, SG, Mega Leks
2017 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 9.9 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists per game
Can the NBA-level wing prospect from Mega Leks shoot? That’s the question mark for the second year in a row. After Timothe Luwawu took NBA Draft scouts by storm in 2016, the pink-and-green squad has another athletic wing on its depth chart in Mushidi. The 6-foot-5 German national is an impressive athlete, and projects as a 3-and-D wing in the NBA, a player with the athleticism to be a wrecking ball in transition and a powerful defensive disruptor.
Much like Luwawu, Mushidi’s biggest question mark has been refinement. He has plenty of the raw athletic attributes you’d want in a wing, but his actual NBA skills have been hit-and-miss. Mushidi hasn’t shot well throughout his career, flashing decent mechanics but hitting just 35.5 percent from outside this season. He also hasn’t been very technically sound on the defensive end, relying more on his athleticism than positioning, leading to a surprising 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes, a bad mark for a guard.
However, he’s shown flashes. He’s shown decent technique in getting to the rim off the pick-and-roll, and he’s done some of his most consistent finishing out of these sets:
Continued development of his on-ball skills, as well as defensive fundamentals, will be key for him moving to the next level. He is a potential first-rounder, but will need some time in the D-League before he’s ready for rotation minutes.
10. Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Zalgiris
2017 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 3.6 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.5 assists per game
Hartenstein is a first-round prospect for the 2017 Draft, and that has come primarily from performances in junior tournaments. He was one of the stars of the FIBA U18 championships last week, averaging 14.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game in Germany’s fourth-place finish. The competition showcased Hartenstein’s NBA-level abilities — he’s a brilliant passer for a big man, has a developing outside shot, and uses his athleticism to make plays on the defensive end.
However, his performance in these tournaments has been in stark contrast to his play at Zalgiris. Hartenstein has struggled with consistency in domestic play for Lithuania’s top squad, and has struggled to play at all in Euroleague, appearing in just two contests with the club. Conditioning appears to be a serious problem for Hartenstein, as does understanding of defensive schemes, where he can lose his man off the ball and struggle to rotate when called upon under the basket.
Hartenstein will be an enticing prospect for NBA teams to look at developing. Because of his athleticism and finesse game, he’s a player who could turn into a useful two-way center. But he also has several warts, and needs to work on getting past those before he’ll be able to contribute even at the European level. That’s why he’s down here at tenth on this list, despite likely having the third-highest potential of any European prospect.
9. Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Banvit
76ers Draft-and-stash (2016 Draft)
2016-2017 Stats: 5.7 points, 1.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists per game
Like Hartenstein, Korkmaz has had issues with playing time at the Euroleague level. After struggling to find a consistent role at Anadolu Efes, Korkmaz was loaned to Banvit, debuting with a 6-point, 4-rebound effort in a win over Kolejliler on Saturday. The hope is that Korkmaz will be able to carve out more playing time at this club, especially in FIBA Champions League action.
The 76ers drafted him to be a 3-point specialist, and that’s been his role at the European club level so far. Korkmaz hit 39.8 percent of his 3-pointers last year, and he’s at 38.7 percent in limited attempts this season. However, from junior tournaments, we’ve known he can do more, and when he gets the chance, he’s shown glimpses of a more complete perimeter game:
If his debut is any indication, Banvit will likely ask Korkmaz to do more than spot up, both on and off the ball. Taking the next steps as an offensive weapon is going to be what the Sixers are looking for, and more time on the court will help him become more of a useful defensive player, where his game has always lagged behind.
8. Tadas Sedekerskis, F, Baskonia
2018 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 2.3 points, 1.5 rebounds per game
Sedekerskis was another breakout player in the U18 European Championships. Averaging 14.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, Sedekerskis took over at power forward, dominating a game against Bosnia and Herzegovina (25/12/5), and controlling the glass against Germany and France in the Final Four. This has been a culmination of a successful fall for Sedekerskis, which has also seen him earn Euroleague minutes over the last month with Baskonia. the 18-year old looks like a true combo forward, with the athleticism and shooting to play on the perimeter and the size to compete around the basket.
It’s hard not to fall in love with Sedekerskis’s passing ability. He sees the floor impressively for a big, and he’s brilliant at hitting teammates with laser passes across the floor. He’s even effective running the pick-and-roll as a ball-handler, because he can make the simple reads coming off the screen that help his big man get open buckets:
Sedekerskis also has also grown into his impressive frame well at this stage. He competes well against bigger opponents for rebounds, and he’s quick enough to blow by defenders on straight-line drives. His shooting stroke is also excellent, even though he was a bizarre 0-of-14 from outside in this tournament. Sedekerskis has had an impressive run of play this fall, and with continued exposure to top-level minutes with Baskonia, it’s not hard to see him breaking in as a first-round pick in the 2018 NBA Draft.
7. Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, Fenerbahce
Kings Draft-and-Stash (2014 Draft)
2016-2017 Stats: 12.7 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists per game
The absence of Bogdanovic has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season in Europe, as an ankle injury has kept him out of all but six contests for Fenerbahce this year. He’s definitely an NBA-ready player, though, thanks to solid playmaking and defensive abilities. Bogdanovic adds a nice dimension to Fenerbahce’s offense when he’s in, as he is one of Europe’s best prospects at creating offense off of screens:
The question with Bogdanovic is whether he will be able to compete in the NBA athletically. He’s a very sound offensive player in the European game, but he hasn’t shown the overwhelming physical ability that would allow him to finish at the same rate in the NBA. He’s also a much better shooter off of screens than off simple catch-and-shoot looks, and really seems to need separation in order to do damage offensively. This ankle injury is also slightly concerning, as it was originally projected to be a two-week injury, but the rehab process has stretched into 2017.
Still, he’s the one on this list who has proven the most to this point on the floor. If the Kings are interested, they should have an NBA-level wing player that can come over this summer. I just don’t know that he has that high of a ceiling at the NBA level.
6. Alpha Kaba, C, Mega Leks
2017 Draft Prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 10.9 points, 8.5 rebounds, 0.8 blocks per game
Kaba withdrew from the 2016 NBA Draft after suffering a knee injury last season. So far, that decision has been a good one, as he’s been the international prospect to most boost his draft stock this season. After coming in as a fringe prospect, he seems secure as a second-round option, thanks to the development progress he’s made this year.
The most positive development with Kaba has been physically, where he’s added weight without sacrificing the bounce and lateral quickness that put him on the map. While he’s not blocking shots at a high rate (3.2 percent block rate), he does a solid job affecting shots inside, and covering a lot of ground within one defensive possession.
Kaba’s also developed well as an offensive player, and should be able to help on both ends in the NBA. He’s added shooting range this season, hitting 12-of-43 from 3-point range, and he’s a brilliant hustle player on this end, with an offensive rebound rate of 15.99 and excellent mobility in the pick-and-roll.
Kaba’s skill set has taken a major leap this year, and he’s finally maturing into a long frame that will be enticing to teams looking for center help. He may top out as a role player at the NBA level, but if he keeps adding strength and touch from outside, he should be a very good one.
5. Cedi Osman, SG, Anadolu Efes
Cavaliers Draft-and-stash (2015 Draft)
2016-2017 Stats: 11.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists per game
Osman has been a quiet surprise for Efes this year, stepping in for the departed Dario Saric and delivering stretches of scoring brilliance mixed with stretches of defensive improvement. He’s been hot-and-cold this year, but the hot streaks are enough to say that Osman might be the Cavs’ best trade asset. At one point Osman had about a month stretch of shooting over 50 percent on 3-pointers, and while he’s cooled off as of late, he’s still at 41.6 percent from the season, a strong mark. This comes after Osman shot 33.1 percent in the year before he was drafted — he has completely reworked his shot, to the point that shooting is now one of his greatest strengths.
But that’s not all Osman has working for him. He was drafted for his defense and his slashing ability, and he’s still continued to develop in those aspects of the game. Osman has a solid first step off the dribble, and his finishing has gotten better, as he’s addedmore finesse moves to his repertoire in order to finish over length:
Osman’s defensive numbers are down this year, but that’s more due to Efes’s style change from a more neutral team pace to one of Euroleague’s fastest offenses. He’s done a good job of containing penetration on the wing, and he has some of the best instincts in Europe for picking off passes:
There are several 3-and-D prospects on this list, and Osman isn’t the most athletic of the group, nor does he have the highest ceiling. But he’s the furthest along of the group, and he should be able to step in as a useful player on the Cavaliers, and is a potential starter-level talent on a lesser team.
4. Dzanan Musa, SF, Cedevita
2018 Draft prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 8.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.2 assists per game
Along with Sedekerskis and Bonga, Musa will help strengthen the depth of talent in the class of 2018’s international crop. And while versatility is the name of the game for the other two young wings, Musa has one elite skill: scoring. Musa is averaging 19.9 points per 40 minutes, and is perhaps the best shot creator among the young prospects in Europe, despite being just 17-years old.
Musa has been doing most of his damage in the Croatian domestic league, where he’s averaging 13.8 points per game. But while he’s done a lot of his scoring against lower competition, he’s had a few good games at the Adriatic League level, including a 26-point performance against Union Olimpija Ljubljana a few weeks ago:
As you can see from the video, there’s a lot to like about Musa’s ability to score in simple situations at this point. He’s athletic and smart enough to be a strong transition weapon, and his footwork attacking off the pick-and-roll is strong at this point. His shot mechanics need some continued development, but that is likely to continue as he receives continued focus as a Croatian league number one option.
Musa isn’t a perfect prospect, as he will likely struggle defensively at the NBA level and there are questions about his attitude when his shot isn’t falling. But over the next year, the hope is that he will continue to branch out as a scorer. If so, he might be one of the best pure scoring prospects in the 2018 draft pool, and his potential to become a top NBA option is high if he can diversify his overall skill set.
3. Ante Zizic, C, Darussafaka Dogus
Celtics Draft-and-stash (2016 Draft)
2016-2017 Stats: 18.1 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.2 blocks per game
The marriage of potential and NBA readiness is difficult to discern in some international prospects. Which is better; a player who is more certainly “NBA ready” but doesn’t have a high ceiling, or a player who has potential, but also needs a lot more development to get there? In the NBA Draft, you lean more towards potential, but internationally, a player who has shown the requisite skills to be able to fit into a given role is probably a safer bet than a prospect who may have an NBA-level skill or two at a young age. Sometimes, it’s so painfully obvious that a player fits the NBA style of play at a position that you can’t help but conclude that he’s going to succeed at the next level. Ante Zizic is that player.
Through half a season at Cibona, Zizic has fit the role of “energy bench big” to a T. He can score efficiently in volume off the pick-and-roll (shooting 67.2 percent from the field off mostly looks around the rim), he’s a power rebounder (17.9 percent rebound rate), and he’s shown flashes of developing further, both in shooting from range and passing from the paint. He has been destroying inferior competition all season, as well; he has had games of 37/20, 28/7, and 35/12 against teams that are currently in Eurocup and FIBA Champions League. Now, he’s headed to Darussafaka in the new year, in order to give a showcase for the Celtics against the top level of European competition.
Ante Zizic, Celtics stash & FIBA's elite center, signed six-month deal to play Euroleague for Boston-born David Blatt, his brother told me.
— David Pick (@IAmDPick) December 26, 2016
For Dacka, we can already surmise what Zizic’s role will be. David Blatt has been attempting to go to war with Semih Erden and Furkan Aldemir at center, and while they have a pretty skilled five in Adrian Moerman, Zizic will provide the grit and power under the basket that the team has missed. This is a fantastic opportunity for him to showcase his talents, and if his 2016 was any indication, he’s ready to elevate his game to the next level in Euroleague, and the NBA soon after.
2. Frank Ntilikina, PG, Strasbourg
2017 Draft prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 5.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, 1.2 assists per game
Ntilikina has somewhat fallen off the radar after being considered a potential top-5 pick in the 2017 Draft over the summer. He hasn’t maintained consistent minutes at Strasbourg, and questions about his acceleration and burst have cropped up. However, Ntilikina is still a potential NBA starter, thanks to his addressing of what may have been his biggest problem: shooting. After shooting a poor 26.7 percent in 2015-2016, Ntilikina has bounced up to 47.1 percent shooting this season. A lot of this has been a product of playing off the ball this season, which has allowed him to take more catch-and-shoot looks, where his form is developing nicely.
Ntilikina is up this high because his potential is excellent. He is a good passer out of the pick-and-roll, can finish inside, and has immense defensive potential, thanks to his length, athleticism, and anticipation. If he continues to develop his feel for the game as a pick-and-roll point guard, he should settle in as a top-10 pick in June.
1. Luka Doncic, SG, Real Madrid
2018 Draft prospect
2016-2017 Stats: 8.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists per game
As good as Ntilikina could be in the NBA, he doesn’t come close to the potential Doncic has. Simply put, no player since Ricky Rubio has been at Doncic’s level in European play. At 17-years old, Doncic is starting ACB contests and taking over Euroleague games, to the point where Real Madrid is comfortable resting MVP candidate Sergio Llull and giving Doncic the keys.
Doncic is an advanced ball-handler at this stage, as he shows a comfort level as a pick-and-roll ball-handler that’s ahead of Ntilikina, Guduric, and even some players who are NBA rookies right now. Doncic isn’t overwhelmed by the speed of the game, and can hit advanced skip passes, or take the ball to the rim himself with a variety of ball-fakes and finishing moves. He’s also a growing outside shooter, hitting 42.0 percent of his 3-pointers for the season.
To make things even more enticing, the Slovenian prodigy looks like he’ll eventually be a strong defensive player as well. He has quick hands and good lateral agility, and his hops allow him to make the occasional impressive chase-down block. He also has great drive on this end, anticipating basic offensive sets and holding his own in post-ups against bigger opponents:
We’ve talked about potential and fit at the NBA level throughout these rankings. Doncic already looks like he could run an NBA-level pick-and-roll and help on the wing as a shooter, and he has the potential to develop even further as an apex scorer and defender. The best prospect in Europe looks like a future top-3 draft pick – and he has a year and a half to get better.