A look at the best players in college basketball — who make contributions without the ball in their hands.
As the age-old cliche goes — there’s only one basketball. What it means — beyond the obvious rule that the sport can only be played with one ball on the floor at a time — is a bit flexible. But one boiled down definition is this: while it’s a team sport, with five players on the floor, only one person can score — or get credit for scoring — on a given possession.
And while it may never be very insightful analysis, it can serve as a segue into the discussion topic of this article. We’ll be taking a look at some of college basketball’s ‘low usage’ superstars — guys that don’t get (or take) the opportunities to put the ball in the bucket that much, but do the other things that contribute to winning a game.
To get there, though, we’ll have to start here — Box Plus-Minus (BPM). While it’s certainly not a catch-all tool, the all-in-one metric is one of the top public measures of overall player quality out there, especially in the data-light world of college basketball. The metric’s creator, Daniel Myers, has contributed to some excellent, full-er explanations of how it’s calculated and what it measures. The short version is this: the analysis ‘relies on a player’s box score information and the team’s overall performance to estimate a player’s performance relative to league average.’ It’s a per-100-possession stat; +5 means a player is 5 points better than an average player over 100 possessions, while a -5 means the opposite. It uses all typical (and some atypical) box score measures to distill a player’s production into one number. It’s not perfect — but it is one of the best tools we have to capture everything a player does on the floor.
This article will discuss some of college basketball’s best players, as ranked by BPM, that use less than 20 percent of their team’s possessions. These low-usage “superstars” are doing many of the little things on the floor that contribute to winning OUTSIDE of scoring. We’ll be taking a look at what it is they’re doing so well, whether it’s sustainable, and what we can expect for the rest of the season.
5. Anas Mahmoud – Louisville
(13.7 percent usage, BPM +14.7 points/100 possessions)
First up is Louisville’s Anas Mahmoud. The center, a native Egyptian who left his home country just four years ago to pursue his basketball dreams in the US, has been a key part of Louisville’s No. 1 defense so far this year.
Mahmoud developed his game as a 6-foot-4 wing; a growth spurt that began when he was about 16 left him a true 7-footer and the focus of major college attention after US coaches watched him work with Egypt’s national hoops team. He ended up going with Louisville, and struggled to gain minutes (weight, too; he was about 190 pounds his freshman year) and a true role in his freshman and sophomore year. He only averaged about 8 minutes and 1.3 points per game as a frosh; his sophomore campaign didn’t see much of an expansion, with bumps to 13 minutes and 3.2 points per game.
This year has been a ‘breakout’ of sorts for him — while he’s currently only averaging about five and a half points per game, with a 13.7 percent usage rating and about four field goal attempts per game, he’s playing about half of Louisville’s available minutes at center. And he has been incredibly ‘effective’ per Box Plus Minus, rating as a player +14.7 points per 100 possessions better than average. So how’s he getting there? Let’s take a deeper look.
The most obvious is his effect around the rim — the big man is currently averaging 2.5 blocks per game, which averages out to 7.2 blocks per 100 possessions. And the block rate is not the only place his impact has been felt — check out these side-by-side shot charts, showing Louisville’s defense when he’s on the floor, and when he’s not.
As always, look to the bottom here for an explanation of shot chart methodology. Louisville is currently missing their games with Long Beach State, Old Dominion, Grand Canyon, and Eastern Kentucky in the dataset.
While Louisville’s defense is excellent defending all zones of the court, opponents are shooting almost 12 percentage points worse within 5 feet of the basket when Mahmoud is in the game, per the available shots.
This is supported by full lineup analysis from hooplens.com, which includes the games missing from the shot chart dataset. When Mahmoud has been in the game, the team’s defensive 2-point field goal percentage drops just about 8 percentage points, from 44.7% to 36.7% — and the overall defensive efficiency improves by 13 points per 100 possessions. The skills Mahmoud developed as a wing are obvious in his effect near the rim. As noted in my recap of the Louisville-Indiana clash on New Year’s Eve, his footwork, timing, and movement near the rim on defense are excellent.
He’s clearly been the best defensive center for the Cardinals — his rotation partner at the center position, Mangok Mathiang, has had no discernible effect on either the defensive efficiency or the opponent 2FG% when he’s been in the game vs. the time he’s off.
Mahmoud’s game has also developed on the offensive end. While he’s not asked to do all that much (hence the 13.7 percent usage), he’s substantially increased his volume and effectiveness at the rim this year. Last year, he only hit 21 of his 40 shots at the rim (good for 46.8 percent). Through 11 games this year (he missed two due to concussion symptoms), he’s already taken 25 shots at the rim — and hit 20 of them, for 80 percent.
And while a large portion of these makes are assisted, Mahmoud has also shown a developing post game. Per Synergy Sport’s data, Mahmoud has created 20 points on 15 post-up possessions (1.33 points per possession, in the 99th percentile), which includes 9 passing possessions that have created 11 points. The footwork and overall smoothness he displays on offense translate to this nascent post game — he looks very comfortable doing it.
I have to peg Mahmoud’s improvement as real. His advanced statistics have always marked him as a sleeping defensive positive — his Defensive Box-Plus Minus was +8.0 points per 100 possessions his freshman year, and +10.7 per 100 his sophomore year. Mahmoud’s defensive presence has finally begun to tell in the on-off numbers this year, too. His improvements on the offensive end, mainly around the rim, has made leaving him on the floor for longer periods sustainable. This allows his defensive game to shine, without hurting the team on the offensive end. And with a potential move to the starting lineup on tap — Rick Pitino started him for the first time on Saturday against Indiana — he may have the chance to play even more minutes for the Cardinals soon.
4. Isaiah Wilkins – Virginia
(13.7 percent usage, +17.5 points/100 possessions BPM)
Next up — one of a pair of ultra-efficient big men on the ‘Hoos, veteran big man Isaiah Wilkins (the other being Mamadi Diakite). Wilkins has played about 55 percent of the team’s power forward minutes in the last five games, per KenPom’s lineup algorithms, and about a tenth of the minutes over the same stretch as the nominal ‘center.’
Wilkins, though the stepson of the high-flying nine-time NBA All-Star Dominique Wilkins, lives for the less glamorous parts of winning basketball. The starting power forward for Virginia as a junior, Wilkins’s 5.9 points per game so far this year would mark the first time he’s averaged even 5 points per game in his 3-year career. Last year, though, he finished in the among the top four on an Elite Eight team in a wide variety of statistical categories — third in rebounds and steals, fourth in assists, and first in blocks.
He’s pulling the same trick this year — despite averaging ‘just’ 5.9 points per game (ninth on the team), he’s leading the team in rebounds and steals, sits at second in blocks, and comes in at third in assists. He is the quintessential glue guy — nothing about his game stands out on its own more than the combination of everything does. His current BPM of +17.4 points per 100 possessions leads the NCAA so far this season — and he’s been a significantly positive contributor on both ends, with a +5.9/100 Offensive Box Plus-Minus and a +11.7/100 on the defensive end.
Wilkins does his best work on the offensive side around the basket — 32 of his 55 field goal attempts on the season have come in the form of a layup, dunk, or tip-in. He does particularly good work on the offensive glass — his 11.1 percent offensive rebounding rate, per KenPom, currently sits at 183rd best in the country, and he’s finished 7-of-7 putback attempts (shots taken within four seconds of an offensive rebound attempt, per hoop-math.com) so far this year. Predictably, his overall contribution to the offense is best expressed by something other than counting stats — per hooplens.com, Virginia’s offense has been 13 points per 100 possessions better so far this year — the difference between what would be the 10th-best offense in the country, and the 135th best.
It’s pretty safe to say at this point what Isaiah Wilkins is doing is sustainable — he’s been doing it for three years. He would probably be stretched if asked to carry a larger offensive role — his lack of unassisted/non-putback rim attempts, and non-existent outside shot (he’s taken twelve 3’s in his whole career) point toward a player who needs others to create opportunities for him — but when he’s on the court, his team is simply better.
3. Mamadi Diakite – Virginia
(18.6 percent usage, +14.7 points/100 possessions BPM)
And then there’s Mamadi Diakite. The big man from Guinea spent his childhood dreaming of becoming a soccer star — until his height got in the way. The 6-foot-9 big man (with a measured wingspan of 7-foot-3), as a redshirt freshman, only became a big part of Virginia’s big man rotation following the dismissal of Memphis transfer Austin Nichols — who, preseason, was expected to be one of the biggest offseason ‘additions’ in college basketball for a title contender.
The additional minutes available have let the ‘Hoos uncover a rotation gem, perhaps earlier than they would have otherwise. Diakite possesses freakish athleticism to go along with his smothering wingspan, regularly swatting shots like this. His teammate, senior London Perrantes, has called him the most athletic player he’s seen in his time at Virginia. His length and movement ability let him cover a ton of ground at the back end of Virginia’s Pack-Line defense.
And it shows up in more than just the eye test. Per hooplens.com, Virginia’s defense goes from NCAA-best to downright terrifying when Diakite is on the floor. Check out the table below:
In the minutes when Diakite is off the floor, Virginia is already holding opponents to an unadjusted 0.81 points per possession — a mark that would be the fifth-best in the country. When he’s on? 0.73 points per possession — a mark that would beat Virginia’s-already-season-best overall mark by 5 points per 100 possessions. His presence is both a deterrent at the rim — teams hit 3.2 percentage points less of their 2’s while he’s on the floor — and a boon at the 3-point line, where teams are shooting 5.3 percentage points worse.
It could just be some noise in 3-point accuracy — Diakite has only been on the floor for 241 possessions so far this year, a small sample for lineup analysis. Intuitively, though, the presence of a rim protector like him allows the perimeter defenders to extend further out: should they be beaten off the dribble while guarding the 3-pointer more closely, Diakite will be there to clean up the back end. It will be something to track as the season progresses.
Diakite is a work in progress at this point on the offensive end — he himself has embraced his current role, saying he prefers swatting shots & blowing up screens to scoring points. But there are seeds of a very dangerous offensive player in there. Most of what he does at this point is finish alley-oops and pick-and-roll feeds — 16 of his 23 made baskets at the rim this year have come off assists. But he’s making 79.3 percent of his baskets in there, and has shown soft hands and commendable restraint — he’s only committed 3 turnovers so far this year, for a minuscule 6.4 turnover percentage.
Diakite’s also shown flashes of range that hint at an offensive player that can go well beyond a pure rim-runner. He’s taken 13 mid-range twos so far this year, hitting 5 of them, and even attempted 3’s, putting in 3 of the 7 he’s tried in 2016-2017. The samples are tiny and close to meaningless from a predictive standpoint — but they do indicate he’s more comfortable with his stroke than your typical big man. Any sort of legitimate spacing value he can add on offense would be big for both Virginia and Diakite’s professional aspirations as his career moves forward.
2. Mikal Bridges – Villanova
(14.2 percent usage, +14.2 points / 100 possessions BPM)
Mikal Bridges is probably the best NBA prospect for defending national champion Villanova, despite Josh Hart’s superstar turn so far this year. The 6-foot-7 redshirt sophomore, who measures out with a 7-foot-0.5 wingspan, is a rotational linchpin for the top-ranked Wildcats despite using only 14.2 percent of the available possessions while he’s on the floor.
His biggest asset is his defensive versatility. Bridges, despite playing mainly as the nominal SF or PF in Villanova’s small ball system, has the length and lateral mobility to guard any perimeter player. He’s Villanova’s go-to on-ball defender — this year, he’s shifted on to assignments like Notre Dame’s Matt Farrell and Creighton’s Maurice Watson when ‘Nova needed someone to shut them down. And, despite his lanky frame (he’s probably generously listed at 210 pounds), he’s been able to credibly match up with true (college) power forwards in the post, and has done a solid job of pulling in rebounds — he’s up to a 15.4 percent defensive rebounding rate in 2016-2017.
What he does best on offense is inextricably linked to his best defensive asset — get steals, and finish the resulting easy buckets in transition. Bridges finished last year with a top-125 steal rate (3.1 percent), and has upped that to 3.2 percent this year. And he’s continued to do a great job running off those steals. Last year, 22 of his 71 attempts at the rim (31 percent) came in transition — and he made all 22 of those transition attempts. This year, he’s already up to twelve shots at the rim in transition — and has again made all twelve.
But he’s started to expand his offensive game this year. A year after hitting just 23 of his 77 attempts from 3-point range (29.9 percent), Bridges has upped both his volume and efficiency in his current campaign. On three attempts per game (over an attempt more per game than last year), Bridges is currently hitting 38.1 percent of his triples — 16 for 42 so far. He’s really done well on his catch-and-shoot opportunities, which comprise all but four of his 3-point attempts, per Synergy Sports. Fifteen of his 38 catch-and-shoot 3’s have gone in the basket, in the top third of all players for efficiency. With a career free throw percentage over 80, it’s getting safer to say his deep ball is for real.
He’s also begun to expand his dribble-drive creation game. While, as mentioned, a lot of his attempts near the rim come off transition baskets — not all of them do. So far this year, Bridges has scored 14 unassisted baskets at the rim in the ‘non-transition’ part of offense — anything that happens more than 10 seconds after a possession change. This rate — one unassisted make at the rim per game — is above average for college wings. When he can get a head of steam going to his left — off a dribble handoff or driving past a closeout — his quickness and go-go gadget arms make it very difficult to block his shots — he’s currently hitting 78.3 percent of his 2-pointers, the sixth-best rate in the country per KenPom. He’s also hit 6 of his 12 attempts from the ‘mid-range’ in non-transition — and none of those makes were assisted. It’s not a huge part of his game, but it marks solid development — and hints at what could be possible were he on a team that needed him to take more than 15 percent of its shots.
In all, Bridges’s BPM dominance likely seems sustainable — he had a +11.5 per 100 mark last year, on similar usage patterns. But there is some worry in his on-off numbers: per hooplens.com, Villanova plays much better on defense (about 11 points per 100 possessions) when Bridges is not on the floor, even excluding garbage time minutes. A similar pattern held last year. While some of this could be due to minutes in which Jay Wright is asking Bridges to play ‘center’ (which has occurred on about 10 percent of his possessions played — they haven’t done well on defense), it’s a trend I’ll have to track more to add further explanation.
1. Jo Lual-Acuil Jr. – Baylor
(18.6 percent usage, +14.5 points / 100 possessions BPM)
Jo Lual-Acuil (LOO-ahl ah-CHU-ill) Jr. — the big man in the middle for the upstart Baylor Bears, owner of the No. 2 AP ranking and some of the young season’s best wins — rounds out our investigation of the low-usage BPM all stars.
A 7-foot-0, 220 pound junior college transfer from Neosho County Community College, Acuil is making a huge impact in his first season on the court for the Bears. While he was on the roster last year, he sat out the season (and received a medical redshirt) due to a heart issue identified by the medical staff. Healthy (and huge), Acuil has proven a difference maker at the center of Scott Drew’s zone-centric defensive scheme.
The clear difference Lual-Acuil makes is near the rim. Beyond the obvious counting stats (he racked up 11 blocks in his first two games with Baylor, and is currently averaging 3.8 per game, second-best in the country), he provides an enormous deterrent at the rim. Check out the shot charts and hooplens table below.
Baylor is currently missing their games with Oral Roberts, Florida Gulf Coast, VCU, Xavier, and John Brown from the data source.
The defense has been about 10 points per 100 possessions better with Acuil on the floor (the equivalent of taking the defense from about the 85th-best in the country to a top-15 unit in unadjusted efficiency).
He moves his feet very well for a 7-footer, showing the ability to cover the court like this. And whatever his feet can’t take him to, his 7-foot-3 wingspan and 9-foot-5 standing reach cover for. He provides Drew’s defense with an anchor, something that can leverage the most aggressive parts of the scheme without sacrificing too much on the back end.
The biggest benefit of that rim presence is what it enables in the zone. As detailed in this excellent breakdown of Acuil’s early season emergence, his presence allows the Bears to trap more aggressively on the wing to force turnovers and uncomfortable ball movement. It also allows the zone to spread further to the 3-point line and harass perimeter shooters and ball movement. As shown in the tables and charts above, the biggest difference in the defense when Acuil is on the floor is the 3-point percentage. When he’s off the floor, the Bears are letting opponents pour the ball in from deep, to the tune of 37.8 percent. When he’s on the floor, teams are hitting just 25 percent of their 3s — a mark that would be the worst in all of college basketball for a team.
On offense, Acuil has functioned best as a roll man and putback artist. He’s made 38 of his 42 attempts at the rim on the year, good for 90.5 percent. Twenty-eight of those made baskets have been assisted, and eight more have come on a putback attempt after an offensive rebound. While he does have a hook shot he tends to favor as a post move, it really hasn’t been falling so far this year — per hoop-math, he’s made just 17 of 43 attempts classified as – point jumpers, good for 39.5 percent. While it’s an okay mark for the shot classification — D-I average on ‘2-point jumpers’ is about 35.5 percent — it’s not exactly ideal for a Baylor offense currently ranked among the country’s best. He has displayed some touch on his outside shot, hitting 4 of his 9 attempts on the year — but it’s unlikely to be a huge part of his game.
Jo Lual-Acuil Jr.’s breakout season reads as sustainable. He’s currently at a ridiculous 15.4 block percentage, and his size (and place at the back of a zone) won’t just be going away. He would be in double digits in Box Plus-Minus even if we just considered his contributions on the defensive end, and he provides real value on the offensive end with his size and prowess inside. He may even be able to raise his offensive efficiency by trading in a few hook shots for passes back out to the perimeter.