Here’s your weekly dive into what we took away from the last seven days of college hoops.
Week 11 of college basketball has come and gone and while there won’t be a new no. 1 team in the polls this week, there was still plenty of interesting action across the country. In Indiana, the Hoosiers are adjusting to life without sophomore OG Anunoby who has been ruled out for the season after suffering a knee injury. At Texas A&M, clock malfunctions produced a questionable ending for Georgia fans. In the Pac-12, Arizona’s Allonzo Trier made his debut on Saturday after finally having a performance-enhancing drug leave his system.
Here’s a look at what we learned from Trier and the Wildcats’ win over UCLA and more this past week.
1. A bad defense will make it tough for UCLA to win the title
With Lonzo Ball leading the UCLA Bruins’ potent offensive attack, it’s been easy to fit the team into the national title discussion, but Saturday’s 96-85 loss to the Arizona Wildcats emphasized the reasons you should be hesitant about picking the Bruins to win it all come March.
Against the Wildcats, UCLA gave up a blistering 1.32 points per possession. Arizona’s athletic guards were consistently able to get to their spots against the Bruins’ smaller and less athletic wings. Freshman Lauri Markkanen added 18 points on 6-for-10 shooting from the field as TJ Leaf struggled to contain a player with similar offensive strengths.
UCLA’s defensive woes aren’t limited to Saturday’s loss, though. The Bruins rank 125th out of 351 Division I teams in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. That metric measures how many points per 100 possessions a team gives up when corrected for strength of schedule. The problem? No team in the analytics era (since 2002) has won a national title with a defense that bad.
The above chart shows the 15 national champions dating back to 2001-02 as well as this season’s UCLA squad sorted by their pre-NCAA Tournament adjusted defensive efficiency ranking. The best model for the Bruins is arguably the 2009 North Carolina Tarheels, the worse defensive team to win a title in this era. The Tarheels, like this UCLA squad, ranked as the best offensive team in the country, but even their ranking suggests that teams have to play some defense to win a title.
Since beating the Kentucky Wildcats back in December, UCLA has been ranked a top five team in the polls. That ranking has been at odds with efficiency metrics that project the Bruins as more of a top 15 team. Saturday’s loss to Arizona provided some insight for why UCLA may have been a bit overrated and why it may struggle come March.
2. West Virginia’s Big 12 issues aren’t hard to pinpoint
After a pair of defeats last week, the West Virginia Mountaineers have made winning a Big 12 regular season championship a difficult proposition. The Mountaineers now have three league losses through seven games and have yet to play their road matchups with the conference’s top teams, Baylor and Kansas. While the trio of upsets have come by a combined margin of seven points, there are some noticeable issues that suggest a bit of a trend.
On the offensive end, the Mountaineers have turned the ball over on 22.2 percent of their possessions in their three conference losses. In their wins, that number is just 16.6 percent. This issue didn’t rear its head against Oklahoma, but was a big problem against Kansas State on Saturday. Turning the ball over means West Virginia has a tougher time setting its pressing defense, putting them in a less comfortable situation where they have to defend in the halfcourt or transition.
The turnover problems don’t just exist on offense. In their Big 12 losses, the Mountaineers have only created a turnover on 18.3 percent of possessions. With their high pressure style, a failure to create one often leads to easy baskets for the opposing team as reflected by their slightly worse 2-point defense in the above chart.
West Virginia is obviously a good team and it’s not too hard to attribute these losses — given their combined margin — to a lot of bad luck, but when the Mountaineers are losing the turnover battle, it puts them in a precarious position that deserves our scrutiny.
3. Matt Jones helps resurrect Duke’s season
Down 36-25 after the first 20 minutes of play at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Duke Blue Devils were treading water against the Miami Hurricanes. A loss wouldn’t have been backbreaking, but it certainly wouldn’t have produced any moral victories for a Duke team that came into the contest with a 2-3 record in the ACC and on a two game losing streak. Luckily for the Blue Devils, they were able to pull away in the second half, outscoring Miami 45-22 en route to a 12 point win.
Acting head coach Jeff Capel sat several of his starters for the second half as well-rounded glue guy Matt Jones played the best half of basketball in his career to power Duke. The senior scored 13 points, all in the second half, while knocked down a trio of 3-pointers to help give the Blue Devils the win.
In a sea of five-star recruits, it is Jones who helps keep everything together in Durham. A former four-star prospect himself, he is the Blue Devils best perimeter defender and a prolific outside shooter. He has played nearly every position for Duke this season, even spending many of the early games bringing the ball up the court for a roster that lacks a traditional point guard.
Most importantly, Jones knows his role on the team and is unselfish with the ball. It’s had a huge impact on the Blue Devils’ offensive production. According to Hoop Lens, Duke is scoring 113 points per 100 possessions against KenPom top 100 opponents with Jones on the floor. When he sits, that number craters to just 98 points per 100 possessions.
His performance on Saturday gives us an opportunity to recognize the important role that he plays for this Blue Devils team.
4. Jordan Bell and Oregon are on a roll
When preseason All-American Dillon Brooks limped off the court during Oregon’s 86-63 win over California on Thursday night, there were fears that the junior had re-injured the left foot that he had surgery on over the summer. On Saturday morning, the good news came that Brooks had just sprained his foot rather than re-broken it, although there is still no timetable for his return. Later in the day, the Ducks picked up their 16th straight win, breaking a school record for the longest win streak in its history.
Junior Jordan Bell has been a pivotal piece in helping Oregon extend its streak and in replacing the production lost in Brooks’ absence. In two games last week, the forward scored 37 points on 16-of-19 shooting and added 10 rebounds, five blocks, five steals and four assists. Bell has been one of the most efficient scorers in the Pac-12. He has a 130.0 offensive rating, per KenPom, and has made a conference best 75.5 percent of his 2-pointers.
For the Ducks to be a Final Four contender come March, they’ll need their leader healthy and back on the floor. In the interim, though, Bell and his teammates have shown that they can hold down the fort as Oregon trudges on through Pac-12 play. This week, the Ducks will hit the road for a pair of tough matchups at Utah and Colorado.
5. The National Player of the Year race is heating up
For much of the season, Villanova’s Josh Hart has been the runaway favorite to be the National Player of the Year. However, in the last week, several outlets have moved Kansas guard Frank Mason to the top of their rankings as the 5-foot-11 senior has helped guide the Jayhawks to an undefeated record since the opening night of the season.
Mason has a compelling case. He’s been the most important player for a Kansas team that is positioned to win the Big 12 once again and is a potential no. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. During conference play, he’s averaged a smooth 23.1 points, 5.1 assists and 4.3 rebounds per 40 minutes while shooting 60.0 percent from behind the 3-point line.
The move away from Hart, though, doesn’t seem to follow a dip in the Villanova guard’s performance despite the team picking up an early January loss to Butler. The 6-foot-5 guard has also been excellent in conference play, averaging 21.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per 40 minutes. Hart has not only been the Wildcats’ best defensive player, but he’s grown into a well-rounded offensive weapon as well.
Next: OG Anunoby's injury could doom Indiana
For my money, I’d still lean Hart given the season long body of work, but Mason will have an opportunity to make a big statement over Kansas’ next three games. The Jayhawks head to West Virginia on Tuesday, to Kentucky on Saturday and then host Baylor the following Wednesday.