Always a fun and eventful few days for NBA gamblers, here at The Step Back we’ve compiled a comprehensive guide to help you navigate the All-Star Weekend betting markets.
For those who are fond of betting on NBA action throughout the season (and those who have the option to legally do so), All-Star Weekend can provoke a series of mixed reactions.
Although the various events — and the prop markets that cover them — offer a change of pace and an injection of fun from the regular NBA slate and betting markets, they also provide significant challenges by way of their sheer unpredictability.
Basketball betting generally is focused, or at least influenced across all markets by the performances of teams. For this one weekend though, the outlook is dominated by the individual and there’s very little room for error in performance.
With that in mind, picking winners can be less of a science and more of a lottery. As a result, it’s an occasion when you can often find greater variations in the odds offered by betting outlets across the world.
For this exercise we’re going to take a closer look at four of the primary betting markets from across the weekend: Skills Challenge, 3-Point Shootout, Slam Dunk Contest and All-Star Game MVP. The odds included are the available odds at the time of writing from bookmakers from the US and around the world, such as bet365, Bovada, and Paddy Power.
Skills Challenge
Undoubtedly the strangest of the events on show at All-Star Weekend since the Shooting Stars competition was put out to pasture, the Skills Challenge is a frantic and unpredictable scramble that is likely more open than ever before.
Traditionally a contest that favored smaller, skilled guards, the shift in direction and skill around the NBA means that this event is no longer as cut and dry as it used to be. Before Karl-Anthony Towns emerged victorious last year, the event had been won by a guard in every year since its inception in 2003.
In a league where skills may be distributed more evenly than ever, it’s an event that offers real risk from a betting perspective, but as a result also provides the possibility to pick out a long shot winner.
As the odds below would suggest, Isaiah Thomas and John Wall stand out as players who would seem to have the right mixture of ball-handling, passing and shooting to excel on this stage. If there’s such thing as a safe bet, it’s likely found between those two.
Saying that, the most intriguing player in the field comes in the form of late replacement for Joel Embiid and current dark horse, Nikola Jokic. At the time of writing, Jokic is yet to have been assigned odds by most major bookmakers and sports books, yet the 21-year-old has wowed spectators around the league throughout the season with his passing, while also shooting 36.3 percent from 3-point range. If you’re looking to pick an outsider, Jokic could be your guy.
(All odds for this market are accurate as of 2/15, and can be found listed at bet365 and Paddy Power)
Isaiah Thomas
Odds: +230 (bet365), +200 (Paddy Power)
John Wall
Odds: +275 (bet365), +250 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +500 (bet365), +650 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +650 (bet365), +650 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +900 (bet365), +1100 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +900 (bet365), +850 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +900 (bet365), +850 (Paddy Power)
Nikola Jokic
Odds: TBD
3-Point Shootout
Although the Dunk Contest sees players attempt a host of dunks they may never even consider attempting in an NBA game, there’s a valid argument to be made for the 3-Point Shootout being the All-Star Weekend event that takes the players furthest out of their regular in-game comfort zone.
For as much as it seems to draw on one of the most conventional weapons in the modern NBA, the 3-Point Shootout adds an extra dynamic to the long shot that its best marksmen aren’t always fully equipped for.
The repetition of taking shot after shot from distance makes the Shootout a test of endurance as much as it’s a test of accuracy. As such, it’s not enough to be the sharpest shooter in the field, but you also have to be comfortable with the strain of taking on a high volume in a short space of time.
As the event’s defending champion and the player tied with Kyle Lowry for the highest 3-point percentage this season, it’s unsurprising that Klay Thompson is the man who is heavily favored by oddsmakers. At close to even money, the reward of picking Thompson as the winner from an eight-man field doesn’t necessarily balance the risk this unpredictable event can provide.
Value may be found in the likes of Nick Young or Eric Gordon, who not only are boasting strong percentages from behind the arc, but also lead this field in terms of 3-point attempts per 36 minutes. If either of those two get hot, they’re less likely to tire due to the volume.
(All odds for this market are accurate as of 2/15, and can be found listed at bet365, Bovada, and Paddy Power)
Klay Thompson
Odds: +175 (bet365), +110 (Bovada), +250 (Paddy Power)
Kyle Lowry
Odds: +500 (bet365), +850 (Bovada), +500 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +500 (bet365), +400 (Bovada), +500 (Paddy Power)
Eric Gordon
Odds: +600 (bet365), +850 (Bovada), +500 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +550 (bet365), +800 (Bovada), +500 (Paddy Power)
Nick Young
Odds: +800 (bet365), +1000 (Bovada), +850 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +1000 (bet365), +1000 (Bovada), +850 (Paddy Power)
Odds: +1300 (bet365), +1200 (Bovada), +1100 (Paddy Power)
Slam Dunk Contest
In many ways the jewel in the crown that is the All-Star Weekend, the Slam Dunk Contest regained some of its luster last year as Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine went head-to-head in what will go down in history as one of the event’s great battles.
Unfortunately there’ll be no repeat matchup this year as LaVine nurses a torn ACL rather than looking to win his third straight Dunk Contest, but Gordon returns as a headliner in need of a new rival to emerge.
That makes it no real surprise that the consensus places the Magic forward as a heavy favorite to achieve the victory that he may have deserved 12 months ago. Still, there’s certainly cause for intrigue as the unheralded rookie Derrick Jones Jr. seems to have something special in the works.
Glenn Robinson III has the necessary athleticism and explosiveness to shock the field too, while if DeAndre Jordan was to prevail, he’d be the first center to do so since Dwight Howard‘s prop-heavy routine in 2008.
(All odds for this market are accurate as of 2/15, and can be found listed at bet365, Bovada, and Paddy Power)
Aaron Gordon
Odds: -170 (bet365), -175 (Bovada), -225 (Paddy Power)
Derrick Jones Jr.
Odds: +160 (bet365), +175 (Bovada), +150 (Paddy Power)
Glenn Robinson III
Odds: +850 (bet365), +700 (Bovada), +850 (Paddy Power)
DeAndre Jordan
Odds: +1200 (bet365), +700 (Bovada), +2000 (Paddy Power)
All-Star MVP
With all of the league’s best players together — in a game where defense can often be optional — pinpointing a single player who could be the standout player from an All-Star Game is never easy.
Russell Westbrook comes into this year’s game off the back of picking up this award for back-to-back seasons, and having potentially redefined the template for what it takes to have an MVP-worthy performance in what is essentially an exhibition game.
Scoring alone is likely not enough to merit consideration in a season when players such as Westbrook and James Harden who are so regularly amassing triple-doubles look set to thrive. With that in mind, it’s unsurprising to see that pair with the shortest odds, and they would seem like logical picks to claim the crown.
In terms of value, LeBron James also looks intriguing considering he hasn’t won the award since 2008 and could be eager to send a reminder of his status to some of his peers. Another player who shouldn’t be dismissed is All-Star debutant Giannis Antetokounmpo. Seeming like a lock to get minutes due to his starting role, and capable of piling up stats and highlights at an alarming rate, the Greek Freak could be a surprising winner.
(All odds for this market are accurate as of 2/15, and can be found listed at bet365)
Russell Westbrook
Odds: +450
James Harden
Odds: +500
Odds: +550
Odds: +600
Anthony Davis
Odds: +650
LeBron James
Odds: +750
Kyrie Irving
Odds: +1200
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Odds: +1400
Isaiah Thomas
Odds: +1400
Odds: +1600
No matter whether you decide to stick with the favorites or trust in some underdogs, let’s hope your luck is in with your All-Star bets!