As Opening Day nears, here are the ‘x-factors’ for all 30 MLB teams in 2017.
Spring has nearly officially sprung on the calendar, and MLB Opening Day for 2017 is on the horizon. Optimism surely reigns for most of the teams in both leagues right now, with or without that positivity actually being realistic.
For each team the performance of certain players will dictate wins and losses one way or another, and for better or worse. A myriad of things determine who those key players will be, and previously unknown names do emerge.
As the weather warms and Opening Day nears, here is an x-factor for all 30 major league teams in 2017.
Arizona Diamondbacks: SP Shelby Miller
The Diamondbacks went all-in heading into 2016, including the trade to acquire Miller from the Atlanta Braves for a package that included 2015 No. 1 overall pick Dansby Swanson. Apart from giving up too much to get him, Miller also posted a 6.15 ERA over 20 starts for Arizona amid a finger injury and a stint in Triple-A last season.
It really can’t get worse for Miller than it was in 2016, and the pitcher that posted a 3.27 ERA from 2013-2015 presumably still exists. Somewhere toward the good end between 2016 and the previous three seasons would probably satisfy the Diamondbacks this year, and if Miller can become a legit No. 2 starter behind Zack Greinke the team could enjoy a bounce back season.
Atlanta Braves: SP Jaime Garcia
After signing the well-aged R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon to bolster their starting rotation very early in the offseason, the Braves then acquired the 30-year old Garcia from the St. Louis Cardinals in December. The left-hander is coming off a disappointing 2016 season overall, with a 4.67 ERA, but he did make 30 starts for the first time since 2011 after batting continuing shoulder issues over the seasons in-between.
Julio Teheran, Colon and Dickey all have a certain baseline to set expectations from in Atlanta, but a healthy Garcia can legitimately give the Braves a great advantage toward the back half of the starting rotation. If they don’t become a playoff contender after some notable offseason additions, and not coincidentally being aggressive as they move into a new ballpark, being in the final year of his contract would make Garcia a solid trade chip for the Braves around the deadline if he’s pitching well.
Garcia is not an ace but any means, but 30 solid starts with an ERA south of 4.00 would be just fine this season. If he can be better than that somehow, and push toward 200 innings pitched, the Braves could challenge for the NL East title.
Baltimore Orioles: SS J.J. Hardy
Over his first three seasons with the Orioles, Hardy hit 30, 22 and 25 home runs while also winning two Gold Gloves for his excellent defensive work at shortstop. But in the three seasons since he has totaled just 26 home runs, with injuries a big factor over the last two seasons in particular. Not surprisingly, all things considered, advanced defensive metrics have also not looked kindly on Hardy over the last two seasons.
Hardy came into spring training apparently fully healthy, which is obviously good news. But a back issue that was originally called an illness took him out of workouts early on, and though he’s expected to back doing baseball activities at some point soon any injury is a concern entering his age-35 season.
The Orioles have plenty of power in their lineup, so a return to 20-25 home runs is not necessarily needed from Hardy. But the internal shortstop options behind him are not great right now (Robert Andino, Paul Janish, etc.), so Hardy’s ability to stay in the lineup and offer some level of stability at a premium position will be key for Baltimore this year. There’s quite a bit a stake for Hardy in 2017 too, as the Orioles carry a $14 million club option on him for 2018 with a $2 million buyout.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Pablo Sandoval
After a very poor first season with the Red Sox in 2015 (.245/292/.366 slash-line, 10 home runs and 47 RBI over 470 at-bats), things actually got a lot worse for “Kung Fu Panda” last year. From embarrassing photos of his expanded waist line during spring training, to a seemingly convenient and severe left shoulder injury that sidelined him for good six at-bats into the season, 2016 was clearly a lost year for Sandoval.
An on-field photo emerged last summer showing how much weight Sandoval had lost during his rehab from shoulder surgery, and he reportedly showed up to spring training this year with his weight around 240 pounds. If he can sustain that dropped weight, the Red Sox did clear away some competition for Sandoval at third base by trading Travis Shaw to the Milwaukee Brewers this offseason. Time will tell if that apparent show of faith will prove to be foolish.
Boston clearly won’t be getting their money’s worth from Sandoval, with three fully guaranteed years left on his contract at $53 million and a club option for 2020. But he is probably playing for his career this year, and if healthy and in decent physical condition Sandoval can absolutely make the Red Sox an even more dangerous offense.
Chicago Cubs: OF/C Kyle Schwarber
Due to a mishap in left field, Schwarber missed almost all of the 2016 season with a torn left ACL. He did return for the World Serries though, with seven hits in 17 at-bats (.412 average) as a designated hitter and bench bat.
Schwarber showed what he can do with a bat in his hands during his first big league action back in 2015. He had 16 home runs over 232 regular season at-bats, and then added to it with five more home runs during the Cubs’ run to the NLCS.
They key for Schwarber is finding a position for him to play regularly and without incident. But he is currently in line to be the Cubs’ primary left fielder, despite last year’s collision that led to his knee injury, while also being a third option behind the plate. Designated hitter is obviously an option during interleague play in American League parks, but the priority has to be getting a full season of offense out of Schwarber no matter where he might be stuck defensively.
Left field feels very risky, though Schwarber could be coached up to avoid going aggressively after any in-between fly balls he’s not confident he can get to. No pulled hamstrings or collisions, even if it means ceding double once in awhile.
The Cubs won a World Series with virtually nothing from Schwarber, and having him almost feels like a trade acquisition heading into 2017. Help is not really needed on the North Side, barring substantial injuries, but Schwarber is a budding offensive star.
Chicago White Sox: SP Carlos Rodon
Rodon went just 9-10 with a 4.04 ERA in his first full major league season in 2016, but he upped his strikeout rate a bit (9.2 K/9) compared to his time in the big leagues in 2015 (9.0) while improving his walk rate substantially (2.9 BB/9; 4.6 in 2015).
Over 12 starts (73 innings) after the All-Star break last season, Rodon posted a 3.45 ERA, a 9.5 K/9 rate and a 2.7 BB/9 rate. Home runs are a concern for the young left-hander, with 23 total allowed last year, but Rodon allowed zero long balls or one long ball in 10 of is final 12 starts and a hitter-friendly home park should be noted.
Chris Sale is gone, James Shields’ performance does not equal his name recognition at this point and Jose Quintana seems sure to be traded once a suitable deal can be found by White Sox general manager Rick Hahn. So Rodon could become the ace of the starting rotation for the White Sox in very short order, and if he takes another step up in performance this year the future will be bright for the third overall pick in the 2014 draft.
Cincinnati Reds: P Raisel Iglesias
It seems like a bit of a waste for the Reds to use a young pitcher like Iglesias as a closer, due only to the limited innings he’ll pitch. He was great in a relief role last season, with a 1.98 ERA, six saves and 54 strikeouts over 50 innings out of the bullpen, but offseason addition Drew Storen will join Michael Lorenzen, Tony Cingrani and Iglesias in the mix for saves in Cincinnati. During the offseason Reds’ manager Bryan Price hinted at using Iglesias, Cingrani and Lorenzen to close games this season, and that was before Storen signed.
If Iglesias is not clearly the Reds’ closer entering the season, it makes sense to ramp up his workload with an eye on eventually joining the starting rotation. The Reds should have an eye on the future beyond 2017, so easing Iglesias from the bullpen to the rotation without increasing his inning dramatically should be on the radar at some point if things start to turn away from Iglesias closing games for a losing team.
The Reds are in some degree of rebuilding mode, this side of Joey Votto remaining on the team at least. Iglesias is a future building block regardless of his role, and how he pitches this season will be worth watching.
Cleveland Indians: OF Michael Brantley
The Indians reached the World Series last year, but they did so with essentially no contribution from Brantley. Multiple surgeries on his right shoulder led to him playing just 11 regular season games, and Brantley seems to be making slow, yet steady progress early in spring training this year. At this point he should be ready for Opening Day, but the Indians are sure to err on the side of caution with Brantley to avoid a repeat of last year.
Brantley was Cleveland’s best player in 2014, as he hit .327/.385/.506 with 20 home runs, 97 RBI, 23 stolen bases, 94 runs scored and 45 doubles. His follow-up in 2015 was also quite good, with a .310/.379/.480 slash-line, 15 home runs, 84 RBI, 15 steals and another 45 doubles, but shoulder surgery in November of that year has derailed his career since.
This is the last fully guaranteed year of Brantley’s contract, with an $11 million club option ($1 million buyout) for 2018. So it’s a critical year for him, and the Indians lost a fallback option in Rajai Davis this offseason. If Brantley can stay healthy and give the Indians some stability and production in left field again, all sides will be happy.
Colorado Rockies: OF Carlos Gonzalez
Amid some trade rumors last season, Gonzalez put together another good season with a .298/.350/.505 slash-line, 25 home runs,100 RBI and 42 doubles. He also played in at least 150 games for the second straight season, after failing to play 140 games in any of the previous four campaigns.
Gonzalez’s contract status drove increased trade speculation a year ago, as the Rockies fell out of any chance at playoff contention. Now finally entering the final year of his contract, along withh Gonzalez reportedly insinuating there has been “no conversation” about a contract extension with the Rockies recently, those trade rumors may quickly reignite once the seasons starts.
A fully healthy Gonzalez is an offensive force, in and out of Coors Field and even though he’s prone to being streaky. A fast start in 2017 will either up the ante for Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich to make a trade, or perhaps put the Rockies into the playoff conversation in the National League. Either way, Gonzalez is in line to set the ongoing bar for any plan the Rockies have this season, and he’s likely to be no worse than a top potential trade chip at the deadline.
Detroit Tigers: SP Anibal Sanchez
Sanchez is trending the wrong direction, with a 4.99 and a 5.87 ERA over the last two seasons while allowing a combined total of 59 home runs. He split last season between the Tigers’ starting rotation and bullpen (35 appearances-26 starts), and after some early offseason trade rumors Sanchez is left to compete with Mike Pelfrey for a spot in Detroit’s rotation this spring.
This is the final year of Sanchez’s contract, with a $5 million buyout for 2018. If he can somehow show a glimpse of his 2013-2014 form (2.92 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9), the Tigers’ rotation would likely look very formidable and give them a chance to dethrone the Indians in the AL Central. If Sanchez pitches well but the Tigers aren’t in contention, then he could be on the move at the trade deadline.
Sanchez was a very underrated pitcher just a few years ago, with diminished results now as he enters his mid-30s. The last two years compared to 2013 and 2014 show the wide range of possible outcomes here. On a team filled with notable names and still in win-now mode, Sanchez stands out to me as the Tigers’ x-factor for 2017.
Kansas City Royals: 3B Mike Moustakas
“Moose” had an injury-riddled 2016 season, with a fractured left thumb and then a torn right ACL in May limiting him to 27 games (104 at-bats), seven home runs and 13 RBI. He earned the first All-Star selection of his career back in 2015, with a .284/.348/.470 slash-line, 22 home runs and 82 RBI, so entering the final year of his contract 2017 is a critical season for Moustakas.
The Royals have a couple other key players entering their contract year, in first baseman Eric Hosmer and center fielder Lorenzo Cain, but a strong argument can be made that Moustakas is equally as important to any chance the team has to rebound back to playoff contention this year. I would actually make the case Moustakas is the most important player for Kansas City, with the unproven Hunter Dozier as is back up. A significant drop-off is virtually assured if Moustakas misses substantial time again.
Moustakas, as expected less than a year removed from his torn ACL, is being brought along slowly thus far in spring training. But if he can say healthy, a walk-year motivated Moustakas is an obvious huge x-factor for the Royals in 2017.
Los Angeles Angels: 1B/DH Albert Pujols
Pujols is clearly past his prime at this point, but his power numbers (31 home runs and 119 RBI) remained notable last season as he most served as a designated hitter for the Angels. A long troublesome right foot required surgery in December, and even with some recent progress Pujols is not a sure bet to be ready for Opening Day.
After Mike Trout, the Angels are low on hitters that legitimately strike fear in opponents and alter how pitchers pitch to the rest of the lineup. Kole Calhoun and offseason signing Luis Valbuena are nice players, but even at 37 years old and in a decline phase a healthy Pujols is a centerpiece of a lineup that still carries some weight.
The Angels seem to be headed for another mediocre season, primarily because Trout is not a pitcher, can’t be cloned to play most of the other positions and he can’t cover up all the team’s warts from center field. But if they are to have any chance to stick in the playoff race at all after about mid-June, Pujols has to be relatively healthy and in the lineup for 550-600 at-bats while producing good power numbers.
Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Yasiel Puig
Another year, and another spring to wonder about the enigma that is Puig. Last year brought a couple of low points, with a demotion and being placed on revocable trade waivers over the course of August. As expected, Puig spent the offseason as a possible trade candidate again.
But Puig hit .348 over 19 games at Triple-A, and he carried that solidly into his major league recall in September (.281, four home runs and 12 RBI over 57 at-bats). Dodgers’ manager Dave Roberts suggested in December that Puig was going to work with team trainers in an effort to lose some weight, which may help curb the hamstring issues that have plagued him off and on over the last couple years.
Puig will carry big questions about his work ethic until further notice, and his 2013 partial season breakout is getting further and further away while looking more and more like an outlier compared to the rest of his career. But he is still just 26 years old so if Puig can somehow put it all together, and lock down a spot in right field once and for all, the Dodgers could also reach their full potential in 2017.
Miami Marlins: 2B Dee Gordon
An 80-game suspension for running afoul of MLB’s performance-enhancing drug policy derailed Gordon’s 2016 season, and thus any chance the Marlins had to be a playoff contender.
Over 79 games (346 plate appearances) last season, Gordon hit .268/.305/.335 with 30 stolen bases and 47 runs scored. Not bad numbers really, even projected over a full season, but a far cry from what Gordon did in 2014 (.289, 64 stolen bases, 92 runs scored) and 2015 (.333, 58 stolen bases, 88 runs scored) while leading the majors in stolen bases both years and winning a batting title in 2015.
Gordon agreed to a five-year, $50 million contract with the Marlins after the 2015 season, and the he rewarded them by inviting questions about the legitimacy of what he did by getting hit with a PED suspension. It’s hard to blame Gordon for using PEDs if the contract he got is on the other side, but that’s another conversation.
The Marlins could look to trade Gordon if he starts this season hot, but they are more than likely stuck with him. The Marlins could be inspired by teammate Jose Fernandez’s untimely death last fall, and Gordon’s on-field production and clubhouse leadership could be the barometer for the team.
Milwaukee Brewers: OF Ryan Braun
Braun is further and further removed from his apparently PED-driven prime, but he was still the Brewers’ best player in 2016. A .305/.365/.538 slash-line, 30 home runs, 91 RBI, 16 stolen bases showed it, along with a 4.4 WAR (Baseball Reference version).
Braun was a rumored trade candidate during the offseason, with a couple contending teams possibly looking to fill a void in left field and as the Brewers are still trying to get younger and build for the future. But an albatross contract that has him due to make $76 million through 2020 with a $15 million mutual option for 2021 limits that market, and Braun is still a useful player at age-33.
Even with his past baggage, Braun is probably the only notable name to bring fans to Miller Park with any idea of watching baseball on their mind. Based on the last few seasons, a 73-89 record last season qualifies as a glimmer of hope for the future in Milwaukee. Another strong season from Braun in 2017 could inject him as a veteran leader into the future, or make him the trade chip that further accelerates a youth movement when the trade deadline approaches.
New York Mets: SP Matt Harvey
Looking for the difference between a World Series trip and a 87-win, non-playoff season for the Mets? Look no further than Harvey. In 2015, he had a 2.71 ERA over 29 regular season starts. In 2016, something was clearly wrong as Harvey struggled to a 4.86 ERA over 17 starts before being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome in his pitching shoulder and missing the rest of the season.
Harvey also missed the entire 2014 season after Tommy John surgery, so at some point the Mets would surely like to see him stay healthy, make 30-plus starts and pitch at a Cy Young level before having to commit big money to him. Harvey has one more year of arbitration eligibility left, then he will become a free agent. At this point, the Mets may willingly let Harvey hit the open market without regret.
The Mets pretty much know what they’ll get from Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom at the top of their starting rotation, but the wild card is clearly Harvey heading into this year. If he pitches to his potential and stays on the mound, the Mets will be a team to reckon with in the National League East.
New York Yankees: SP Michael Pineda
The 2016 season was a mixed bag or Pineda, with a career-best 10.6 K/9 rate and a career-high 32 starts but a 4.82 ERA and 27 home runs allowed too. But a 3.79 FIP reflects some bad overall fortune in his peripheral numbers, and a 3.21 ERA over his final six starts points to things possibly coming together for Pineda once and for all.
Masahiro Tanaka has already been given the Opening Day nod by Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi, but the rest of the starting rotation carries big question marks. C.C. Sabathia, Luis Severino and Adam Warren are in line to be the No. 3-5 starters, barring injuries or an especially dreadful spring, and Pineda is still firmly on the list of rotation question marks until he proves otherwise over a larger sample of innings.
The Yankees’ 2017 outcome will rest virtually equally on how some notable young players perform in extended exposure to the big leagues and how the starting pitching comes together. Pineda is past the point of being called a post-hype prospect now, but if he can finally find some consistency at 28 years old he will be a difference-maker in the Bronx this year.
Minnesota Twins: OF Byron Buxton
Buxton’s status as a top prospect since the day he was drafted in 2012, and initial struggles offensively in the big leagues, makes it easy to forget he is still just 23 years old. A month in Triple-A last season seemed to have helped, as Buxton hit .287 with nine home runs and 22 RBI after being recalled in September.
September production can often be dismissed, due to major league rosters expanding at the end of the season. But Buxton may have found something late last season, if he cut out the extra noise and can focus on what will make him the best hitter he can be.
Buxton is an elite defensive center fielder already, and that will afford him plenty of opportunities to figure things out at the plate. The Twins have the luxury to be patient coming off a 100-plus loss season in 2016, and with a new front office regime in place, but it would not be shocking if Buxton took a big step toward stardom this year. If he proves to be capable of hitting leadoff for an extended time, the Twins could have one of the best offenses in the American League this year.
Oakland Athletics: SP Sonny Gray
With a 69-93 record in 2016 and a last-place finish in the AL West, Gray was hardly the only or biggest problem for the Oakland Athletics. But shoulder and forearm issues each put him on the disabled list at different times, and Gray’s overall results (5.69 ERA over 22 starts, 3.2 BB/9) point to him possibly pitching hurt all season.
Gray was the subject of trade rumors off and on during the offseason, as better teams sought starting pitching, but he’s not at the peak of his value after a down season and it’s not surprising that a deal never got done. A good, and more importantly fully healthy, start to this season would surely reignite trade interest in Gray.
Gray showed he can be a staff ace in 2014 and 2015 (30-plus starts in both seasons, 2.91 combined ERA), and if Oakland makes a surprising push toward contention this year he is sure to lead that charge. But he’s just as likely to be a highly tradeable asset if he rebounds back to form, assuming Billy Beane’s history of making every effort to extract value from the roster with a limited financial budget is instructive to that.
Pittsburgh Pirates: OF Andrew McCutchen
McCutchen’s disappointing 2016 season (.256, 24 home runs, 79 RBI, six stolen bases) was a reflection of the Pirates disappointing campaign (78-83 record), while bringing a litany of offseason trade rumors that didn’t come to fruition. The fact a few teams had interest in trading for him, even off a down year, points to how good McCutchen has been and the belief he will bounce back this year.
After clear signs of decline defensively as well last season, and apparently without his blessing about it, McCutchen will move to right field this season and Starling Marte will take over as Pittsburgh’s regular center fielder. Trade rumors aren’t likely to go away either, despite some back-and-forth on the topic from Pirates’ general manager Neil Huntington, as McCutchen is entering the final fully guaranteed year of his contract with a team option for 2018.
If the Pirates return to playoff contention in 2017, a nice rebound season in all facets from McCutchen is sure to be front and center. If mediocrity reigns again, or things trend downward further, McCutchen’s performance may be the clearest sign of that too. For what it’s worth, and it’s surely subject to change for any number of reasons, Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle has already said McCutchen will hit third in the lineup this year.
Philadelphia Phillies: SP Aaron Nola
Nola started last season in phenomenal fashion, with a 2.65 ERA, a 9.8 K/9 and a 1.7 BB/9 over his first 12 starts (78 innings). But a dramatic drop-off came after that, with a 9.82 ERA over his next eight starts that was partially driven by bad luck over that stretch (.464 BABIP against). In late-July, Nola was placed on the disabled list with a right elbow issue and missed the rest of the season.
Nola was diagnosed with a low-grade strain of the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his elbow and a flexor sprain in his right forearm. He is apparently fully healthy, and expected to pitch in his first Grapefruit League game this week.
Nola’s strikeout rate (9.8 K/9 last season), excellent control (2.4 BB/9) and great ground ball rate (55%) point to his ace potential. His 3.08 FIP last season reflects a lot of bad fortune too, even as he likely dealt with a physical issue before being shut down for the season.
The Phillies made some notable offseason additions, trading for pitcher Clay Buchholz and outfielder/second baseman Howie Kendrick while signing outfielder Michael Saunders. But any chance for a return to playoff contention will be driven by Nola’s ability to lead the starting rotation as a legit No. 1 starter, and that will largely rest on the continued health of his elbow.
San Diego Padres: SP Jered Weaver
The Padres have pieced together a starting rotation with a bunch of one-year deals for veterans with recognizable names this offseason. After multiple rumors attaching them to him, they finally signed Weaver in mid-February.
Weaver spent his first 11 seasons with the Los Angeles Angels, with 150 wins and a 3.55 ERA over 322 starts. But a dramatic drop in his strikeout rate over the last two seasons (5.1 in 2015, 5.2 in 2016) has brought a ballooning of his ERA (5.06 in 2016). As expected, Weaver’s average fastball velocity fell to just 84 MPH in 2016, with a two-seamer (82.3 MPH average) that based on FanGraphs’ data seems like a slightly juiced-up version of his changeup (77.4 MPH average). With such little variation in velocity, it’s no wonder hitters have teed off on Weaver as if it’s batting practice at times over the last couple seasons.
Weaver could find things a little easier in the National League, but Sporting News’ Ballpark Power Index actually has his new home park in San Diego as more hitter-friendly than Angel Stadium. If push comes to shove, Padres general manager A.J. Preller may be hoping Weaver pitches well enough to be appealing to contending teams at the trade deadline.
San Francisco Giants: SP Matt Moore
In a bit of a statistical anomaly, Moore posted an identical 4.08 ERA for the Tampa Bay Rays (21 starts) and the Giants (12 starts) last season. But after Tommy John surgery limited him to 14 starts over the 2014 and 2015 seasons set career-highs with 33 starts and 198.1 innings in 2016.
Moore did up his K/9 rate during his time with the Giants last year, to 9.1 after posting a 7.5 K/9 with Tampa Bay before being traded. That did come with more walks (4.2 BB/9 rate with San Francisco), but Moore also allowed two runs or less in six of his final eight starts.
Consistency was a thing for Moore in 2016, as he allowed at least five earned runs in seven of his starts, but that could be expected in a first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The Giants are well-situated at the top of their starting rotation, with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija locking down the first three spots. But Moore can provide a distinct advantage over other No. 4 starters, and if he puts it together the Giants can be a World Series contender in an even-numbered year.
St. Louis Cardinals: SP Michael Wacha
For the second time in three seasons, Wacha battled a right shoulder issue in 2016. But his ERA surprisingly jumped to 5.09 last season, and he made three appearances out of the bullpen right after he came off the disabled list in September.
There have been some questions lingering about Wacha’s role in the Cardinals’ pitching staff for 2017, health-permitting of course. But with the recent Tommy John surgery for top prospect Alex Reyes, and an obvious absence for the entire coming season, Wacha is definitely in line for a starting rotation spot now. Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak has confirmed Wacha will likely be in the rotation, “if he’s physically able.”
After budding ace Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals have question marks surrounding age-related decline (Adam Wainwright) and a come back from Tommy John surgery (Lance Lynn) in their starting rotation. Wacha’s 2015 campaign (17-7, 3.38 ERA, 30 starts) showed what he can do when fully healthy, and St. Louis will need that kind of rebound this year if they want to re-enter the pantheon of World Series contenders. A case could be made for catcher Yadier Molina as the Cardinals’ x-factor in 2017, but I’m going with Wacha.
Seattle Mariners: SP Felix Hernandez
Some chinks showed up in King Felix’s armor last season, with a strained right calf dropping him below 30 starts for the first time in his career (over a full season) with a drop-off in peripheral indicators and a 3.82 ERA. Gradual signs of decline have shown in recent years, and having pitched over 2,400 innings in his career has surely diminished Hernandez from his peak years.
But Hernandez is still the ace of Mariners’ pitching staff until further notice, and manager Scott Servais named him the Opening Day starter all the way back in January. Mariners’ general manager Jerry Dipoto had an incredibly active offseason on the trade front, too much so by many estimations, but pitching acquisitions Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly are simply starting rotation filler behind Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and breakout candidate James Paxton.
After a 86-76 season in 2016, the Mariners may be primed to take the next step toward a playoff spot or even a division title this year. A remodeled roster looks fairly good on the surface, and perhaps most importantly depth shouldn’t be an issue. But Hernandez’s performance will tilt things one way or the other for the Mariners in 2017, and another injury-shortened campaign can’t be ruled out.
Tampa Bay Rays: SP Alex Cobb
Cobb has essentially lost the last two seasons to Tommy John surgery back in May of 2015, making just five starts with an 8.59 ERA upon his return last season. But that didn’t stop some early offseason trade rumors from coming, as pitching-hungry teams came calling to the Rays in the midst of a thin free agent market for starting pitching, and Cobb will become a free agent next winter.
Over 49 starts during the 2013 and 2014 seasons, Cobb posted a 2.82 ERA with an 82 K/9 rate and a 2.7 BB/9 rate. His ground ball-oriented profile remained in his limited sample after returning to action last year, with a 52.5 percent ground ball rate, so being further removed from Tommy John surgery may be all it takes for Cobb to recapture his previous form.
The Rays have virtually nowhere to go but up after a 94-loss campaign in 2016, and their pitching will have to lead any rebound back to playoff contention or they will be trade chips again before too long. Among Tampa Bay’s stable of starters Cobb seems to have the widest range of potential results, and his showing will say a lot about the team’s win-loss record in 2017.
Texas Rangers: SP Yu Darvish
Darvish missed all of 2015 due to Tommy John surgery, then he made 17 starts last season as he worked his way back with a shoulder issue mixed in for good measure. He had a 3.41 ERA in 2016 though, with an elite 11.8 K/9 rate and a 2.8 BB/9 rate, and if not for a slight issue with home runs(12 allowed over 100.1 innings) Darvish’s ERA would have been even better.
After pretty much abandoning it last year, surely due to coming back from elbow surgery, Darvish reportedly plans to re-incorporate his split-finger fastball this season. The amount he used the pitch trended down dramatically in 2014, when elbow issues first surfaced for him, but any addition to Darvish’s arsenal is good news in the right light (and bad news for hitters).
The Rangers were in the trade market for starting pitching throughout the offseason, and they may still be heading toward Opening Day (Jose Quintana?). But Darvish is an elite level pitcher when he is healthy, and he and Cole Hamels would give Texas a formidable, enviable ace duo at the top of their starting rotation. In a short playoff series against the Rangers, good luck to you if Hamels and Darvish are both pitching well.
Toronto Blue Jays: SP Marcus Stroman
After missing most of the 2015 season with a torn left ACL, Stroman was fully healthy, made 32 starts and topping 200 innings (204) for the first time in his career last year.
Stroman’s 4.37 ERA in 2016 does not inspire much confidence on the surface, but after the All-Star break he had a 3.68 ERA, a strikeout-to-walk ratio close to 4.0 and a K/9 rate of 8.5 over his 14 starts (88 innings). Stroman’s overall peripherals last year point to some bad luck, and his ground ball rate (60.1 percent) was elite. Quite simply, a 3.71 FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching), a 3.41 xFIP and two runs or less of run support in 10 of his starts last year are all begging for some positive correction in 2017 for Stroman.
The Blue Jays don’t have a proverbial ace, No.1 starter, and Stroman does not profile as that now or going forward. But in terms of a real indicator of how the team is doing at any point, at least within the starting rotation, look no further than Stroman one way or the other this season.
Washington Nationals: SP Stephen Strasburg
If Strasburg could say healthy for a full season, the Nationals might finally cash in on annual World Series aspirations and expectations. 2016 was no different, with elbow and back issues limiting the former No.1 overall pick to 24 starts.
After setting career-highs in innings (215.0), starts (34) and strikeouts (242) in 2014, and making 30 starts in 2013 as well, Strasburg has been limited to 47 starts over the last two seasons due to various injuries.
Initial concerns about Strasburg’s delivery causing durability issues have come to fruition over the course of his career, and a report from MLB.com in December suggested he will use his slider less often this season. All-together abandoning a pitch that puts extra strain on the forearm and elbow might be the best idea for Strasburg, but that doesn’t appear to be the plan unless the team forces it on him.
The Nationals have a good starting rotation and a talented team, so they will be the favorite to win the NL East. But for anything other than an empty 95-100 win regular season that yields an early playoff exit to happen in 2017, Strasburg has to be healthy enough to make 30-plus regular season starts and then be available at full capacity into the postseason. Anything less will be a disappointment.
Houston Astros: 3B Alex Bregman
After hitting .306/.406/.580 with 20 home runs and 61 RBI over 80 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, Bregman was fast-tracked to the big leagues. He moved to third base with the Astros, with his natural shortstop position clearly occupied by Carlos Correa, and he predictably struggled with a 2-for-38 start at the plate over his first 10 big league games.
But Bregman slowly found his way offensively with the Astros, hitting .313 with a .931 OPS after his very slow start. Over 15 games in September (64 plate appearances), he had a .323/.344/.629 slash-line with three home runs and 14 RBI. While that good finish can be taken with a grain of salt, Bregman is clearly a promising player who will have a regular spot in A.J. Hinch’s lineup this year.
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Bregman played 13 games at third base in the minors prior to being called up last year, and he is still has room to improve defensively at a position that’s still relatively new to him. But Bregman’s bat can keep him afloat while he gets it right at the hot corner. An Astros’ team that has the playoffs in mind will he hoping for notable offensive production in a first full major league season from the second overall pick in 2015.