The NBA is back up to speed after a lengthy All-Star Break. Here are the front-runners for the six major awards in this week’s NBA Award Watch.
February has drawn to a close. The trade deadline and the All-Star break have passed. We are now entering the home stretch of the season. Teams will be clinching playoff spots over the next few weeks. A few clubs will be preparing themselves for the 2017 NBA Draft.
The narrative for this year’s playoffs got a tad more interesting with the Kevin Durant injury wrinkle. How does that end up impacting the Golden State Warriors? It knocks Durant out of the MVP race entirely. We know that for sure.
As for the status of the six major awards that will be handed out at season’s end, let’s take a look at who the front-runners are in the first days of March in this weeks’ NBA Award Watch.
Most Valuable Player: Russell Westbrook
With Durant falling out of the race with his MCL sprain, Most Valuable Player will end up being a three-to-four man race. Houston Rockets shooting guard James Harden and Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook are in it out of the Western Conference. Boston Celtics point guard Isaiah Thomas and Cleveland Cavaliers small forward LeBron James are in the mix out of the Eastern Conference.
While James was the Most Valuable Player at the All-Star Break, it has swung back to Westbrook in the last week for a few reasons. Westbrook continues to average a triple double with 31.2 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game. The additions of Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott should help him achieve this impressive feat and be better prepared for the Western Conference Playoffs.
In advanced metrics, Westbrook has a PER of 29.5, an Offensive Box Plus-Minus of 9.8, a Box Plus-Minus of 14.3 and a Value Over Replacement Player of 8.5. He leads the NBA in all four of those categories, as well as in assist percentage (56.6) and usage (41.9).
Achieving the triple-double is historically significant enough to merit winning his first NBA MVP. While his team is on pace to win only 48 regular season games, it’s obvious that Westbrook has less to work with of any of his fellow MVP contenders. A triple-double gets him the MVP, but doing so on a 50-win team would make it a lock.
Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green
It’s going to be interesting how the Warriors handle time without Durant on the floor. They should still be the best team in the Western Conference, as having other healthy All-Stars should help. One of those guys is poised to win Defensive Player of the Year: Power forward Draymond Green.
Golden State is second in defensive efficiency at 104.1 through its first 60 games. Keep in mind that the Warriors play at a ridiculous, up-tempo pace of 100.7, second in the NBA. The driving force behind Golden State’s defensive excellence is their undersized big man Green.
He leads the NBA in Defensive Box Plus-Minus at 5.1. While he has not been the offensive weapon he was only a year ago, Green has more than made up for it on the defensive end of the floor.
If Golden State fades for whatever reason, expect players like San Antonio Spurs small forward Kawhi Leonard and Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert to challenge Green for Defensive Player of the Year. Through February, this is easily Green’s award to lose.
Rookie of the Year: Malcolm Brogdon
Look. If Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid doesn’t play another NBA game this season, that will bring him to only 31 games played this year. That’s not satisfactory to win Rookie of the Year, no matter how dynamic he has been when he is on the court.
If 76ers fans want to have a serious contender for Rookie of the Year, it may be advantageous to throw support in forward Dario Saric’s candidacy. He is playing very well for a pleasantly mediocre Philadelphia team. Saric will likely make the All-Rookie First Team.
In a very dissatisfying rookie class, let’s give it to a second-round pick out of Virginia in Milwaukee Bucks guard Malcolm Brogdon. He has played in 58 games for the 2016-17 Bucks, starting in 12 of them. Brogdon is averaging 9.7 points, 4.2 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game in 25.6 minutes per contest.
As a shooter, Brogdon is connecting on 44.4 percent of his shots from the field and 41.7 percent of his 3-point attempts. He may be 24-years old, but Brogdon has been key in the Bucks’ push for an Eastern Conference Playoff spot. Milwaukee is only two games back of the Central Division rival Detroit Pistons for the No. 8 seed. Brogdon has been huge coming off the bench for the Bucks this season.
Most Improved Player: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Most Improved Player may end up being the easiest of the six major awards to pick at the end of the season. While he had some competition from guys like Charlotte Hornets point guard Kemba Walker and Jazz point guard George Hill earlier in the season, Bucks point forward Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in the driver’s seat for Most Improved for most of the season.
It’s hard to argue for anybody other than Antetokounmpo. He went from an interesting 21-year-old prospect to the starting small forward for the 2017 Eastern Conference All-Star team. Antetokounmpo is averaging 23.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists as the primary ball-handler for the Bucks.
His PER of 26.6 is impressive, but his Win Shares of 9.0 is certainly jaw-dropping. Keep in mind that Antetokounmpo plays for a Bucks team that is currently 10th in the Eastern Conference at 26-32. His team is only two games back of the division rival Pistons for the No. 8 seed. To say that Antetokounmpo is carrying this middle of the pack Bucks team would be an understatement.
However, there is one player making a serious push for Most Improved out of the Western Conference: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are in playoff position in the West as the current No. 8 seed. Making the playoffs is massively important to lock up Antetokounmpo’s spot for Most Improved. Otherwise, don’t be shocked if Jokic steals it in the final weeks.
Sixth Man of the Year: Lou Williams
It’s interesting how the Rockets are in possession of the two likeliest recipients of Sixth Man of the Year: shooting guards Eric Gordon and Lou Williams. Gordon has embraced his new role with the Rockets are largely disappointing with the division rival New Orleans Pelicans.
Williams has been a sixth man for most of his NBA career. He took on the role with the Atlanta Hawks, won Sixth Man of the Year with the 2014-15 Toronto Raptors, and became the best player on terrible Los Angeles Lakers teams for the last two seasons.
Now that Williams is doing what he does for a NBA Finals contender, he is poised to win his second Sixth Man of the Year award. Since joining the Rockets, Williams is averaging 24.0 points in 26.7 minutes. Yes, that’s only a three-game total, but his stats while he was with the Lakers puts together a solid resume for his award candidacy.
On the year, Williams is averaging 18.9 points per game primarily coming off the bench for the Lakers and now the Rockets. Williams is shooting 44.7 percent from the field, 39.5 percent from 3-point land, and 88.2 from the charity stripe. If he continues to play at this high level, Williams will win his second Sixth Man of the Year award.
Coach of the Year: Mike D’Antoni
NBA Coach of the Year may end up being the most riveting awards race of them all. One could argue up to six coaches are serious candidates for the award. Houston head coach Mike D’Antoni is currently the front-runner, but he does face serious competition the rest of the way.
From the West, look out for Quin Snyder of the Jazz and Gregg Popovich of the Spurs. Out of the East, Scott Brooks of the Washington Wizards has a great case, as does Brad Stevens of the Boston Celtics and Erik Spoelstra of the Miami Heat.
What sets D’Antoni apart from those five is his ability to get his players to buy-in to his coaching philosophy during his first season with the team. D’Antoni is essentially getting more out of his Rockets offense than he did with the Seven Seconds of Less Phoenix Suns. Houston is second in offensive efficiency at 114.8 and third in pace at 99.5. All the while, Houston isn’t atrocious defensively as the No. 15 team in defensive efficiency at 108.2.
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This has all combined in Harden being an MVP candidate, both Gordon and Williams being Sixth Man front-runners, and the Rockets being almost a certain top-three seed in the Western Conference. The Rockets have already won more games (42) than they did all of last year (41). D’Antoni’s arrival in the Space City has certainly been clutch.