Hot-shot prospects make their MLB debuts every season, but what about the players looking for their big breakout season? Here are ten to watch for in 2017.
MLB All-Stars typically take two paths to the Midsummer Classic. Some burst onto the scene as a much-hyped prospect and excel from the moment they make their debut. The others get to the big leagues with just as much fanfare, but take their time developing and adjusting to the highest level of professional baseball. When the switch is flipped, and the light goes on for those players, however, watch out.
The Rookie of the Year contenders draw most of the hype, but the breakout stars deserve just as much love. It is a beautiful thing to watch when everything clicks for a player at the MLB level. Last year, for example, we were treated to a 40-homer season from Brian Dozier and Cy Young caliber pitching from Kyle Hendricks. Both are expected to maintain their dominance in 2017 and beyond.
With the 2017 season right around the corner, and players beginning to ramp up the intensity, which players have the potential to break out in a big way this year? If everything breaks right for these ten potential stars, they will no longer be caught in the nebulous period of a career where a player is no longer quite a prospect, but not quite fully established.
10. Byron Buxton
For the past two years, Byron Buxton has been one of the most eagerly awaited prospects in the game. The center fielder with blazing speed had traded places back and forth with Corey Seager for the title of best offensive prospect in baseball. Both made their debut in 2015, and while Seager has gone on to win the Rookie of the Year and contend for the MVP, Buxton has struggled.
The Minnesota Twins were forced into rushing their top prospect to the big leagues two years ago by a flukish run at the playoffs. So far in 138 games, Buxton is a .220/.274/.398 hitter with 26 doubles, seven triples, and 12 home runs. He also has 12 steals and has made a few highlight-reel plays in the outfield.
While there have been flashes of power, contact has been hard to come by for Buxton at the big-league level. He has already struck out 162 times in only 427 official at-bats. In the minors, Buxton was a .302/.380/.501 hitter with plenty of power and speed. He has played only 62 games at Triple-A, but excelled there.
Buxton could be this year’s Jackie Bradley, another player who profiles similarly and was rushed up to the big leagues by the Boston Red Sox. It’s way too early to write Buxton off. The potential for 30 doubles, ten triples, 20 homers, and 30 steals is still there. The Twins rushed Buxton to the bigs, but the talent is still there.
9. Aaron Judge
NBA-sized hitters have been exceedingly rare in MLB history. Only Richie Sexson stood taller than 6’7″ Aaron Judge. The mechanics of a proper swing and the ability to cover the entire strike zone make it difficult for players this tall to master the art of hitting in the big leagues. Judge made his debut last season with the New York Yankees, and struggled in 27 games.
With the big club last year, Judge batted just .179/.263/.345 with 42 strikeouts in 84 at-bats. Easy math would lead to the conclusion that he struck out in exactly half of his at-bats. Judge was completely lost at the plate against big-league breaking balls. At 24, and with little left to prove at Triple-A, Judge will be given a long leash this year as the Yankees continue rebuilding.
Judge worked hard to revamp his swing over the offseason, and the result is a much quieter swing with fewer moving parts. These changes have the Yankees excited that he can take the next step towards becoming a contributing big leaguer. It’s unlikely that Judge will ever bat much higher than .260 in the major leagues. That being said, Sexson was a career .261 hitter with 306 home runs over 12 years. If Judge blossoms into that type of player, paired with Gary Sanchez, the Yankees will be in business.
8. Joe Musgrove
The Houston Astros are a hot pick to contend in the American League this season. After picking up Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, and Brian McCann, the Astros are expected to have one of the best offenses in baseball, but they did not address the questions in their starting rotation. The health and effectiveness of Dallas Keuchel and Colin McHugh are still up in the air. Lance McCullers looks like a budding ace, but his 2016 season was cut short by shoulder and elbow injuries.
Not quite as heralded as McCullers, Joe Musgrove still has plenty of potential to help the Astros. He made his debut last season and went 4-4 with a 4.06 ERA in 11 games. Musgrove struck out 55 in 62.0 innings while showing good control.
In the minor leagues, Musgrove went 32-15 with a 3.02 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and only 1.3 BB/9. Control has never been an issue for him, even being drafted out of high school. His fastball can touch 95, and a good slider and changeup. His ability to command all three pitches this well is not often seen in a young pitcher. Musgrove acquitted himself well last year after being called up, and the Astros can expect big things from him this year.
7. Maikel Franco
Still just 24, Maikel Franco is already entering his fourth season in the big leagues. So far, he has hit 39 home runs and driven in 117 in 248 games. Franco has some jaw-dropping power in his bat, with plenty of potential to add even more muscle.
There are not many hitters in baseball who can do that to an Aroldis Chapman fastball. Franco has solid contact skills for a power hitter, and struck out only 106 times in 152 games last year. Where he struggles is deciding which pitches to swing at. The third baseman is an equal-opportunity swinger, with little patience. For his career, Franco has swung at over 50 percent of all pitches he has seen, and over 33 percent of pitches outside the strike zone.
For Franco, improving his walk rate is not the biggest concern. Some hitters just do not wait around to walk. Franco saw only 3.57 pitches per plate appearance last season, 12th-lowest in the league. Swinging early in the count is not a problem (Robinson Cano saw fewer pitches than Franco), but those swings must be used on strikes. Without much protection in the Philadelphia lineup last year, there was not much reason for pitchers to challenge Franco.
The Phillies upgraded their offense over the winter by trading for Howie Kendrick and signing Michael Saunders. Those two veterans will take some of the pressure off Franco. Removing the black hole of strikeouts that Ryan Howard devolved into will also help. With a tad more plate discipline and support from his teammates, Franco should be looking at a 30-homer, 100-RBI season in 2017.
6. Blake Snell
The Tampa Bay Rays must always be very careful not to bring their top prospects up to the big leagues too soon. It’s not always related to their development, but rather financial control. Blake Snell was probably ready to start the 2016 campaign in the big leagues, but he did not make his debut until the end of April.
Snell carries his rookie status into 2017. Overall, he made 19 starts last year, spanning 89 innings. The Rays were careful to limit his innings, as they did not have much to play for. Snell finished his first season in the big leagues with a 3.54 ERA and a very solid total of 98 strikeouts. There will be no holding him back in 2017.
The lanky left-hander can dial his fastball up to 97 when he needs to, and throws it with explosive sinking action. When he locates his heater down in the zone, there is not much hitters can do with it. Snell backs up his fastball with a changeup that is particularly effective against right-handed hitters and a slider that has good late-breaking action away from lefties. His curve was also better than expected last season, and he got 27 strikeouts with it.
Snell could stand to be more economical with his pitches, as he typically approached 100 pitches by the sixth inning last year. On a team like Tampa Bay, where pitchers rarely get to face a lineup a third time, that may not be as much of a concern. There is no holding back Blake Snell this year, and he should form a formidable one-two punch with Chris Archer this season.
5. Dylan Bundy
The Baltimore Orioles were in a difficult position last year with top prospect Dylan Bundy. One of the final players to receive a fully-guaranteed MLB deal coming out of the draft, Bundy was out of options. Normally, that would not have been a major issue, but the right-hander had spent the better part of three seasons nursing elbow and shoulder injuries. The Orioles were forced to throw Bundy to the fire with fewer than 70 innings thrown since 2012.
The fourth-overall pick in the 2011 draft handled his situation very well, doing whatever the Orioles asked of him. He began the year in the bullpen, and was stretched out to enter the rotation in the second half. All of the attributes that made Bundy such a can’t-miss prospect coming out of high school remained, and he finished the year 10-6 with a 4.02 ERA over 109.2 innings.
Bundy’s fastball, curve, and changeup all profile as plus-plus offerings at the big-league level, and he did not appear to have lost much polish on his pitches despite the missed time. He was confident and attacked hitters aggressively.
Bundy has a very good feel for all three of his pitches. It remains to be seen whether or not the Orioles will allow him to work his cutter back into the mix this season. That pitch, with slider-like action, will be his best pitch. With a full year of health under his belt, expect big things from Bundy this season.
4. Eduardo Rodriguez
Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez of the Boston Red Sox has teased the baseball world with his immense potential over the past two seasons. He made his debut in 2015, winning 10 games in 21 starts, finishing with a 3.85 ERA in a tough division. Health issues held Rodriguez back in 2016, and he saw his ERA spike all the way up to 4.71 in 20 starts.
Rodriguez had some difficulty finding his command in the first half last year while he battled through a knee injury. He entered the All-Star break with an 8.59 ERA and opponents batting over .300 against him. In the second half, Rodriguez looked like the pitcher who dazzled at times in his rookie year. He made 14 starts after the break, and posted a 3.24 ERA in 77.2 innings while limiting opponents to a .210 batting average.
The 23-year-old southpaw tweaked his knee again during winter ball, but the injury is not expected to affect him entering the regular season. If he is healthy, Rodriguez will join Chris sale and David Price in giving the Red Sox arguably the best trio of left-handed starters in the league. He has an explosive fastball and great feel for his changeup. Boston should still treat him with kid gloves, but 2017 will finally be the year, E-Rod puts together a full season of dominance in the big leagues.
3. Gregory Polanco
The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the best, most athletic outfields in baseball with Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Gregory Polanco. Last year was supposed to be the year that Marte stepped up and produced like McCutchem, with Polanco stepping up to produce like Marte. Mission accomplished for Marte, who made his first All-Star team. Polanco came close, but still has some room to improve.
In his second full season in the big leagues, Polanco made big strides in the power department, slugging .463 with 22 home runs. He had slugged only .369 with 16 home runs in 964 plate appearances in 2014 and 2015. His batting average, however, still hovered below .260.
Standing 6’5″, there is a lot of untapped power in Polanco’s 230-pound frame. He made big strides last year against left-handed pitching. Polanco posted an anemic OPS of .528 against southpaws in 2015, but raised it to a very respectable .781 last year. Polanco was still very raw when the Pirates called him up, and was still growing into his power stroke. He batted over .300 in his last three seasons in the minor leagues, and is still looking to match that in the majors.
The Pirates are going to be a sneaky contender in 2017, but they need more out of Polanco to get over the hump and back into the playoffs. He hasn’t experienced the immediate success expected, but has shown improvement each season. In his fourth year in the big leagues, look for Polanco to showcase all five tools and make the All-Star Game for the first time.
2. Daniel Norris
The free-spirited Daniel Norris has been one of the more interesting prospects in baseball for the past three seasons. He was coming off a fine rookie season in 2015 when thyroid cancer threatened to derail his career. Norris fought off the disease, and had his best year in the big leagues in 2016.
Last year, Norris went 4-2 in 14 appearances with a 3.38 ERA. He does not throw exceptionally hard, but his fastball has good late life, which allows him to generate a high number of swings and misses. He also throws a slider, curveball, and changeup, with all three generating good results so far in the big leagues. Norris significantly improved his strikeout rate last season, up to 9.2 per nine from 6.8 in 2015.
After some fits and starts to begin his career, Norris will break camp with Detroit this year, and is a big key to the Tigers returning to the playoffs. Along with a resurgent Justin Verlander and the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year, Michael Fulmer, Detroit will have a formidable top three to their rotation. Norris is much more than a funky guy who lives in a van during the offseason. He has the potential to head a rotation, and that will show in 2017.
1. Kyle Schwarber
It is not hyperbole to call Kyle Schwarber the greatest postseason hitter in the long history of the Chicago Cubs franchise. Over the past two years, Schwarber has slashed .364/.451/.727 with five home runs and 10 RBIs in the postseason. Still, we have barely scratched the surface of what Schwarber could be as a power hitter over a full season.
It’s very easy to forget that Schwarber has played in only 71 regular-season games in his career. A serious knee injury ended his 2016 season after only two games, and his return for the playoffs was not expected. In 69 games as a rookie in 2015, the catcher/outfielder/DH slashed .246/.355/.487, and showed outstanding raw power.
Schwarber is cleared to play the field and run the bases in 2016, and if the World Series is any indication, rehabbing only made him stronger. His position is still up in the air, but the 24-year-old will figure that out on the fly if his bat lives up to expectations. Manager Joe Maddon is kicking around the idea of using Schwarber as his leadoff man, and he would bring rare power to the top of the order.
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Defense may still pose an issue for Schwarber, but he is ready to put up a big season at the plate. He has outstanding patience for a young hitter, and will only benefit from hitting in front of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. The sky is the limit for Schwarber in 2017, and it would not come as a surprise to see him hit 40 home runs in his first full season in the big leagues. The legend of the War Bear is just getting started.