There are first-round upsets in the NCAA Tournament every year. Who are the ones to pick this year?
March Madness is back, and it is glorious. With everyone still reeling from Selection Sunday fallout, brackets are being filled out and entered into pools. The easy thing to do is go for chalk-picking teams by seeding. The problem is that the bracket almost never plays out that way. Eight number one seeds have reached the Final Four in the last seven years. That leaves twenty spots for lower-seeded teams to make their mark.
We have seen Cinderella teams from George Washington to VCU to Butler make a run late into the tournament and shock the world. Sometimes the early round upsets are the most fun, though. Who can forget CJ McCollum and Lehigh taking down two-seed Duke or Florida Gulf Coast beating Georgetown? Lehigh was left out this year, but Dunk City is back looking for another upset.
So who will be the top teams taken out in the first round this year? Which teams with hopes of deep runs will be sent home before the weekend even arrives? I’m here to let you know. So read on and look like the guy or girl in your office pool that knew everything. Flaunt your oracle-like status when you were the only one who saw that 13-seed advancing.
East Region
Upset 1: #12 UNC-Wilmington over #5 Virginia
The Seahawks are one of the mid-major teams that a lot of people have their eye on. Ranked highly by objective metrics (#60 by Kenpom), they have been projected to be a dark horse candidate. They certainly got a tough matchup here. Virginia is probably a bit under seeded at #5, with Kenpom ranking them the seventh-best team in the nation. They slogged through a brutal ACC slate and won 22 games, backed by a stifling defense and efficient offense. They have the top ranked defense in the nation, but they may have met their match here.
Part of Virginia’s game plan is playing at a snail’s pace. They were last in the country in adjusted tempo this season, playing slow on both sides of the ball. UNCW plays slow on defense; that should limit Virginia’s possessions and keep them from scoring too many points. They have a quick-working, efficient offense, though, and that could spell doom for the Cavaliers. If Kevin Keatts can get his team out and running, scoring some easy buckets in transition, they could manage to pull the upset. Not giving Virginia too many possessions to run away while taking advantage of the opportunities when they come is a key to beating them. UNC-Wilmington has the ability to do just that.
Upset 2: #14 New Mexico State over #3 Baylor
This upset is less about New Mexico State and more about Baylor. The Aggies are far from overwhelming. They didn’t beat a single team ranked inside Kenpom’s top 100 this season. The only major categories they rank well in are offensive rebounding and free throw rate. Against a Baylor team that will be more athletic than they are, those will be tough advantages to maintain. They don’t shoot well from 3, often an indicator of upset squads. By all means, this game does not profile as an upset.
This is Baylor we’re talking about though. They are coached by none other than Scot Drew. The Bears started the season 15-0, rose to #1 in the AP Poll, and people were still asking whether or not Drew is a good coach. We only need to go back to last year to find an instance of a top Baylor team faltering early. Last season Baylor was a 5-seed and matched up against 12-seed Yale. They lost that game. Two years ago, third-seeded Baylor lost to 14-seed Georgia State. Baylor doesn’t look like a team that will be upset early this year. But they didn’t in 2015 or 2016 either. If you want to pick Baylor and coach Scott Drew to advance past the first round, do so with caution.
Midwest Region
Upset 1: #11 Rhode Island over #6 Creighton
Rhode Island enters the NCAA Tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country. The Rams have won their last nine games, including taking the A10 Tournament crown over the VCU Rams on Sunday. Creighton, meanwhile, has faltered since losing point guard Mo Watson Jr. to injury. Since starting the season 18-1, they have crawled to a 7-8 finish. Their success was based on a dynamic offense. They play at one of the fastest tempos in the country and score efficiently. Without Watson, though, they have obviously fallen off some. Despite shooting well from all over the floor, they shoot a mediocre 68.3 percent on free throws, something that could come back to bite them in close games.
All of this opens the door for the Rams. They thrive on defense, doing their best work in limiting 3-pointers and blocking shots. Their tough defense grinds opposing offenses to a halt, something that will be key against the Bluejays. Despite not shooting well overall from deep, they have been hot of late, hitting 25 of 54 attempts (46.3 percent) in the A10 Tournament. If they can ride this hot streak and slow Creighton’s offense, they are prime for an upset here. With momentum being as big as it is in college basketball, the opposite directions these two teams appear to be heading could make all the difference.
Upset 2: #10 Oklahoma State over #7 Michigan
Michigan is likely to be a popular pick to make a run out of their #7 spot. They come in hot as can be, having just won four games in four days to win the Big Ten Tournament. Guard Derrick Walton Jr. has led the charge, taking a middling Wolverines squad to unforeseen heights. Spurred by the fifth-best offense in college basketball, per Kenpom, they can outscore even the best of them. Unfortunately for the plentiful fan base chanting “Go Blue!”, they may have been matched up with one of the few teams that can outpace them on that end.
Oklahoma State sports a blistering offense thanks the combination of first-year head coach Brad Underwood and sophomore guard Juwan Evans. Underwood is no stranger to upsets, as he led Stephen F. Austin out of the Southland Conference to win two tournament games in the last three years. Kenpom’s top-ranked offense, they sport top-six figures in both 3-point shooting and offensive rebounds. Both of those are great historical indicators of dark horse picks. If a team can win a lot of extra possessions and convert those possessions into a lot of points, that generally bodes well. While Michigan plays at a very slow tempo, the Cowboys play at one of the fastest. Look for Oklahoma State to take down red-hot Michigan and move on to the Second Round.
South Region
Upset 1: #12 Middle Tennessee State over #5 Minnesota
The 12 seeds are strong this year. Much like UNC-Wilmington, the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders are stronger than their status as a mid-major indicates. Ranked 48th by Kenpom, they only come in 15 spots behind Minnesota. Minnesota might be over seeded at #5, so MTSU gets an easier matchup here than they otherwise might have. The Blue Raiders have already won 30 games this season, and adding another one to the ledger is far from impossible.
One fascinating subplot to watch in this game is Minnesota’s blocked shots. Minnesota is one of the best in the nation at blocking shots, having the third-best block rate in the nation. One of my favorite things that Kenpom keeps track of for us is offensive block rate, or block rate against, or how often a team gets its shot blocked. Middle Tennessee ranks fifth in this category. So will one of the best teams at blocking shots in the nation be able to block one of the least blockable teams? Only time will tell. That probably won’t have a terribly big impact on who wins, but last March Middle Tennessee won as a 15-seed and ruined all the brackets. That gives them goodwill. They’ll pick up another upset win this year.
Upset 2: #11 Wake Forest over #6 Cincinnati
Let’s get this out of the way first: Wake Forest will beat Kansas State in the play-in game. That’s not really an upset as it should be a really evenly matched game, but the ACC is better than the Big 12. So Wake Forest wins. That is the beginning of the John Collins revenge tour. Cincinnati is a good team. They’re led by an excellent senior point guard in Troy Caupain and have a great front court presence with Kyle Washington. But Collins is going to be too much. Wake Forest has one of the best offenses in the country and it is run through Collins on the block.
Collins rarely gets significant help from his teammates, but he is easily capable of being a one-man show. He can score on anyone, averaging 18.9 points per game. The Bearcats allow the third-lowest field goal percentage at the rim, according to Hoop-Math, but they have yet to see a player the caliber of Collins. He’s a beast on the boards as well, ranking in the top 40 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates. In the AAC Championship game, Cincy lost to SMU by 15 and struggled to contain standout big Semi Ojeleye as he compiled a 143 offensive rating. Collins will put on a show as the Deacs advance past the first round.
Bonus Upset: #10 Wichita State over #7 Dayton
This isn’t an upset. Wichita State should be favored because they were horribly under seeded. Pick the Shockers. This is the easiest 10-7 “upset” you’ll ever get.
West Region
Upset 1: #11 Xavier over #6 Maryland
Both of these teams started out the season incredibly well but have since faltered. Xavier suffered a six-game losing streak during February while Maryland has lost six of its last ten entering the tournament. Xavier is definitely at a disadvantage after losing guard Edmund Sumner for the year. Maryland is led by a veteran guard who has a penchant for making big shots. But despite losing Sumner, their best guard, the Musketeers might have the guard most prone to win a game single-handedly in this game.
Maryland’s Melo Trimble can certainly shine, but the Terps’ team-oriented style of play can often limit his impact. It’s tough to see them changing that for their biggest game of the season. Trevon Bluiett, on the other hand, has free reign to go off. He has played great since Sumner’s injury, but his best game came with Sumner still healthy. Back in January against Cincinnati, Bluiett shot 9-11 from 3 and scored 40 points. If he gets even close to that hot again, Xavier will win. Even if he doesn’t, they will ride him and an otherwise efficient offense to a victory over an underwhelming Maryland squad. I don’t want Trimble’s great junior season to end like this, but it seems likely to happen.
Related: Updated 2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket
Upset 2: #14 Florida Gulf Coast over #3 Florida State
Dunk City! Who can forget when they took the nation by storm, dunking all over two-seed Georgetown for the upset a few years ago and going to the Sweet Sixteen? I certainly can’t. Dunk City will live on in history books regardless of what they do this year. That said, why not pick them to do it again? Don’t get me wrong, Florida State is a fantastic team. They had a stretch this season of six straight games against ranked teams and finished that 5-1. They are absolutely a legit team.
One thing FGCU does well for a mid-major is having good athleticism. But Florida State is one of the longest, biggest, most athletic teams in the country. Florida State should by no means lose this game. They have proven themselves to be great and overmatch the Eagles in just about every category. However. This. Is. Dunk City. (I know that last video is a few minutes long so you may have skipped it, but I promise you will enjoy it. What they did was incredible. Watch the video.) Jonathan Isaac is going to be a lottery pick, but not before he finds himself embarrassed at the hands of FGCU. Dwayne Bacon has been incredible this year, yet he too will be poster material. Pick Florida Gulf Coast. You won’t regret it.