The NCAA Tournament is a great chance to get introduced to the next crop of NBA stars. Here are a few below-the-radar prospects to keep your eyes on.
The term “sleepers” is very relative and thus requires an element of subjectivity. It can easily be argued that Josh Hart is a draft sleeper because he is outside the top 30 on basically every mainstream draft site, despite the fact everyone knows his name.
A different interpretation of sleeper could lead to the inclusion of someone like Sterling Brown, someone who nobody knows about and who might not be drafted but fills an NBA role at the next level. There is a wide area to operate here. The following list is composed of under the radar, higher upside potential draft picks that could either declare in 2017 or 2018.
5. De’Anthony Melton (USC)
At 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-8 wingspan, Melton is a swiss army knife 3-and-D-plus lead guard prospect, who impacts the game in multiple ways. His per-40 minute pace adjusted stats of 12.5 points, 7 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.9 steals, 1.4 blocks and 2.6 turnovers paint an excellent all-around picture of Melton’s contributions. He’s a fantastic defensive player who plays with competitive fire. He has the athleticism to contain dribble penetration, the length to contest shots and the coordination to amass chase down blocks. His off-ball instincts getting into passing lanes are also superb.
Offensively, Melton is a combo guard with surprising feel for his age, showing good vision and court sense on the move. He is a capable handler who can run a pick-and-roll and make reads out of that action. Melton’s biggest bugaboo is his shooting, where he’s only at 29 percent on 69 attempts this year 3-point attempts and 70.8 percent from the foul line on 106 attempts, neither of which are encouraging figures.
The likelihood is that Melton goes back to USC for his sophomore campaign to improve upon his shooting to vault his draft stock. But if USC wins their play-in game against Providence as expected, Melton has a fantastic opportunity against Shake Milton and the Mustangs on the docket to showcase his skill. DraftExpress already has Melton No. 18 overall in their 2018 mock draft, hinting at Melton’s upside. He’s definitely someone to monitor.
4. Bruce Brown (Miami)
Similar to Melton, Brown is a 6-foot-5 secondary handler with a 6-foot-9 wingspan who has good feel for the game and is an excellent defender. Unlike Melton, Brown is going on 21 years-old, an incredibly old freshman.
Brown’s offensive impact on games starts with his playmaking. He’s very comfortable for his age operating in pick-and-roll as both a finisher and facilitator. He is a very poor midrange shooter off the dribble but compensates with good burst to get to the basket and the body control to finish. Brown is a capable 3-point shooter off the catch, giving him some off-ball utility — shooting 34.8 percent on 92 3-point attempts this season and 74.8 percent from the line on 115 attempts.
Where Brown really makes his money is defensively, where his quickness, developed upper body strength and off-ball positioning makes his defensive game likely to transfer to the next level. He’s a bit undersized for a wing but compensates with superior strength and leverage.
There’s a good chance Brown returns to the Hurricanes for another year, but given his age and the fact Miami has a chance to play two high profile teams in the Spartans and Tar Heels to open tournament play, he might elect to head for the draft. His two-way game with his playmaking and defensive prowess makes him alluring at the next level, but he likely needs to shoot to be successful, a big question mark.
3. Zach Collins (Gonzaga)
Playing as the sixth man for the Bulldogs, Collins is easily the best prospect on a top-shelf Gonzaga team. Collins has the desirable unicorn intersection of rim protection (3.5 blocks per 40 minutes pace adjusted) and shooting (44.5 percent from 3 on only 18 attempts, but 75.4 percent from the foul line on 130 attempts). He’s a dual pick-and-roll threat to either pop for 3-pointers or dive to the rim for lobs, as he is armed with some explosiveness in space.
Collins is a very fluid and mobile athlete for his size, and while we don’t know his wingspan measurement he looks to have respectable length. You can do a lot with a coordinated fluid 7-footer who can shoot, block shots and who tries defensively, especially on the glass.
Collins isn’t without his weaknesses and question-marks. He’s not much of a passer, at least in his current role, and it’s hard to gauge whether or not his defense is real playing against a lot of reserves in the West Coast Conference primarily. He can really boost his stock in the tournament against superior front lines, and he’ll have a chance to do so with a deep tournament run.
2. Donovan Mitchell (Louisville)
Mitchell was a one of the best kept secrets in college basketball over the last two years largely because his shooting hadn’t caught up with his projectable form via the eye-test. In conference play however, Mitchell’s shooting skyrocketed, as he knocked down 52 of 130 3-pointers (40 percent) and 82.5 percent of his 63 free throws. Mitchell shoots an easy ball off the catch with simple mechanics and usually displays fantastic preparatory footwork catching on the hop. He’s not nearly as adept shooting off the bounce, and his efficiency has suffered due to shot selection in part. But as purely a catch-and-shoot player in a role with less usage, Mitchell projects on the higher end of defensive combo guards in that area.
At 6-foot-3 with a sturdy frame and 6-foot-9 wingspan, Mitchell is reminiscent of Marcus Smart as a kind of bully guard, possessing better shooting upside but not quite the outlier frame. Mitchell is a secondary handler capable of running a pick-and-roll or attacking against a bent defense, as his playmaking is underrated. He has good burst as a driver and some explosion to finish in space, but he’s not a good finisher in traffic as evidenced by his 2pt percentage.
Defensively, Mitchell’s low center of gravity and ability to leverage position aids his versatility guarding multiple positions on that end. He can get into opposing ball-handlers and apply pressure with his quick feet and use his frame to wear guys down. He needs to get better navigating screens but has the strength to do so without getting dislodged.
The Cardinals have a tough bracket to navigate, but a potential second round matchup with Cowboys’ lead guard Jawun Evans would really spotlight Mitchell’s defensive prowess. With a deep run Mitchell could easily be a top 20 pick in June.
1. Mikal Bridges (Villanova)
At 6-foot-7 and 210 pounds with almost a 7-foot-1 wingspan and some quick twitch athleticism, Bridges meets all the benchmarks from a tools standpoint for a modern NBA wing. Bridges’ calling card is his defense, where he has exceptional versatility to guard multiple positions, as he swings from checking bigger wings to guarding the point of attack against opposing point guards regularly. In the modern NBA game where two-way play and versatility reign, Bridges meets that desirable combination, and is still largely unheralded in draft circles despite that.
The hang-up for Bridges in his statistical profile is usage, as he doesn’t command a legitimate percentage of the Wildcats’ finishing possessions. He’s also not assertive in an offense that features Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson and Kris Jenkins, so there are concerns about if he will seize NBA minutes confidently from the off.
Despite that Bridges is just so efficient in the possessions he does use. He has a career 66.1 true shooting percentage in college, and has really improved his shooting his sophomore year, putting up 39.3 percent on 107 attempts 3-point and 90.6 percent from the line on 53 attempts. Pair that with his incredibly underrated slashing and ambidextrous finishing game at the rim and ball-mover mentality and he fits almost perfectly into a NBA roster as a true 3-and-D wing.
Next: 5 best NBA Draft prospects in the NCAA Tournament
Buttressing Bridges’ profile is his insane advanced stats profile, which includes a career 12.8 average Box Score Plus-Minus number. For all the prospects that are flying substantially under the radar, Bridges arguably possesses the greatest NBA upside as a prospect with his combination of positional size, athleticism, length and fit at the next level.
*Stats derived from Sports-reference.com and Draftexpress.com.