With the NCAA Tournament heading into the second weekend, we predict each game in the Sweet 16.
The 2017 NCAA Tournament has been as exciting and eventful as any in recent memory and that’s even without a ton of first-round upsets. The Sweet 16 has been set and after a crazy second round, anything is possible.
I mean, who could have seen upsets like Wisconsin over Villanova, South Carolina over Duke, Xavier over Florida State or Michigan over Louisville coming? If your bracket is busted, you’re definitely not alone. There’s still plenty of action to be had, but the tournament is drawing closer to crowning a champion.
We did our best to predict each game in the Sweet 16. Will there be any major upsets?
East Region — Wisconsin (8) vs. Florida (4)
Many people counted Wisconsin out once the NCAA Tournament brackets were revealed and the Badgers were given an eight-seed. However, they’ve proven to be vastly under-seeded, beating Virginia Tech in the first round and then pulling off the upset of the weekend against reigning national champion and No. 1 overall seed, Villanova.
The Badgers will take on a Florida team that limped into the tournament following two losses to Vanderbilt in the final weeks of the season. However, the Gators are playing like the team that showed up for the first few months of the year, beating East Tennessee State and then handling Virginia easily.
Florida is a very balanced team on the offensive side of the ball with no real go-to scorer. That’s not a bad thing, per say, but Wisconsin has a tremendous defense and the Badgers have been in this position before as the underdog who has a surprising amount of confidence.
Any time a No. 8 or No. 9 seed beats a No. 1 in the second round, they gain an unreal amount of confidence that’s hard to shake. Florida will feel the veteran leadership of the Badgers getting stronger after taking an early lead, clamping down on the defensive side of the ball.
Moreover, Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ will have big games down low for Wisconsin, but Florida will keep it close until the final seconds.
Final: Wisconsin 71, Florida 67
East Region — Baylor (3) vs. South Carolina (7)
Who saw this matchup coming? Baylor isn’t much of a surprise in the Sweet 16 although the Bears have been notorious for losing early in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. They survived a gritty New Mexico State team in the first round and then followed that up with a back-and-forth battle with USC, outlasting the Trojans.
On the other hand, South Carolina surprised some people with a first-round win over Marquette even though the Gamecocks were the higher seed. The SEC representative then took down No. 2 Duke in one of the bigger upsets of the weekend with an unbelievable second-half performance. Frank Martin has led the Gamecocks to their first Sweet 16 in school history.
Will that momentum from the improbable win over Duke work in the Gamecocks’ favor versus Baylor? It’s very possible, but the Gamecocks just don’t have anyone who could truly stop Johnathan Motley. Baylor’s big man will have a field day in the post, but senior guard Sindarius Thornwell will keep the game close.
Needing big buckets down the stretch, the Bears will just feed Motley down low and let him do the rest. Don’t be surprised if South Carolina’s bigs get in foul trouble early and are forced to play catch-up late.
Final: Baylor 77, South Carolina 69
Midwest Region — Kansas (1) vs. Purdue (4)
Kansas didn’t surprise anyone by making it to the Sweet 16. In fact, the Jayhawks were considered the national title favorite after Villanova was eliminated on Saturday in the second round. That wasn’t enough to please Bill Self. While his Jayhawks have lost in the first or second round five times in 14 seasons, he avoided that trend on Sunday with a 20-point win over Michigan State.
As for Purdue, the Boilermakers found themselves in quite the battle on Thursday against 13th-seeded Vermont. They pulled away late and earned a matchup with No. 4 Iowa State in the second round. The Boilermakers were up big, but allowed the Cyclones to get back into it before shutting the door and making it back to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010.
This is going to be one of the best games of the Sweet 16 not only because both of these teams have opposite strengths, but because they each have a Naismith Award finalist on the roster.
It’s going to come down to the play of Caleb Swanigan of Purdue and Frank Mason III of Kansas. The Boilermakers do have solid players around the sophomore big man, but he carries the load, for the most part. Kansas has proven that even if Mason III struggles, Josh Jackson and Devonte’ Graham will be there to pick up the slack.
Purdue gives Kansas all it can handle with the advantage down low, but the Jayhawks get the last laugh thanks to a huge three from Mason III in the final minute.
Final: Kansas 82, Purdue 79
Midwest Region — Oregon (3) vs. Michigan (7)
Oregon hasn’t made it look very easy, but the Ducks are headed to the Sweet 16. Losing Chris Boucher was a tough blow for this team that looked like a Final Four favorite a few weeks ago. However, the Ducks beat Iona in the first round and then had an impressive come-from-behind victory over Rhode Island in the round of 32.
Michigan, on the other hand, held off a tough Oklahoma State in the first round by just one point and then took down Louisville in a comeback effort as well. The Wolverines were under-seeded as a seven, but they are starting to play like a No. 5 or No. 4 seed, but it’s clear they are the hottest team in the tournament right now.
Not many people would have thought the Wolverines would be the scariest team in March just a few short weeks ago. However, they plowed through the Big Ten Tournament and are now just one win away from rematching either Purdue or facing Kansas with a chance to go to the Final Four.
Oregon has something to prove as well. The Ducks were a No. 1 seed last year, but came just short of their goals. While Boucher is a tough loss, Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks are two of the best the Pac-12 has to offer. This game will be a high-scoring affair and you can bet it will be a back-and-forth one, too.
In the end, Derrick Walton Jr. and Mo Wagner will be too much for Oregon to handle.
Final: Oregon 81, Michigan 82
South Region — North Carolina (1) vs. Butler (4)
There’s a reason North Carolina has become the favorite to win the national title with losses to Villanova and Kansas and it’s the endless well of talent on the roster. Texas Southern couldn’t compete with the Tar Heels in round one, but Arkansas made them sweat it out a bit in the second round, taking the Tar Heels down to the wire before a game-clinching 12-0 run.
Butler, on the other hand, was tasked with Winthrop in the first round which turned out to be no issue, but the Bulldogs then had to face the most feared cinderella in the past two seasons in No. 12 Middle Tennessee. The Bulldogs had very little trouble dispatching the Blue Raiders, moving on to the Sweet 16 for the first time since Brad Stevens left.
Facing one of the most explosive teams in the country won’t be easy for the Bulldogs who aren’t exactly a top-tier team when it comes to scoring, defense or rebounding. They’re going to need a big game from junior forward Kelan Martin like the one he had against Middle Tennessee. He will need to be a force down low for the Bulldogs.
However, the Tar Heels are just too strong, fast and deep for the Bulldogs. This one is going to come down to who can create the pace for the game and the Tar Heels are just going to run and gun, finishing with another 80-point performance while Joel Berry II’s ankle looks healthier.
Final: North Carolina 81, Butler 70
South Region — UCLA (3) vs. Kentucky (2)
How did UCLA get here? The Bruins had no issue with Kent State in the first round and then pulled away late against Cincinnati to head to the Sweet 16. This might just be Steve Alford’s best team since taking over at UCLA.
The Bruins will get the SEC’s top team, the Kentucky Wildcats. John Calipari’s team was expected to be dominant this season with a slew of talented freshmen yet again, but it wasn’t quite that imposing. They had a tough time putting away Western Kentucky in the first round and then Wichita State gave them problems in the second round as well.
This will be one of those games that is talked about for weeks and the winner of this matchup is going to give the winner of the North Carolina vs. Butler game some issues. Kentucky and UCLA matched up earlier in the season and the Bruins came out on top with a five-point victory. Will the same happen in this one?
Lonzo Ball may be the top player in the country, but he will be matched up with guys like De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk and both of those guys are explosive scorers. The Bruins do have more than just Ball, like TJ Leaf, Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton and Aaron Holiday, but this game is going to come down to which team can get the most stops and UCLA’s defense is just not good enough.
Monk is going to have a huge game for the Wildcats while Fox will add 15 points and Bam Adebayo will have a nice showing in the post. UCLA won’t go down that easily, though, as Ball will record a triple-double, but a costly turnover late seals the deal. Kentucky gets revenge.
Final: UCLA 82, Kentucky 84
West Region — Gonzaga (1) vs. West Virginia (4)
Everyone thought Gonzaga was the weakest of the No. 1 seeds, but the Bulldogs are one of three left in the Sweet 16. They zoomed past South Dakota State in the first round after a sluggish start to the game and then took on a Northwestern team that was in its first ever NCAA Tournament. Gonzaga led big at halftime, but Northwestern made it close before the Bulldogs put the game away for good.
West Virginia was matched up with No. 13 seed Bucknell in round one and it seemed like a contest that may surprise some people. The Mountaineers won by just six points, moving on to face No. 5 seed Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish were ice-cold from the floor, allowing West Virginia to run away with a big win and punch its ticket to the Sweet 16.
If you’ve slept on Gonzaga, you’re not alone. The Bulldogs play in a mediocre conference but finished the year with just one loss. Mark Few has built the program into a perennial contender. However, their first two wins weren’t all that impressive.
Conversely, the Mountaineers have been Big 12 battle-tested all season long and just took down one of the top teams from the ACC rather easily. They’re going to have the momentum coming into this one and if they can contain Przemek Karnowski in the post, they will come out on top — and that’s exactly what I think will happen.
Final: Gonzaga 68, West Virginia 72
West Region — Xavier (11) vs. Arizona (2)
If you’re Xavier, getting to the Sweet 16 this season should come as no surprise. The Musketeers began the year as a Top 25 team and it looks like, at one point, they would be a Final Four contender. That is coming to fruition now after beating Maryland in the first round and then demolishing No. 3 Florida State in the round of 32.
The No. 11 seed will take on the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats who have been gradually improving all season long. The Wildcats scored 100 points in a first-round win over North Dakota and then followed that up with a grind-it-out victory over Saint Mary’s. This team is a popular pick to make it to the Final Four from the West.
Arizona’s offense is slightly more explosive than Xavier’s and that will be the difference in this one. While Trevon Bluiett is one of the most underrated players in the country and will have a monster game with 25 points, I think the Wildcats will just have too much firepower for the Musketeers to overcome.
Next: West Virginia's improved offense foretells its potential Sweet 16 redemption
Sean Miller’s team will get tested early on and take a two-point lead into the half before coming out in the final 20 minutes red-hot. Lauri Markkanen is going to give Xavier fits as its cinderella run comes to an end.
Final: Xavier 73, Arizona 83