With the regular season just around the corner, we dive deep to find 30 MLB breakout candidates for 2017.
It’s that time of year. Spring Training is winding down, the World Baseball Classic has come to an end, and each of the 30 major league clubs is ready to head north to begin another long season.
They say hope spring eternal this time of year – and that saying doesn’t apply to just playoff hopes. The beginning of April is also an opportunity for players to start the season on the right foot, and potentially build momentum for a breakout performance.
As we look ahead to the 2017 season, we’ve selected 30 players – one from each MLB franchise – with the potential to do big things. Many of the names on our list have been top prospects throughout their pro careers, but breakout performers can come from anywhere: Triple-A, the Rule 5 Draft, the 60-day DL, the end of the bench, the KBO.
Some, like Byron Buxton, were no-brainers. Others are more under the radar, including a couple of players that aren’t even starters yet. But, don’t let the long shots fool you: few predicted Sandy Leon would break out and become a key contributor for the Boston Red Sox last season, or that Adam Duvall would bash 33 home runs for the Reds.
In addition to our breakout pick, we’ve also made note of other players to watch. At the end of each of the following pages, we offer another name to know – a player with similar breakout potential – as well as one name to keep in mind for the future – often a prospect, but sometimes an under-the-radar player that could shine if given the right opportunity this season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Robbie Ray
The 2016 season was a disaster for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and one of the biggest reasons was a pitching staff that posted a collective 5.09 ERA – the worst in baseball. The D-Backs also allowed the most runs in the major leagues (890), had the worst WHIP (1.492) and ranked next to last in walks per nine innings (3.7).
However, despite a rocky road, Robbie Ray took a big step forward in his third big league season, his first full season in Arizona. In 174.1 innings across 32 starts, Ray posted a 4.90 ERA and 3.76 FIP (which suggests he pitched better than his high ERA would indicate, as does the .352 BABIP he surrendered).
With a fastball that sits in the mid 90s, the left-hander has the ability to blow hitters away, and he often did. Ray struck out 218 hitters last season, giving him the majors’ third best rate of 11.3 strikeouts per nine innings and an impressive 28.1 percent strikeout rate.
However, in order to break out in 2017, Ray must show better command. The 25-year old walked 9.2 percent of the hitters he faced last season and that wildness led to high pitch counts. As a result, Ray lasted fewer than 5.5 innings per start on average. He walked 71 hitters in all, and also surrendered 185 hits and 24 home runs.
A three-win player last season, Ray has the fastball velocity (94.1 miles per hour on average and a max of 98, according to PITCHF/x data) and secondary stuff to be one of the top left-handed starters in the American League. But he’ll need to harness that talent, and attack hitters in order to pitch deeper into games.
Another Name to Know: SP Taijuan Walker
One More for the Future: SS Ketel Marte
Atlanta Braves
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: RP Mauricio Cabrera
Speaking of hard-throwing breakout candidates, Mauricio Cabrera regularly tops 100 miles per hour with his fastball. In fact, he averaged 100 on the radar gun when throwing his fastball in 2016 according to PITCHf/x data, and topped out at 103.5. That’s Aroldis Chapman territory.
With his velocity alone, Cabrera has the look of a future closer. He was also effective for the Braves last season. In 41 appearances as a 22-year old, Cabrera posted a 5-1 record with a 2.82 ERA and 32 strikeouts across 38.1 innings. The right-hander also saved six games.
Cabrera limited opposing hitters to a .225 batting average and .268 slugging percentage, and didn’t surrender a home run all season, all of which are all good signs for 2017 and beyond. One would expect Cabrera to strike out more than 19.8 percent of the hitters he faces, and he often did in the minor leagues, which is also a reason to be optimistic about the future.
The biggest knock on Cabrera to date is wildness. He walked 11.7 percent of the hitters he faced as a rookie – which is far, far too many for a pitcher expected to handle high-pressure situations. And unfortunately, Cabrera has struggled with his command this spring.
According to Mark Boman of MLB.com, Braves manager Brian Snitker said the flame thrower has been showing mechanical issues in games that could hurt his standing in Atlanta’s Opening Day bullpen.
Jim Johnson is expected to begin the season as the Braves closer, and Arodys Vizcaino has a leg up on the setup role and would slide into the ninth inning job should something happen to Johnson. But, given his unique fastball velocity, if Cabrera can improve his command, he’ll play a big role for the rebuilding Braves.
Another Name to Know: SS Dansby Swanson
One More for the Future: 2B Ozzie Albies
Baltimore Orioles
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Dylan Bundy
It’s hard to believe given the fact he made his major league debut in 2012, but Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy is just 24 years old. Because he was out of options dating back to that 2012 call up, Baltimore was forced to keep Bundy on the big league roster last year, and stashed him in the bullpen coming out of spring training.
Bundy didn’t last that long in the pen though. Through July 6, he posted a 3.08 ERA in 38 innings spread across 22 games. He allowed 46 hits, and a .305 batting average, but also struck out 32 hitters and pitched well enough to join the rotation when the O’s needed an extra starter.
In 14 starts through the end of the season, Bundy posted a less than thrilling 4.52 ERA (which pushed his season total to 4.02). However, he struck out 72 hitters in 71.2 innings – a better rate than in the bullpen – and also limited opposing hitters to a far better .231 batting average.
Bundy missed all of 2013 due to Tommy John surgery, and pitched just 31.1 innings spread between Low-A and High-A in 2014. He pitched only 22 innings in Double-A in 2015. Given his history of injuries, the 190.2 innings Bundy managed for Baltimore last year was a terrific sign.
Bundy will begin 2017 in the starting rotation, and as a former top prospect, he has the talent to stay there. With Chris Tillman expected to miss Opening Day due to injury, and inconsistent Wade Miley and Ubaldo Jimenez expected to round out the rotation, Bundy should have every opportunity to shine in 2017 if he can stay healthy.
Another Name to Know: C Caleb Joseph
One More for the Future: 1B/DH Trey Mancini
Boston Red Sox
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: LF Andrew Benintendi
It’s not usually a great idea to tab a rookie as a breakout performer. It usually takes time for a player to adjust to life in the big leagues, no matter how talented he is. Hitters especially experience growing pains when adjusting to seeing the best pitchers on the planet day in and day out.
Nevertheless, like last year’s NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, who finished third in the MVP vote, Red Sox top prospect Andrew Benintendi is capable of big things in 2017.
Benintendi saw his first major league action on August 2 last season, and quickly became the every day left fielder in Boston. A sweet-swinging left-handed hitter, Benintendi hit .295/.359/.476 primarily out of the No. 9 hole in the lineup. He hit two home runs, drove in 14 runs and scored 16. Though he was just 21, Benintendi also wasn’t intimidated in the postseason, and went 3-for-9 with a home run in three games against the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS.
It would be silly to expect Benintendi to have as big an impact in his first full major league season as Seager did. However, there is plenty of reason to expect him to be a heavily relied upon piece of the Red Sox lineup in 2017. After all, the club must replace legendary DH David Ortiz, and will need run producers if it hopes to repeat as the top scoring team in baseball.
In fact, according to Ian Browne of MLB.com, it might be Benintendi that slides into the three hole in the Boston batting order that Ortiz manned down the stretch for the Red Sox last season. If he does hit third, as a rookie with heavy hitters like Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroria hitting around him, Benintendi should see plenty of good pitches to hit.
Another Name to Know: 1B Mitch Moreland
One More for the Future: RP Joe Kelly
Chicago Cubs
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: CF Albert Almora, Jr.
Calling slugging outfielder and part-time catcher Kyle Schwarber a breakout performer seems too easy. After all, Schwarber hit .246/.355/.487 with 16 homers in 69 games as a rookie, and despite missing almost all of the 2016 regular season with a knee injury, returned to collect seven hits in the World Series. That’s pretty breakout-y already.
Addison Russell would also be a candidate, but he too came up big in the Fall Classic with a clutch home run in Game 6, and is already a well-known piece of the Cubs lineup. In fact, Russell received NL MVP votes in 2016. Javier Baez and Willson Contreras are also short of their major league ceilings, but both are well-known commodities as well.
Instead, it’s Albert Almora, Jr. that gets the nod as our 2017 breakout performer. With 2016 leadoff hitter and center fielder Dexter Fowler signing with the rival Cardinals over the winter, Almora is the most likely candidate to take over on an everyday basis.
A Gold Glove caliber defender, Almora also showed some good signs at the plate in his first big league action. He’s a free swinger that doesn’t walk much (he only earned five free passes in 117 plate appearances), but Almora made enough contact to keep his strikeout rate down to a respectable 17.1 percent. Overall, the 22-year old (he turns 23 in April) hit .277/.308/.455 with nine doubles, one triple, three home runs and 14 RBI in 47 games. He also scored what would be the historic winning run in Game 7 of the World Series.
As long as he maintains his great defense in center, there won’t be a ton of pressure on Almora to produce offensively in 2017. He’s likely to hit eighth or ninth in the batting order most games (since manager Joe Maddon often likes to hit his pitcher No. 8 in the order), but given the potency of the Cubs lineup, Almora should still have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs.
Another Name to Know: LF Kyle Schwarber
One More for the Future: RP Carl Edwards, Jr.
Chicago White Sox
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SS Tim Anderson
With the White Sox on the brink of a full-blown rebuild following the Adam Eaton and Chris Sale trades, several players will have opportunities to break out in Chicago. Shortstop Tim Anderson might not just break out, though; the 23-year old might become the new face of the franchise.
Anderson hit .283/.306/.432 with nine home runs, 22 doubles, six triples and 10 stolen bases in 99 games as a rookie in 2016. It was a strong enough debut for the White Sox front office to give the Alabama native a six-year, $25 million contract extension during spring training.
The No. 17 overall pick in the 2013 draft, Anderson moved quickly through the White Sox system because of his talent and athleticism, but he still has some work to do to become a great all around player. A slap hitter with speed, he hit leadoff in June and July before bouncing back and forth between No. 1 and No. 2 in the order the rest of the season. Given a table-setting role, Anderson will need to get on base more often.
Last year, Anderson walked just 13 times in 431 plate appearances – a dreadful 3.0 percent for a top of the order player. He also struck out far too often (27.1 percent), something he showed progress limiting over the course of his four years in the minors that spiked again with his first big league action.
With Sale and Eaton already gone, and just about every other veteran on the roster a candidate to be traded by August, Anderson should be one of the centerpieces of the roster rebuild on the south side. And, given his new contract, it’s clear that Chicago will give him every opportunity to break out in 2017.
Another Name to Know: CF Charlie Tilson
One More for the Future: 2B Yoan Moncada
Cincinnati Reds
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: Brandon Finnegan
No matter how good he becomes as a major league pitcher, Brandon Finnegan is likely to always be a trivia answer. For those that don’t remember, Finnegan was a first round draft pick out of TCU by Kansas City in 2014, and after pitching for the Horned Frogs in the College World Series that season, he went on to blow through the minors to become a key member of the Royals bullpen in the big league World Series that same year.
It didn’t go so well (five earned runs in 1.2 innings in two games, including the loss in Game 4 against the Giants), but it was still a fun and impressive feat as Finnegan was the first player to play in the CWS and the Fall Classic in the same season.
In 2015, after a second partial season in the Kansas City bullpen, Finnegan was traded to Cincinnati where he moved back to a familiar starting role. In his first full season with the Reds last year, the lefty posted a 10-11 record with a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts. Soon to be 24 years old, Finnegan still has some work to do limiting home runs (he surrendered 29 last season), but he limited opposing hitters to 150 hits in 172 innings and struck out 145.
Finnegan also got better as the season wore on, which was a huge boost of confidence given the questions surrounding his durability earlier in his career. In 11 starts from July 29 through the end of the season, Finnegan was 5-3 with a 2.23 ERA with 64 strikeouts in 60.2 innings. The sinkerballer also held opponents to a .211 average over that stretch, and he didn’t allow a single homer over his final three starts.
With the Reds in the midst of a rebuild, and fellow starter Anthony DeSclafani dealing with a UCL sprain, Finnegan has an opportunity to establish himself as the team’s ace in 2017.
Another Name to Know: IF/OF Jose Peraza
One More for the Future: P Robert Stephenson
Cleveland Indians
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: C Roberto Perez
The Cleveland Indians were great in 2016. As a team, the Indians hit .262/.329/.430 and scored 777 runs, second most in the American League. The club’s potent offense was a driving force for the eventual American League pennant winners, and nearly ended a World Championship drought that dates back to 1948.
However, there was a glaring weak spot in the order: whoever happened to be catching. Cleveland’s primary backstops, Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez, hit .167 and .183, respectively in 2016, and combined for just 12 home runs and 51 RBI. Gomes, who missed time with shoulder and wrist injuries, is the No. 1 catcher on the team’s depth chart again heading into Opening Day. But, Perez is not only capable of overtaking Gomes for the primary catching job, he could take huge step forward as an all-around player in 2017.
It’s important to never place too much emphasis on a single month’s performance, much less a single game, but what Perez did in Game 1 of the World Series was magical. After hitting just three home runs in the regular season, Perez hit two against the Cubs in the opening game of the Fall Classic. The 28-year old also called a great game behind the plate as the Indians shut out Chicago 6-0.
It also may seem strange to tab a backup catcher as a potential breakout performer. Nevertheless, Perez showed a glimpse of the player he can be both offensively and defensively, and is likely to have many opportunities to prove he can do it over the course of a full season as he splits catching duties with the oft-injured Gomes. And, Perez showed signs of progress late in the regular season as well – particularly his last 20 games in which he hit .250/.310/.385 with a homer.
If injury strikes Gomes again, or Perez wrestles the job away from him with solid play, a breakout similar to Sandy Leon’s 2016 campaign with Boston is possible.
Another Name to Know: CF Tyler Naquin
One More for the Future: CF Bradley Zimmer
Colorado Rockies
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Jon Gray
The Colorado Rockies are a trendy pick to be a breakout team in the National League in 2017. However, the injury bug hit prized free agent signing Ian Desmond this spring, and top starter Chad Bettis is out indefinitely as he undergoes chemotherapy and recovery for testicular cancer.
With Bettis on the shelf, expectations high for the club as a whole, and pitching is always an issue at Coors Field. That means the pressure is on for young starter Jon Gray to step up and become the ace of the staff in 2017. Fortunately, he’s quite capable of it.
The No. 3 overall selection in the 2013 MLB draft, Gray reached Colorado for a nine-start stint in 2015, and established himself as a permanent member of the starting rotation in 2016. In 29 starts as s a rookie last year, Gray posted a mediocre 4.61 ERA, but that was misleading. The hard-throwing right-hander posted a 3.60 FIP and held opposing hitters to a modest .243 /.317/.386 slash. He surrendered 18 home runs, but just 153 hits in 168 innings, and struck out 185 hitters – good for a strong 26 percent strikeout rate.
He’s got great velocity (he averaged 95.0 miles per hour with his fastball and hit 98.7), and pairs it with a swing-and-miss slider and improving change up, which should put him in a good place to combat the thin air at home.
However, Gray was inconsistent in 2016. For instance, in the month of September, he was 1-4 with a 5.52 ERA in 29.1 innings across five starts. But, on September 17, the 25-year old tossed a brilliant four-hit shutout against the Padres that included 16 strikeouts – offering a glimpse of Gray’s true talent.
Given the issues already facing the Colorado pitching staff, the Rockies need Gray to break out in 2017. If Gray fulfills his potential, the Rockies themselves should break out and challenge for a Wild Card spot.
Another Name to Know: C Tony Wolters
One More for the Future: SP Jeff Hoffman
Detroit Tigers
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Daniel Norris
Like Brandon Finnegan and his double World Series-related trivia, Daniel Norris may have a hard time overcoming what has become his most recognizable feat to date: living in his van. But, also like Finnegan, Norris is a talented young left-handed pitcher that could soon become a top-of-the-rotation starter.
The Tigers picked up Norris from the Blue Jays in 2015, and though he posted a solid 3.68 ERA in eight starts in Detroit, he began 2016 in the minors. Norris didn’t put up great numbers at Triple-A Toledo, but earned a one-game call up in May and joined the rotation for a short stint in June before sticking in August.
Over his final 10 starts, Norris posted a 3-2 record (and the Tigers won six of those games) with a 3.04 ERA and 55 strikeouts in 56.1 innings. That impressive stretch included a 29.2-inning period in September in which he fanned 38 hitters and posted a 2.73 ERA and .223 opponent batting average.
Nagging oblique injury aside, Norris has been quite consistent in the majors to date. Norris is 7-4 in parts of three major league seasons, with a 3.64 career ERA. He’s also tossed a combined 150 innings or more between the minors and the big leagues in each of the past two seasons, which shows durability – something the Tigers needed in 2016.
With big-name and high-priced starters Justin Verlander and Justin Zimmermann atop the rotation and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer taking the first three spots in the starting rotation entering the season, Norris will have to settle for a spot in the back end to begin 2017. But, don’t be shocked if he pitches far better than a No. 4 starter in what should be his first full big league season.
Another Name to Know: C James McCann
One More for the Future: RP Joe Jimenez
Houston Astros
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Lance McCullers, Jr.
Most of the players on our list thus far are talented youngsters that have yet to fully establish themselves as major league starters. The Houston Astros have a player that fits that mold perfectly in Alex Bergman – the 23-year old former first round pick expected to be the everyday third baseman. On the other end of the spectrum, 33-year old Yuli Gurriel, the Cuban first baseman that hit .262/.292/.385 in his first big league action last season, would also be a fair choice.
But, if there’s one player on the Astros roster that could explode onto the national scene – and potentially even the Cy Young Award race – in 2017, it’s Lance McCullers, Jr.
Despite seeing major league action in 2015, McCullers didn’t make his first big league start until May last season. He was limited to 14 starts because of an elbow discomfort issue that ended his season in early August, but McCullers was nevertheless stellar as a 22-year old. In 81 innings, the hard-throwing right-hander with the dominating curveball posted a 3.22 ERA and struck out 106 hitters: 30.1 percent of the 352 batters he faced.
Such a strikeout rate would be excellent for a closer, and would have ranked third behind Jose Fernandez and Max Scherzer had he pitched among innings to qualify for the major league leaderboard. Among all big league pitchers that threw at least 50 innings in 2016, McCullers ranked No. 27.
McCullers has nasty stuff, but it is worth noting that he was often wild and walked 12.8 percent of the hitters he faced, which was more than all major league pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched last season. Also, he exited a spring training game in mid-March with a minor foot injury. However, the skin irritation McCullers experienced isn’t expected to carry over into the regular season.
Another Name to Know: 1B Yuli Gurriel
One More for the Future: 3B Alex Bregman
Kansas City Royals
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: RF Jorge Soler
The Kansas City Royals know a thing or two about breakout performances. After all, the club’s steady rise from cellar dweller to World Series champion relied heavily on a young and talented core of homegrown players reaching their full potential. But, following a disappointing .500 season, the franchise enters a transition year that could end with another rebuild.
As the team attempts to avoid a losing record and make one more push for the postseason before Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain enter free agency, they will be looking for an outsider to breakout and propel the lineup to new run-scoring heights.
Jorge Soler joined the Royals after an offseason trade with the Chicago Cubs, and is expected to take over the everyday duties in right field this season. Assuming he can shake off the hamstring injuries that hamstrung him thus far in his pro career, Soler could reach his overall big league production to date: a .258/.328/.434 slash with 27 home runs and 98 RBI spread across parts of three seasons.
Last year, Soler hit .238/.333/.436 with a career high 12 home runs and added 31 RBI. He showed improved plate discipline as well, including a 11.7 percent walk rate (compared to 7.9 percent in 2015) and a 25 percent strikeout rate (still too high, but five percentage points lower than he posted in 101 games the previous year).
Soler has scuffled this spring, and his timing has been the biggest issue, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. But, given a chance to play every day in KC, the 25-year old Soler has a great opportunity to break through and reach the potential the Cubs saw when they gave him $30 million back in 2012.
Another Name to Know: DH/OF/C Peter O’Brien
One More for the Future: 3B Hunter Dozier
Los Angeles Angels
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: RP Cam Bedrosian
Over the last five years, the Los Angeles Angels have struggled to build a consistent winning team around all-world standout Mike Trout. The Angels have won only one AL West title and have been to just one postseason with the best baseball player on the planet on their roster. Last season, the Angels allowed 727 runs – the fourth most in the league, and second most of any Trout era Angels team.
But Cam Bedrosian did his part. In 45 games, Bedrosian posted a 1.12 ERA with 51 strikeouts in 40.1 innings. The son of 1987 Cy Young Award winner Steve Bedrosian, Cam held opposing hitters to a .207/.284/.248 slash, and allowed just 6.69 hits per nine innings. He posted a career high 31.5 percent strikeout rate and a career low 8.6 percent walk rate while establishing himself as a solid setup man.
Some might say Bedrosian had a breakout performance in 2016, but there’s a far higher ceiling for the right-hander in 2017 and beyond. On August 2, Bedrosian recorded his first, and to date, his only, big league save. He blew an opportunity for No. 2 and didn’t pitch again after going on the DL with what was later diagnosed as a blood clot in his pitching arm. But, Bedrosian is healthy again and poised to begin 2017 as closer with veteran Huston Street expected to start the season on the shelf.
With a fastball that averaged 95.2 miles per hour and touched 97.8 last season, plus a swing-and-miss-slider, Bedrosian has closer stuff and could take the job permanently from the 33-year old Street. He’s also off to an unhittable start to the spring (zero runs allowed and six strikeouts in five innings), and is capable of carrying that momentum into the season.
Another Name to Know: C Martin Maldanado
One More for the Future: C Carlos Perez
Los Angeles Dodgers
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: 2B Logan Forsythe
Players that finish third in the MVP vote aren’t eligible to become breakout players the following season – no matter how young they are. That means Corey Seager is ineligible. Electric left-hander Julio Urias is certainly a name to watch. But the 20-year old faces a veteran logjam in the starting rotation, and with the club watching his workload very closely in 2017, he might begin the season in the bullpen, or possibly even the minors. Yasiel Puig is always a wild card, and could break out again after two disappointing seasons, but there’s already been plenty written about Puig and his limitless potential over the years.
That leaves us with Logan Forsythe, the recent acquisition believed to be the second choice behind Twins second baseman Brian Dozier as a trade target over the winter. Given his age (30), and the fact that he’s on his third big league organization, Forsythe is not a sexy prospect. No matter, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs pointed out shortly after the deal in January, Forsythe actually compares quite well to Dozier, who broke out with an AL second baseman record 42 home runs as a 29-year old last season.
Last year with the Rays, Forsythe hit .264/.333/.444 with a career high 20 home runs. He spent the entire year hitting leadoff in Tampa Bay, but managed to drive in 52 runs in 127 games.
While he may not make the jump to 40 homers like Dozier, Forsythe is a good contact hitter that is capable of hitting anywhere in the lineup. He’ll also have much more protection in the LA lineup than Dozier given the Dodgers solid roster, so there won’t be much pressure to be a run producer. Of course, just because there isn’t pressure doesn’t mean a player can’t become a star.
Another Name to Know: SP Julio Urias
One More for the Future: 1B Cody Bellinger
Miami Marlins
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: 1B Justin Bour
Christian Yelich would make a solid case for becoming a breakout player in 2017. But the fact of the matter is, despite being one of the most underrated players in baseball, Yelich is already a highly respected hitter for the Marlins, and his .298/.376/.483 slash, 21-homer and 98-RBI performance last season is the stuff breakouts are made of.
Instead, let’s focus on first baseman Justin Bour. Ichiro’s most famous teammate almost became a true breakout player in 2015, when the first baseman slugged 23 home runs and drove in 73 RBI. Bour was held to 15 long balls and 51 RBI while being limited to 90 games because of a sprained ankle in 2016. Though he posted an almost identical slash (.264/.349/.475) compared to 2015 (.262/.321/.479). Our also cut his strikeout rate from 22.6 percent to 17.4 and increased his walk rate from 7.6 percent to 11.8.
If Bour can stay healthy, he’s capable of 30 or more home runs. Paired with Yelich, star Giancarlo Stanton, and powerful Marcell Ozuna, Bour and the Marlins could light up scoreboards in 2017. They’ll probably need to outslug opponents to have any hope of reaching the postseason.
Because the tragic death of superstar starter Jose Fernandez last year, the Marlins aren’t likely to put up great pitching numbers in 2017. The club still expects to compete in the NL East, but to do so Miami will need to win a few slugfests. A breakout performance from Bour would be a huge help.
Another Name to Know: C J.T. Realmuto
One More for the Future: RP Kyle Barraclough
Milwaukee Brewers
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: CF Keon Broxton
The Milwaukee Brewers might not be very good in 2017, but they should be a fun team to watch. Breakout candidates abound with high upside players like shortstop Orlando Arcia, outfielder Domingo Santana, and starter Zach Davies, as well as speedsters Jonathan Villar and Hernan Perez, and corner infield sluggers Travis Shaw and Eric Thames (himself one of the most interesting hitters in baseball given his return from a spectacular stint in Korea).
But arguably the most exciting player on the roster is outfielder Keon Broxton. He’s far from a perfect player: A 36.1 percent strikeout would be damning for a slugger the likes of Kris Bryant, Khris Davis, Chris Davis or Chris Carter. In fact, Broxton’s strikeout rate was higher than all four 38-plus homer Kris/Khris/Chris’ – and every one else with more than 240 big league plate appearances last season.
Broxton struggled early and often in 2016, and was demoted to Triple-A twice. His .242/.354/.430 slash was also inflated by an incredibly high .373 BABIP, which means he definitely benefitted from some luck in the hit column. However, Broxton closed incredibly strong with a .311/.380/.556 September stretch that included three homers in 13 games.
Still, Broxton has the patient approach of a leadoff hitter, which is where Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell penciled him in six times in 2016 – including his final game of the season, in which Broxton suffered a broken arm. And with a 14.8 percent walk rate last season, Counsell would probably prefer to place him atop the order more in the future.
A very good defensive center fielder, Broxton covers a lot of ground with his great speed, which of course also contributed to his 23 stolen bases in 27 attempts last season. He also hits the ball consistently hard, and connected for nine home runs in 75 games as a 26-year old last season.
In other words, in a group of exciting young players, Broxton has the most tools in his tool bag. If he can put them all together in 2017, he could become a household name.
Another Name to Know: 1B Eric Thames
One More for the Future: SS Orlando Arcia
Minnesota Twins
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: CF Byron Buxton
Now that the Chicago Cubs have won the World Series, will the term “wait ‘til next year” be used to describe Byron Buxton’s breakout potential?
Considered among the top prospects in all of baseball every year after being selected No. 2 in the 2012 draft, Buxton is a potential five-tool player that has yet to live up to the hype. He has a .220/.274/.398 career slash and has struck out in a staggering 34.5 percent of his plate appearances to date.
Of course, Buxton has appeared in just 138 major league games split across two seasons, and he is just 23 years old – so it’s far too early to throw around words like “bust.” Plus, there is plenty of optimism to believe “this is the year.”
Following an August demotion back to Triple-A, Buxton returned to the Twins September 1 and went on a red-hot tear that included nine home runs in his final 29 games. Given the fact he had just one homer in 63 major league games earlier that season and just three prior career long balls in the big leagues, a September power surge was a huge boost of confidence.
Buxton offers more that just raw power at the plate. He is one of the fastest players in the game, and plays center field as well as anyone on the planet. Once his offense comes around – particularly his plate discipline – Buxton is sure to be one of Major League Baseball’s brightest stars
One More for the Future: SP Jose Berrios
New York Mets
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: Steven Matz
The New York Mets have been to the postseason two years in a row thanks in large part to one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Headlined by Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and the ageless Bartolo Colon (who now pitches for the Braves), the Mets held opponents to just 617 runs in 2016, which was the third best total in the big leagues.
Young lefty Steven Matz also played a roll in that success to the tune of a 3.40 ERA and 3.39 FIP in 22 starts as a rookie before surgery eventually ended his season in August. Matz struck out 129 hitters and allowed 129 hits with just 31 walks in 132.1 innings. Overall, Matz posted 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.1 walks per nine, both of which were a touch better than deGrom and easily better than Harvey. Matz also might have been much better had he not been battling bone spurs in his elbow all season, which later contributed to shoulder issues.
From April 17 to July 29, Matz was at his best. Across 18 starts, the 26-year old was 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 111.1 innings. In his final start on August 14, Matz pitched 7.1 scoreless innings. It was one of six starts in which Matz held the opposing lineup scoreless through at least six innings.
Like the aforementioned Daniel Norris, Matz has the benefit of pitching in a strong, deep rotation, which will help ease any pressure to be an ace that might come for a similarly talented pitcher on a worse staff. And, like Norris, a healthy full season in the big leagues would likely mean a true break out performance.
Another Name to Know: SP Robert Gsellman
One More for the Future: OF Brandon Nimmo
New York Yankees
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: Greg Bird
It’s a new era of Yankees baseball, and there’s an exciting young group of players capable of building New York’s next dynasty. Well, maybe just New York’s next playoff team.
First baseman Greg Bird is on of several talented players expected to see significant playing time in 2017. Bird missed all of 2016 due to shoulder surgery, but the retirement of Mark Teixeira and a strong rookie performance in 2015 means the 24-year old slugger won’t have to compete for the everyday job.
In 2015, Bird launched 11 home runs in 178 plate appearances. He hit .261/.343/.529 across 46 games, including nine doubles, drove in 31 runs and scored 26 with a 137 wRC+.
Recently, Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs ran the numbers on Bird’s exit velocity, launch angle and contact rate for Bird’s 2015 season and found a set of players he compared to, which includes superstars Kris Bryant and Andrew McCutchen, as well as 2016 AL home run champ Mark Trumbo, NL MVP candidate Freddie Freeman, sluggers Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez and Adam Duvall, and fellow young studs like Trevor Story and Kyle Schwarber.
Bird also hasn’t shown any rust from missing a year. Through his first 50 plate appearances this spring, the left-handed hitter amassed a dominant .429/.500/.971 slash with six home runs, seven doubles, a triple, 11 RBI and nine runs scored. It’s important not to get too worked up about a small sample of spring training stats, but Bird has been so hot there’s plenty of reason to be confident he will be one of the Yankees top run producers in 2017.
Another Name to Know: RF Aaron Judge
One More for the Future: SS Gleyber Torres
Oakland Athletics
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: Kendall Graveman
Most of the pitchers on this list have high velocity fastballs and high strikeout totals. On a personal note, I’m a sucker for a 100-mile an hour heater and swing-and-miss secondary stuff. However, there is something to like about sinkerballer Kendall Graveman, who could become the new ace of the Oakland A’s in 2017.
Graveman is a contact pitcher that has a 51.3 percent groundball rate over the past two seasons. Naturally, his 14.5 percent strikeout is more than five percent below the big league average. Overall, Graveman was 10-11 with a 4.11 ERA in 186 innings. He struck out 108 hitters and walked 47.
It’s important to note that Graveman’s numbers might have been better with a different defensive behind him (despite a 4.39 FIP higher than his ERA, as well as the fact only two of the 87 runs he allowed were unearned). The A’s were one of the worst defensive teams in the major last season according to most metrics, meaning more than a handful of the 196 hits he surrendered last season may have been caught by a better group of outfielders, or may have been stopped by a better group of infielders.
Most importantly, there’s evidence to suggest (according to the pitch tunneling data available from Baseball Prospectus) that Graveman compares favorably to Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks – he of the major league leading 2.13 ERA and third place finish in the NL Cy Young Award race last season, as well as the regular Greg Maddux comparisons.
He may not be Maddux or even Hendricks, but if the A’s play better defense behind him in 2017 – and some of their offseason moves suggest they will – expect a very good season for Graveman.
Another Name to Know: 1B/3B/DH Ryon Healy
Two More for the Future: SP Sean Manaea and SP Jharel Cotton
Philadelphia Phillies
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: Aaron Nola
Though most baseball fans probably missed it (the club struggled to a 71-91 final record, after all) but there were quite a few relative breakout performers for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2016. Maikel Franco showed glimpses of the power and run producing ability that made him a top prospect. Cesar Hernandez posted surprisingly solid numbers.
Tommy Joseph and Freddy Galvis (Freddy Galvis!) each topped 20 home runs, and Cameron Rupp and Odubel Herrera hit 16 and 15, respectively. Herrera, an All-Star in 2016, is quietly blossoming into one of the most productive all-around outfielders in baseball.
However, for the Phillies to take the next step as a team, they will need improve their run prevention. Last year, Philadelphia surrendered 796 runs – the fifth most in the major leagues – and posted an ugly 4.63 team ERA. One player capable of helping the Phils turn those numbers around is Aaron Nola.
Despite a 4.29 career ERA in parts of two big league seasons, Nola has displayed a wealth of talent and a wide range of effective pitches capable of getting hitters out. Nola was terrific early last season and posted a 5-4 record with a 2.65 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 78 innings over his first 12 starts. During that stretch, he held opposing hitters to a .212/.252/.329 slash. Not bad for a pitcher that won’t turn 24 until June.
However, a UCL sprain hurt Nola’s ability to command his pitches, and he was 1-5 with a 9.82 ERA and allowed a .367/.435/.531 slash across eight starts until being shut down. He hasn’t fully rebounded just yet (Nola has a 6.62 ERA in 17.2 innings this spring), but is healthy enough to get back on track once the season starts.
If Nola returns to his early 2016 form, he has the talent to be the ace of a Phillies team that’s trending in the right direction.
Another Name to Know: 1B Tommy Joseph
One More for the Future: SS J.P. Crawford
Pittsburgh Pirates
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: Jameson Taillon
Like quite a few of our potential 2017 breakout performers, Pirates right-hander Jameson Taillon is a former high first round pick and mega prospect. Also like several of the players that have come before him on this list, Taillon must overcome the injuries that have limited him in the past.
Taillon missed all of 2014 and 2015, which concerned fans that feared the 2010 No. 2 overall draft pick he may never reach his full potential. Hell, there were some that thought he may never be healthy enough to make it to the big leagues. But, despite so much time on the shelf, Taillon excelled with a 2.04 ERA in 10 starts in Triple-A, and earned a promotion to Pittsburgh. In his second start, Taillon tossed eight scoreless innings against the Mets. He allowed just two hits and the Pirates won 4-0.
In 18 starts with the Pirates, Taillon posted a 5-4 record with a 3.38 ERA and 85 strikeouts in 104 innings. He surrendered 13 home runs, but allowed less than one hit per frame and walked just 17 batters. Given his mid-90s fastball and excellent curve, the big Texan has all the tools to be a terrific No. 2 starter, which is exactly what the Pirates need.
The Pirates missed the postseason for the first time since 2012 last season, and an underachieving pitching staff was the biggest reason why. Other than Gerrit Cole, late arrival Ivan Nova and Taillon, Pirates starters struggled. But, if that trio puts together a full season together – and especially if Taillon stays healthy – the Bucs will be back in the postseason race.
Another Name to Know: RP Felipe Rivero
One More for the Future: 1B Josh Bell
San Diego Padres
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: C Austin Hedges
No team in Major League Baseball has as many open opportunities as the San Diego Padres. The Padres are projected to win the fewest games in the big leagues by just about every projection model, writer, talking head and Las Vegas odds maker. The club slashed payroll (but still signed Wil Myers to a long-term, big-money contract) and opened up the competitions for playing time.
As a result, several young players, such as Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski, Luis Sardinas, Manuel Margot, and Ryan Schimpf will have a chance to prove themselves worthy of an everyday spot in the lineup. One player that probably shouldn’t have had to wait this long for such an opportunity is 2017 breakout candidate Austin Hedges.
To be clear, not every breakout candidate should be expected to hit 25 home runs, post a .350 on-base percentage or slug .450. For Hedges, establishing himself as one of the top defensive catchers in the National League would be a worthy goal, and he has the potential to do it.
Of course, to truly break out, Hedges will need to be far better at the plate. Fortunately, he made huge strides in 2016. After hitting a combined .235/.292/.348 at all levels from 2013-15, and a measly .161/.206/.236 in 64 career games in the majors, Hedges posted a .312/.339/.567 slash combined between Triple-A and San Diego last season.
Hitting in El Paso is very different than San Diego, but Hedges hit 21 home runs (more than twice as many as he had in any previous season) and cut his strikeout rate to 16.1 percent. Derek Norris is out of the picture, and Christian Bethancourt isn’t likely to wrestle the primary catching duties away from him, so expect Austin Hedges to finally seize his opportunity for the Padres.
Another Name to Know: CF Travis Jankowski
One More for the Future: RF Hunter Renfroe
San Francisco Giants
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: LF Jarrett Parker
Good or bad, it’s usually not a smart idea to tie a breakout projection to spring training results. It’s also not very common for a major league team to essentially hold a two-man competition for a job in the starting lineup.
Of course, Jarrett Parker’s hot spring (.267/.377/.556 with four home runs and 12 RBI through 52 plate appearances) has put him on at least equal footing with Mac Williamson (a similarly productive .324/.378/.559 with two home runs in 36 plate appearances). His not-quite-pretty left-handed swing gives Parker the inside track to the top spot on the left field depth chart ahead of the right-handed Williamson.
Parker was solid for the Giants in a 2015 debut: After struggling in a short June call-up, he hit .400/.467/.900 with six home runs during a 17-game stretch in September and October. Last season, Parker started in the minors again, then started slow in San Francisco after being called up in May. However, he started clicking in June and hit .270/.407/.392 over his final 44 games. Unfortunately, Parker started just 17 of those 44 games and only received more than one pate appearance in three of his final 18 appearances.
Should Parker nail down the role prior to Opening Day, the 28-year old will finally have an opportunity to show what he can do in a full big league season, and with regular at bats. He probably won’t have many splash hits into McCovey Cove, but Parker has tallied double-digit homers in each of his six seasons in the minors – and has the potential to do it with the Giants in 2017.
Another Name to Know: 3B Eduardo Nunez
One More for the Future: RP Derek Law
Seattle Mariners
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP James Paxton
It’s time Seattle Mariners fans come to accept the fact that Felix Hernandez isn’t going to pitch (or at least pitch extremely well) forever. The future Hall of Famer will be only 31 this season, but Hernandez looked oddly human each of the last two years, and with that in mind – as well as the offseason decision to ship Taijuan Walker to Arizona – the Mariners need an ace of the future.
James Paxton could be that ace. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound lefty is 28 years old, so it’s not like he’s going to pitch 20 years longer than Hernandez, but Paxton’s career projection is on the upswing and there are far fewer innings on his ledger through four big league seasons.
Always a hard-throwing left-hander, Paxton actually improved his velocity in 2016 after making a slight change to his arm slot. In 2015, he averaged 94.1 miles per hour on his fastball with a max velocity of 97.5. Last year, those numbers jumped to 96.7 and 100.2, respectively.
The results were striking. Though he did spend time on the DL with an elbow injury, Paxton made a career high 20 starts with Seattle, in which he posted a 3.79 ERA and 2.80 (!) FIP with 117 strikeouts in 121 innings. His strikeout rate jumped four percentage points to 22.9 percent, which his walk rate dropped to just 4.7 percent – 2.8 percent better than his previous best in either the major or minor leagues.
As is always the case with breakout candidates, Paxton must stay healthy to reach his potential. But with added velocity, better control, and harder to hit stuff, Paxton’s potential is now top of the rotation.
Another Name to Know: CP Edwin Diaz
One More for the Future: 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach
St. Louis Cardinals
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SS Alemdys Diaz
The St. Louis Cardinals have a rich history of summoning breakout performers from what appears to be thin air. Last season, it was Aledmys Diaz, who was given the starting shortstop shortstop for the Cards as a result of a spring injury to Jhonny Peralta and Jedd Gyorko’s inability to nail down a specific infield position.
Diaz responded to the opportunity with an All-Star performance and challenged Corey Seager for NL Rookie of the Year honors during the first half of the season. Overall, the 26-year old hit .300/.369/.510, clubbed 17 home runs, drove in 65 runs and scored 71 in 111 games (Diaz missed all of August and half of September due to injury). He slowed down the stretch, and isn’t a good defensive shortstop (meaning he’ll eventually see time at third base), but Diaz showed discipline at the plate with a low 13 percent strikeout rate and a decent 8.9 percent walk rate.
Because of his seemingly out-of-nowhere results last season, especially since he put up rather pedestrian numbers at multiple minor league stops over the previous two years, it’s easy to forget that the Cardinals signed Diaz for $8 million out of Cuba in 2014. Most projection models don’t expect Diaz to match his stats from 2016. However, it’s the talent that St. Louis saw in 2014 that makes us optimistic that Diaz won’t be a flash in the pan, but actually has the potential to develop into one of the top offensive infielders in the National League.
Another Name to Know: RF Stephen Piscotty
One More for the Future: C Carson Kelly
Tampa Bay Rays
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: SP Blake Snell
In searching for the right words to describe Tampa Bay breakout candidate Blake Snell, I landed on a recent post by Joe Clarkin at Beyond the Box Score. Simply, Clarkin hit the nail on the head:
"Tampa Bay Rays starter Blake Snell is kind of a weirdo. He has a body that reminds you a little bit of Chris Sale. He sometimes wears his pants rolled up to his knees like a scrappy middle infielder. He wears a single-digit number, for crying out loud."
Of course, as Clarkin points out, that description doesn’t impact whether or not Snell is a good pitcher, which he is, or whether he has the ability to become a great pitcher, which he does.
As a 23-year old rookie last season, Snell posted a 6-8 record with a 3.54 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 89 innings spread across 19 starts. The lefty struck out 24.4 percent of the hitters he faced, but as was his biggest flaw in the minors, often struggled to locate his pitches.
Snell walked 12.7 percent of the hitters he faced, the second most of any pitcher that recorded 80 or more innings in 2016, just 0.01 percent behind Lance McCullers. Snell’s 5.16 BB/9 was the worst in the big leagues among that sample, 0.16 more than McCullers. As a result, Snell had the fifth highest WHIP (1.62) in the sample behind Mike Pelfrey, Shelby Miller, Chris Young and Jorge de la Rosa – not exactly the company an up-and-coming starter wants to keep.
Nevertheless, Snell is currently penciled in No. 4 in the Tampa Bay starting rotation, which means he’s in line for a full season with the Rays. Assuming he stays healthy, and makes some modest improvements with his command, Snell has the swing-and-miss stuff to rack up strikeouts, and wins, for the Rays in 2017.
Another Name to Know: IF Nick Franklin
One More for the Future: LF Mallex Smith
Texas Rangers
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: RF Nomar Mazara
The Texas Rangers are one of the most interesting teams in the American League. The two-time defending AL West champs have a roster packed with big names and talented youngsters, yet because they’ve underachieved according to underlying statistics the last two seasons, the club isn’t getting much love from the preseason prediction models or Las Vegas odds makers.
There are breakout candidates aplenty. Among the up-and-comers in the lineup, Jurickson Profar is back in action, has a new position (left field), and appears primed to live up to the potential that made him one of the top prospects in baseball. Joey Gallo, despite a failure to force himself into the everyday lineup, has 30-plus home run power. But the next Texas Rangers superstar, and the player with the best chance at a breakout season in 2017, is Nomar Mazara.
He won’t be 22 for another month, but Mazara has already established himself as one of the most promising outfielders in the league. Last season, Mazara hit .266/.320/.419, smashed 20 home runs and tallied 64 RBI across 145 games. He wasn’t intimidated by an early April call-up either: through the first 24 games of his career, Mazara hit .323/.377/.484 with four homers out of the No. 2 hole in the lineup.
He cooled off a bit as manager Jeff Banister shuttled him up and down the lineup card, but the left-handed right fielder was a mainstay for the Rangers, and handled himself quite well.
Looking ahead to 2017, there’s little worry of a sophomore slump. Mazara showed he’s capable of improving his plate discipline (his 19.7 percent strikeout rate last year was better than three of his four minor league seasons), and he’s also capable of walking more (his 6.9 percent walk rate was nearly four percentage points lower than his minor league average). With a full season under his belt and a talented core around him, the next stop for Mazara is stardom.
Another Name to Know: LF/IF Jurickson Profar
One More for the Future: 1B/3B/LF/DH Joey Gallo
Toronto Blue Jays
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: 1B Justin Smoak
It’s all coming together. The oldest player on our list, 30-year old Justin Smoak, is finally ready to break out in 2016. Sure, we’ve been saying that since 2010 and he’s yet to post a 1.0-WAR season in seven years in the big leagues, but this feels right.
Smoak is a career .223/.308/.392 hitter, and posted a remarkably similar .217/.314/.391 slash last season. He hit just 14 home runs and 10 doubles while driving in only 34 runs, and posted a career high 32.8 percent strikeout rate, but Smoak is expected to be the everyday first baseman in Toronto for the third straight season.
Though his track record obviously isn’t great, Smoak makes the cut for us because of the opportunity he has following a two-year contract extension he signed last summer. Edwin Encarnacion left as a free agent, so Smoak won’t have to regularly cede first base to one of the game’s biggest sluggers. Encarnacion’s replacement, Kendrys Morales, has played a total of 14 games at first base over the past two seasons, so he’s not likely to push Smoak out of the lineup.
It’s possible Steve Pearce or Jose Bautista could take some playing time from Smoak, but Pearce hasn’t forced himself into the lineup for more than 102 games in any of his 10 major league seasons, and Bautista is still needed in the outfield. Finally, despite being one of the top power-hitting prospects in the game, Rowdy Tellez hasn’t played above Double-A, so Smoak has time to build up some good numbers before the 22-year old challenges him.
So there you have it. Justin Smoak is a breakout candidate by process of elimination. He’s an every day first baseman in the American League, and by God, it’s time he starts hitting like it.
Another Name to Know: 2B Devon Travis
One More for the Future: 1B Rowdy Tellez
Washington Nationals
2017 MLB Breakout Pick: 3B Anthony Rendon
Anthony Rendon is a good baseball player. That seems like an understatement given the fact Rendon was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2011 draft, and has played four seasons in the big leagues – two of which he hit at least 20 home runs with 80 RBI and 12 stolen bases. Also, Rendon led the National league in runs scored (111) in 2014, and finished fifth in the MVP vote that year.
However, Rendon is still overshadowed on his own team by 2015 MVP Bryce Harper, 2016 MVP runner-up Daniel Murphy and hotshot shortstop/outfielder Trea Turner, as well as a star-studded pitching staff. Rendon is a good-to-very good third baseman, but he’s no Nolan Arenado with the glove or the bat. Still, Rendon is good and he could make a bigger name for himself in 2017.
One of the things that has held Rendon back from becoming a household name for casual baseball fans is his injury history and its related impact on his consistency. Last season, he was healthy enough to play in a career high 156 games, and his numbers were solid. Rendon hit .270/.348/.450 with 20 home runs, 85 RBI and 91 runs scored. He also worked 65 walks.
Again, solid. But not flashy. Not dominant. Not enough to grab a piece of the spotlight away from the bigger stars on the roster, much less throughout the National League.
Nevertheless, Rendon is capable of more. And, if he follows through with a breakout 2017 season, the Nationals should be a legitimate World Series contender.
Next: 10 best bets in MLB in 2017
Another Name to Know: RP Shawn Kelly
One More for the Future: RP Blake Treinen