The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers are the overwhelming favorites to meet in the NBA Finals, for the third year in a row. But can they actually do it?
Every NBA fan knows that it is going to be the Cavaliers and the Warriors fighting it out in June, but what if it isn’t? That is an unpopular opinion, but there are clear clues hinting that this matchup may not happen.
Kevin Durant came back in the nick of time for the Warriors, recovering from an ill-timed knee injury that could have held him out for the remainder of the year. The Warriors are glad to have him back, but what if he didn’t come back? Would the Warriors still be Finals favorites?
How about the cratering Cleveland defense? Is that enough to keep them from sliding through the Eastern Conference playoffs?
Here are five reasons we’re not headed for Cavaliers-Warriors vol. 3.
5. Draymond Green kicks someone
Don’t look at me like that. This could easily happen. I know he’s mostly been good this season but we saw his flailing get him in trouble again and again in the playoffs last year, really costing the Warriors in the NBA Finals.
Draymond understands the stakes but he always seems to be skating on the very edge of self-control. The intensity goes up in the playoffs, particularly emotionally. The games will be harder, more physical, and there is more room for frustrations to reach a boiling point. Maybe it’s a kick. Maybe it’s some other outburst that gets himself ejected from a key game or draws a suspension.
Variance and volatility can be the undoing of any juggernaut and Draymond has shown that he can inject both in a negative way. It might not happen, and it might not be a big deal it if does. But it’s happened before so we can’t dismiss the possibility.
4. It’s happened before, it can happen again
Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, aka “The Splash Bros,” are known for their ability to nail 3-pointers like layups. They are both known for having crisp shooting forms and unmatched range.
But what if they falter, like they have before?
In the games after Kevin Durant’s injury, both Thompson and Curry had rough nights. Thompson is known for having more rough nights than Curry, but when neither can hit their long shot, the game doesn’t go well.
The Warriors have less shooting off the bench than they have in year’s past and spacing is tighter around their elite backcourt. If things go cold everything else gets tighter. Big 0-for night from Klay and Curry won’t fly against the top-tier teams they’ll be seeing every night in the playoffs. Every miss is a little more costly when the stakes get higher.
3. They are the worst part of the game
I’m not trying to jinx either team by saying their player will get injured but, hey, it happens. Two years ago, the Cavaliers’ playoff run was derailed by injuries to Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Last season, the Warriors had to fight through games without Curry, and then without him at 100 percent.
Kevin Durant just came off of an injury that held him out for a month and Kevin Love looks like he is back at full strength after being held out because of his injury. But both players could be subject to a reoccurrence, or simply a nagging pain as wear-and-tear takes it’s toll. Both teams look to be healthy right now, but all it takes is one wrong step and things get complicated in a hurry.
2. He can’t continue to be superman for the Cavaliers
LeBron is superman. Have you ever seen the two of them in the same room? I haven’t. My logic is flawless here people, work with me.
LeBron has been playing a ridiculous number of minutes this season, 37.6 minutes per game, which is second only to Kyle Lowry. Neither Lowry nor James should be playing more than 32 minutes per night, especially not in the regular season where nothing matters (according to LeBron).
James has also taken games to rest, which isn’t new but they caused a definite uproar this season, more so than last year. The man needs his rest, especially when he is going out and winning close games night in and night out for the Cavaliers. The rest is good but it doesn’t wipe away his absurd workload. What if LeBron reaches for that extra gear in the playoffs and it isn’t there because he was playing multiple overtimes in a meaningless game against the Pacers?
1. It’s time for the defense to step up
The most obvious flaw for either Cleveland or Golden State is the Cavaliers’ defense. It’s bad — ranking 21st in defensive efficiency among all NBA teams. That is not a championship caliber defense, and the Cavaliers need to fix it fast.
They have not been able to perform at that end and have shown night in and night out that they cannot be trusted with big leads. In the game against the Atlanta Hawks last weekend, the Cavs blew a huge lead and ended up losing in overtime to the Hawks in historically catastrophic fashion.
Their bench doesn’t have a rim protector which contributes to some of their troubles. Once Tristan Thompson leaves the floor, Channing Frye subs in as his replacement which is good for the offense but bad for the defensee. The Cavaliers might as well hang an “open for business” sign on the rim because Frye is only good for spacing the floor. They had a shot at a defensive center in Andrew Bogut, but he is done for the season with an injury. Larry Sanders is on the roster but hasn’t looked ready to make an impact.
The Cavaliers need to figure out what they’re doing with their defense in a hurry or they’re in deep trouble.