Ezekiel Elliott had the perfect storm last year, but he’s not the only rookie running back to have had an impact in the last few years. Which players have the chance to provide immediate production in 2017?
10. D’Onta Foreman, Houston Texans
In the recent past, both Miami and Houston have attempted to use Lamar Miller as a full time workhorse back. So far, he hasn’t proven his fantasy worth and 2016 was another blip as he only averaged four yards per carry and ran for five touchdowns on the year. Can he really handle it all? Granted, the offense was in the hands of Brock Osweiler, but Miller was given every opportunity to shine.
In 2017, Deshaun Watson will provide a much-needed boost in the passing game, but the team spent a top 100 pick on Foreman to boost their rushing attack, and he could steal early down work from Miller from day one. He’s a little taller and about 10 pounds heavier, and has a nose for the end zone (15 touchdowns in his senior season). That said, he doesn’t offer Miller’s speed and explosiveness.
For now, his fantasy upside will rely on the scores, but I can see him taking carries away from the veteran as the season goes along because of his aggressive, attacking and punishing style. Fans will love him, and soon enough fantasy owners will too.
Players who just missed: Wayne Gallman, New York Giants, Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts, Joe Williams, San Francisco, James Conner, Pittsburgh
9. Jamaal Williams, Green Bay Packers
Williams has an outstanding story, and now he’s ended up with a fantastic opportunity. The Packers have been so desperate at running back in the last few years that they even turned to veteran wideout Randall Cobb and most recently receiver-turned-running back Ty Montgomery, who is on top of the depth chart right now. Montgomery will be the clubhouse leader, but both Williams and fellow late round draft pick Aaron Jones will be given every chance to make the backfield their own.
Williams is a smooth runner who was very productive at Brigham Young (3,900 yards and 35 touchdowns over four years), and there are many reasons to believe he will be Green Bay’s workhorse. Predominantly, it’s important to take into account Montgomery only had more than ten carries in a game and over 60 rushing yards once last season. He’s unproven as a runner, and can’t be expected to handle a full workload.
While the team let Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael and Don Jackson go, they brought in two more runners to provide competition to their current starter and Williams will likely be fairly cheap in your fantasy drafts. Let other take Montgomery, while you steal a player who could take the reins.
8. Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They waited until the fifth round, but McNichols could have an immediate impact in an unstable Tampa Bay backfield. The Boise State Bronco followed in Jay Ajayi’s footsteps with an extremely productive career (1,709 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns in his junior year), and teams might regret letting him slide all the way to Tampa.
In front of him is another Boise alumnus in Doug Martin, who will miss the first three games of 2017 after his drug suspension at the end of last season. Martin is reportedly looking great this offseason, but he’d shown a decline in performance before he was forced to miss week 17. He’s been unpredictable during his career, and the team might not hesitate to offer carries elsewhere. Charles Sims, the team’s “receiving back” hasn’t reached 1,000 yards through the air in three seasons, and McNichols might even step right into that role.
The Tampa Bay offense has firepower in every position. Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson surround improving quarterback Jameis Winston, and newly added tight end O.J. Howard will cause havoc in the middle of the field. The only component missing is a strong running back, and McNichols could step right in.
7. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
As a long-term fantasy asset, Alvin Kamara has a tremendous ceiling. The Saints have enjoyed great production from running backs in their receiving role (Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles), and the team will use the Tennessee Volunteer in similar ways. Head coach Sean Payton said the team was extremely impressed by the third round pick’s ability to run routes between the numbers, and that sets him apart from veterans Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson.
Even though he’ll be a rookie ‘behind’ the two star backs, it might not take long for Kamara to see the field and be involved. Sproles caught at least 70 balls in his three seasons with the team, and before that Bush had 70-plus receptions in his rookie and sophomore seasons. Future Hall of Famer and star fantasy quarterback Drew Brees has missed an asset like Kamara in recent years, and the first year player will scoop up a ton of easy receptions and rack up the PPR points.
Kamara has home-run potential when he touches the ball, and although he won’t be a traditional workhorse and every-week fantasy starter, he could be a great boom or bust flex option. Don’t be afraid to start him in deeper leagues.
6. Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins
Perine has been a firm favorite for dynasty folks for a while now, and he couldn’t have landed in a better spot for immediate fantasy value. Robert Kelley was the team’s leading rusher in 2016 with only 708 yards, and 2015 third round pick Matt Jones has fallen so far out of favor the team was attempting to shop him around draft time.
The former Oklahoma Sooner Perine steps in having scored 51 total touchdowns in three years, and even putting up a 196-1090-12 line while sharing carries with transcendent talent Joe Mixon (187-1274-10). While Mixon was the lightning, Perine was the thunder as he hits hard and has a powerful, nasty streak. At 5-foot-11 and 233 pounds, he’s a stocky back who packs a punch, and proved his upper body strength with 30 bench press reps at the combine (which led all running backs).
He’s not going to provide a dynamic or explosive element to Washington’s offense, but their passing game is where they excel with speed and quickness. Perine will handle early down work and immediately collect red zone carries for an attack that created the third-most yards last season. He’s in line for a great first fantasy season.
5. Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
With Jamaal Charles’ injuries in 2015 and 16, Kansas City has struggled to find a reliable star in the backfield. Charcandrick West had a spell as the lead dog, and Spencer Ware impressed last season, but ultimately they lack the all-round talent to take over (and return fantasy value). Even receiver Tyreek Hill had more 20-plus yard runs (four) than Ware (three) and West (two) last season, so they need an infusion of dynamism in the backfield.
Hunt, while not a “big-play” back, is a low-center-gravity back, whose trunk-like legs are reminiscent of former Atlanta star Michael Turner. Chiefs general manager John Dorsey said he has “incredible contact-balance” and that “the legs continue to move on so he’s getting positive yards”. He only lost one fumble over four years, and also proved in his senior season he can be a strong catcher of the ball, by accumulating 403 yards on 41 receptions.
The Chiefs used fourth and seventh round picks to move up to get him, and they called him the next best back after the top tier. He’s going to be added into the backfield rotation straight away, and should prove his superior talent by the middle of the season. Jump on board and get Hunt on your rosters.
4. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
I love McCaffrey’s talent, and there’s certainly a tier jump from Hunt to here, but he falls just out of the top three because of the uncertainty of his role. The Panthers offense will need a significant change in philosophy to incorporate McCaffrey’s receiving skills, and it might not kick in straight away.
Last year, Carolina’s most-targeted running back (Fozzy Whittaker) caught 25 balls. The year before, Mike Tolbert managed 18 grabs. Of course this team hasn’t had a strong receiving back during Cam Newton’s reign, so it’s not a huge surprise, but how will he adapt? When under pressure, will he tuck and run as he does so well, or dump the ball off to his new toy? The change in mindset will benefit him, but how quickly will it happen?
On the ground, McCaffrey will make an impact but is likely to give up carries to power back Jonathan Stewart. The veteran has showed signs of slowing down and should be ousted eventually, but the team will likely attempt a balance early on. However there’s no denying the rookie’s talent. It would be crazy for the team to hold keep him off the field in favor of a plodder, and the Panthers will surely think of creative ways to get involved. Even though he’s fourth on this list, he’s in line for a huge season.
3. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
We all know Mixon’s story. But he’s been given the chance to play in the NFL, and the Bengals valued him highly enough to take him in the second round of the draft. This tells me they do view him as the transcendent talent many thought he was before the draft, and will give him every opportunity to shine. To prove their belief in him, it wouldn’t surprise me if the team throws him into the fire early.
Jeremy Hill has been a huge disappointment since his rookie campaign, and Giovani Bernard is a pure pass-catcher who can’t handle a full workload. Mixon can do it all, and with Bernard coming back from a torn ACL, he might be immediately utilized in the passing game as Hill doesn’t excel in that area.
The Bengal’s offense has been overhauled with the addition of Mixon and fellow rookie John Ross, who will add a deep threat to an already stacked group including A.J. Green and tight end Tyler Eifert. Andy Dalton is a more than capable of producing multiple fantasy assets, and Mixon will be involved both on the ground and through the air. Watch out AFC North – there could be fireworks in Cincinnati.
2. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
I know. Cook fell to the second round, so why does he usurp McCaffrey as an immediate impact player? Because, like Mixon, it was off-field issues that held him back. Also, it’s because he is a more traditional back who can plug right in, and it won’t take him long to steal work from newly acquired Latavius Murray and athletic-sensation-who-hasn’t-put-it-all-together Jerick McKinnon.
Minnesota used their fourth round pick to move up from 48 to 41 in the draft (presumably to jump ahead of Philadelphia) to acquire the Florida State runner, who broke Warrick Dunn’s FSU career rushing record during an unbelievable college career. In three seasons, he put up 4,464 yards on 687 carries (6.5 yards per carry) and 48 total touchdowns. In 2016, he was the Orange Bowl MVP, a unanimous All-American and selected to the All-ACC First Team for his mesmerizing on-field play.
He’s arguably the most talented runner in the class, but slipped down boards due to questions about the people he surrounded himself with in college and a sub-par combine. With his second round selection to a team where he’s clearly the best runner, I’m expecting big things from the off. He could finish as a top 12 back.
1. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
In order to be effective, Fournette needed to end up in a situation where the coach wants to ride him like an old school workhorse. In Jacksonville, that’s exactly what will happen. He has no competition for the early down work, and he’ll surprise many with his ability to catch the ball.
The Dallas Cowboys selected Ezekiel Elliott last year at the same spot in the draft, but don’t be fooled into thinking both players walk into the same opportunity. Elliott was behind arguably the best offensive line we’ve seen in decades, while Fournette joins a messy offense with a struggling quarterback. It’s a new regime, so we’ll have to wait and see how the attack is designed, but Fournette’s selection should solidify him as the centerpiece.
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After Fournette, the team added offensive tackle Cam Robinson, who could provide some much-coveted nastiness to the offense. I won’t question Fournette’s volume, as he is clearly a more talented runner than let-downs Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon, but the offense as a whole will need to be better than 2016 for Fournette to thrive. I believe he’ll make a massive difference for this team, and as I mentioned before the draft, his upside is huge. Don’t overthink him as a prospect – draft him, and he’ll be a star.