The Rockets acquired star point guard Chris Paul via trade from the Clippers on Wednesday. Here are the five biggest questions for the new-look Rockets.
The Houston Rockets made a power move and acquired Chris Paul via trade from the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. They sent seven players, a top-three protected 2018 first-round pick, and cash to the Clippers in exchange for Paul. It is a mountainous deal that some already believe has put Houston in position to challenge the Golden State Warriors. Rockets’ general manager Daryl Morey acknowledged its a “weapons race” right now to catch the league’s elite. His comments suggest there is more to come.
Multiple reports indicate Houston’s intention to trade for All-Star forward Paul George. There is also chatter about Carmelo Anthony should he secure a buyout from the New York Knicks. Morey may very well be plotting the next move. But will his first power play bear fruit? James Harden just had an MVP-caliber season running the offense. Houston won 55 games and had the NBA’s second-best offensive rating while Harden led the league in assists. There is no doubt things will change next season, but for better or worse? Here are the five biggest questions for Paul and his new team.
5. Can they succeed with a “two-quarterback” system?
So does this mean James Harden is no longer the point guard? The guy averaged 11.2 assists per game last season. Now, he’s probably going to lose his job. Head coach Mike D’Antoni believes there is no such thing as “too many point guards.” And he’s not wrong. But for these circumstances only time will tell if he’s correct. Let’s examine the particulars for the Coach of the Year’s new “problem.”
Harden and Paul ranked second and sixth respectively in usage percentage during the 2016-17 campaign. Both players also finished in the top eight in touches and time of possession. Historically, Paul is a methodical point guard who dribbles the air out of the ball while directing traffic. Conversely, Harden is an attacking scorer who collapses the defense and kicks out to open teammates. Both guys love to operate in pick-and-rolls. Neither player operates exceptionally well away from the ball. So how will D’Antoni reconstruct the offense to integrate Paul?
D’Antoni has experience coaching one ball-dominant player, but not two. He was wildly successful with Steve Nash running his fast-paced attack. But Nash did not share reps. Who will D’Antoni trust with the ball in crunch time? Paul has a steady hand and owns the best career assist-to-turnover ratio in NBA history (4.1). Harden is far more susceptible to errant passes. He committed a league-high 464 turnovers last season. That’s 26 more than Russell Westbrook who finished second and 142 more than John Wall who placed third in the same category.
Houston has a problem on its hands. We’ll have to wait and see how to classify it this season.
4. Will Ryan Anderson relinquish his jersey number?
We all know what the answer to this question should be, right? Ryan Anderson is not nor has he ever been the player Chris Paul is. But Anderson is a nine-year vet who’s had a pretty good career thus far. The Rockets signed him to a four-year, $80 million deal last summer. He averaged 13.6 points while shooting 40 percent on 3s during his first season with Houston in 2016-17. Oddly enough, Anderson also donned a No. 3 jersey for the first time in his career after wearing No. 33 for the previous seven seasons. Paul has worn No. 3 since high school. We only know him as “CP3.” So how will this play out?
Anderson could simply defer to Paul’s greatness and give up the number. But that wouldn’t be any fun. Paul could pay Anderson for the number as we’ve seen in sports before. Except Anderson’s salary already rivals that of his new point guard. They could settle it like real competitors with a round of bowling or miniature golf. Harden can live stream it through his Twitter account and provide color commentary. While it’s unlikely to happen, it would command nine-figure views.
Regardless, Anderson has to relinquish the number to Paul. There is no way we will have to start referring to Paul as “CP2” or “CP4.” Surely, the Rockets don’t want to start this next chapter that way. Besides, Anderson could be on his way out of town if Houston can find a team willing to pay the remaining $60 million he’s owed over the next three years.
3. How does Houston stack up against Golden State now?
Every team in the league is looking up at the Golden State Warriors. With the addition of megastar Kevin Durant, the Warriors cruised through the postseason to grab their second championship in three years. Not even the mighty LeBron James offered much resistance. His Cavaliers were dispatched in a much-hyped NBA Finals rubber match that turned out to be a quickie. So Daryl Morey decided he was not going to sit idly by and nabbed a future Hall of Fame point guard. How much did Houston close the gap by acquiring Chris Paul?
The short answer is not much at all. Yes, James Harden and Paul can match or exceed the talent of any backcourt in the league. But we’ve all witnessed how the Warriors are so much more than the Splash Brothers. This means the Rockets will need more than Paul to seriously threaten the reigning champions. Who on their roster can defend and offset Kevin Durant? The 2017 Finals MVP averaged 35.5 points, 9 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks per game against Houston last season. How will they match up with Draymond Green? The Warriors still have twice as many All-Stars as the Rockets.
And though Paul just made All-Defensive First Team for the seventh time, Steph Curry has owned him over the last couple years. Curry posted 31.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 7 assists per game against the Clippers last season. Golden State is still a few steps ahead of Houston right now, but the summer swaps have just begun.
2. Can the Rockets land Paul George or Carmelo Anthony?
Why stop at Chris Paul? Well, the Rockets don’t intend to. Multiple reports indicate their desire to trade for Paul George. The problem is seemingly everyone and their mama is trying to get George. And now Houston has less tradable assets than they did 36 hours ago. The Boston Celtics are also believed to be after George and possess an embarrassment of valuable assets. Then, there’s George’s reported desire to play for his hometown Los Angeles Lakers. So how does Daryl Morey plan to entice the Indiana Pacers?
The salaries match up for Houston to offer Ryan Anderson straight up for Paul George. But this isn’t your rigged franchise mode in NBA 2K17, so no one is accepting that deal. The Pacers will likely covet promising young players and/or multiple draft picks. The Rockets are now short on both. Here’s a potential trade scenario created using ESPN’s NBA Trade Machine.
Houston will have to include multiple future first-round picks in addition to Anderson and Trevor Ariza in any offer to Indiana. When you consider Boston has more favorable draft picks and better young talent to offer, Houston is on the outside looking in for a George trade.
The Rockets’ best chance to add another star may lie with Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is reportedly trying to secure a buyout from the Knicks. But if he’s successful, Houston will have to compete with the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anthony’s services. There is no clear path for the Rockets to snag Paul George or Carmelo Anthony as neither are free agents.
1. Will the Rockets win a title with Paul and Harden?
Since the question is being asked today, the answer is no. But that is subject to change. Let’s face it, as long as Golden State can keep it’s core together, it’s sure to be tough sledding for the rest of the NBA. But the salary cap structure has made it increasingly difficult for teams to carry multiple “max-contract” players. So who knows what the Warriors will look like in a year or two. The Rockets rightfully gutted the bottom of their roster to get Chris Paul. It was no doubt a necessary sacrifice. But the trade has left them thinner. Houston has just seven players with significant playing experience. And one of them is 34-year-old Nene Hilario, who’s coming off a groin injury. So how can they fill out the roster to bring the Larry O’Brien trophy back to Houston?
The Rockets will have to rely on their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to lure a couple veteran role players in free agency. Wing players such as Vince Carter, Omri Casspi, and Thabo Sefolosha will be available and likely on the cheap. Each guy brings added length and versatility to Houston’s roster. It’s still unlikely that any combination of those players will vault the Rockets into pole position in the NBA.
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There’s also the tiny detail of Paul having just one year left on his deal. He’s likely not going to re-sign with Houston until after next season. Yes, Paul can bolt in free agency next summer if this thing turns out to be a nightmare. Houston fans are understandably excited, but please slow your roll on the championship talk for now.