The “Don’t eat the cheese” features a series of fantasy football advice for who you should avoid in your upcoming draft. What five quarterbacks should you steer away from in 2017?
Do you lose your fantasy football league every year? Do you wish you wouldn’t have listened to the fantasy experts? Look no further than the Don’t Eat the Cheese fantasy football series that will provide valuable information on who not to draft for your upcoming fantasy football league. In the first of many posts to come, I dissect the quarterback position. Don’t let that quarterback ruin your fantasy year, or simply just don’t eat the cheese.
In the NFL, if your favorite team doesn’t have a franchise quarterback, you can’t win the Super Bowl. That isn’t necessarily the case in terms of winning your fantasy football league as quarterbacks play second-fiddle to running backs and wide receivers in most fantasy leagues. A year ago, Kirk Cousins and Blake Bortles were among the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks. Not necessarily two quarterbacks you were anticipating to be on that list.
The top five scoring quarterbacks from a year ago were as follows; Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, and Kirk Cousins. You will notice one name missing, in particular, Tom Brady. He will certainly be there in 2017 barring injury. This article, however, is based on quarterbacks you want to avoid. Picking a quarterback too early and missing out on one of those premier running backs or wide receivers could haunt your fantasy season.
5. Blake Bortles
I’m not sure Bortles survives the season as the starter. Under the new regime with Tom Coughlin and Doug Marrone, Bortles has to prove he is the guy long-term. Well, the Jaguars might find out real quick that he isn’t a franchise quarterback. After a horrid 2016, Bortles could find himself on the bench by Week 4 without rapid improvement.
Doug Marrone had the following to say about Bortles poor practice showing:
"“I think anytime someone doesn’t perform to what you want to do, you’re concerned about it,” Marrone said via ESPN. “He’s not the only one that’s out there. There’s some good things. “We’re going to look at it. We’re going to look at those plays. If there’s any struggle or things we don’t like, then obviously we’re going to be smart enough to throw that crap out.”"
By throwing crap out he means not throwing nearly as often. Since he entered the league in 2014, Bortles has the most interceptions in the NFL with 63. After the draft selection of Leonard Fournette, it appears Jacksonville may want to limit his attempts. Bortles came in third in attempts last season (39.1 per game). That number likely won’t be nearly as high with Doug Marrone.
Bortles came in ninth among fantasy quarterbacks in 2016. Most of those points came in the fourth quarter in garbage time. Those opportunities may come again but he might get benched as it’s clear he’s on the hot seat.
Marrone comes in as an offensive line guru who’s predicated on building the run game. For those hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, don’t count on a big year from Bortles.
4. Philip Rivers
The Chargers found a new home in Los Angeles but things don’t appear to be moving in the right direction. First, the Chargers hired a coach (Anthony Lynn) that spend the vast majority of his career as a running backs coach. I don’t have high hopes for this Chargers offense in 2017. Rivers posted his worst quarterback rating (87.9) in nine years and appears to be trending in the wrong direction regardless of the coaching change.
Even if Lynn’s offense is better than expected, his primary focus will probably be on the ground. The Bills did have a solid ground game under Lynn in 2016 but that doesn’t help Philip Rivers fantasy output. Rivers did have a 33-touchdown campaign a year ago with Ken Whisenhunt who returns as offensive coordinator. That’s the good news, the bad news is his weapons aren’t reliable.
Keenan Allen, the team’s top receiver, is returning from an ACL tear. Allen has missed 23 games the past two years and simply can’t be counted on. Neither can Mike Williams, the No. 7 overall pick in 2016, who is dealing with a back injury. Williams back issue could cause him to miss the entire season which may stem from his fractured neck injury in 2015. LA’s top two targets may realistically be Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams, not ideal. In case you forgot, Antonio Gates is also on his last legs. One player to watch for the upcoming season is Hunter Henry who quietly caught eight touchdowns a year ago in his rookie campaign.
3. Marcus Mariota
The Tennessee Titans could be a fluke after surprisingly winning nine games in 2016. Marcus Mariota caught fire a year ago but his kind of playing style hasn’t proved to be viable. Remember Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III? Once the league figured those guys out, their run was over. I suspect a similar phenomenon with Mariota.
With NFL defensive coordinators given a full offseason to scheme, I don’t expect Mariota to have nearly the same level of success. Mariota threw for 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2016 but also fumbled nine times. The former Heisman Trophy winner may be on the run a lot less if he continues to fumble at that rate. Less rushing attempts will obviously limit his fantasy potential. Having 18 turnovers in 15 games also isn’t acceptable.
Once teams learn to slow down Mariota’s rushing ability, Mariota will have to adapt more into a pocket passer. I’m not sure he has that ability to do so.
Opppnents have already started limited his rushing as his yards per carry were down 7.4 to 5.8 from his rookie year. Mariota isn’t completing an overwhelmingly-high percentage either at 61.2 percent. Let’s also not forget he isn’t healthy. It’s unclear how he is going to respond from fracturing his leg late last season. Tennessee will limit his attempts outside of the pocket reducing his fantasy value to keep Mariota upright and healthy.
I expect the Titans to regress from 9-7 a year ago. Head coach Mike Mularkey has a career record of 27-46. Are we really expecting DeMarco Murray to rush for 1,287 yards again to carry the Titans into red zone opportunities?
2. Andy Dalton
I’ve never been high on Andy Dalton, but Cincinnati seems to be trending in the wrong direction. With Pittsburgh always competing for a division title and Baltimore improved, Cincy seems to be the third fiddle in the division. Dalton is really nothing more than a bye week quarterback fantasy option at best.
Dalton is another example of a mediocre quarterback who is suffering without an elite offensive coordinator. From 2011-13 the Bengals offense was run by Jay Gruden who now runs the show in Washington D.C.
During that time, Dalton threw 80 touchdowns over that three-year period. In the three years since Gruden left town, Dalton has thrown just 62 touchdowns. There’s frankly no explanation for why Dalton has regressed from his first three years in the NFL besides the coaching change.
Dalton, 29, threw for just 18 touchdowns in 2016. He did have 4,206 yards but the team was never able to punch it in the end zone. Part of that reason was Tyler Eifert never being healthy.
While Eifert is coming back, Cincy suffered big-time defections along the offensive line. Both Kevin Zeitler and Andrew Whitworth departed via free agency. The Bengals line was shaky as it is after they gave up 41 sacks (25th in NFL) a year ago. Now this line got a whole lot worse. Those losses in free agency may cause the Bengals to go even more conservative in 2017.
The Bengals coaching staff seems less willing to let Dalton take chances when it matters most. Jeremy Hill scored nine touchdowns last season and carried the rock 222 times. That doesn’t even include contributions from Giovani Bernard. The Bengals didn’t draft running back Joe Mixon in the second round not to use him. Cincinnati seems like they may be planning to run the ball a lot more.
Dalton’s interceptions have dropped significantly since 2013 but The Bengals aren’t putting up nearly the same fight they used to. Dalton is a guy you should probably avoid, to say the least.
1. Matt Ryan
The average fan doesn’t realize how important an offensive coordinator is. Kyle Shanahan, Matt Ryan’s offensive coordinator from a year ago, has since departed to become the head coach of the 49ers. This Falcons offense in 2016 put up historic numbers as they were the seventh-highest scoring offense in NFL history.
It’s going to be hard to repeat 33.8 points per game. To do so without Shanahan makes this task seem rather impossible. Are we sure Ryan and the Falcons are even going to rebound from that epic Super Bowl meltdown?
There’s no denying that Shanahan elevated Ryan’s play over the last season. Ryan, 32, set a career-bests in touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9%), and interceptions (7). I have my doubts that Ryan can put up those kind of numbers without Shanahan. Why? Because he hasn’t shown an ability to come close without his former play-caller. Quarterbacks just don’t magically improve in their 30s; this was coaching folks.
What made Matty Ice so successful in 2016 was the implementation of a heavy play-action pass offense. Ryan was often on the move as the Falcons ran more play-action pass than any team in the league a year ago. The famous bootleg in Shanahan’s offense made Atlanta’s offense unstoppable.
The Falcons defeated their opponents by 14.1 points per game in 2016. Even if the Falcons are good again in 2017, the number isn’t attainable. Atlanta averaged 7.6 yards per play on first down as they were never in a bad place to start out a drive a year ago. Let’s also factor in that Atlanta sported the 27th-ranked defense a year ago (25.4 points allowed per game). If the team doesn’t score at a similar rate this year, things could get ugly fast in Atlanta. The Falcons will be playing a first place schedule in a much-improved division this season.
Prior to Shanahan’s arrival in 2014, Ryan ranked seventh in fantasy points among quarterbacks throwing 10 fewer touchdowns and seven more interceptions from his 2016 totals. In 2013, Ryan ranked 15th among QBs in fantasy points throwing for 26 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
Julio Jones has been a constant in this offense but Ryan simply hasn’t always performed like how he performed a year ago. The coaching of Shanahan clearly took him to heights that may not be attainable in 2017.
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Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator will be Steve Sarkisian. Sark hasn’t coached in the NFL since 2004 as a quarterback coach with the Raiders. While Sarkisian is a brilliant mind who did wonders with the University of Washington, USC, and most recently Alabama, he is unproven at the NFL level. It’s unclear how much Sark will tinker with this Falcons offense that was good enough to appear in the Super Bowl.
If Sarkisian fails as a play caller, Ryan’s numbers will presumably plummet. Even if Ryan returns to form, there’s really no reason to reach for him given the fact that there are tons of quarterback options available.