The “Don’t eat the cheese” series is here to help you win your fantasy league. Don’t fall for that running back who will break your heart. Which five running backs should you avoid in your upcoming draft?
Are you tired of drafting a running back in the first round of your fantasy draft and watching him ruin your season? The running back position is a dying art but a necessary one. The running backs are the staple of you fantasy football diet. Without one, your season is ruined. Picking the right ones are the difficult task at hand. To start off your draft, it’s important not to take a bust in round one.
Were you that guy who took Todd Gurley way too early after a dominant rookie year? My golden rule for drafting running backs is to avoid drafting backs on bad teams. Gurley’s quarterback situation with Jared Goff is anemic which allows teams to stack the box. Don’t listen to what the ‘experts’ have to say, their normally wrong. Don’t let that running back ruin your fantasy year, or simply just don’t eat the cheese.
It’s no secret that the NFL is a pass-heavy league but running backs still play a vital part in fantasy football. Picking backs on good teams usually turn out pretty well. Burning the clock in the fourth quarter picking up extra fantasy points usually works out well. Just ask LeGarrette Blount who was a beneficiary of New England’s offense a year ago.
Also be mindful of your team’s scheme and coaching hires. Sean McDermott is reunited with LeSean McCoy who he coached in Philadelphia. McCoy will likely pound the rock again with fluidity. Anthony Lynn is on his way to coach the Chargers where he spent his career as a running back coach prior to his new gig. Melvin Gordon will likely benefit from this. These are the important things to keep in mind heading into your fantasy draft. What five running backs should you avoid in your 2017 fantasy football league?
5. Frank Gore
At some point, Frank Gore has to slow down, right? Gore has been playing in the NFL since the dinosaurs went extinct. Gore, 34, couldn’t have put together a better career for himself. Finally, it does appear that Gore is declining averaging less than four yards per carry the past two years. With Gore being at the end of the road, Indy made a sneaky draft pick to help out.
Enter Marlon Mack who is in the perfect spot to succeed. Mack’s main competition for a backup job is Christine Michael and Robert Turbin, neither playing having the receiving prowess Mack does. Mack is a guy that can do it all for the Colts and he’s exactly what Andrew Luck needs in the backfield.
Mack really stood out at the draft process showing great short area quickness. He also thrived in the pass game at South Florida. The Indy offense has been missing that receiving element out of the backfield for years since Edgerrin James was with the Colts. Mack, a three-time 1,000-yard rusher in college, will likely step in right away and get meaningful carries.
As long as Luck is healthy, the Colts should be improved now that they have a real general manager. I would probably bet the under on a 1,000-yard season from Frank Gore, right. Those days are probably over as Marlon Mack may be the main cog in eight weeks. Then again, Gore might be playing at 40 if he continues this absurd pace.
4. Danny Woodhead
NFL fantasy pundits are way too high on Danny Woodhead’s value this season. Woodhead, 32, only played in two games a year ago after missing most of the season via a torn ACL. Counting on a running back in his 30s to bounce backdoesn’t seem too promising. This was also the second time in three years Woodhead missed at least 13 games. The Ravens have already been hit hard with the injury bug. Woodhead’s inevitable injury seems like a foregone conclusion by the way the Ravens’ season is starting out.
Baltimore also wasn’t able to get much going on the ground last season. The Ravens were 28th in the NFL in rushing yards (91.4 per game), a mark that doesn’t seem to improve after the Ravens lost some darn good offensive lineman this offseason. Right tackle Rick Wagner is off to Detroit, Jeremy Zuttah was traded to the 49ers, and John Urschel retired during camp.
Woodhead does come with some receiving value. Then again, do you really trust Joe Flacco to get him the touches in the passing game he needs? Regardless, the Ravens are expected to utilize a running back by committee interchanging Woodhead, Terrance West, Buck Allen, Lorenzo Taliaferro, and Bobby Rainey. West or Taliaferro will handle the goal line touches.
The other thing to keep in mind is trying to project Baltimore’s offense. Right now Joe Flacco can’t be counted on as he hasn’t been the same since Gary Kubiak left. Flacco has undergone constant turnover at the offensive coordinator spot as the Ravens are always tinkering with their offense. Besides for a few check downs to Woodhead, I’m not sure how valuable he really is in terms of fantasy production.
3. Lamar Miller
Miller had a solid season in his first year with the Texans after coming over from Miami. Now that Deshaun Watson is in town, you would figure Miller’s value would improve, right? Well, maybe not. Miller was sixth in the NFL in attempts last season with 268. That kind of workload for a back isn’t ideal.
Houston did not have a viable backup option a year ago with Alfred Blue but that has since changed. The Texans drafted D’Onta Foreman in the third round from the University of Texas. Foreman will give the rushing attack a solid one-two punch. Miller will be able to thrive on the outside runs while Foreman can take the runs inside.
Foreman, 6-foot-1 and 233 pounds, is enormous and could be featured in the red zone. The former Texas product rushed for over 2,000 yards this past season in college. Those one-yard attempts at the goal line could go towards Foreman as well. Miller only rushed for five touchdowns a year ago as I don’t expect that total to be any higher with Foreman in town. Lamar Miller averaged just four yards per carry in his first season with the Texans so the opportunity for Foreman to take some of the load definitely remains a possibility.
2. DeMarco Murray
Murray re-established himself as a force rushing for 1,287 yards compared to 702 the year before with the Eagles. Part of the problem in Philadelphia was that he obviously wasn’t a good scheme fit with the Eagles and Chip Kelly. In a run heavy offense, Murray was productive but is he bound for another big year in 2017?
History would say otherwise. Murray was very injury prone during the earlier portion of his career missing nine games his first two years. Murray’s hamstrings have flared up in camp as he could use a reduced workload after receiving 293 carries in 2017. Murray rushed for 392 carries in 2015 as we all know every back only has so many before they lose steam.
Tennessee drafted Derrick Henry in the second round in 2016 for a reason right? The former Alabama running back will presumably get more work heading into his second season. Henry is also a bruiser at 245 pounds and may end up being the goal line vulture in the future. If Murray loses out on some of those touchdowns to an improved Henry, his fantasy value won’t be nearly the same. Henry really came alive late in the season scoring three touchdowns in the team’s final three games leading me to believe he will be more involved in 2017.
1. Devonta Freeman
Outside of David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, and Le’Veon Bell, the running back options are risky, to say the least. Freeman tops my list of fantasy busts for one reason, Kyle Shanahan. Are we sure that Freeman is this good? Let me explain.
Do you remember Steve Slaton? How about more recently Alfred Morris? Shanahan has a habit of turning late-round running back draft picks into gems. His father, Mike, did the same thing. Remember Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell? never underestimate the effect that Shanahan can have on a running back. Shanahan was Slaton’s offensive coordinator for his rookie year in 2008 and later departed in 2009 for Washington. Slaton rushed for 1,282 yards his rookie year. Slaton then rushed for 614 yards the next four years before retiring. Shanahan’s zone running scheme is unstoppable.
Freeman was a nobody prior to Kyle Shanahan’s arrival in 2015. Don’t believe me? Well, be prepared to eat the cheese then. Freeman, 25, has rushed for over 1,000 yards and 22 touchdowns the past two years. Those are great numbers on Shanahan but take a closer look at what he did during his rookie year without him. On 65 attempts, Freeman rushed for 248 yards. His 3.8 yard per carry clip is a short sample size but we have a lengthy track record of Shanahan turning running backs into fools gold.
Next: NFL Draft 2017: 5 worst picks of first round
New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is an unproven commodity. Sark hasn’t coached at the NFL level since 2004 as a quarterback coach. It’s unclear how much he will tinker with Shanahan’s old system. If Sark struggles as the new play caller, Freeman’s numbers will deteriorate. Atlanta also sported the 27th-ranked defense a year ago. If the offense isn’t the same, this team could really struggle. Don’t let me forget to mention Tevin Coleman who may very well be just as good with a bigger workload.