Ezekiel Elliott has been suspended for six games, but here’s why the Dallas Cowboys should not worry.
The ongoing situation regarding a suspension for Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott finally reached a resolution on Friday. ESPN’s Adam Schefter was first to report a six-game suspension for Elliott, for a violation of the league’s personal conduct policy.
In the wake of the botched Ray Rice situation a few years ago, six games has become the NFL’s standard punishment for a domestic violence incident. The fact Elliott was not charged criminally does not matter to the league office, and there’s apparently evidence Elliott attacked his girlfriend on multiple occasions.
On the field, the Cowboys will clearly miss the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year and league rushing leader. But here are five reasons the team should not worry about Elliott’s suspension.
5. It May Not Ultimately Be A 6-Game Ban
Elliott has three business days to appeal his suspension, and he’s absolutely sure to do so. Right or wrong, there’s some chance it will be reduced on said appeal. Owner Jerry Jones carries significant influence, and his continued stance behind Elliott could set up a major power struggle with commissioner Roger Goodell.
If Goodell is pressured at all by Jones, he may pass that down to the appealing authority that should not be himself. Goodell is very highly compensated by the league’s owners, and he surely doesn’t want another extended public incident and legal battle like “Deflategate”. All of that points to a reduction in Elliott’s ban, possibly at a compromise of four games.
4. The Cowboys Offensive Line
Mostly (if not entirely) through the draft, the Cowboys have built arguably the league’s best offensive line. Elliott brings a special, difference-making talent level to the table, which he showed last year, but there’s a strong argument that any running back can succeed behind that line.
Left tackle Tyron Smith, right guard Zack Martin and center Travis Frederick are among the best at their respective positions, and La’el Collins is set to step in for the retired Doug Free at right tackle. Left guard is a big question mark after the free agent departure of Ronald Leary, but four-fifths of a top-notch offensive line is still in place as long as Collins makes a smooth transition.
The Cowboys can absolutely maintain a balanced, if not somewhat still run-focused/oriented, offense without Elliott for however long he’s suspended. The offensive line will be the key reason for that being maintained, as long as everyone is healthy and performs to their ability.
3. The Schedule Is Not So Bad
At first glance, the Cowboys’ schedule for the full length of Elliott’s suspension looks daunting. Week 1 brings a prime time Sunday night matchup against the New York Giants, who beat the Cowboys twice last season, and in Week 5 Dallas will welcome the Green Bay Packers to AT&T Stadium.
But in between those three games are road trips to play the Denver Broncos (Week 2) and Arizona Cardinals (Week 3), followed by a home game against the Los Angeles Rams (Week 4). That looks like at least two wins, with a trip to take on the San Francisco 49ers on the back side of a Week 6 bye for the final game of Elliott’s ban.
It’s easy to see no worse than a 3-3 record for the Cowboys during the full length of Elliott’s suspension, with only one divisional game over that six games. As competitive as the NFC East always is, a back-loaded slate with a fresher Elliott available for it should work to the Cowboys’ advantage ultimately.
Without knowing it at the time, I think the NFL schedule makers did Dallas a bit of a favor early this season. They can survive Elliott’s absence, and maybe even emerge with a winning record.
2. Dak Prescott
After Tony Romo and Kellen More were injured last preseason, Prescott stepped in and was a revelation as a rookie. He’ll surely throw the ball more while Elliott is unavailable, and throw more than an interception every 115 pass attempt as he did last regular season, but Prescott is likely up to the task of adding more to his plate.
Prescott is also a threat with his legs, with 282 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground last year. Exposing your quarterback to more hits with more designed runs is not ideal, or advised, but Prescott could run a bit more and see more goal line carries early this season with Elliott gone.
Prescott may get exposed a bit in his second season, with a whole offseason for opposing defenses to find his weaknesses and find ways to exploit them. But his own adjustment back, with help from offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and full offseason to prepare himself, could offset some of that.
There’s no doubt Prescott will carry a great burden of responsibility while Elliott is suspended. As long as he’s up to it, and Dallas quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson for one seems to believe he is, the Cowboys will be just fine early in the season.
1. Running Back Depth
As the Cowboys’ primary running back in 2015, with the aforementioned offensive line in place, Darren McFadden had over 1,000 rushing yards (4.6 yards per carry) and 40 receptions. So he’s capable of filling part of the void left by Elliott.
Alfred Morris hardly played last year, in his first year with the Cowboys, with 69 carries for 243 yards and two touchdowns as Elliott’s primary backup. But he proved capable of being a workhorse back over his first three NFL seasons with the Washington Redskins, topping 1,000 yards on the ground with no less than 265 carries and seven rushing touchdowns each season from 2012-2014. Morris has significant limitations as a pass catcher, with 50 receptions in five seasons and a single season high of 17 catches (2014), but as a capable early down back he still has a place in today’s NFL.
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McFadden and Morris are in line to split carries in Elliott’s absence, perhaps with a slight tilt toward McFadden since he can catch passes better and be a three-down back. But the Cowboys have two backs that have been productive in the league, and while there’s no replacing Elliott they’re in a better position than most teams would be to try to do it.