With the 2017 NFL season and fantasy drafts fast approaching, we take a look at the top options at the quarterback position for this upcoming season.
It’s finally arrived. Football is back, and we’ve had our appetite’s whetted with some preseason play and some shocking trades that will have a huge impact in fantasy leagues. It’s time to draft your fantasy teams, and this mini series will provide a list of the top players to target at each position.
We take talent, opportunity, coaching, surrounding weapons, past play and many other factors into consideration here to determine those players who could be league-winners. We kick off with the quarterbacks.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Luck
If it wasn’t for the uncertainty, anxiety and major concerns about Luck’s shoulder (which is still stopping him from throwing this offseason), he’d be in the top five. Right now, he’s a huge risk. The issue isn’t with him missing a couple of games, as it’s fairly easy in most leagues to find a starter to fill in. The issue is that if he doesn’t return to 100 per cent, he could struggle all season.
With his full physical capabilities, Luck is one of the few fantasy quarterbacks who can provide a major boost to your squads. Since entering the league in 2013, he’s been the yearly QB7, QB1, QB27 (but sixth in points per game in the seven games he played) followed by the QB4 last year.
In general, it’s simply best to avoid the quarterbacks at the top of the draft. If you look at some of the names left out of this top 10, you’ll no doubt identify a few who you’d be more than happy to start every single week. However, if the Colts continue to stress Luck will be okay by game one, and he starts to fall in fantasy drafts, you could have yourself a league-winner at a discount.
Players who didn’t make the cut: Andy Dalton, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Eli Manning.
10. Ben Roethlisberger
Roethlisberger played the full 16-game slate in only two of the last eight seasons. There have been talks about him potentially retiring. The concerns are legitimate. He’s 35, which might slow him down a tad physically and we have to question whether his heart is really in it with comments that he would “consider all options for 2017” after a playoff loss last year.
However, he’s finished in the top 12 in points per game in five straight seasons, has showed no signs of slowing down when he’s actually been on the field and brings back perhaps the strongest set of skill position weapons in the league. When Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant take the field with him, this offense has the potential to be the best in the league, and Big Ben’s fantasy owners will benefit. As if that wasn’t enough, the team added receiver Juju Smith-Schuster in the second round of the draft, and running back James Conner just two rounds later.
With arguably the best back and wide receiver in the league, there’s no way Roethlisberger falters when he’s in the game. Assuming Bryant is reinstated, the offense could be unstoppable. Even if this year is Big Ben’s last hurrah, it’s going to be a great one.
9. Kirk Cousins
It’s been a fairly tumultuous offseason in Washington, to say the least. Major changes in personnel, a new general manager and contract troubles have all brought attention to the Redskins. That said, Cousins is in a prime position to continue the fantasy success he’s enjoyed over the last couple of seasons, at least for this year.
How many quarterbacks have finished in the top nine in both of the last two seasons? Only four: Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins. Brees will be back, no doubt. Blake Bortles probably won’t be. Can Stafford and Cousins make it three in a row? They’re both more than capable.
Last year, Cousins produced a pair of 1,000 yard receivers on the outside in Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, but both were let go. Now, we’re looking at converted quarterback Terrelle Pryor and second year wideout Josh Doctson, who missed his entire rookie campaign with an injury. So why will Cousins repeat his success? Because at 6-foot-4 and 228 pounds, Pryor is one of the most outstanding athletes across the league at the position. Doctson, last year’s first-round pick, hauled in 25 touchdowns in his final two college seasons and offers another big red zone target. Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder will work the middle of the field, and allow Cousins to spread the ball around. He should be a solid performer again in 2017.
8. Matt Ryan
Ryan had an astonishing 2016. A Super Bowl appearance, a regular season MVP trophy, 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns. But a regression looms. There’s no doubt Ryan is in the prime of his career and will only continue to get wiser as he gets older, but everything came together last season. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan put together the perfect offense that played to every offensive star’s strengths, and the all of his playmakers came through.
Bouncing back from Super Bowl heartbreak is tough, and while we know Ryan’s talent hasn’t changed, Shanahan was integral in the 2016 success. We can expect Ryan to return to a more reasonable stat line, reminiscent of the rest of his career, and settle in as a QB1, but perhaps not so much as a league-winner. Before last year, he had topped 30 touchdowns in only one of his eight seasons in the league, and had thrown more than 12 interceptions in each of the last five years (he threw seven in 2016).
There’s no doubt he has the capability to have another great year with the same weapons around him in Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and more. However, with tons of other options at the position, it might not be wise to treat Ryan as if he’ll repeat last year.
7. Philip Rivers
How do you think the Chargers did last season? The memories probably aren’t pleasant. Keenan Allen was lost for the year. Danny Woodhead followed him to the injured reserve. Rivers even led the league in interceptions. Yet he still finished in the top six among fantasy quarterbacks. He did it again.
Rivers has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks throughout his career, and outside of a dip in 2012, has been a great bet for around 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. With Allen’s return, and the emergence of youngsters Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry, Rivers should continue that trend and end up in the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks, with a chance at the top five. Don’t let the injury problems with Mike Williams worry you (losing second-round pick, offensive guard Forrest Lamp, to injury is more of an issue) — Rivers has dealt with these type of things his whole career and still performed.
Sure, he had a down year with 21 picks and a 5-11 team record, but the team is talented enough to bounce back, and a dark horse for the AFC West this season. You could do a lot worse than starting Rivers each and every week, and he will likely be available in the mid-to-late rounds of your fantasy drafts.
6. Cam Newton
Just a year after having his best fantasy season and an outstanding year as a passer in 2015 (35 passing touchdowns, 10 on the ground and only 10 interceptions), Newton had perhaps the worst of his career so far. It was certainly the most disappointing. He’s not known for his completion percentage and pure passing prowess, but last year he was all the way down at 53 percent. He only threw for 19 scores, and had a career low in rushing attempts (90), yards (359) and tied his low in touchdowns (five). In 2017, things will be different.
The Panthers have had their Super Bowl hangover, and decided to shake up the offense by adding all-round superstar Christian McCaffrey with the eighth pick in the draft. Make no mistake, he’s not just a running back. In fact, at least while he develops as an interior runner, he will be heavily used in the passing game. He’s already being described as special in Carolina, and he’ll be beating defenders one-on-one from day one. In addition to “Run CMC,” the Panthers selected playmaking dual-threat receiver and rusher Curtis Samuel in the second round. Newton needed some support, and he finally has it.
The man who has finished in the top five in four of his six seasons in the league has a great chance to be back.
5. Russell Wilson
2016 was the first year in which Wilson hasn’t continued a steady progression upwards as a fantasy quarterback, but even in a down year he was the QB11. He hasn’t finished below that mark in his five NFL years, and also hasn’t missed a game in that span. Wilson will be a fantastic fantasy investment every year, as he has been every year so far.
He sustained an ankle injury in the season opener, and it showed for the whole of 2016. He had his worst season as a runner with only 72 carries for 259 yards, and seemed to struggle being his usual creative scrambling self. However, he’s coming back in 2017 with full health and a strong surrounding cast. Doug Baldwin has developed into one of the league’s best receivers, and Jimmy Graham, after his first year back from a horrific patella injury, will jump up in red zone production after 2016. Tyler Lockett is another injury returnee who will offer a deep threat Wilson can take advantage of.
Don’t be fooled by a team with a strong defense and preference to run the ball — soon enough, Seattle is going to turn it over to Wilson, and as he proved in the second half of 2015, he’s capable of special things.
4. Marcus Mariota
He’s one of the young quarterbacks whose team made a marked effort to improve around him this offseason. But mostly he’s here because he’s talented enough and now experienced enough to explode in this league.
As a follower of Mariota since his early Oregon days, I’ve been impressed with him throughout his career, and his success in his first two years in the NFL was no surprise at all. One thing that has always struck me is his clean decision-making and smarts in the red zone, and he’s proven it so far with 33 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions. And he’s done that with Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Kendall Wright and Harry Douglas on the outside. Now, he has weaponry.
Corey Davis, Taywan Taylor, Jonnu Smith and Eric Decker. Four new additions in Tennessee, and four significant playmakers who could be massive boosts to the Titans’ passing game. Davis, the best receiver in the class and best rookie fit, is an alpha on the outside and will be a pure WR1 that fantasy owners look for. Taylor and Smith might not have too much of a fantasy impact early, but they improve the offense. Decker is perhaps the most underrated signing of the offseason, as he brings a veteran presence to the wide receiver room and touchdowns on the field. Mariota looks set to explode.
3. Drew Brees
In the last 11 years, Brees has finished as the QB2, QB3, QB1, QB2, QB3, QB1, QB1, QB2, QB3, QB6, QB2. It’s unbelievable, and it hardly even matters who his surrounding cast is. Brandin Cooks was traded to New England, but Michael Thomas remains the top target and immediately looked like Brees’ new favorite big man (the likes of which he hasn’t had since Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston).
Instead of the deep threat that Cooks provided as the focal point, the team will look to utilize their backs with new addition Alvin Kamara attempting to fill the old Darren Sproles role and veteran Mark Ingram looking to be a 2017 version of Pierre Thomas. The screen game as an extension of the run helps Brees rack up those yards, and he’ll continue to do what he’s done his whole career.
Willie Snead has had success before, Ted Ginn will stretch the field and even Brandon Coleman could see an increased role as Brees will pick apart defenses and presumably be involved with a bunch of shootouts thanks to the perennial underperforming New Orleans defense. If you’re picking a quarterback early, Brees should be right near the top of your list.
2. Tom Brady
If there was ever a year in which Tom Brady could beat his 50-touchdown 2007, this would be it. He doesn’t have the same physical ability, so he (probably) won’t, but the weapons around him are insane. This offense could break football.
Rob Gronkowski, the man who has had double-digit touchdowns in all five of the seasons in which he’s in played double-digit games, returns from injury. Brandin Cooks, the most dynamic outside receiver Brady’s had since Randy Moss, is an outstanding acquisition. The fourth-year receiver has had over 75 receptions, 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in each of the last two years in New Orleans. The sky’s the limit for the 23-year-old. Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead boost the running game, and New England could push 30 points per game this season.
The skepticism over whether or not Brady can continue playing at such a high level as a 40-year-old is understandable, but he’s showed no sign of slowing down. In the last three regular seasons, he’s thrown for 97 touchdown passes compared to 18 interceptions. It’s been a joy to watch, and a joy for any fantasy footballer who’s owned him in that time. Don’t hesitate to snap him up if he somehow falls far enough where taking a quarterback makes sense for your teams.
1. Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in football. He dominates in every phase of the game: pocket presence, scrambling ability, throwing on the run, arm strength, ability to lead his receivers with pinpoint accuracy, decision-making and anything else you can think of. He’s in the conversation for greatest of all time, and his fantasy numbers are great too.
Matt Ryan may have taken the MVP trophy and Tom Brady won the Super Bowl, but Rodgers topped them both in fantasy points last year. In 2015, he had his one blip, falling to QB12, and missed time in 2013, but he was QB2 in 2014, QB2 in 2012, QB2 in 2011, QB2 in 2010, QB1 in 2009 and QB2 in 2008 (his first season as starter). No one has matched that insane production.
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He’s got a great trio of receivers with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. His running back, Ty Montgomery is a unique pass-catcher. The whole offense revolves around Rodgers, as it should, and he has many more years of immaculate football ahead of him. You’ll have to be the brave soul who takes a quarterback first in your drafts, but if any player is going make it pay off, it will be Rodgers.