Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race: Preview and predictions for NASCAR at Bristol

Bristol under the lights is a sight unlike anything else in NASCAR, and it’s nearly the last chance for some drivers to race their way into the playoffs.

While not the nigh-impossible ticket it once was, the night race at Bristol Motor Speedway is still a spectacle. There’s something about the Cup Series cars under the stars on NASCAR’s fastest short track that never fails to capture the imagination.

This year’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race is also perfectly positioned on the schedule to add an extra dose of drama. The Cup Series takes a break next weekend before the final two regular season races, so time is growing short for anyone who hasn’t already locked up a playoff spot.

Normally, that could lead to some extra beating and banging, but the XFINITY Series race on Saturday night was a polite affair by NASCAR standards, with only Brendan Gaughan upset after the race. There’s an open question about how much passing and side by side racing we’ll see, much less drivers rooting each other out of the way.

Be that as it may, the night race still figures to be can’t-miss action for NASCAR fans, especially since it’s possibly the last go-round for Dale Earnhardt Jr. at the Last Great Colosseum. Some team is going to leave Bristol happy, while a few others figure to be spending the next two weeks in a quiet state of desperation.

Next: Food City 300 Bristol XFINITY Series highlights

Forecast

A sunny day at Bristol should give way to a clear night. The Weather Channel expects air temperatures around 78 degrees when the green flag waves and only slightly cooler as the race plays out. The best thing is almost zero chance of rain, meaning we won’t be staying up until 2 in the morning to get this one in.

Three things to watch

• Will there be two usable grooves? Perhaps more than at any other track this season, much has been made about the decision to use PJ1 TrackBite on the lower groove at Bristol. The reasoning is that the race usually starts with the lower groove as the preferred way around and then ends with the top lane faster. If the low line could hold up over the whole race, it could make for more late race excitement, but there’s evidence to suggest that won’t be the case.
• Is Bristol a lifeline for Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano? Both drivers are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs, but fortunately, each has had success in this particular race. Kenseth has claimed the checkered flag in the Bristol night race three times, while Logano went back-to-back in 2014 and 2015. If there’s a chance for one of them to grab the win they need, this might be it.
• Can anyone stop Kyle Busch from pulling off the weekend sweep? Rowdy has already claimed the Truck Series and XFINITY Series wins, and he was barely challenged down the stretch in either one. His foes don’t want to see him out front in clean air, but that won’t happen right away, as he starts Saturday night from the 18th position . Oh, and he’s right next to Brad Keselowski, with whom he’s had some run-ins as of late.

Predictions

There’s a lot going on for this Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, including favorites like Busch starting mid-pack and Erik Jones starting from the pole. The opening 50 laps or so could tell us a lot, including whether the Chevys have something for the Toyotas on the half-mile track. It’s hard to pick against Busch, but we’re giving the nod to Martin Truex Jr. to cross another winless track off his list and cement the idea that he’s the man to beat for this year’s championship.

Our dark horse pick is starting even closer to the front. Kasey Kahne has won the spring Bristol race in a Hendrick Chevy but never the night race. He had the speed in qualifying and knows his way around the bullring, and if he can be in it toward the end, one suspects he won’t be shy about doing whatever it takes to claim his second victory of the season and prove that the Brickyard was not a fluke.