Everybody had awful picks last week, and Matt Verderame was no exception. Can he finally get on track, or should he be fired immediately?
This is the week! This is the week I finally get rolling. I feel great about most of these picks, save the Steelers and Ravens, who leave me nervous and troubled emotionally. Let’s get after it!
All lines are courtesy of SportsBook Review, your one-stop shop for all gambling odds.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7)
The Bears (1-2) pulled off a huge upset on Sunday, but this is an even tougher ask. The Packers (2-1) are terrific, especially at home. This shouldn’t be very close.
Pick: Green Bay 30, Chicago 13
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins (London)
The second straight week that London has come calling. The Saints (1-2) and Dolphins (1-1) are both better offensively than defensively, so I’m riding with the better quarterback. Drew Brees should have a huge afternoon.
Pick: New Orleans 31, Miami 23
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
The Falcons (3-0) are one of two undefeated teams remaining, and should stay that way through Sunday. The Bills (2-1) are playing hard and the defense is legitimate, but this is a brutal assignment. Don’t be surprised if this is fairly close, though.
Pick: Atlanta 23, Buffalo 17
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-10)
The Patriots (2-1) defense has been terrible. The Panthers (2-1) offense has been horrible. Something has to give, and I’m betting on Carolina to break before New England does in Gillette. Cam Newton needs to step up for the Panthers to have a shot.
Pick: New England 27, Carolina 20
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
This is the Battle for Ohio. I’m guessing the state wants both teams to lose. What a train wreck.
Pick: Cincinnati 24, Cleveland 20
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (NO LINE)
We aren’t sure whether Sam Bradford will play, and for that reason, I’m taking the Lions (2-1) over the Vikings (2-1) on the road. Detroit could easily be undefeated and looks like a very solid team in a suddenly wide-open NFC.
Pick: Detroit 26, Minnesota 23
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at New York Jets
This looked awful at the start of the season, and it still might be. Yet, the Jaguars (2-1) and Jets (1-2) are giving us something to watch on Sunday. Can Jacksonville make some noise in the AFC South? Can New York get to .500? Depends on Josh McCown and Blake Bortles, and who turns it over less.
Pick: Jacksonville 19, New York 10
Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
We could see some fireworks in this game. The Rams (2-1) are a real team with Jared Goff throwing darts, while the Cowboys (2-1) found themselves in Arizona. If Los Angeles find a way to win, we should pay attention to Sean McVay’s squad.
Pick: Dallas 28, Los Angeles 24
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens
This is going to be a brawl. The Ravens (2-1) aren’t very good, but they play the Steelers (2-1) tough. Both teams are coming off horrid losses. I’m very, very tempted to pick Baltimore in this game. Very.
Pick: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 16
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (PICK)
The Texans (1-2) have to win this game. If they lose to the Titans (2-1) they are two games back in the AFC South and have a pair of divisional losses at home. Tennessee has a chance to drive a stake through the heart, and I think it finds a way behind a punishing ground game.
Pick: Tennessee 20, Houston 17
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Jameis Winston has to stop throwing into double coverage. The Buccaneers (1-1) are talented, but not talented enough to deal with turnovers. The Giants (0-3) absolutely have to win, but can they? Great defense, but a very spotty offense.
Pick: Tampa Bay 21, New York 19
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (PICK)
How the Eagles (2-1) aren’t favored in this game blows me away. The Chargers (0-3) are a bad team. They aren’t unlucky, they’re bad. Philadelphia has to go across the country, but they will handle their business.
Pick: Philadelphia 24, Los Angeles 21
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5)
The Cardinals (1-2) have to win this game to stay realistically in the playoff hunt. The 49ers (0-3) are desperate for their first win of the Kyle Shanahan era, but they don’t get it here.
Pick: Arizona 20, San Francisco 15
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
This could be the best game of Week 4. The Raiders (2-1) and Broncos (2-1) both looked awful on the road last weekend, and now have a huge contest here.
Pick: Denver 26, Oakland 21
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-14)
The Seahawks (1-2) have been bad this season, but something tells me the Colts (1-2) will look like Joe Pesci in the end of Casino after this game.
Pick: Seattle 27, Indianapolis 9
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
The Chiefs (3-0) have been the league’s most impressive team to this point. Kansas City is scoring 31 points per game, largely because of the revelation that is Kareem Hunt. However, the Redskins (2-1) were incredible in their win over the Raiders last Sunday. Can they replicate that primetime performance? Tough ask.
Pick: Kansas City 30, Washington 23
Last week: 6-10
Overall: 24-23