The playoffs come before MLB free agency, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to start firing up the hot stove.
I know what you’re thinking — the postseason is only just beginning. It’s way too early to start thinking about 2018 MLB free agency. That’s where you’re wrong. It’s never too early to fire up the hot stove and start thinking about the offseason. Every GM around the league whose team has been eliminated is already working on his budget and identifying potential targets, and that’s what we’re going to do here.
MLB free agency can turn into a pipe dream, and this post is written trying to avoid getting too fantastical. Jake Arrieta is an obvious fit for the pitching-starved Baltimore Orioles, but there’s a better chance of me becoming President than Arrieta returning to the organization that nearly ruined his career. Likewise, the Tampa Bay Rays would love to bring J.D. Martinez back to his home state. Not going to happen.
The free agents picked for each team all fit within the team’s likely budget for free agents this winter and fill an area of weakness on the roster. Read on to find out which player could be making a big impact on your favorite team next season.
Arizona Diamondbacks: J.D. Martinez
It still defies logic that the Diamondbacks were able to get one of the best all-around power hitters in the game for a package of prospects that did not include a single top-100 minor leaguer. The Detroit Tigers were forced to sell J.D. Martinez extremely low. With Giancarlo Stanton beginning to cool in Miami, Martinez has actually put up the most eye-popping power numbers in baseball in the second half.
Martinez has over 40 home runs despite missing the entire month of April and the early weeks of May. He will play fewer than 120 games this year, but is third in the league in home runs, and will probably stay there. In his first 57 games with Arizona, Martinez has hit .294/.364/.734 with 27 home runs and 58 RBI.
The Diamondbacks can still have a great lineup on their hands if Martinez walks and signs elsewhere, but his presence puts them in the conversation for best lineup in baseball. With only Zack Greinke commanding a massive salary on their current roster, Arizona should also have the necessary funds to keep Martinez.
Atlanta Braves: Doug Fister
The Braves have taken some small steps forward this year in their rebuilding process, but are still a few years away from actually contending. While they wait on their elite pitching prospects to develop and mature, it has been the M.O. of the Atlanta front office to sign inexpensive veteran pitchers to eat innings and shield the youngsters from beatings at the MLB level.
Atlanta had mixed results this year with R.A. Dickey, Bartolo Colon and Jaime Garcia as the veteran anchors of their rotation. Dickey was very good for long stretches, Garcia was fairly dependable before being traded and Colon was flat-out awful before being released.
All John Coppolella and his front office should be looking for this offseason is a rubber-armed veteran who won’t get shelled more often than not. Doug Fister fits that billing, and is coming off a solid rebound year with the Boston Red Sox. The tall right-hander should be looking to move back over to the National League on a multi-year deal, and the Braves can afford that.
Fister was a nice surprise for the Red Sox this season as their rotation was decimated by injuries to David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez for long stretches. He had a very strong month of August where he went 2-2 with a 3.71 ERA in 26.2 innings with 25 strikeouts. Fister will be 34 next year but has struggled with injuries for the past three years after going 51-38 with a 3.11 ERA from 2011 to 2014.
Baltimore Orioles: Alex Cobb
Predicting how much money the Orioles will have available to spend is one of the more difficult tasks each offseason. Owner Peter Angelos has his own hard and fast rules, and is only willing to make concessions when he feels like it. Chris Davis was handed a $161-million contract before the 2016 season, but the industry assumption was that the money was only available for Davis. A deal with center fielder Dexter Fowler fell apart at the last second because the Orioles were unwilling to give an opt-out clause.
The starting rotation has been the most difficult part of the team for GM Dan Duquette to build while working within the constraints of his owner. The Orioles are notorious around the league for their strict physicals, to the point where it is a running joke. Angelos has also been extremely hesitant to spend on pitching, forcing Duquette to pick from the bottom of the barrel when it comes to filling out his rotation. Plenty of promising young prospects have gone on to find success with other organizations almost immediately upon leaving the Baltimore farm system.
Baltimore’s starting pitching ineptitude came to a head this year, and they are staring at a black hole entering the 2018 season with only two established starters under contract, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman. Bringing back struggling starter Chris Tillman on a short-term deal seems like a logical move for the O’s, but they must spend on two more outside names if they hope to make the most out of Manny Machado’s last year under contract.
Jake Arrieta, the best starter in this year’s weak free-agent class, is out of the question. The Orioles will be forced to look further down the list at someone like Alex Cobb. It’s anyone’s best guess if Cobb will be able to pass an Angelos physical though, as he missed all of 2015 and most of 2016 with Tommy John. Two years out from the surgery, Cobb may be ready to resume throwing his split-finger fastball, which was his best pitch. Either way, the Orioles have to suck it up and spend big on starting pitching this winter.
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez
Surprisingly, the Red Sox have been the least powerful team in the American League in 2017. The drop in home runs and slugging in the first year after the retirement of DH David Ortiz has been precipitous and completely unexpected for such a dynamic young core. The Red Sox are still one of the best contact hitting teams in baseball and they rarely strike out.
Boston is a middle-of-the-road team offensively even with the presence of Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. A large heaping of the blame can be placed on Hanley Ramirez. Signing Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval before the 2015 season will go down in MLB history as the worst pair of free-agent acquisitions ever. Ramirez’s slash line this year of .239/.318/.421 is just ugly, and he is under contract for one more year with no defensive value at first base. It would be surprising to see the Red Sox eat the final year of his contract, but not completely out of the question.
J.D. Ramirez is the best power bat on the market this year and has a swing tailor made for the comfy dimensions of Fenway Park. He hits for power to all fields as well as any hitter in the league and would also fit in well with a Red Sox lineup that keeps the line moving.
The only problem with Ramirez as a potential fit for Boston is finding somewhere for him to play. Incumbent first baseman Mitch Moreland is also a free agent at the end of the year, and should be viewed as more of a platoon player than an everyday starter. Top prospect Sam Travis does not offer the same upside as Martinez with the bat. The only question is whether or not Martinez has the ability to pick up first base given an entire offseason to work on it.
Chicago Cubs: Wade Davis
The Cubs have been using stopgap measures at closer the past two seasons. Aroldis Chapman was their second-half play in 2016, but they acquired him with no real intentions of pursuing a long-term deal. This year’s closer Wade Davis was also traded for in his walk year. This time around, the Cubs cannot afford to let their ninth-inning man walk without a strong offer.
Davis has been great in his first year with the Cubs, erasing any doubt about the health of his right arm with a dominant year out of the ‘pen. His strikeout rate has recovered after a drop in 2016 and is almost as high as it was during his best season in 2014. He has blown only one save on the year.
Handing a long-term contract to a closer entering his age-32 season is not the safest of bets, but it is one the Cubs have to make in a year where there are no other fallback options waiting on the market. Brandon Kintzler is a potential option, but he is even older than Davis and has a shorter track record as an elite reliever.
Carl Edwards Jr. has been viewed at times as a potential closer-in-waiting, but his struggles in the second half cast some doubt about his readiness for the job. The Cubs may be forced to take the plunge with Davis on a four-year deal upwards of $60 million.
Chicago White Sox: Wade Miley
The first year of the White Sox rebuild has not been a complete disaster, but their time to contend is still several years away. Their hopes hinge on the development of young pitching prospects, much like the Braves. This year has seen Lucas Giolito rise to the big leagues and perform well, but the White Sox still need to wait on Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez.
Giolito and Lopez should start the 2018 season in the White Sox rotation, and will definitely be joined by James Shields. Beyond those three, the Sox will be looking to fill out their rotation with cheap, veteran innings eaters. It’s not about winning, it’s about getting through the season without putting too much pressure on the young arms and risking their future.
Wade Miley is coming off a miserable year with the Orioles, but he has taken his turn every fifth day with great reliability. Since reaching the big leagues in 2012, Miley has appeared in at least 30 games each season and has been good for at least 150 innings.
Miley is difficult to watch on the mound because he is not blessed with overwhelming stuff. He nibbles around the edges of the strike zone and leads the majors in walks this year. The left-hander will still draw interest in free agency because he is still only 30 and is durable. The White Sox can get him on the cheap and send him out every fifth day. In a year where the results won’t matter, that’s more than enough for a rebuilding team like Chicago.
Cincinnati Reds: Zack Cozart
The Reds are an intriguing team to consider this winter. While their starting pitching is still light years away from being ready to contend, their lineup is one of the most intriguing in the league. Joey Votto’s greatness can not be repeated enough, but the rest of the team has taken a big step forward this season.
Cincinnati has five players this year with at least 25 home runs, and shortstop Zack Cozart is only one shy of joining that group. Speedsters Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza have combined for 80 steals. There are still some flaws with the lineup, but overall, it is very similar to that of the Milwaukee Brewers, an unexpected contender this season.
Cozart’s offensive production took a giant leap in his walk year. His OPS spiked over 100 points from 2016 to 2017, and he has set new career highs in virtually every offensive category despite missing long stretches of the year on the disabled list. Cozart was a first-time All-Star, and his OPS+ of 144 shows how elite his bat has been this year even accounting for the Great American Smallpark.
At 32, Cozart is not a young player, but he presents an interesting test case for the Reds front office as they look to transition away from their rebuild. Cozart was already an elite defensive shortstop. With his bat ticking up to elite levels, he climbs into the upper echelon at the position. It will be up to the Reds to evaluate how sustainable his production levels are. If the front office is confident in their chances to win in the next three years, re-signing Cozart makes sense.
Cleveland Indians: Carlos Santana
The Indians laid down a significant sum of cash last winter to land Edwin Encarnacion to serve as their designated hitter. Even so, the Tribe still ranks 19th this season in team payroll. Another deep postseason run could fuel another leap in spending from ownership.
Cleveland has two major free agents who will hit the market this winter — Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana. Bruce was a late addition at the end of August, and has been productive as a replacement for Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall. Santana has been the full-time first baseman and is having another solid season despite a slight dip in his power numbers.
Santana is in the final year of a six-year, $31.8-million contract and will be seeking to cash in on the open market for the first time in his eight-year career. He is one of the most patient hitters in the league and can be counted on to reach base at an above-average clip.
This will be an interesting offseason for an Indians team that has few obvious weaknesses. First base is the only position of need. Even with an increased budget, Eric Hosmer will still be out of their price range. Logan Morrison or Yonder Alonso are potential options for the Indians, but keeping a familiar face like Santana may be more attractive.
Colorado Rockies: Jonathan Lucroy
The Rockies took a flier on All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy who was having a horrible year with the Texas Rangers. The change of scenery has done the two-time All-Star well, and he has hit .301/.401/.426 in his first 42 games with the Rockies.
Without a solid fallback option, the Rockies need to make a strong effort to re-sign Lucroy this winter. This will be his first and likely only chance to test the market. His value will still be beaten down after an ugly start to the year with Texas. Lucroy’s defense has also slipped this year, but he still has a solid reputation as a backstop..
Lucroy may never hit for much power going forward, but he is still a good on-base hitter who does not strike out often. The Rockies do not need power at every position as long as they get traffic on the bases. The potential is still there for him to hit 20 home runs or more in Coors Field.
If the Rockies do not bring back Lucroy on a long-term deal, they may target Welington Castillo to fill their hole behind the plate. Castillo has drawn mixed reviews for his work framing pitches, but hit 20 home runs this year for the Orioles and has a great arm. Both catchers are good options for the offensive-minded Rockies.
Detroit Tigers: Matt Garza
As evidenced by their play in August and September, things are going to have to be very ugly for the Tigers before they can get better. Very, very ugly. The Tigers neglected their farm system for years and relied much to heavily on free agents to solve their problems. They are paying the price now.
The Tigers will be breaking in a new manager next season with Brad Ausmus getting the ax after nearly losing his job last season. It won’t be an easy job for whoever wins it, and this may not even be the manager who leads the Tigers back into contention. The least the front office can do is give the poor guy another established MLB arm to try and get through the year.
As he enters his age-34 season, veteran starter Matt Garza will be looking for a small deal to keep his career alive. Garza had an ERA near 5.00 this season for Milwaukee and won six games. He will find a way onto a big-league roster at some point next year thanks to his ability to take the ball and eat innings.
For the first time in almost a decade, Tigers fans will not have any reason to be exited this offseason. Their front office was right to pull the plug and begin selling off big names. Detroit will scrape the bottom of the pitching barrel this offseason and add some depth to get through next year.
Houston Astros: Jake Arrieta
The direction the Astros take this offseason will depend on how their playoff run goes this October. Houston has a dangerous lineup, but their World Series hopes hinge on their starting rotation.Trading for Justin Verlander helped solve some of their problems, but Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers are both still question marks.
Keuchel and McCullers could go on a roll in the postseason and make this a moot point, but the only part of their roster that needs attention this winter is the starting rotation. Both Keuchel and McCullers have durability concerns. McCullers still may be more suited for a bullpen role due to the violence with which he throws his curveball.
Texas native Jake Arrieta is the best starting pitcher available this offseason, and the Astros will have to consider him. Houston had an aggressive plan for their winter last year and landed Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick, Charlie Morton and Brian McCann in rapid succession early in the Hot Stove session.
Arrieta has battled injuries and command issues this season, but had his issues figured out before a hamstring injury threatened his status for the postseason. Houston will not need to spend on any position in their lineup, but should have the means to make a run at Arrieta.
Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas
The Royals have three major free agents getting their first chance to test the open market this offseason. Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain are all up at the end of the year. This winter could decide the fate of the Royals for the next five years.
Hosmer is assuredly gone as he will command a deal approaching $200 million given his age, future power potential in a better ballpark, postseason experience and clubhouse presence. J.D. Martinez is the best power hitter on the market this winter, but Hosmer will command a bigger deal because of his youth.
Kansas City made a big bet on Alex Gordon holding onto his defensive value and well-rounded game into his mid-30s. The $72-million deal for the left fielder has proven to be an unmitigated disaster for the Royals after two years. Gordon looks done as a full-time player. Lorenzo Cain is a different type of player than Gordon, but his skills are the type that can erode quickly with wear and tear. Look no further than Adam Jones and Andrew McCutchen for examples of what can happen when a center fielder enters his mid-thirties.
Moustakas has enjoyed a breakout power season for the Royals and has set a new franchise record with 38 bombs. He is entering his age-30 season and is just now beginning to come into his own as a hitter. With only one elite season under his belt, Moustakas may have a harder time finding a nine-figure deal in free agency. The Royals have to at least make him a strong offer.
Los Angeles Angels: Justin Upton
Justin Upton’s status with the 2018 MLB free-agent class is still up in the air. He has the ability to opt out of the final four years and $88 million left on his original six-year contract. Arguably MLB’s streakiest hitter, Upton has a chance to guarantee himself at least one extra year and over $100 million by becoming a free agent.
The Angels attempt at going for it all this year by trading for Upton and Brandon Phillips ultimately came up short, and they will need to stay aggressive this offseason to have any hope of contending again net year. Upton is the protection that Mike Trout needs to help get this team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Baseball’s best player has been forced to do too much by himself with Albert Pujols entering a rapid decline.
Upton has a difficult decision to consider here. He is entering his age-30 season and his contract runs through 2021 when he will be 34. Upton could stay in the current contract until it runs out and find a three-year contract, but at a lesser annual value. His value may be at its highest point as he gets ready to enter the early years of his thirties. Upton’s power numbers are the best of his career and he has new bests in home runs and RBI.
My gut is telling me Upton will elect to go back out on the market where he will be the second-best outfielder available. He should still be able to find another contract in the range of six years and $130 million — essentially a two-year extension of his current contract. The Angels should have pursued Upton more aggressively after the 2015 season and they cannot afford to let him get away a second time.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Addison Reed
Admittedly, the team that was on pace for much of the year to win 120 games does not have many obvious holes to fill heading into the offseason. The Dodgers are set in the rotation even if they let Yu Darvish walk (which seems probable considering they were not wildly enthused about signing Zack Greinke to a $200-million deal two years ago). They are also locked into their starters around the diamond and have a handful of elite prospects knocking on the door.
For all of the money the Dodgers have spent recently, a quality bullpen has eluded them. With the exception of closer Kenley Jansen, Dodgers fans have been forced to nervously watch their middle relief men and hope for the best. With no other key free agents to address this winter, now is the time for the Dodgers to make a stronger investment in their bullpen.
Right-hander Addison Reed is the best and youngest in a deep group of free-agent middle relievers this year. He does have closing experience and has improved steadily since making his debut in 2011 at the age of 22. Reed should fit well in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. He can become prone to the longball at times, but that is less of an issue in a park where the ball does not fly.
The Dodgers have scaled back their free-agent spending in recent years as Andrew Friedman tries to get the budget under control. With Clayton Kershaw’s opt-out date looming, failing to get to the World Series this year could force the front office to spend more than they want to.
Miami Marlins: Lance Lynn
With the sale to Derek Jeter’s group finally approved and set to go through, this will be an interesting offseason to keep an eye on the Marlins. We still don’t know how aggressive this new group plans to be in financing the Marlins. Previous owner Jeffrey Loria could be counted on to spend big every few years before blowing it up and cutting payroll when things went south. The new owners have been mum on their plans with Giancarlo Stanton and his $325-million contract that is about to get a lot more expensive on a yearly basis.
I’d like to believe the Marlins will be going for it with Jeter at the helm. An MLB icon like Jeets is not throwing his money into a franchise just to lose games and make the playoffs once every ten years. The Marlins have an exciting core of position players to build around now, and they could contend with the right pitching. Obviously, the death of Jose Fernandez was a devastating blow to the team, and it left them without an ace to carry the rotation.
Miami’s move to sign Wei-yin Chen to a five-year deal is one they’d like to undo in hindsight. Acquiring Dan Straily, on the other hand, looks like a very smart move. Straily has been unspectacular but dependable this year.
Right-hander Lance Lynn is a year removed from Tommy John, but returned to the mound with solid numbers that closely match his career norms. He is approaching 200 innings and has an ERA under 3.50. The advanced metrics don’t love Lynn this year, but there may need to be some re-calibration in this new era where nearly 50 players hit 30 home runs.
Milwaukee Brewers: Travis Shaw
Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw is not actually a free agent this winter. In fact, he’s not even eligible for arbitration until after the 2018 season. Shaw is completing his third season in the big leagues and first in Milwaukee. Now is the perfect time to be thinking long-term extension so that the Brewers can lock Shaw up on a team-friendly deal.
These team-friendly extensions that buy up early years of a player’s free agency are the lifeblood of small-market teams like the Brewers. The Indians are in position to go to another World Series because they have had Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana and Jose Ramirez locked into cheap contracts for several years. This has allowed them to spend more for the bigger names to round out their roster like Andrew Miller and Edwin Encarnacion.
Shaw may be willing to start talking about an extension with the Brewers. His career got a late start with the Red Sox as he was already 25 when he made his MLB debut in 2015. Shaw will be entering his age-28 season next year and will not get to test the open market until his thirties. Coming off a career year with 30 doubles and 30 home runs, Shaw should cash in now before getting into arbitration.
In terms of in-house free agents the Brewers need to keep, the top priority would be reliever Anthony Swarzak who has blossomed this year after a middling start to his career.
Minnesota Twins: Jason Vargas
The Twins are going to the playoffs this year despite rolling out a rotation that has included Bartolo Colon, Dillon Gee, Kyle Gibson and Adalaberto Mejia. Teams that give starts to this group are supposed to finish in last place, and the Twins FIP of 4.74 is one of the worst in the league, but crazy things happen in baseball.
Minnesota defied the odds in every way imaginable to get to the playoffs, riding Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios while hoping everyone else did a semi-competent job on their turn to start. With a weakened AL Central, that was more than enough to get the job done. Expecting that approach to work out as well next year would be foolish. Remember, the Twins nearly made the playoffs against all statistical models in 2015 before losing 103 games with most of the same roster in 2016. Ask the Orioles how quickly a team’s fortunes can change when pinning your hopes on a mediocre starting rotation that has to beat FIP to win every year.
Financially, the Twins are at a disadvantage to the rest of the league, so they won’t be going out and making a play for the top starting pitchers. They should have no problem affording one of the second-tier names like Jason Vargas. Much like Twins ace Santana, Vargas rides his cutter and changeup to get weak contact.
Despite losing almost two full years to elbow trouble, Vargas is 57-41 since 2012 with a 3.85 ERA. He can be counted on to eat up innings and keep his team in the game like a veteran starter should. His style of pitching should play well in spacious Target Field where he will also benefit from the cooler weather of Minneapolis early in the year.
New York Mets: Mike Moustakas
The Mets have essentially been held hostage at third base by David Wright the past three years. The captain of the team has only played 75 games since the start of the 2015 season as he deals with spinal stenosis and associated injuries to his shoulder. Wright has brushed aside any talk of retirement, but played only three games of a rehab assignment this year. He is owed $47 million through 2020. The Mets and Wright should come to an agreement about the remaining money owed to Wright and attempt to move on.
Mike Moustakas is the best third baseman on the market this offseaosn, and a perfect fit for the Mets if they do ultimately find a way to move on from Wright (or attempt one last try with him as a first baseman). Moustakas is coming off the best year of his career and would provide a long-term answer at third base.
The 2017 season will go down as a lost year for the Mets, but they can still contend again next year if ownership is willing to spend money to address the weaknesses in the roster. The Mets were able to skate by with a weak lineup in 2015 and 2016 thanks to their dominant rotation. When the starters hit the shelf this year, the Mets crumbled right along with them.
New York’s National League team plays with a different budget than their Bronx rivals, but they must make an attempt to continue contending while Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are still relatively inexpensive.
New York Yankees: Eric Hosmer
Late-season surge of Greg Bird not withstanding, first base has been the only real weakness for the 2017 Yankees as they surge back up the standings and return to the playoffs. The Yankees are on the verge of contending for the World Series every year and retaking their status as scourge of the American League. They do not have to give up on Bird just yet, but it will be hard to pass on a free agent like Eric Hosmer.
Hosmer looks like he was made to play for the Yankees. He is good looking, charismatic, young and has a sweet left-handed stroke that is tailored for the short porch in right field. In the right park and division, Hosmer can easily blossom into a 40-homer type of hitter without sacrificing his high batting average.
There are few teams around the league who can afford to make Hosmer the type of offer he will be seeking this winter. He will be 28 next year and is just beginning to enter his offensive prime. If Jason Heyward was able to command $184 million with inferior offensive numbers, Hosmer could easily crack $200 million.
The Yankees have pared back their free-agent spending in recent years, but are positioned well to make a run at a big name this winter. Their pursuit of Hosmer could hinge on how much confidence the organization is willing to put in Bird going forward. He is still young, and if healthy, has star potential.
Oakland Athletics: Miguel Gonzalez
With signs of life coming from the A’s offense in the second half, Billy Beane is getting closer to fielding a ballclub that can contend again for a few years before it gets too expensive. For Oakland, cycles of contention have typically been led by the development of young starting pitching. This time around, it is the hitters leading the charge while the rotation takes its time to develop.
The A’s can either get lucky with pitching prospects or hitting prospects maturing and developing into All-Stars. Getting both at the same time would be next to impossible on their budget. Beane and his front office will gladly take what they’ve gotten from Ryon Healy, Matt Olson and Khris Davis while hoping Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton can deliver on their immense potential.
Oakland will have to supplement their starting rotation with a little outside help this winter, and a name that makes some sense on a short-term deal is right-hander Miguel Gonzalez who split this season between the White Sox and Texas Rangers. Gonzalez was cut by the Orioles before the start of the 2016 season, but rebounded to go 13-20 with a 4.20 ERA since.
Gonzalez is a fly-ball pitcher who has been battered in his brief time with the Rangers this season. He is best suited for a park like Oakland’s that keeps home runs in the park. The A’s could do worse than adding a pitcher of his caliber on a two-year deal and hoping he can be flipped for more prospects at the trade deadline.
Philadelphia Phillies: Eduardo Nunez
The Phillies are a rebuilding team that should consider beginning to spend money in an effort to ramp up for the epic class of free agents that will hit the market after the 2018 season. The Phillies are beginning to see returns on their rebuild with talented young players beginning to take over around the diamond with solid results. With all due respect to Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins may be the best rookie in the NL this year. Nick Williams and Aaron Altherr have also played well in the outfield next to Odubel Herrera.
Philadelphia is close to fielding a winning team, but the starting rotation took a big step back this year. The options on the market this winter are sparse, and the Phillies will have to wait out another year of development and hope that Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff can bounce back.
Maikel Franco was one of the most disappointing players in the league this year, but the Phillies have no one to push him. For better or worse, Franco was going to start this year despite his miserable production. He may not be the franchise building block the Phillies thought they were getting.
The Red Sox will be making an aggressive push to retain utility infielder Eduardo Nunez, but he would be the perfect addition to the Phillies next year. He can play every infield position and would bring the type of veteran leadership Franco and the youngsters need to take the next step forward.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Andrew Cashner
Despite the rumblings that Andrew McCutchen may have just played his last home game with the Pirates, there have been no real rumblings that a trade is imminent. The Pirates would have traded McCutchen in July if they were serious about starting a rebuild. His value will not increase dramatically this offseason as he enters his walk year.
The Pirates have not given a direct signal about their plans for the 2018 season, but holding onto most key trade chips at this year’s deadline seems to indicate that they would like to make one last push at contending with their current group of players before surrendering. The roster is still solid enough to have dreams of getting back to winning again in 2018.
Pittsburgh will need to supplement their rotation this winter if they are serious about going for it next year. They are set at the top with Gerrit Cole and Ivan Nova, but the remaining three spots are still up for grabs. Prospects Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow may be more suited to bullpen work than starting if their command cannot improve.
Andrew Cashner is the type of pitcher who is suited to work with Pirates pitching guru Ray Searage. Pittsburgh has been very successful with pitchers who can ride their two-seam fastballs to plenty of groundballs and weak contact. Cashner is one of the best in the league in that regard. The big right-hander pitched to a solid ERA this year, but teams may be scared off by his very low strikeout rate and peripheral stats that point to a regression next year. If the Pirates can get Cashner on a deal similar to Nova’s they should pull the trigger.
San Diego Padres: Jeremy Hellickson
The Jeremy Hellickson era in Baltimore was short and painful. The 2011 AL Rookie of the Year was supposed to be the answer to the Orioles many rotation problems at the trade deadline, but in reality, all he did was allow the team to limit Dylan Bundy’s innings total. In 10 starts with Baltimore, Hellickson went 2-6 with a 6.97 ERA. He allowed 13 home runs in 51.2 innings.
Hellickson was clearly a poor fit for the American League East with its hitter-friendly parks and stacked lineups. He does not strike many hitters out and gives up home runs in bunches. His only hope at this point is to keep throwing his changeups and mid-90s fastballs over the plate and hope for enough weak fly balls. That isn’t going to cut it in the AL East, and the Orioles will move on.
The Padres are a possible landing spot for the 30-year-old. Petco Park is still one of the best parks in the league for a fly-ball pitcher like Hellickson. He has been good enough at times to warrant a short deal for $8-10 million a year. Hellickson is set for life after taking the qualifying offer from the Phillies last year. He would be best served now by attempting to find a new home in a park and division that is better aligned with his arsenal.
San Francisco Giants: CC Sabathia
The Giants will be entering the offseason coming off their worst season since the 1980s. Things got ugly in a hurry in 2017 — completely unexpected for one of the best run organizations in baseball. The Giants are built around their starting rotation with a solid, but unspectacular core of hitters. The rotation completely failed them this year after Madison Bumgarner injured himself riding a dirt bike.
Is there a quick fix out there for the Giants? That’s not an easy question to answer. Their hopes for next year will hinge on the performances of Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. The latter has the ability to opt out at the end of the 2017 season, but will likely be forced to stick it out in San Francisco after an ugly year. Samardzija had a better year, but is still a longshot to ever live up to his massive contract.
With Matt Cain retiring and Matt Moore hitting free agency after a 6-15 year, the Giants could have as many as three spots in their rotation to fill. Their focus should be on adding a high-upside veteran arm. There is no help coming from one of MLB’s worst farm systems. Left-handed pitcher CC Sabathia’s contract with the Yankees is finally up, and he may be looking for a new home.
Sabathia has reinvented himself as a pitcher the last two years and has found a way to be effective with diminished velocity. He has a sub-4.00 ERA two years in a row now in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. If Sabathia can find the right home for himself, he may be able to stretch his career out another three or four years. That would give him an outside shot at making the Hall of Fame. San Francisco’s AT&T Park is an ideal home for Sabathia as he looks to keep his career going.
Seattle Mariners: Yu Darvish
The Mariners did not spend over $300 million on Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz to continue not making the playoffs. It’s going on almost two decades since the M’s last made the playoffs in their magical 2001 season. Seattle has one of the best offenses in baseball led by Cano, Cruz, Jean Segura, Kyle Seager and the bust formerly known as Mike Zunino.
Try as he might, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto has not been able to build a strong rotation around his best pitcher. Felix Hernandez was previously the team’s ace. His time has passed, and the title goes to James Paxton. Durability issues may always plague Paxton, but he is as good as any number one in the league except perhaps Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber.
Dipoto did his best to build a rotation behind Paxton and Hernandez this year, but Ariel Miranda wound up being the team’s healthiest starter. The Mariners will need to focus on adding a top-flight arm this winter, not dumpster diving on the trade market as they have done in the past.
Yu Darvish could be at home in Seattle, a city with a prominent Japanese population and lineage of Japanese players dating back to Ichiro and Kazuhiro Sasaki. He would also be returning ot the AL West, a division he dominated while with the Rangers. Darvish has been spotty at times this year, and his strikeouts are down below the best levels of his first years in the big leagues. I’d say the Mariners should go all in on Shohei Otani, but he wants to hit and they don’t have room for him.
St. Louis Cardinals: Eric Hosmer
The market for Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer will be strong this winter, but the Yankees and Cardinals figure to be the two most aggressive teams in pursuit of his services. At the end of the day, St. Louis may need Hosmer more than the Yankees. Try as they might, the Cardinals have not been able to give away $200 million, whiffing on David Price and Jason Heyward in free agency.
This may finally be the year the Cards are able to give away the big money. The front office certainly should have the motivation. Put a player like Hosmer on this years Cardinals team, and they are likely the NL Central champs and a World Series contender thanks to their strong rotation.
Hosmer has played his entire career in Missouri, and would fit in well with the Cardinals clubhouse. Making space for him in the starting lineup would require the Cardinals to get creative. Matt Carpenter is entrenched at first base and going nowhere. Carpenter has played other positions around the infield, but those are now being occupied by Kolten Wong, Paul DeJong and Jedd Gyorko.
The weakest spot for the Cardinals is right field, where Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk have failed to step up. Wong or Gyorko may have to pick up an outfielder’s mitt on a full-time basis if the Cardinals can reel in Hosmer and keep him in Missouri.
Tampa Bay Rays: Mark Reynolds
The Rays struck gold with first baseman Logan Morrison this season, getting nearly 40 home runs out of the journeyman first baseman who is on a cheap contract. LoMo is heading back out to free agency this year, and should be looking for a longer-term deal that may be out of the Rays price range. The front office will have to turn to a deep pool of power-hitting free agents to replace him.
Mark Reynolds has played the last two years of his career with the Rockies, and his $1.5-million salary this season was one of the best bargains in the league. Reynolds bailed the Rockies out when Ian Desmond was injured in Spring Training and Carlos Gonzalez struggled all year. Once a free swinger who was good for 200 strikeouts a year, Reynolds has found contact much easier to come by in Colorado.
Reynolds fell into a starting role with the Rockies this year, but there are no guarantee for him there next year and beyond. He has proven that he is still more than capable of being an everyday player, not a platoon or bench option. Colorado is a good fit for his skills and power, but Reynolds should be looking for the best situation for himself. That means a place where he is certain to start.
Tampa Bay will always have to look for power at the lower end of the financial spectrum. Reynolds will fall into the second tier of power hitters available. The Rays may actually be able to afford to sign him and bring Morrison back to form a rotation between first base and DH with Corey Dickerson.
Texas Rangers: Shohei Otani
Someone is going to pony up all of their international signing pool cash to land Shohei Otani, and the Rangers are one of the few teams that can afford to make the aggressive move to sign the most intriguing Japanese prospect in MLB history. Otani will be forgoing millions of dollars by coming over this winter, but he is ready and wants to play in the big leagues now.
There are still plenty of unknowns with Otani, but he will come to the big leagues without the massive bonuses of the best Cuban prospects or the huge long-term contract of his older Japanese predecessors. Otani can touch triple digits with his fastball and hits tape-measure home runs. If you can afford to do it, you blow your entire budget to get him.
The Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Rangers all figure to be among the most aggressive teams courting Otani. He has been steadfast in his desire to play both ways in the United States. That should rule out a National League team that will not want to risk playing a pitcher in the outfield a few times a week. The Rangers have as strong a chance as anyone to land Otani because he idolizes Yu Darvish, who signed with the Rangers out of Japan.
Otani is the replacement the Rangers need for Darvish, and they can also find a spot for him at DH. This is a once-in-a-generation player, and the Rangers need to find a way to get back to the World Series before the end of Adrian Beltre’s career.
Toronto Blue Jays: Lorenzo Cain
The writing is on the wall, and Jose Bautista has likely played his last game with the Blue Jays. The end of the Joey Bats Era in Toronto will leave the team seeking a replacement right fielder in free agency this winter. Coming off a disappointing season, the Jays will look to retool their roster during the offseason.
The mounting loss total this year did allow the Blue Jays to begin taking a longer look at some of their younger players. Teoscar Hernandez should take over a full-time job in one of the corners next season. J.D. Martinez would be an ideal target for the Blue Jays to replace Bautista, but he appears to have found a home in Arizona. Toronto’s payroll has increased dramatically in recent years, but they’re still not winning a bidding war with anyone for the top free agents.
It’s hard to get a read on the market for Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain. Thirty-two next April, Cain has hit .300/.352/.438 over the past four years with 109 doubles, 45 home runs and 95 stolen bases. He was a late bloomer, not establishing himself as an MLB regular until his age-27 season. Cain has less mileage on his legs than a typical player his age.
I’m not sure what to make of Cain’s free-agent case. He has never had a 20-homer or 30-steal season and only has one 30-double season. His on-base percentage is nothing special. Cain feels like a player who was very valuable to the Royals group effort, but may not find an overwhelming amount of interest in free agency. One things for sure, pairing him with Hernandez and Kevin Pillar in the Blue Jays outfield would be death to all flying things.
Washington Nationals: Anthony Swarzak
The Nationals tried unsuccessfully the past two years to sign Yoenis Cespedes, Ben Zobrist, Kenley Jansen, Justin Upton, Mark Melancon and Aroldis Chapman. Giving money away isn’t as easy as one would think when large chunks of the salary are deferred to the future. The Nationals get some relief in the payroll department this winter when Jayson Werth’s big contract finally runs out, but don’t have any pressing needs to fill on the roster.
Washington already has Werth’s replacement in house with Michael A. Taylor stepping up to have a big year in the place of the injured Adam Eaton in center field. They can save most of their money to gear up to make an attempt to re-sign Bryce Harper next winter.
The bullpen was the big issue for the Nationals early in the 2017 season, but most of the holes in the relief core were addressed at the trade deadline with the additions of Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler.
Kintzler will be a free agent this winter, and could come back to the Nationals. He is 33 and a pitch-to-contact type. Washington should have more interest in a reliever who can pile up the strikeouts like Anthony Swarzak of the Brewers. The right-hander’s career really took off this year after he ditched his other pitches and focused solely on throwing his fastball and slider.
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Expect the Nats to make an addition to their bullpen to keep it functioning at the same high level as the second half this season. It would also not come as a shock to see them re-sign starter Gio Gonzalez who is coming off a strong year. The 32-year-old left-hander is coming off his best year since 2012.