Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani is ready to bring his talents to Major League Baseball, and there has not been a player like him in decades.
It’s one of the most intriguing cases of free agency in my lifetime. Japan’s Babe Ruth, Shohei Ohtani, is forcing his way over to Major League Baseball and potentially leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table. Because he is still only 23, Ohtani must go through the same international signing rules as the teenagers that come out of Latin America every year.
Those rules will set up one of the most fascinating pursuits of a free agent in MLB history. Ohtani is effectively a five-star recruit, and every team must pitch him on why they are the best fit. The right-hander will not be in line for a gargantuan bonus like Japanese imports like Ichiro Suzuki, Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsusaka who came before him. The most Ohtani will claim is just over $3.5 million.
Ohtani has effectively signaled that he is not out for money alone. It will be all about the relationship, opportunity to win and fit when he does sign. The MLBPA and Japanese baseball league are still trying to come to terms on the posting process, but Ohtani will find a way to make the leap to Major League Baseball for the 2018 season one way or another.
The 23-year-old is the best two-way prospect to come along in decades, and he is set on trying to make it work as both a pitcher and a hitter. In five seasons for the Nippon Ham Fighters, he is a .286/.358/.500 hitter with 30 home runs in 525 at-bats over the past two years. On the mound, he has gone 42-15 with a 2.52 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine. Ohtani’s 2017 season as a pitcher was cut short due to arm issues, but he has been managed very well to this point of his career, never throwing more than 160 innings in a single year.
Ohtani’s preference to remain a hitter would seem to rule out every National League team as a potential landing spot. It’s difficult to imagine a GM feeling great about having a potential number-one starter playing left field a few days a week. His best arrangement would involve time at DH between starts. I’m also assuming that even though money isn’t a huge concern up front, Ohtani would still prefer to play in a major media market. So, with those caveats, these are the top five potential landing spots for Shohei Ohtani.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
The 2017 season was one to forget for the Toronto Blue Jays, who sunk to fourth place in the AL East due to a combination of injury, age and anemic offense. Projected ace Aaron Sanchez made only eight starts and threw 36 innings while dealing with blister issues all year long. That should be an easily correctable problem, especially, if, you know, MLB stops juicing the baseballs and the seams go back to normal.
The Jays are an attractive potential landing spot for Shohei Ohtani and they could certainly use his services to fill out their rotation and add a power bat to a lineup seeking direction after the end of the Jose Bautista/Edwin Encarnacion era. Ohtani would slide right into an already solid rotation, bumping Joe Biagini back to the bullpen.
Toronto is a large, cosmopolitan city with plenty of international marketing juice. Sporting culture in the city is second to none, and the fans are wildly passionate about their teams. Even with their struggles last season, the Jays are still set up to win thanks to a solid starting rotation and top prospects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they have hardly any money left in their international bonus pool to make a competitive offer to Ohtani. Toronto has only $50,000 left to spend, which pales in comparison to some of the other teams figuring to make a big push to land the phenom. However, the Blue Jays are still worthy of consideration for Ohtani, and he does not seem overly focused on money. There are other ways to make the money back off the field, and Canada’s biggest market offers plenty of opportunities in that regard.
4. Seattle Mariners
Folks, it is with great pleasure that I am ready to announce that Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto is at it again. MLB’s wheelingest and dealingest general manager has spent the first few weeks of the offseason maneuvering to grab more international pool money. On Thursday, he moved pitcher Thyago Vieira to the Chicago White Sox for an extra $500,000 of bonus money. That can only point to the Mariners gearing up to make an aggressive push for Shohei Ohtani.
With the latest move, the Mariners have over $1.5 million of offer the Japanese pitcher/slugger. That’s not quite as much as the other high rollers with international bonus cash to burn, but it’s up there. Only four teams can offer Ohtani upwards of seven figures, and the Mariners can offer a very compelling recruiting pitch — and they definitely need help in the starting pitching department.
No team in the league has been a better destination for Japanese players than Seattle. The city has a high Japanese population, making it an easy jump across the Pacific ocean from a cultural standpoint. The Mariners have counted Ichiro Suzuki, Hisashi Iwakuma, Kaz Sasaki and Kenji Johjima among their ranks over the years and all have been embraced heartily by the city and fans.
I also would not count out the Mariners in the pursuit of Yu Darvish, and if they can reel him in, that could make them a lock to sign Ohtani. The Mariners do not have a hugely pressing need for an extra DH, seeing as Nelson Cruz played only five games in the outfield last year. Cruz’s deal is up at the end of the year, so if Ohtani can handle limited at-bats this year, his time as a hitter could come in 2019.
3. Minnesota Twins
Apparently the Twins are interested in pursuing Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish this winter. That’s cute. At this stage of the offseason, general managers can say literally anything they want with little to no repercussions. So, sure, the Twins can meet with Arrieta or Darvish at the Winter Meetings, just like every single NCAA FBS school sends a recruiting letter to the best player in the country. Shooters shoot.
It’s admirable that the Twins are going to feign interest in Arrieta and Darvish when they have no realistic chance to sign either of them. Minnesota is coming off an incredibly surprising season only a year removed from a 100-loss season. The current roster has been built largely following the same formula that delivered multiple playoff teams in the early 2000s — homegrown, scrappy hitters and passable starting pitching. To take the next step in the American League and become a contender that everyone will take seriously year in and year out, the Twins must have a bona fide ace.
If they can’t land a premier free agent, the Twins should focus their attention on trying to land Shohei Ohtani. For about what it will cost for one year of Darvish or Arrieta, they can have the most dynamic two-way player to come along in decades. Ohtani would complete a rotation that already has the solid Ervin Santana and up-and-coming Jose Berrios.
As much as the Twins might like Ohtani, getting him to Minneapolis is still a longshot. For starters, the Twins are not a team that can necessarily afford to sink their entire international budget into one player. Ohtani’s worth it, but a small-market team like the Twins needs a constant influx of talent in the minor leagues. They may also still be feeling burned by their last big Asian import, Korean slugger Byung-ho Park, who hit just .191/.275/.409 in 62 games in 2016 and did not play a single game at the MLB level in 2017.
2. Texas Rangers
The Rangers are the only team with a full international bonus pool to throw Ohtani’s way. Assuming they want to offer him the entire sum available, Texas is one of the few teams with a farm system solid enough to absorb a year without adding to their depth with Latin American talent. The Rangers have always excelled at making the most of the international market, and that could help them land Ohtani.
Texas should be an intriguing potential destination for Ohtani, given the team’s connection to Yu Darvish, who also pitched for the Nippon Ham Fighters before being posted. Obviously, Ohtani won’t base his entire decision around pitching for the same team as Darvish, but any little bit helps in what equates to a five-star recruiting process. The Rangers will still have to sell their opportunity to Ohtani if they meet the posting fee.
First baseman/DH Mike Napoli is a free agent again this winter, leaving the Rangers with a potential opening at DH for Ohtani if they move Joey Gallo into a full-time role at first base. Gallo played first base, third base and outfield last season. He isn’t particularly skilled defensively at any position, but Gallo can make a competent first baseman.
With the ability to offer the most money and an organization set up to continue contending for the near future, the Rangers should make an attractive landing spot for the Japanese phenom. Texas might be a culture shock for Ohtani, but if Darvish could handle it, so can he.
1. New York Yankees
With their farm system filled to the brim with talent, the Yankees can afford to blow their entire international bonus pool allotment to sign Ohtani. They also need to fill one more slot in their rotation and have a hole at DH. Everything points to the Yankees being a prime player in the Ohtani sweepstakes, especially if the posting rules are kept as they are right now.
What Ohtani is giving up in terms of upfront salary, the Yankees can more than make up for with marketing, exposure and a big contract extension down the road. Money and fame don’t seem like the primary drivers for this particular pitcher since he is willing to come over early, forgoing what would surely be a $200-million deal. Still, Ohtani must have some interest in becoming an international superstar, and there are few places better for that than New York City, playing for the most recognizable franchise in the league.
As it currently stands, the Yankees have one more opening in their starting rotation behind Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, Sonny Gray and likely Jordan Montgomery. It’s not a rotation where Ohtani would be expected to step in and assume the mantle of ace while throwing 200 innings. There will be a learning curve for the 23-year-old who has never topped 175 innings in Japan and made only five starts last season.
Next: MLB Offseason: Top 50 free agents
Seriously, though, what better place for the Japanese Babe Ruth to start his MLB career than in New York and the House that Ruth Kinda Built? The Yankees have a favorable park for Ohtani as a hitter, a fellow Japanese ace in Tanaka and a low-pressure slot at the back of their rotation for him to ease into. The Yankees are where I’d put my money if I were betting on Ohtani’s landing spot.