Super Bowl LII is over, so with an early look ahead to next year here are my top 10 favorites to win Super Bowl LIII.
Super Bowl LII, and the 2017 NFL season, is in the books. Free agency and the draft will reshape rosters a bit, and the playoff teams in the league change a lot every year. But there are some teams that never go away as annual playoff participants and Super Bowl contenders to some degree, with stability in all the key areas you might expect.
With a lot of time before Week 1 to shape opinions and predictions for the 2018 season, odds for teams to win Super Bowl LIII next February will surely change too. But it’s never too early to speculate on the favorites to win the Lombardi Trophy next year, and put them in some sort of order.
So with that in mind, here are my top 10 favorites to win Super Bowl LIII on February 3, 2019 in Atlanta.
10. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have a significant question heading into next season, with all three quarterbacks they had on the roster headed for free agency in March. Case Keenum could be back, Teddy Bridgewater could get a chance or another free agent could be coming.
But Minnesota has a top-notch defense and solid skill position talent to make who the quarterback is less important than his ability to be a complementary piece that comes through in critical moments. There’s a case for them to be higher on this list, as a reigning conference title game participant, but current uncertainty at the most important position in football bumps the Vikings down to No. 10.
9. Houston Texans
The Texans went a dismal 4-12 in 2017, due in part to major injuries on both sides of the ball. J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus combined to play 10 games with one sack, and after being a revelation for five straight games quarterback Deshaun Watson went down with a torn ACL.
Watson has a chance to be ready for Week 1, which would give Bill O’Brien a capable signal caller and one of the better quarterback-wide receiver duos in the league in Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. Even with a down year defensively, the fact defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel became the Tennessee Titans head coach speaks to the level of talent on that side of the ball. With Romeo Crennel stepping back into the coordinator role, Houston only needs better health to again have one of the league’s best defenses.
With a good young quarterback, a legit No. 1 wide receiver, a solid running game and a top-tier defense on all levels when everyone’s healthy, the Texans can win games in a variety of ways. The AFC South looks sure to be pretty competitive next year, but Houston has one of the best collections of talent in the AFC and arguably the entire league.
8. Green Bay Packers
Without Aaron Rodgers for most of the 2017 season with a broken collarbone, the Packers became exactly what we thought they’d be without one of the best quarterbacks in the league-out of the playoffs with a 7-9 record. An overhaul of the coaching staff and a reshuffling of the front office was the reaction almost immediately, to try and maximize what’s left of Rodgers’ prime at 34 years old and perhaps shift from former general manager Ted Thompson’s long-held disdain for being aggressive in free agency.
As long as Rodgers is around and healthy, the Packers will be among the better teams in the NFC and a threat to go to the Super Bowl every year. The addition of some better talent defensively, and a fresh perspective on that side of the ball from new coordinator Mike Pettine, will only help the balance of the team.
A Rodgers-led offense, and an average defense that held its ground and forced turnovers in key situations, would be enough to bring the Packers an NFC North title and no less than a home game for the Wild Card Round in the playoffs. The NFC was absolutely wide open this past year, and it looks likely to stay that way for a few more years as teams rise and fall. The Packers have a great chance to rise again next season.
7. Seattle Seahawks
My preseason pick to win the NFC this year didn’t even make the playoffs. In the immediate aftermath of that underachievement, Pete Carroll overhauled his coaching staff and it will be different practically from top to bottom. On top of that, injuries, salary cap concerns and free agency will bring offseason questions about how the once-vaunted defense, including the “Legion of Boom”, will look going forward.
But the combination of Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson will keep the Seahawks in the conversation among the best teams in the NFC, and in the league as a whole, until further notice. If the offensive line and the running back situation can be upgraded even marginally, assuming a representative performance from the defense, a jump right back to the top of the NFC West and possibly into a first-round playoff bye could come for the Seahawks next season.
It will be easy to forget all about the Seahawks heading into next season. But they’re out there with 30/1 odds to win Super Bowl LIII as of this writing, and it won’t take a back-breaking bet (where it’s legal to do it, of course) to get a nice payout if they happen to pull it off.
6. New Orleans Saints
For basically the first time since winning the Super Bowl eight years ago, the Saints had a defense that was not a total sieve in 2017. They also had great balance offensively that they haven’t typically had, with the fifth-best rush offense in the league (129.4 yards per game) and Drew Brees failing to attempt more than 600 passes for the first time since that 2009 Super Bowl season.
The Saints’ place on this list, at No. 6 or at all really, is largely predicated on Brees (who is technically gong to be a free agent) returning. He and the team are saying the right things regarding wanting to stay and wanting him back, but there’s a chance some back-channeling is already being done to see what other teams would have interest in Brees if he were available.
If Brees leaves, New Orleans would be in the market for a veteran quarterback to take the reigns of a team that has the other pieces to be a Super Bowl contender. Cap space would be a concern, but a dip into the top of the free agent quarterback market would not necessarily be out of the question.
Piggybacking on @ProFootballTalk a bit here, but let’s say Drew Brees leaves the Saints-do they enter the market for Kirk Cousins? Should they?
— Brad Berreman (@bradberreman24) January 21, 2018
“The Minneapolis Miracle” kept the Saints from reaching the NFC Championship Game, where they would have been the favorite to beat the Philadelphia Eagles and go to Super Bowl LII. So it’s easy to see luck evening out some next year, and New Orleans going into a division rival’s stadium for Super Bowl LIII.
5. Atlanta Falcons
There was very little post-blown lead in the Super Bowl hangover for the Falcons in 2017. They had 10 regular season wins, along with a Wild Card Round win over the Los Angeles Rams. The line between winning and losing gets even thinner in the playoffs, and an incredibly botched final offensive series of the game is all that really kept the Falcons from beating the Philadelphia Eagles and going to the NFC Championship Game for the second straight year.
New offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian took a lot of heat for Atlanta’s drop-off on that side of the ball, and mostly rightfully so. But Matt Ryan also struggled in Kyle Shanahan’s first season as offensive coordinator in 2015, before rebounding to have an MVP season in 2016. The rapport between a quarterback and a new offensive coordinator can take some time to develop, even with a veteran quarterback like Ryan in place, so the Falcons’ offense is easily in line to rebound next year.
The Vikings nearly became, until a blowout loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, the first NFL team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium. At this point the Falcons have just as good, if not a better, chance to do it next season and represent the NFC in Super Bowl LIII.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
After a long run as one of the worst teams in the league and 3-13 season in 2016, the Jaguars rebounded to go 10-6, win the AFC South and make the playoffs for the first time since 2007 in 2017. A talent-laden defense and a strong running game on the back of rookie running back Leonard Fournette, and less of Blake Bortles passing, was the formula for success. New lead front office man Tom Coughlin brought a quick change of the culture in Jacksonville.
Jacksonville had New England on the ropes for much of the first half of the AFC Championship Game, and they took a 14-10 lead into halftime with Patriots’ tight end Rob Gronkowski going out of the game with a concussion. They also carried a 20-10 lead into the fourth quarter, with a road upset and trip to Minneapolis for Super Bowl LII close enough to smell, before Tom Brady fully became Tom Brady and led a late comeback.
Regardless of who the quarterback is, Bortles or someone else (Alex Smith? Kirk Cousins?), the Jaguars have the other pieces in place to make a deep playoff run again next season. The AFC South looks to be a competitive next year, with two 2017 playoff teams and two teams looking to recapture some recent success. But the Jaguars have to the favorite to win the division until further notice, and now they have playoff experience to lean on to foster another deep run.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Based strictly on talent, and having one of the best head coaches in the league, the Steelers will be a perpetual Super Bowl contender until further notice. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger seems to be committed to playing three more seasons now, and assuming Le’Veon Bell is back one of the best running backs in the league (if not the best) will remain in place. And of course wide receiver Antonio Brown, the head of the class at his position, will still be around too.
Distractions and drama seem to follow the Steelers throughout this past season, starting with Bell’s prolonged holdout after having the franchise tag placed on him. Tomlin perpetuated the Patriots as the target going way back into the 2017 regular season, while setting other teams they had to beat aside before a possible AFC Championship Game rematch. On-field confusion and bad situational management from the sideline seemed to come to a head at crucial moments in important games, with Roethlisberger apparently given surprisingly little leeway to make decisions on his own in those situations.
The Steelers were my preseason pick to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LII. They’ll definitely be in the conversation again heading into next season, as a pick to go to and maybe win Super Bowl LIII, with Bell’s status as he gets set to hit free agency an offseason story to watch.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC, mostly in the strength of an MVP season from quarterback Carson Wentz, and the odds they’d reach the Super Bowl took a major hit with his torn left ACL in Week 14. They were unprecedented home underdogs in both of their playoff games as the top seed in the conference, but a narrow escape against the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round and a surprising blowout win over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game put them in Super Bowl LII.
Went is hoping to be ready for Week 1 next season, but he should be ready to go fairly early in the season anyway. Nick Foles may be kept around as a backup plan, rather than traded at the peak of his value to a quarterback-needy team this offseason, just in case Wentz is not quite ready for the start of the regular season.
With Wentz in place under center, and presumably healthy going forward, Philadelphia’s window to win a Super Bowl or two as currently constructed is really just starting to open. But next year there will be a good opportunity to reach a second straight Super Bowl, as one of the best and most balanced teams in the league.
1. New England Patriots
As long as Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are around, and in reasonable outward harmony despite reports of a strained relationship behind the scenes, the Patriots will be the top favorite to win the Super Bowl every year. There’s a possibility (however remote) that one or both of them walk after a win in Super Bowl LII, but there are no real, significant signs that will happen.
Brady continues to defy age as he has crossed into his forties. The decline has proven to come quickly for older quarterbacks (see Brett Favre and Peyton Manning recently), but after a down December Brady got mostly back into his typical form during the postseason heading into Super Bowl LII.
Belichick has proven to be a very shrewd de facto personnel man, and an unrivaled game planner. Losing both of his coordinators to head coaching jobs will be a challenge, as Matt Patricia heads to the Detroit Lions and Josh McDaniels goes to the Indianapolis Colts, but that’s something Belichick can overcome.
Next: Top 25 NFL free agents for 2018
The king is the king until they are dethroned. Regardless of Super Bowl LII’s result, which is days away as I write this, the Patriots have to be the No. 1 favorite to win Super Bowl LIII.