Spring Training is underway, but there are still free agents out there who are a great fit for each MLB team.
It took long enough, but after months stuck in neutral, the MLB free-agent market finally began to move. Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez have all found new homes over the past weeks, ending months of speculation about which teams would be able to afford the nine-figure deals necessary to land them. Even with things starting to move as players get antsy with Spring Training camps opening, there are still dozens of quality veterans left without a home for 2018.
All-Stars Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Greg Holland and Jonathan Lucroy all remain unsigned. Solid starters Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are also still on the market, along with plenty of hitters and pitchers who will end up spending the year on a big-league roster. Unlike years past, where any free agents left at the end of March were destined to fight for a roster spot on a minor-league deal, there are MLB contributors left unsigned.
Arrieta, Moustakas, Cobb, Lynn and Holland are the biggest names, and will all command multi-year deals. They may have to be prepared to wait another week or two, but lesser names will begin snapping up one-year deals or even minor-league deals because they need to get in camp and nail down a roster spot. With just over a month until Opening Day, each MLB team still has room for one more addition to the roster. Here is one free agent each team should be targeting to complete their lineup or rotation.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Greg Holland
The Diamondbacks survived a year of the Fernando Rodney experience but will need a new closer for 2018 and beyond. That role is currently in the hands of starter-turned-reliever Archie Bradley. It’s not that Bradley doesn’t look suited for the ninth-inning job — he’s just much more valuable as a multi-inning reliever who can come in at any point of the game a la Andrew Miller in Cleveland.
Bradley covered 73 innings in only 63 games out of the bullpen last year, striking out more than a batter an inning and allowing only four home runs. The Diamondbacks need to deploy their best reliever in any situation, rather than waiting for the ninth inning.
Arizona passed on keeping J.D. Martinez, but should still have the financial means to make a big move to close out the offseason. Picking up a closer to allow Bradley to stay in his fireman role is the smart move, and All-Star Greg Holland is still on the market, having proved himself fully healthy after Tommy John.
Atlanta Braves: Jonathan Lucroy
With an exciting lineup playing in an extremely hitter-friendly park, the Braves have become one of the most explosive teams in baseball. If top prospect Ronald Acuna can live up to the hype, the Braves will be even better at the plate this year. Atlanta’s starting pitchers are still at least a year away from being able to hold it together well enough at SunTrust Park to stay in contention, but it’s coming soon.
The Braves can do much better behind the plate than Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki. Flowers is a serviceable backup being given full-time at-bats on a rebuilding team. The 32-year-old is in the final year of a deal that pays him $3 million a year. That’s money that can easily be shifted into a backup role if the Braves can sign another catcher with a better bat.
Two-time All-Star Jonathan Lucroy is looking for a new home after a disappointing walk year. He started slowly for the Texas Rangers, but picked it up after being traded to the Colorado Rockies. Lucroy is still only 31 and is only a season removed from hitting a career-high 24 home runs in 2016.
Atlanta is a nice landing spot for Lucroy if he wants a pillow deal. He also comes with a reputation as a good defensive catcher and pitch framer. This would represent a low-risk deal for the Braves and a hitter-friendly ballpark for a veteran catcher with something to prove.
Baltimore Orioles: Brett Anderson
The Orioles say they’re not going to be able to afford Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. It’s probably not so much a matter of not being able to afford either pitcher, but a matter of owner Peter Angelos being deathly afraid of spending middling money on a starter after being burned by Ubaldo Jimenez. The Orioles control their own destiny when it comes to rebuilding an awful starting rotation, but the owner has to get on board for that to happen.
There aren’t many other free-agent starters worth taking a flier on, but it’s hard to imagine the Orioles heading into their final year with Manny Machado, a stated goal of remaining in contention and a starting rotation with two pitchers — Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman — who definitely have what it takes to pitch useful innings for a contender. Andrew Cashner might somehow continue to defy the odds and Chris Tillman might bounce back from a disastrous 2017 season, but it’s unlikely both occur.
Left-hander Brett Anderson was an absolute disaster for the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays last season, but the fact remains that he is still only 30 and went 10-9 with a 3.69 ERA in 2015 when he was finally able to stay healthy. Betting on Anderson to reverse course on his career after two bad seasons and a long history of health problems is certainly a longshot, but the Orioles should be scratching as many lottery tickets as possible if they are unwilling to open the checkbook for a starter with a better track record.
Baltimore should be trying to capitalize on the slow market with a strong offer for Cobb or Lynn, but they won’t do that until the owner wakes up to the realities of the league. Until that happens, the Orioles need to bring in as many veterans to camp and see what sticks.
Boston Red Sox: Trevor Rosenthal
The Red Sox had one big, obvious move to make this offseason, and they accomplished it by finally signing J.D. Martinez. Boston suffered through a huge power outage in the first year after David Ortiz’s retirement, and Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez suffered the most without Big Papi’s protection. The signing didn’t come together as quickly as most Red Sox fans would have liked, but in the end, Dave Dombrowski got his man for a very fair price.
Signing Martinez should all but wrap up what has been a very solid offseason for the Red Sox. With their own power bat, they managed to match the New York Yankees acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. Boston also kept valuable role players Mitch Moreland and Eduardo Nunez. Nunez will see plenty of playing time early in the year while Dustin Pedroia recovers from his knee surgery. Moreland may not see as much playing time as he initially imagined when re-signing with the Red Sox, but will still provide strong defense in the late innings of games in relief of Ramirez.
There isn’t much need for the Red Sox to bring in veterans on minor-league deals as the position players are pretty much set in stone. The starting rotation is also locked and loaded. Same goes for the bullpen. Perhaps the Red Sox could consider taking a flier on Trevor Rosenthal before he returns from Tommy John surgery.
Realistically, the Red Sox are unlikely to ink another free agent. Their payroll is already tops in the league and the roster looks strong from top to bottom. Rosenthal was one of the better young closers before his elbow injury, and the Red Sox could stash him away this year and hope he is ready for 2019 when Craig Kimbrel becomes a free agent.
Chicago Cubs: Greg Holland
As with the Red Sox, who we just touched on, the Cubs have very few weaknesses or remaining needs this offseason. Closer is the only spot where it still makes sense for Theo Epstein to add to his roster. Spending big for a closer has not been Epstein’s style, and he passed on re-signing Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis in back-to-back years.
Continuing to go year-by-year at closer could be in the plan for the Cubs, and Brandon Morrow is penciled in to do the job for now. The 33-year-old has finally found his place in the big leagues as a reliever after struggling as a starter for the better part of eight years. Morrow was a top-five pick out of college, so it’s clear the ability was always there. He just had to harness it.
In his first full season as a reliever, Morrow gave the Los Angeles Dodgers 43.0 innings with a 2.06 ERA. Before making his LA debut in at the end of May, however, Morrow had a 7.20 ERA in 20 games at Triple-A. He also imploded in the World Series, but that may have been a matter of workload. Either way, betting on Morrow to close is a huge gamble for the Cubs if they hope to contend for the World Series yet again.
Epstein was never going to pony up $17 million a year for Davis. That’s just not his style. As the list of potential landing spots shrinks and Opening Day approaches, Greg Holland may be forced to lower his asking price. Don’t rule out the Cubs from coming in with a late offer if the deal can be structured in a way that is friendly to the club.
Chicago White Sox: Mike Moustakas
The lagging market for All-Star third baseman Mike Moustakas has given the White Sox an opportunity to jump in and land a big name to help advance the rebuilding process. With one of the deepest farm systems in the league headlined by a crop of future aces in Michael Kopech and Lucas Giolito, the White Sox could pop much sooner than most baseball fans realize. The front office seems to understand this, as evidenced by the team’s interest in trading for Manny Machado earlier this offseason.
The White Sox did their rebuild the right way. They did not wait until after it was too late, or try to hold on too long to a mediocre ballclub. It was a painful breakup with Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana, but the pieces coming back in are among the biggest prospects in the game.
With plenty of money to spend, the White Sox can add a foundational piece to push the rebuild along. Moustakas is not a transformational player, but he is an established veteran who is beginning to come into his own as a power hitter.
The South Siders have good pieces sprinkled around the diamond, and can propel themselves further ahead of schedule with a solid veteran at a lower cost than predicted at the start of the offseason. Signing Moustakas would also not prevent the team from making an aggressive offer for Machado next winter, and might actually make them a more attractive destination.
Cincinnati Reds: Scott Feldman
Until the Reds can make some progress in developing starting pitchers, their rebuild is going nowhere fast. Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey are back and will attempt to stay healthy for a full year. DeSclafani showed tremendous promise in 2016 when he went 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 20 starts, but the young right-hander missed all of 2017 with a sprained UCL. Bailey’s six-year, $105-million extension could go down as one of the worst contracts in MLB history.
The Reds do have some interesting talent behind DeScalfani and Bailey, notably Luis Castillo and Brandon Finnegan (who was limited to only four starts last year). These pitchers need to be shielded and kept to an innings limit. Both are entering their age-25 season but don’t have the track record yet to be pushed for 200 innings. There’s also not much point in riding them this year when the Reds are still looking at 90 losses.
Scott Feldman spent 2017 with Cincinnati and strung together a solid run at the start of the year. His ERA was still under 4.00 by the end of June, but spiked in July and August before his season was done in by a knee injury. Feldman was finding more success with his curveball last year, holding opponents to a .130 batting average against the pitch.
Feldman can still be an effective pitcher when healthy, and the Reds have innings that need to be picked up at the back of their rotation. It makes sense to keep the 35-year-old right-hander around for at least one more season to continue bridging the gap to the young guns that will lead Cincinnati back to the playoffs in the future.
Cleveland Indians: Jonathan Lucroy
The Indians had a trade lined up for All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy two years ago, but he elected to block that trade and picked the Texas Rangers because he thought they gave him a better chance to go to the World Series. The two-time All-Star obviously made the wrong choice, because it was Cleveland, not Texas, in the 2016 World Series.
Lucroy’s time with the Rangers ended in nightmarish fashion. He fell apart completely in the first half of the 2017 season and was sporting a meek .242/.297/.338 line with four home runs and 27 RBI when he was traded to the Colorado Rockies. Lucroy managed to rebound with the Rockies, hitting .310/.429/.437 in 46 games after the trade.
Defense had also been one of Lucroy’s calling cards, but his pitch-framing numbers fell off last year as well. The advanced defensive metrics for catchers are still very volatile from season to season. Lucroy probably did not all of a sudden forget how to receive pitches, so much as see fewer extra called strikes because he was working with an erratic pitching staff in Texas.
Despite their commitments to catchers Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez, the Indians should still be willing to take another look at Lucroy. Cleveland catchers were 21st in the league last year with a .692 OPS. Gomes and Perez are not threats with the bat, and top prospect Francisco Mejia could benefit from one more year at Triple-A. A pillow deal for Lucroy gives the Indians a better hitter behind the plate and a bridge to Mejia next season.
Colorado Rockies: Mark Reynolds
In his two years with the Rockies, first baseman Mark Reynolds made himself into a fan favorite and thrived in the thin air of the Mile High City. The 34-year-old hit 30 home runs last year for the first time since 2011 while hitting .267/.352/.487. Reynolds obviously saw his power numbers boosted by playing half his games at Coors Field, but is still a very serviceable veteran hitter.
The Rockies are prepared to give their first base job to Ryan McMahon, who hit .374/.411/.612 at Triple-A last season. McMahon did struggle in a brief cameo at the end of the year, hitting only .158 in 17 games, but he is a former second-round pick and is a top-100 prospect. The Rockies should feel comfortable giving McMahon a chance to fail barring a colossal struggle in Spring Training.
Ian Desmond was signed last offseason to play first base, but that experiment appears over for the time being. Desmond is needed in left field. Reynolds is a better insurance policy at first base over the slump-prone Desmond, who posted an OPS+ of 73 last season.
Reynolds might not warrant a guaranteed MLB deal at this point of his career, but if he is willing to take a minor-league contract with an invite to camp, Colorado is an excellent place to continue carving out his niche as a platoon first baseman who can step in and provide 15-20 home runs in a part-time role.
Detroit Tigers: Clay Buchholz
The Tigers just scratched one high-upside lottery ticket in Francisco Liriano, so why not another? Clay Buchholz was utterly amazing at times during his 10-year run with the Red Sox, but also utterly frustrating at others. The right-hander never made more than 30 starts in a season, but did throw a no-hitter in his rookie year and went 12-1 with a 1.74 ERA in 16 starts in 203. Buchholz also led the major leagues in ERA+ in 2010 when he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA in 28 starts, still the closest he came to pitching a full season in an MLB rotation.
At 33, Buchholz is looking to return to the big leagues after making only two starts last year for Philadelphia. He was sent to the DL with a flexor tendon injury in his throwing arm. The right-hander gave up 16 hits and 10 runs in 7.1 very ugly innings. Buchholz is still an attractive name for a rebuilding team because there is almost no downside to giving him a chance in what will be an otherwise very forgettable rotation.
In his final season with the Red Sox, Buchholz pitched out of the bullpen for the first time in his career. He performed well in the role and had a 3.57 ERA in 22.2 innings. The stint in the bullpen also helped him sharpen his command and return for a successful run of five strong starts in September.
The only way for anyone to know if Buchholz has anything left in the tank after his injury is to get him into camp and let him work his way back to the big leagues. Detroit has the ability to give him plenty of time with no pressure, which makes this a good fit for both sides.
Houston Astros: Adam Lind
It’s damn near impossible to find a weakness on the current Astros roster, and there isn’t really much reason to mess with perfection. Houston does not need to make a splashy signing for a starter like Jake Arrieta. They have not five, but seven, capable starting pitchers. The bullpen will only get more dominant when Brad Peacock or Colin McHugh move into a swingman role.
If there is hole that still needs to be filled before the start of the season for the Astros, it’s the elder statesman role played by Carlos Beltran last season. Beltran rode off into retirement after winning his first World Series title. Matt Holliday has a similar profile, but doesn’t really fit for the Astros because he swings from the right side. Houston already has Evan Gattis to take their right-handed at-bats at DH.
A left-handed bat would not be the worst addition for the Astros as they head into the 2018 season. Veteran Adam Lind is no longer a full-time player, but should be able to give himself a few more years in the big leagues by sliding into a platoon DH role. He spent last season with the Washington Nationals, hitting .303/.62/.513 with 14 doubles, 14 home runs and 59 RBI in only 301 plate appearances.
Lind can provide instant offense off the bench without needing much playing time to stay sharp. He hit .356/.396/.644 as a pinch-hitter last year. Lind would have to take a slightly lesser role with the Astros, but it would give him a chance to play for a winner and take at-bats in the deepest lineup in the league.
Kansas City Royals: Melky Cabrera
Having lost Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain already this winter, and likely to lose Mike Moustakas, the Kansas City Royals are looking down the barrel of a multi-year rebuilding plan. That’s the smart move for a small-market team that had neglected its farm system while spending the last four seasons in win-now mode. Even with their need to begin starting anew, the Royals will probably not go with a bare-bones approach like the Tigers and White Sox.
Still a very serviceable hitter and slightly better than a defensive liability, Melky Cabrera spent the end of last season playing his second stint with the Royals. The 13-year veteran hit .285/.324/.423 on the year with 17 home runs and 85 RBI. Cabrera is still a very good contact hitter with occasional pop in his bat. He is the type of player the Royals could use in their lineup to help bring youngsters like Jorge Soler and Raul Mondesi Jr. along. Both have struggled to establish themselves in the big leagues, but have good potential.
The Royals won’t have to spend much to bring Cabrera back. The 33-year-old outfielder has already made over $70 million in his MLB career. What he needs now is a job with a team that can keep giving him playing time and regular trips to the plate. A rebuilding Kansas City squad is a good place for him to do just that. There’s also some value in this for the Royals if Cabrera can hit well enough on a cheap contract and becomes an attractive trade chip at the deadline.
Los Angeles Angels: Jake Arrieta
It has already been a very busy offseason for the Los Angeles Angels, as they have added Shohei Ohtani, Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart and found enough money to keep Justin Upton after he opted out of his contract. Even with all of those moves, it is worth wondering how much the Angels have really improved. Ohtani is still a wild card who will need time to adjust to the higher level of play in Major League Baseball, Kinsler is in decline, Cozart was a career .246/.289/.385 hitter before breaking out last season and will be learning a new position, and Upton is one of the streakiest hitters in the league who batted just .248/.323/.460 combined in 2015 and 2016.
Let’s acknowledge that the Angels are likely playing for second place at best in the AL West behind the Astros. They aren’t as good as the New York Yankees, and the Minnesota Twins have a much weaker schedule playing in the AL Central where three teams are rebuilding. It’s going to be a dogfight to grab a Wild Card in the AL this season.
The Angels will count on Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney finally finding a way to get through a season healthy. This pair has plenty of talent but has made a combined 18 starts in the past two seasons while dealing with serious arm injuries. Further down the rotation pecking order are Matt Shoemaker and Tyler Skaggs, two soft-tossers who have one season with more than 150 innings in parts of 10 combined seasons in the big leagues.
If the Angels are serious about making a big push leading into Mike Trout’s free agency, then there needs to be one more big move left this winter. Go out and grab Jake Arrieta and show the rest of the league you really mean business.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Jake Arrieta
The Dodgers were involved with Yu Darvish throughout his free agency before he ultimately signed with the Cubs. He reportedly received an offer from Los Angeles in the neighborhood of six years and $100 million. That wasn’t enough to keep Darvish, and it won’t be enough to land Jake Arrieta.
Los Angeles is clearly not completely content to stand pat with their current roster if they were willing to make a nine-figure offer to Darvish. The Dodgers have shied away from going that long with free-agent pitchers, but could consider making a shorter offer with a higher annual value to woo Arrieta.
Arrieta is not viewed as enthusiastically by the analytics community — of which the Dodgers are a leader — as Darvish. He does not project as well into his mid-thirties because of his command issues and reliance on fastball movement to generate weak contact. Strikeouts are not Arrieta’s game, even when he was running away with the NL Cy Young in 2015.
Instead of going out to six guaranteed years, the Dodgers should consider offering Arrieta five years with a higher AAV and a vesting option for a sixth year and plenty of incentives and bonuses for good performance. Last year was a dream season for the Dodgers, and the rest of the National League continues to improve. The Dodgers need a splashy move to complete their offseason, and Jake Arrieta is the best choice left on the market.
Miami Marlins: Ichiro Suzuki
We all know the Marlins are gearing up to be utterly dreadful in 2018 and beyond. Derek Jeter and his wealthy friends are gutting the team, and every valuable asset from the current roster will be gone before the team next contends. In the meantime, why not throw a little catnip to the 5-10,000 fans who figure to be in attendance on a nightly basis.
Ichiro Suzuki still wants to play baseball in the Major Leagues, and the Marlins should be conscripted by the league office to employ him until their total payroll rises above $75 million for two years in a row.
In his three years with the Marlins, Ichiro has hit .256/.315/.325 in 432 games and has been close to a net neutral as a defender. At the age of 44, that’s pretty darn good. The 17-year veteran still has some gas left in the tank. He also has another important trait — Ichiro might actually be willing to sign up to play for the Marlins.
Things are going to get much, much worse for the Marlins in the coming years. It does no harm to keep Ichiro around to serve as a positive role model to the prospects coming up through the system. He is also a fan favorite and an iconic figure in the history of the league. It’s good for baseball if Ichiro is given one last chance to go out on his own terms rather than being forced out because no one signed him. Do the right thing, Jeter.
Milwaukee Brewers: Alex Cobb
The Brewers were rumored to be in the running for right-hander Yu Darvish, but once the Cubs came in with a six-year offer, Milwaukee was blown out of the water. That’s fine — the Brewers know their place in the market and were not going to spend beyond their means on a risky deal for a pitcher who is coming off a down season.
Alex Cobb, like Darvish, has already had Tommy John surgery. Prior to going under the knife, Cobb was 35-23 with a 3.21 ERA in 81 starts for the Tampa Bay Rays. His return from surgery in 2016 was ugly, but the right-hander bounced back to post a solid 3.66 ERA in 29 starts last year while showing good command and a respectable home-run rate.
With another full offseason under his belt, Cobb should continue trending closer to his pre-surgery form. He has not shown a good feel for his split-finger since coming back, and that has affected his strikeout rate. That pitch makes Cobb a legitimate candidate to lead a rotation.
Milwaukee surprised the National League by staying in the Wild Card hunt until the final week of the year. The Brew Crew is not going away anytime soon, and could be ready to make a serious run at the NL Central crown with Christian Yelich. One more established starter joining Zach Davies, Chase Anderson, and hopefully Jimmy Nelson could put them over the top.
Minnesota Twins: Lance Lynn
For small-market teams like the Twins, hitting your window is absolutely imperative. The timing gods have absolutely handed Minnesota everything on a silver platter as they transition away from rebuilding and into contending. Three of the five teams in the AL Central are rebuilding, and not in the ways of old. The Tigers, White Sox and Royals all have the potential to be among the five-worst teams in baseball. That gives the Twins 57 games to feast on inferior competition.
Weak schedule aside, the Twins need to step up and keep their own foot on the gas. They’re still playing for a Wild Card behind the Indians at the top of the division. Whichever team finishes second in the AL East will also claim a playoff spot barring an epic collapse. That leaves the Twins fighting against some very good teams from the AL West to return to the playoffs for a second season in a row.
Jake Arrieta is still out there, but the Twins just don’t feel like they’re gearing up to spend over $100 million on a starting pitcher — and they might not need to. Jose Berrios flashed ace potential last season and looks ready to carry a staff with the always solid Ervin Santana. What the Twins need is another dependable arm at the right price to keep them in games.
With the exception of his missed season to Tommy John, Lance Lynn has been a very solid starter, making over 30 starts in each of his four full years in the St. Louis Cardinals rotation. The 30-year-old is 72-47 with a 3.38 ERA in six seasons in the big leagues. He’s a proven winner and a workhorse — exactly what the Twins need.
New York Mets: Neil Walker
Bless their hearts, the New York Mets say they’re all-in on fielding a winner to compete with their neighbors in the Bronx for the spotlight in the Big Apple. But while the Yankees are making headline-grabbing moves, the Mets are searching for retreads like Jay Bruce and Jose Reyes. The Wilpon family is not doing themselves any favors by passing on bigger names like Lorenzo Cain or Mike Moustakas to round out the lineup.
It has been a very Mets offseason so far, and any Amazins fans should not really get their hopes up that things will change. The owners continue to hide behind projected financial weakness while playing in the biggest television market in the country. Fans should be frustrated.
At the very least, the Mets should not enter 2018 with Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes projected to split time at second base. The team can do better than either by bringing back Neil Walker to slide back in at second base. That might not sit well with Cabrera, and Reyes has somehow been given fan-favorite status despite his personal issues, but Walker makes the Mets a better team.
Perhaps the Mets realize this isn’t the right time to be spending big on free agents. Their overall lineup is flawed and their farm system does not have the same depth as most of the other contenders in the National League. At the very least, the Mets can give themselves a puncher’s chance by signing Walker, an above-average offensive threat at second base.
New York Yankees: Mike Moustakas
The list of teams who could potentially sign Mike Moustakas is down to a few contenders, and the Royals are likely only going to make a token offer to save face with their fans. The Yankees and the White Sox stand out as the two teams that have a need at third base, but have different reasons for making a push for Moustakas.
For the Yankees, Moustakas could represent a stopgap measure at third base for a year before they can sign Manny Machado or give Gleyber Torres another year to develop in the minor leagues as he works his way back from elbow surgery. Scott Boras is not in the business of finding his clients one-year deals, but the market is so limited at this point that he may have no choice but to push for a pillow deal. Boras might have a hard time turning down an offer worth $20 million for 2018.
Money is still an issue for the Yankees, and Brian Cashman remains focused on getting below the luxury-tax threshold. To make a serious offer to Moustakas, the Yankees will likely need to find someone to take on at least half of Jacoby Ellsbury’s remaining salary.
Adding Mike Moustakas as the left-handed thunder to help complement Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez would make the Yankees the odds-on favorite to topple the Astros and win the American League. Only Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners know how serious their desire to curb spending really is.
Oakland Athletics: Trevor Cahill
Of all the small-market teams in baseball, the Athletics still do the best job at signing low-risk veterans and flipping them for prospects at the trade deadline. They have managed to turn small contracts for Rich Hill, Ryan Madson, Yonder Alonso and several others into prospect gold, the true currency for a rebuilding team.
It does make sense for teams like the A’s to take a flier here and there on cheap veterans that could become attractive to a contender in July. Short-term deals don’t break the bank, and function as a way to “buy” extra draft picks if everything works out.
Looking at the current Oakland roster, there are not many assets left that could fetch much return in a trade outside of second baseman Jed Lowrie. There is one free agent on the market with a connection to the A’s that might be worth a look. Trevor Cahill went 40-35 with a 3.91 ERA for Oakland from 2009 to 2011.
After leaving the A’s, Cahill bounced around the league as a starter and reliever, and did a good job for the Cubs in 2016. After leaving Chicago, the 29-year-old right-hander decided to try and re-establish himself as a starter and signed with the San Diego Padres. Cahill was 4-3 with a 3.69 ERA in 11 starts for the Padres before being traded to the Royals. He was dealing with shoulder issues most of the year and struggled in Kansas City. If the shoulder is healed, Cahill could function as a solid back-end starter for a team like the A’s.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jake Arrieta
The Phillies have been viewed as a potential surprise landing spot for Jake Arrieta since the start of the offseason. That his free agency has dragged into Spring Training should do nothing to quell the rumors that Philadelphia is strongly considering making a play on the Cy Young winner. The Phillies are nearing the practical end of their rebuilding phase, and could be spurred to action on the open market if the front office feels Arrieta can contribute to a winner for the majority of the life of his contract.
Much of the rebuilding focus for the Phillies has been on the starting rotation, but only Aaron Nola has made a definitive case for a long-term future in the big leagues as a starter. Vince Velasquez has dazzled at times, but his health was a problem in the minor leagues and is still a problem. The Phillies are not lacking for young talent at every other key spot on the diamond, but making the leap from 75 wins to 85 wins and more will be hard if the starting pitching cannot keep up.
Having stripped their payroll down to almost nothing, the Phillies have already showed this offseason that they have the financial means to make big offers to free agents. Three years and $60 million was an overpay for Carlos Santana, but Philadelphia clearly identified him as a key leader to help mold the likes of J.P. Crawford, Rhys Hoskins, Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams. Center fielder Odubel Herrera and third baseman Maikel Franco could also use some veteran leadership to help their maturation process.
Philadelphia will have the cash on hand to make big offers to Manny Machado or Bryce Harper next year and Mike Trout a few more years down the road. To have any shot at convincing those truly elite stars to come to Philly, there has to be a solid core already in place. Jake Arrieta is a step in that direction.
Pittsburgh Pirates: John Lackey
Even after trading away Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole, the Pirates remain committed to fielding a competitive ballclub in 2018. The trades of the team’s stars brought back mostly MLB-ready players instead of prospects in Low-A. For better or worse, the Pirates ownership group refuses to punt and start over.
It’s probably the wrong move for the Pirates to keep trying to win when the rest of their division is way ahead in terms of young talent. Alas, there’s no convincing the Pirates it’s time to strip it down and start over with prospects.
The starting rotation is what will ultimately make or break the Pirates this season. Pittsburgh’s lineup is still good enough to put up runs, especially with the addition of Corey Dickerson and Colin Moran. Jameson Taillon impressed as a rookie, but asking him to lead a staff at this age is too much too soon. Another veteran in addition to Ivan Nova is needed to help Ray Searage’s next crop of pitchers.
John Lackey is in his age-39 season, but has remade himself into a smarter pitcher. Since missing the 2012 season, he is 60-53 with a 3.57 ERA. The veteran right-hander struggled with the home run in 2017, but still showed enough to warrant at least one more season before calling it a career. His style fits with the Pirates pitching philosophy, and at this point, Lackey might be willing to pitch for a price Pittsburgh can afford.
San Diego Padres: Jeremy Hellickson
Spending $144 million on Eric Hosmer is all well and good, but the Padres are still several years away from fielding a contending ballclub. Putting together a lineup of eight hitters who can be reasonably successful in Petco Park is never going to be easy, but the Padres have not had much luck developing pitchers during their long stretches of losing.
The Padres could see top pitching prospect Cal Quantrill in the big leagues this year, but should not rush him if he is not absolutely ready. That has been part of the problem for San Diego as young arms have consistently climbed through their system only to disappoint or suffer from arm injuries.
Teams that get ahead of themselves push their young pitching prospects to do too much too soon and it hurts the entire rebuilding process. The best thing the Padres can do this season is bring in as many veteran arms to sop up innings as possible. Right-hander Jeremy Hellickson fits that bill perfectly.
The 30-year-old is coming off a disappointing 2017 season, but pitching for the Phillies and Orioles was less than an ideal fit for the fly-ball pitcher. In the right setting, Hellickson can be a league-average starter and good for close to 200 innings a season.
San Francisco Giants: Jeremy Hellickson
It has already been a crazy offseason for the Giants, as they have added Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen in an effort to reverse course quickly from last season’s epic collapse. Adding two All-Stars at key positions will make the offense better in San Francisco, but the Giants still have not addressed the weaknesses in their starting rotation. Pitching was just as much a part of the problem last year.
The Giants painted themselves into a corner by committing over $200 million to Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. That pair combined to go 17-23 with an ERA around 4.50. Cueto made only 25 starts and allowed 1.3 home runs per nine. Samardzija showed an ability to eat up innings, but still gives up too many hits and struggles to get the results that would be expected with his raw abilities.
San Francisco can survive league-average seasons from Cueto and Samardzija, but they cannot overcome a repeat of the numbers Matt Moore and Matt Cain gave from the back of the rotation last season. Moore and Cain went 9-26 with ERAs well over 5.00. Both are gone this year, with Chris Stratton and Tyler Beede slated to step in.
Reinforcements who could step right in to replace Stratton or Beede should they falter are the last thing the Giants need to wrap up their offseason. A cheap veteran who can be counted on to take the ball and keep games close is what the team can afford. Jeremy Hellickson is a good rebound candidate, and should benefit from pitching in spacious AT&T Park.
Seattle Mariners: Alex Cobb
Without having actually addressed their starting rotation issues, the Mariners enter the 2018 season with nearly $160 million committed to a roster that went 78-84 last season. The losing record was not on the offense, though. Seattle’s pitching staff struggled to stay healthy, and Ariel Miranda started more games than anyone else in the rotation. That’s not a recipe for success.
James Paxton was the breakout ace for the Mariners last year, but he has never made it through a full MLB season. The big lefty will look to build ion his career-high 24 starts last season, but the Mariners rotation is still a big question mark behind Paxton. Felix Hernandez is in rapid decline and might never make it through another season healthy. The addition of Mike Leake was a smart pickup for Jerry Dipoto last August. Leake has been good for 30 starts six years in a row.
The final two spots in the Mariners rotation are up for grabs, and the internal options do not inspire much confidence. Seattle won’t have the resources to pursue Jake Arrieta, even as he lingers on the free-agent market. A mid-tier arm like Alex Cobb should be in their price range.
Seattle has not made the playoffs since their magical 2001 season. The Mariners have nothing to show for all the money spent and wild trades made by Dipoto and his front office. If it takes spending another $15 million for a solid starter with high upside like Cobb, then so be it.
St. Louis Cardinals: Greg Holland
Like J.D. Martinez going to the Red Sox, Greg Holland to the Cardinals makes too much sense to not eventually occur. St. Louis desperately needs to sign a dominant closer, as it is unlikely that Luke Gregerson will be able to hold the job for an entire year. Take away the ugly month of April that the Cardinals bullpen labored through last season, and the team is likely in the playoffs instead of sitting at home.
With Seung-hwan Oh, Juan Nicasio and Trevor Rosenthal all heading out of town, the Cardinals have a very young bullpen. St. Louis is relying on inexperienced relievers without established track records to continue getting solid results. Gregerson is coming off a down year for the Astros, but his strikeout numbers still look strong. The .257 batting average against and 13 home runs allowed in only 61 innings, however, are a problem.
Wade Davis signed for three years and $51 million with Greg Holland’s old team, the Rockies. A deal that rich is not likely to come Holland’s way, and if he’s holding out for it, he will have to keep waiting. Three years, however, might not be out of line. In his first year back from Tommy John, the 32-year-old was able to show that he had not lost much. Holland made his third All-Star Game, led the NL in saves and struck out 11 per nine.
If not for a one-month slump in the second half last season, Holland would not still be left waiting on the free agent market. He was dominant nearly the entire year, a 10-game run from August 3 to August 26 where he allowed 14 runs in 8.1 innings not withstanding. The Cardinals are one of the only teams left that needs a closer, and they should be able to work a deal with Holland.
Tampa Bay Rays: Mark Reynolds
It’s hard to tell whether or not the Rays are heading for a full rebuilding effort or are just ahead of the curve when it comes to gauging the value of their own players. Waiving Corey Dickerson to add C.J. Cron was a move that came out of nowhere, and the returns for Steven Souza and Jake Odorizzi look modest. The fact remains that the Rays were in position to make the playoffs last year until their offense went belly-up in the second half.
With young pitching studs ready to make their full-season debuts and stick in the big leagues, the Rays still have that scrappy, underdog feel. Until Chris Archer is moved, the Rays are not fully punting on 2018.
The Rays aren’t going to be able to build a perfect lineup, and there’s no longer a way for small-market teams to gain an inside lane by being better at finding undervalued skills. Power is the only thing going for bargain prices these days, and the Rays employed one of the better one-trick hitters in the league last year in Logan Morrison.
With Morrison signing with the Twins, the Rays can mine another cheap source of power in veteran first baseman/DH Mark Reynolds, who should have interest in signing with an AL team where he can see more regular playing time. The Rays need power, and Reynolds has it in spades.
Texas Rangers: Greg Holland
As Sam Dyson flopped and floundered in his ninth-inning role last April, the Rangers dug themselves a hole that would ultimately prove impossible to dig out from. Texas made a few runs at a playoff spot throughout the year, but ultimately wound up 78-84 to miss the playoffs for the first time in three years.
The Rangers were obviously never going to run back their 36-11 record in one-run games from the 2016 season, but sliding all the way down to 13-24 killed their playoff chances. One-run games are fluky by nature, but Dyson was 1-6 with a 10.80 ERA before the Rangers finally sent him packing. It’s hard to come back from an implosion like that by a seemingly dependable closer.
Alex Claudio was given a chance to close after Dyson was released and fared reasonably well, but the 26-year-old left-hander does not have the profile of a typical closer. He struck out only 6.1 per nine in 2017 and does not have a much higher rate for his four-year career. Claudio has gotten good results so far, but contact-first closers can go up in flames at a moment’s notice.
Texas is still very much a contender in the crowded American League. Honestly, any team that is not tanking is a contender. Adding an All-Star closer like Greg Holland would go a long way to helping the Rangers vault back over the rest of the pack. This team still has a lineup that can make up any deficit late in games. Now, the front office needs to find a closer who won’t cough up the close games.
Toronto Blue Jays: Seth Smith
As they move on from Jose Bautista — seriously, at least try and give your franchise icon a minor-league deal — the Blue Jays are betting on Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk to stabilize their outfield corners. With Kevin Pillar in center field, the Jays could be looking at one of the weakest offensive outfields in baseball. Granderson hit only .161/.288/.366 down the stretch after being traded to the Dodgers last year and is nearly 37. Grichuk looks like the second coming of Colby Rasmus (who also played for the Jays) in that he is a talented outfielder who gets a pass because he came up through the Cardinals system and might put it together one of these years.
The Blue Jays need to bring in as many veteran left-handed outfielders to give themselves a chance of getting at least one right. Right fielder Seth Smith has had a very dependable 11-year career and has good on-base skills that the Blue Jays lack from many slots in their lineup. In a part-time role, the 35-year-old is still good for a .260/.340/.440 line with 10-15 home runs.
Toronto needs insurance on Granderson, who might not rebound from his slump to end last season. Remember, he did start the 2017 season by hitting .201/.273/.368 for the first 50 games. The Blue Jays can’t afford to give him that much time to figure it out if things start poorly in 2018. Granderson might have more upside than a player like Smith, but his downside is much worse.
Washington Nationals: Jake Arreita
The Nationals have been to the playoffs four times in the last six seasons and have two Cy Young contenders in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg and at least three MVP candidates in Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy. Trea Turner could also sneak into the MVP conversation if he stays healthy for a full year. Adam Eaton and Michael Taylor are both above-average center fielders.
There is high-level talent all over the Nationals roster. The only identifiable weakness for this team is at catcher, and there are no solid options available on the market. The Nats will have to hope Matt Wieters can bounce back after an ugly 2017 season.
While Washington has no need for Jake Arrieta on paper, the Nationals remain the number-one customer for Scott Boras clients. The Lerners have not been shy about opening their checkbooks to field the best team, especially when it comes to starting pitching. The Nationals have to be willing to do whatever it takes to get to the World Series before they lose Harper, and bumping Gio Gonzalez to the four-slot to slide Arrieta in behind Scherzer and Strasburg pushes the team closer to that goal.
It’s time for the Nationals to be even more all-in than they have been in recent years. The Lerners have made huge offers to free agents like Jason Heyward, Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes in recent years, but have come up short. This year, they can get their man in Jake Arrieta.