Should Miami Marlins focus on competing or rebuilding in 2018?

With new ownership coming in and most of last year’s key contributors gone, the Marlins goal should be to continue to build for the future.

This time last year, the Marlins had a star-studded outfield, who had a combined 50.8 WAR between them going into the season, a promising infield, and a solid pitching staff.  Now, they have some strong infield pieces and a solid pitching staff.

Derek Jeter’s ownership group bought the team with a mandate to cut the payroll.  This resulted in many trades: NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees, Christian Yelich to the Brewers, Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals, and Dee Gordon to the Mariners.  Last year, those players combined for 20.4 WAR.  20 wins, aka 12% of the season, are vital in a playoff push and very difficult to replace.  The Marlins are clearly building towards a cheap championship contender in the future, trying to mimic the rebuilds of the Cubs and Astros.

For this to happen, the Marlins need to make sure they properly develop the prospects they have.  This should be priority number 1, but the major league team isn’t completely inept.  They have a few strong pieces on offense and a good back-end of the bullpen that should allow them to keep leads when they get them.

Best Case Scenario

Prospect development.  Lewis Brinson, acquired from the Brewers,  will likely be the first major prospect they see in the majors, as Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com agree he is their top prospect.  From him, they should see strong contributions both offensively and defensively.  The Marlins just signed Cameron Maybin who can help mentor Brinson.  Maybin, now 30, was the third ranked prospect in baseball in 2008, so he knows what it means to come to the majors as a top prospect.  Any ups and downs that Brinson has, Maybin can help him mentally.

Sandy Alcantara, who was part of the Ozuna trade, finished last season in AA, so the goal for him should be to finish in AAA or as a part of the major league club when the rosters expand on September 1st.  Monte Harrison, also part of the Yelich trade, should expect to finish the season in AA or AAA after finishing last year in high A ball.

In the majors, J.T. Realmuto is the best player on the roster and it isn’t close.  Realmuto has been requesting a trade, seeing that he is the best player on a team that won’t be competitive this year.  He is the only remaining player from last year’s team who had a 3.0 WAR or better.  If the trio of him, Justin Bour, and Starlin Castro can combine for 65 home runs and a .295 batting average, the Marlins should be competitive in their games.

Ideally, when the offense can keep them in games, the back-end of the bullpen, Brad Ziegler and Kyle Barraclough, will be able to hold leads.  Ziegler has age concerns so Barraclough may be able to supplant him as the closer.

Given their cost-cutting goals, the Marlins should hope for big seasons from Starlin Castro and Martin Prado.  They both have 11+ million due in the 2019 season, so it would be nice to trade their expensive contracts for expiring contracts and more prospects.

Worst Case Scenario

The worst thing that could happen to the Marlins is the players a lack of development from prospects.  While the Marlins traded their stars for prospects this offseason, they still don’t have many top-tier prospects.  They only have 5 players in the Baseball Prospectus top 101 prospects, and 2 in MLB.com’s top 100.  They are counting on these players being great.  There aren’t other players up can coming if these don’t cut it, it is them or bust.  It is essential that they develop, otherwise this offseason’s moves will have been for nothing.

If this happens and the Marlins are unable to trade the big names still on their big league roster, they could be stuck in a state with no developing prospects and not winning.  At a minimum, they should be able to trade Realmuto to bring in some more prospects and bolster the number of top-tier prospects they have.  An inability to do this would mark this season as a failure.

Team MVP

J.T. Realmuto – C

There is nothing this guy cannot do.  He is far and away the fastest catcher in baseball, had a .783 OPS last season, and has the second fastest pop time (time from when catcher catches ball to hitting second baseman’s glove).  He gets on base, runs the bases, and throws out runners all at a high level.  For the Marlins to succeed in any form this year, they need a strong performance from him.

Prediction

We aren’t expecting the Marlins to be competitive this year.  The Marlins will likely finish at the bottom of the NL East.  If they perform at their peak, they can push to come in fourth, but the Marlins probably won’t be in the playoff hunt.  They should make sure they develop their prospects properly and are not rushing them through the system.