The New Orleans Pelicans have emerged as an intriguing challenge to the Golden State Warriors. Can they keep up their hot run and score another upset?
The New Orleans Pelicans entered their series against the Portland Trail Blazers with expectations of putting up a fight and maybe advancing to the second round. Either way, both teams would be sacrificial lambs to the juggernaut that is the Golden State Warriors. Their plucky little story would come to an end.
Then Anthony Davis went nuts — 33.0 points, 11.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game — Jrue Holiday shut down Damian Lillard and the Pelicans swept the third-seeded Trail Blazers right into the summer.
Narratives and storylines shift quickly in the Playoffs. And the Pelicans now look like world beaters capable of doing the unthinkable.
The Warriors have not helped sway that notion back to the original and inevitable Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets march with their five-game series win over the San Antonio Spurs. Golden State has looked a bit human at times without Stephen Curry. The team is not firing on all cylinders and Davis is increasingly looking like the best player in the series. Or at least enough to contest Kevin Durant for that title.
The series between the Pelicans and Warriors will bring up a ton of interesting matchups. How does New Orleans handle the size from Golden State on the wing with their smallish backcourt? How does Golden State handle New Orleans’ size?
This is a series that will be much more than a rehash of the 2015 first-round series. That was a surprisingly close series for a four-game sweep — Golden State won the games by an average of 8.0 points per game and included that classic overtime game in Game 3.
The Warriors and Pelicans are much different teams these days. Both have grown in different ways. And their collision in the second round is going to bring up a lot of interesting matchups and storylines.
That Rockets-Warriors collision does not seem set.
5. Dealing with Anthony Davis
James Harden likely locked up the MVP award a long time ago with just a consistent level of play over the course of the entire season. But Anthony Davis put in his time and did his work to get into the MVP conversation. If James Harden is Tier One, then Anthony Davis and LeBron James are Tier Two.
Davis finished the season averaging 29.8 points, 11.8 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game after the All-Star Break. He has upped his game in the playoffs, averaging 33.0 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game and 2.8 blocks per game. That was a big reason the Pelicans earned that sweep over the Blazers.
Davis is a matchup nightmare even for a team that has good personnel to cover bigs in the league. The Warriors are famous for going small and switching a lot. That might end up being the strategy.
Golden State’s biggest weakness is at center. The team is starting JaVale McGee at that spot with Kevon Looney playing the majority of backup minutes. Both those players are long and have a decent amount of athleticism, but no one is willing to say they can hang with Davis. Then again, who can, with the way Davis is playing right now?
Golden State can gang rebound. In the team’s series win against San Antonio, Golden State accumulated the top rebound rate in the playoffs. The Warriors are third with an 81.5 percent defensive rebound rate. Some of that might be the Spurs’ strategy. They are not an offensive rebound heavy team, preferring to get back and they do not have a voracious rebounder like Davis to attack the glass.
The Pelicans could have an advantage on the glass. And they have the ability to attack the Warriors’ weaknesses. How Golden State deals with Davis — whether it is doubling him, using a craftier but slower defender in Zaza Pachulia or even going small with Draymond Green — will be a key part to this series.
4. Stephen Curry’s health
The next big storyline to watch throughout this series is when Stephen Curry might return.
Curry has been out with a MCL sprain from March 23 and there is no timetable for his return, although coach Steve Kerr says he is still on track for a timely return.
While Golden State still has plenty of firepower, they have looked relatively human with Curry on the sideline. Golden State’s series win over San Antonio felt anything but easy, even with the series going only five games.
Then again, Golden State still has the second-highest offensive rating in the playoffs at 111.2 points per 100 possessions and that was against a good San Antonio defense. The Pelicans are first, by the way.
The Warriors are still trying to find answers to replace Curry and his production though, especially with how he warps the defense. The Spurs did not have a point guard who could really push the Warriors’ collection of point guards filling in. The Pelicans are playing at a much higher level and have a dangerous group of guards.
To beat Houston (assumedly) in the Western Conference Finals, Golden State will need Curry. And integrating him into a lineup will be a process. That is not a process most teams want to go through during the course of a Playoff series. Not when there are such pressure-packed games.
Curry may still be a ways from playing. But this is the moment Golden State needs to get him back into the flow before that showdown. And that is all assuming the Warriors can get past the Pelicans.
3. Jrue Holiday’s defense
The job Jrue Holiday and the New Orleans Pelicans did on Damian Lillard was nothing short of incredible. Lillard averaged 18.5 points per game and shot 35.2 percent from the floor, the worst marks of his playoff career. Holiday got and deserved a lot of the credit for that defensive work.
He has put in some solid defensive work for a while. This is just the first time he has looked like the All-Star version of himself from his time with the Philadelphia 76ers. Injuries had sapped him of a lot of that ability to play this way consistently. Now that he is back to that level, it sure feels like the Pelicans are a whole different team.
Against the Warriors, having a strong defender who can put pressure on the guards is key to slowing the team down. Having someone who can chase Klay Thompson around will absolutely slow the team down.
Golden State is a different offensive team than Portland. Portland has plenty of movement within its offense but still relies heavily on one-on-one play. Holiday being able to lock down Lillard completely crippled the Blazers’ attack.
The Warriors will introduce a lot more movement. To beat Golden State takes more of a team effort and team concept defensively, that will neutralize what Holiday can do at the point of attack defensively.
Put him on Shaun Livingston or Quinn Cook, and that player is not exactly going to attack much off the dribble. Put him on Klay Thompson and he will be chasing around screens for most of the game, and not playing one-on-one defense. And putting him on Kevin Durant seems like a massive mismatch. Holiday just does not have the size to defend him.
That will make it harder to find a place to employ Holiday’s defense. Likely, he plays Thompson and does his best to slow down the motion from Thompson but it will be tough for New Orleans to get the same strong defensive presence from Holiday.
2. Size on the wings
The New Orleans Pelicans have a little bit of a problem they have been able to cover and play around. Their starting lineup is small, at least on the perimeter.
Jrue Holiday, E’Twaun Moore and Rajon Rondo were able to do a lot of damage against the Blazers in the first round. But that is an awfully small backcourt especially going up against a much bigger team in the Warriors.
Holiday and Moore are listed at 6-foot-4 and Rondo is listed at 6-foot-1. One of those players will have to defend Kevin Durant or switch onto Draymond Green. And Klay Thompson is a big 6-foot-7.
This is a huge mismatch for the Pelicans. New Orleans was great defensively against Portland, but this is a much bigger challenge.
The Pelicans will have to adjust some things to their rotation. But playing Solomon Hill, DeAndre Liggins or Ian Clark more is not going to solve many of the problems. Those players just are not as effective offensively as the current Pelicans group. That disruption to the rotation could have some major after-effects for the team.
New Orleans has to find a way to overcome this major disadvantage on the wings with its roster. This is one of the major drawbacks. And Davis is not likely going to be able to clean everything up by himself. Not with the way the Warriors pass the ball.
Golden State clearly has an advantage here and the team is likely to exploit it.
1. 3-point Shooting
It should go without saying that 3-point shooting will play a key role in the series. It is about the only way New Orleans could keep up with Golden State’s offense in a lot of ways. And the Pelicans will have to work to create good shooting opportunities to counteract the Warriors’ length.
In the first round of the playoffs, New Orleans shot 40.0 percent from beyond the arc. In the Pelicans’ April 7 win over the Warriors, they shot 40.7 percent on 3-pointers. That will be an absolute key to New Orleans’ success in this series.
The Pelicans shot 36.2 percent from beyond the arc for the season. That means New Orleans is shooting well above the tam’s 3-point average in the playoffs. And did so in its lone win against Golden State this year.
Defensively, New Orleans was great against Portland’s 3-point shooting. It was not just Damian Lillard shooting a below-average mark from beyond the arc. Portland as a team shot 33.3 percent from beyond the arc.
During the season, New Orleans’ opponents hit 35.5 percent from beyond the arc, the eighth best 3-point field goal percentage defense in the league. The 3-pointer remains the great equalizer in the league. It is still a bit random whether a team can defend the 3-point line effectively. Golden State can just hit threes, even contested 3s and bury opponents quickly.
Next: The art of collaboration
New Orleans will have to rely heavily on its 3-point shooting and defense to stay in this series. It is an important aspect to this series and every series against the Warriors.