What does the rest of the season hold for the Yankees?
The New York Yankees entered the 2018 season with massive expectations. The team started a little slowly under first-year manager Aaron Boone, but lately the club has been white-hot. After winning 14 of 15 games it’s time to start thinking about what the rest of the season might hold for the AL East club.
That’s why we’re going to walk you through five bold predictions about what might happen the rest of the year for the Yankees. We start with a negative prediction about what might happen to the Yankees most productive starter of the season to date.
5. CC Sabathia’s ERA will finish over 4.50
No rational Yankees fan would have predicted CC Sabathia to start this season nearly this well. He’s dominated competition over his first six starts of the year. Currently, he’s sporting an ERA of just 1.39 to go along with his 2-0 record.
The hefty lefty deserves credit for completely remaking himself as a pitcher. He’s pivoted from a young power pitcher to a crafty veteran. Instead of blowing batters away with a fastball in the upper-90s, now he works the edges with his crafty off speed offerings. It’s a phenomenal transformation.
Unfortunately, the chances of it holding up all season long are pretty slim. His off speed stuff has been good this season, but it’s not like he features a devastating array of soft stuff. Expect batters to catch up with him as they see more of how he’s trying to work the margins.
In the end, it’s almost a certainty that Sabathia’s ERA is going to balloon as the season progresses. Counting on it finishing the year somewhere around 4.50. That won’t be good enough to really change the trajectory of his career, but it will exceed the low expectations many Yankee fans had for Sabathia coming into the season.
4. Brett Gardner will get benched
During his Yankees tenure, Brett Gardner has been a model of consistency. Unfortunately, his play this season has just been consistently bad. That’s why we’re expecting him to get benched before the end of the 2018 season.
Through his first 30 games of the year, he’s only managing to hit a paltry .202 at the plate. It’s not as if he’s supplementing his poor average with power either. Gardner only has one home run and nine RBI’s on the season.
His defense is also starting to slip. Boone made the right decision to shift him from center to left, but that’s only going to make acquiring a potential replacement much easier. Unless he turns around his performance soon, he will be a player that Brian Cashman looks to replace at the trade deadline. It’s even possible that Cashman could look to deal a surplus infielder for a left field upgrade earlier in the season.
The Yankees won’t deal Gardner away because of his positional versatility and leadership in the clubhouse. That doesn’t mean he’s going to remain a regular starter though. Expect Gardner to be riding the pine when the calendar turns to September.
3. Sonny Gray will start a playoff game
Slowly but surely, Sonny Gray has recovered from his train wreck start to the season. His stats on the season still aren’t good, but he’s definitely trending in the right direction.
An ERA of 6.00 isn’t going to get Gray on the All-Star team, but it’s a lot better than the 8.27 if he was sporting in late April. More important than just his numbers, Gray is starting to look more like the above average pitcher the Yankees thought they’d acquired in the deal with Oakland.
In his most recent start Gray showed real command with both his fastball and off-speed pitches. He even managed to work his way out of a bases-loaded jam against the Indians. None of that proves Gray is going to become the ace of the Yankee staff, but it does show he’s capable of being a valuable member of the rotation.
That development, coupled with the likelihood that the Yankees will reach the postseason makes Gray a good bet to start one of the games. Don’t expect to see him on the hill in Game 1 of any series, but Boone will give him the ball in at least one crucial postseason game.
2. Gleyber Torres will be an All-Star
It’s rare for a rookie to make an All-Star team, but Gleyber Torres has the talent to become an exception to the rule. He’s burst onto the scene since his call-up and there’s no reason to believe his performance will slow down.
Sure, he could suffer from an occasional rookie slump, but he’s just too talented to keep down for too long. He’s got a lightning quick bat that gives him the ability to spray pitches all over the diamond. It won’t surprise anyone to see Torres hit over .300 with reasonable power numbers.
At the moment, his batting average is actually north of .300. He’s hit .333 in his 48 big league at bats. That isn’t a massive sample size, but it shows what the young second baseman can do. If he keeps that sort of hitting up he’s going to make it very difficult to leave him off the roster for the Midsummer classic.
Torres is also an asset to the Yankees with his glove. He’s already provided his club .4 defensive WAR in his 13 games. That gives you an immediate sense of just how much his range helps out his pitching staff. The fans might not notice that enough to vote Torres into the All Star game, but whoever manages the team will definitely take his defense into consideration.
1. The Yankees will win the AL East
This may not qualify as everyone’s idea of a bold prediction since the Yankees sit only .5 game back of the Red Sox currently. However, not many preseason publications picked New York to beat out Boston for the division.
Plenty of people expected the Yankees to earn a Wild Card berth, but toppling their arch rivals is an entirely different matter. Fortunately, the Yankees possess the type of pitching depth to stay in the AL East race for the long haul.
In particular, the Yankees should benefit from continued improvement from their pitching staff. Sabathia and Luis Severino are outperforming their preseason expectations at the moment, but the other three starters can reasonably be expected to improve.
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Perhaps more importantly, the Yankees bullpen will continue to serve as a difference maker for Boone at every opportunity. If his starters can get the team consistently into the sixth or seventh inning, his bullpen can manage the rest. Aroldis Chapman and company will ultimately get the Yankees past the Red Sox to win yet another AL East crown.