We’re a little past a quarter of the way into the 2018 Major League Baseball season and the MVP races are already starting to heat up.
It’s been an interesting season so far around the majors. The American League has some pretty clear cut choices, especially at the top. There’s quite a few players on the cusp of being featured intros article and maybe they’ll break through next month. In the National League, players like Lorenzo Cain for the Brewers and Ozzie Albies deserve some attention. It’s a shame that the San Francisco Giants don’t get a lot of publicity on the East Coast because first baseman Brandon Belt is having an excellent season to this point. These players are knocking on the door but are still on the outside looking in.
One of the most intriguing cases is on the Los Angeles Angels. We’ll get to the obvious choice from that squad in a bit, but how does one go about measuring the value for Shohei Ohtani? Offensively, he has a higher wOBA than players like Tommy Pham, Francisco Lindor, Charlie Blackmon and Bryce Harper. His pitching can’t be ignored, obviously.
His ERA would be better than pitchers such as Dallas Keuchel, Zack Grienke, Carlos Carassco and Stephen Strasburg. He has a combined WAR of 1.8, which is just outside the top 20 for offensive players and in the top 12 for just pitchers. He’s 23 and learning how to play in America. What he’s doing is nothing short of astonishing, but he’s not going to sniff the MVP this season. Ohtani is the most unique player in the majors and must see every time he plays. He’s also not on the short list of MVP candidates as of now. So who is? Let’s find out.
5. Nolan Arenado, Third Baseman for the Colorado Rockies
47 GP, .320/.416/.558, 9 HR, 27 RBI, .411 wOBA, 2.0 WAR
Arenado has been major catalyst so far for the Rockies being the N.L. West leaders as of May 28. His power isn’t quite as good as it normally has been but he’s hitting for what would be a career high in batting average, which is not the worst tradeoff. His WAR has him tied for 16th in baseball and the Rockies wouldn’t be where they are without him. He’s one of the best defensive third baseman in the majors and may regard him as the best.
The Rockies may have a small advantage when it comes to compiling offensive numbers since they play at Coors Field, the best hitters park in baseball. Arenado isn’t immune to that effect as his numbers are significantly better at home. However, the Rockies haven’t played at home e a lot yet and when they did, temperatures were below freezing often. The Colorado superstar hasn’t even gotten hot yet. If Colorado can hang onto the division all the way until the end of the season and Arenado continues on this offensive pace, it will be hard to look over him for the National League MVP.
4. Aaron Judge, Outfielder for the New York Yankees
49 GP, .290/.425/.579, 14 HR, 39 RBI, .426 wOBA, 2.6 WAR
At the rate we’re going this season, Judge is going to have to settle for another near miss as far as being the MVP. Some people might scoff at Judge being a candidate because of the lineup he’s playing in but that wouldn’t be fair at all. The only other “regular” who has a batting average over .246 around Judge right now is youngster Gleyber Torres.
Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton are supposed to be huge bats in the middle of the lineup with Judge. That hasn’t exactly been the case so far. Both those players are in double digits in home runs but Sanchez is hitting .220 with an OPS of .840. Stanton is hitting for a slightly higher average of .246 but his OPS is just .800. While they have certainly helped the Yankees, neither player has lived up to lofty expectations to this point. The same can’t be said for Judge.
He finished second last year to Jose Altuve and is basically repeating what he did in 2017. His batting average has come up a little bit without really sacrificing any of his power numbers. His home run pace is down a little bit but a drop from 52 to 46-48 this season shouldn’t be viewed as anything poor. New York has one of the best records in baseball and Judge as been front and center since Opening Day. If the other two players in the American League come back to Earth at all, we could All Rise for Judge being the MVP.
3. Freddie Freeman, First Baseman for the Atlanta Braves
51 GP, .325/.424/.541, 9 HR, 38 RBI, .409 wOBA, 2.3 WAR
If you said Freddie Freeman was the most under-appreciated superstar in baseball, it’s hard to craft an argument against that. The Braves are fighting for a division title earlier than anyone thought they could. The young guns of Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna have gotten a lot of the publicity, and they deserve a lot of praise for what they’re accomplishing at their ages. Still, the Braves would be far worse without Freeman sitting in the third spot in the lineup on a nightly basis.
Not only does Freeman play a solid first base, but he’s a wonderful offensive player who’s on pace to set career high’s in a ton of categories. Like Judge, his home runs are down compared to last year. With baseball being the way it is today, it’s almost more impressive that Freeman has this high of an average and on-base percentage while still being a power hitter. Freeman is even chipping in some stolen bases as he has five already.
There’s very few players like him in all of baseball. Freeman is also serving as a de facto clubhouse leader to this group of young players still learning how to play in the majors. That’s something that is obviously difficult to quantify but if the Braves keep near the top of the division, Freeman could very well win the MVP. Atlanta possibly contending for a playoff spot far earlier than most people thought while help Freeman immensely as the season rolls on.
2. Mike Trout, Outfielder for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
53 GP, .306/.453/.672, 18 HR, 34 RBI, .465 wOBA, 4.4 WAR
So let’s settle one thing before we go any further – Mike Trout is still the best player in baseball. There shouldn’t be a ton of discussion given his track record, what he’s continuing to do this season, and the fact he’s smack in the middle of his prime. There is a player in the American League who should be the favorite who is having the better season to this point but he hasn’t taken the best player crown from Trout and has a long way to go to pull it off.
Trout plays an excellent center field for the Angels and the lineup he plays in is certainly worse than the MVP favorite. Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are about the only other help that Trout is getting right now. Seeing as how Trout doesn’t have a lot of threats behind him, that could help explain his 20.5 walk percentage. Pitchers don’t want to let Trout beat them and that walk rate isn’t inflated by intentional walks either. Trout has only seen four of them all season.
Trout is stealing bases also and he’s tied for fifth in baseball with 12. There isn’t a single aspect of the game that Trout doesn’t excel at and the Angels would be fantastically worse off if Trout wasn’t around. One of the best arguments for him as MVP other than just his stats is the fact the team around him has been playing subpar baseball. He could still easily catch number one and it should be appreciated just how good Trout is at his craft.
1. Mookie Betts, Outfielder for the Boston Red Sox
48 GP, .359/.437/.750, 17 HR, 37 RBI, .489 wOBA, 4.1 WAR
The young stud for the Red Sox may not be the best player in baseball but he’s having the superior season in almost every respect…for now. He has a way higher average that Trout, the slugging is higher, the on base is just a little behind, he has more RBI and a higher wOBA than Trout. The on base being lower isn’t a total surprise. Opposing pitchers can’t be as picky with pick selection with Betts. He’s a threat to steal a base(13 on the season) and the Boston lineup behind him includes Andrew Benintendi and J.D. Martinez, among others. Martinez might not be in the running for MVP but he does have 18 home runs. You don’t want to put Betts on for free when Martinez is up.
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The one small knock against Betts is that Trout does play center field, which is the more glamorous and demanding position. That shouldn’t be enough to swing the votes for Trout as things stand. The gap is just a bit too wide between Betts and Trout for now. The other factor is Betts has played six fewer games than Trout as of this writing. That’s not a big chunk of the season but it does make a significant difference in the counting stats. It also doesn’t hurt that Betts plays for the Boston Red Sox, one of the blue blood franchises in the majors. Betts is probably due a little cold streak at some point during the year. If/when that happens, the battle for the American League MVP is going to be quite the slugfest throughout the summer.