NHL Draft 2018: Projecting just how far Ryan Merkley will fall
There’s no denying Ryan Merkley’s skill and offensive prowess. His ability to convince teams he can improve his attitude and play in his own end will determine where he is selected in the NHL Draft.
As a 16-year-old rookie in the OHL, Ryan Merkley put up a whopping 55 points in just 62 games from the blue line. He followed that up this year with 67 in 63 games. Both years, however, he finished as a minus-41 and minus-29, respectively, and took on his fair share of penalty minutes. Clearly, his defense and temperament need improvement.
His attitude overshadowed his second full season with the Guelph Storm. The organization went as far as benching Merkley in the midst of a playoff run. Publicly arguing with coaches and completely abandoning his goalie to deliver a two-handed slash were just a few of the red flags that were raised this year.
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Despite the concerns, this is a results-oriented league. While the ISS has him ranked as the 47th best prospect, his talent will be too much to pass on in the first round. His ability to move the play up the ice and gain entry with control is second-to-none. Speed and accuracy permeate his puck-moving abilities and his elusiveness keeps defenders completely off-balance.
At the NHL combine, he met with 25 teams and made clear to the media that he realised his shortcomings.
"“I have to work on my mental game for sure. My agent, J.P. Barry, is going to help me find people to talk to. I have to mature and deal with my frustration level, as well as my defensive game. I have to commit to the ‘D’ zone and clean that up.” – Ryan Merkley"
The Verdict
So where does he go in the draft? The San Jose Sharks have the 21st selection in the first round, and Merkley would be a great fit. He has proven capable of excelling against older competition, as highlighted by his Rookie of the Year award after breaking in to the OHL as a 16 year old. The Sharks are in win-now mode and could better utilize a prospect who could make quick work of the minors.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic is also one of the better defensive specialists in hockey and is signed through 2024-2025. His style of play would allow the Sharks to more responsibly unleash Merkley’s offensive capabilities 5 on 5, cushioning his defensive shortcomings until he can run the powerplay on a man advantage.
The Sharks and Doug Wilson are no strangers to taking on players who have been flagged for attitude problems. Evander Kane was acquired at this year’s trade deadline and flourished in San Jose. After signing a max seven year extension this spring, he went on to say:
"“The one thing about this team, this group and this organization is they allow you to be yourself…They embrace you for who you are and it’s a very unselfish group that makes it super-easy to come into and mesh well with. –Evander Kane"
Wilson also sent three members of the Sharks’ young core to Boston for Joe Thornton, coming off an arrest in which he assaulted a police officer. Needless to say, Thornton has flourished in San Jose.
With just one pick in the first three rounds of this year’s draft, I see San Jose swinging for the fences with Ryan Merkley at 21. If they end up passing, don’t expect him to fall in to the second round. There’s too much raw talent for a confident franchise to not take him at his word when he says he wants to improve in all the areas that the projections are holding him back for.