Now that the NBA Draft is over, it’s time for executives to turn their attention to free agency. Here are free agents that are massively overrated.
There isn’t a ton of money available in the free agency market this year, but that won’t stop teams from overpaying certain stars. General managers who do have cap space available can practically feel it burning a hole in their pockets. It’s time to dive in and identify the players on the market who are significantly overrated.
Most of the players on this list will fall into one of two categories. First, they may be aging stars who will be demanding big contracts. This sort of player will provide solid value in the first year or two of their deals, but their contracts’ may become albatrosses later.
The second category is full of young players who ooze potential, but haven’t lived up to their hype due to injury. GMs looking to add stars to their teams will often convince themselves their medical staffs can change a player’s fate. It’s an understandable temptation, but it’s still not a wise choice.
We start this list by examining a point guard who’s going to be looking for big money, but shouldn’t get it.
5. Rajon Rondo
Any GM that pays Rondo big money at 32 years of age deserves to be fired. He had a decent season for the Pelicans last year, but his effectiveness was drastically overrated.
Rondo is the antithesis of what teams need in a modern point guard. His propensity to pound the ball into the floor can bring his offense to a grinding halt. The fact that he’s a complete non-shooter also ruins his team’s spacing. Don’t let his assist totals fool you, he’s not the sort of guard you want to build your team around.
Despite all that, his name recognition is going to get him a decent deal this season. It’s pretty likely he’s going to return to another tour of duty in New Orleans. He’ll be looking for a deal north of $10 million per season but he’s not worth half that number.
4. Marcus Smart
The Celtics wing is one of the most difficult players to value on the market this year. The fact that he’s only available via restricted free agency is only going to complicate things.
On the plus side, Smart is an intensely competitive player who can be a lockdown defender. Smart plays with such force and physicality on the defensive end that he can credibly guard everyone from point guards to power forwards. In a tense playoff series he can make little plays to help his team come out on top.
The problem is that not every team is the Boston Celtics. Smart’s lack of shooting ability makes him a real liability on the offensive end. He’s capable of making an occasional 3-pointer, but he shot 30.1 percent from behind the arc last year. His effective field goal percentage of 44 percent is well below the league average for a guard.
In the end, Smart is going to want to be paid like the playoff star he has occasionally been. Unless you’re the sort of team that’s a defensive stopper away from winning an NBA title that’s going to turn out to be a massive overpay. Look for Smart to get a significant offer sheet this summer. It’s very likely he’ll end up with the contract of an above-average NBA starter when in reality he’s just a super sub for most teams.
3. Jabari Parker
Fans of the Milwaukee Bucks forward will tell you that he’s a star when he’s healthy. That isn’t completely true. Parker is a terrific offensive player when his knee is 100 percent, but his lack of defensive acumen is always going to be a problem.
The market for Parker will be strong despite his defensive deficiencies. There aren’t many 6-foot-8 forwards who can take the ball to the basket and shoot it proficiently from 3. He shot over 38 percent from behind the line last season. Again, there’s no question he can score when he’s healthy.
What he can’t, or perhaps won’t do, is defend. When you watch him on tape you see a player who doesn’t look very interested on that end of the floor. Parker rarely gets down in a defensive stance and shows little instincts for stopping opponents. It’s hard to imagine him ever being anything other than a big negative on defense.
You also can’t eliminate the injury concern. Parker has suffered two torn ACLs in the last four years. It’s clearly an injury that could befall him again. It also means he isn’t quite the same athlete he was earlier in his career.
Despite the defensive and injury concerns, Parker is going to get a big offer sheet in restricted free agency. Paying more than $12 million per season with a player with such bust potential is going to be a huge gamble for some team. It’s the kind of contract that might look good for a little while, but will almost certainly turn out to be a negative value overall.
2. Zach LaVine
When LaVine has it going on the offensive end of the floor it’s easy to fall in love. He’s got a silky smooth jumper from well beyond the three-point line and his dunking ability can be downright mesmerizing.
Unfortunately, those moments are few and far between for the Bulls guard. Chicago acquired him to be a foundational piece of their future, but LaVine hasn’t lived up to the hype. Some of his issues are a result of his own torn ACL, but even before his injury he was never a very efficient player.
The 6-foot-5 guard hasn’t posted a PER above 14.6 in any of his four seasons as a pro. That’s a real issue for a player who is supposed to be a first or second option on offense. LaVine can put up good counting stats, but he’s not an efficient offensive player. He’s a good shooter, but not a great one. There’s also the small detail that he doesn’t create baskets for his teammates.
Initial reports claimed the Bulls were determined to match any offer LaVine might receive. Fortunately for fans of the Windy City franchise, the team has worked to back off that sentiment in recent days. Paying LaVine anything over average starter money is going to come back to really haunt some GM. He may be a fan favorite, but he’s got a long way to go before he becomes a player that’s actually going to contribute to winning basketball.
1. Chris Paul
Paul was excellent in his first season with the Rockets. He only played in 58 regular season games due to injury, but he helped Houston earn the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference Playoffs. They ultimately fell to the Golden State Warriors, in large part due to another injury to Paul.
You should be sensing a theme here. Injuries are a big concern for Paul already. He’s not going to become more durable as he gets older. Any team that hands him a massive contract this summer is going to get solid value in the first couple years of the deal, but things could get ugly on the back-end.
Remember, Paul will be 33-years-old next season. He’s also going to push for a maximum contract offer. That means the franchise that wins the race for his services is going to pay him a boatload of cash as he approaches 40. The list of small point guards playing well that long is pretty short. Most people acknowledge it starts and ends with John Stockton.
The former Jazz star was also much more durable than Paul has proven to be in his career. It’s not impossible Paul could string a few healthy seasons together, but it isn’t all that likely.
Next: Rockets may not be able to afford Chris Paul next season
Ultimately, Paul is a brilliant point guard who is going to get a massive contract from someone this summer. In total it will be a significant overpay. The hope for the team that acquires him is that he can lead them to a title in the first year or two. After that, his contract may become one of the ugliest in the NBA.