Tour de France 2018 preview: Favorites, predictions and picks
By Zach Bigalke
Who is the favorite for the green jersey of the race leader on points?
Last year, Peter Sagan was derailed in his quest for a sixth straight green jersey at the Tour de France. Coming into contact with rival Mark Cavendish in the finishing sprint of the fourth stage, Sagan shoved back against Cavendish and pushed the Manx speedster into the barrier. Sagan was disqualified after finishing second, ending his green jersey hopes prematurely.
This year Sagan is back, and he is wearing the rainbow jersey of the UCI world champion for a third consecutive year to start the race. He is on incredible form, and the reigning Paris-Roubaix winner will be a favorite to win on the cobblestones in stage 9. He also won Gent-Wevelgem, and finished in the top six of the Amstel Gold Race, Tour of Flanders, and Milano-San Remo this spring.
Sagan also took the points classification at two races so far this year. The first was the Tour Down Under early in the season. Then Sagan won the points title at the Tour de Suisse to bookend his showing in the spring classics. The Slovakian national champion will look to avenge his early exit from last year’s race that prevented him from equaling Erik Zabel’s six straight green jerseys from 1996 to 2001. Like last season, the best hope for Sagan’s challengers might be a disqualification.
Which other riders might snatch the green jersey?
Michael Matthews: The defending points champion was the beneficiary of Sagan’s poor judgment early in last year’s Tour de France. While Matthews hasn’t had nearly as strong a spring campaign as the favorite, though, it would be foolish to completely discount the 27-year-old Australian. Matthews was third in the green jersey battle in 2016 before breaking through last year.
André Greipel: Greipel has been one of the top sprinters of his generation. At 35 years old, time is running out for the German to add to the Vuelta points title he won back in 2009. Greipel won 11 stages so far at the Tour de France over his career. He has finished runner-up in the green jersey race on three occasions. One was last year, when he finished well behind Matthews. This will likely be Greipel’s last hurrah at the Tour.
Marcel Kittel: Kittel is another sprinter in the classic German mold. Time is not running out nearly as quickly as it is for Greipel, but Kittel is now 30 years old. He hasn’t had the best spring, winning two stages at Tirreno-Adriatico but coming up empty ever since. Kittel has underperformed since leaving Quick Step, and the shift to Katusha could prevent him from contending this year at the Tour.
Fernando Gaviria: It would hardly be a surprise if Gaviria broke out to win several Tour de France stages in his race debut. The Colombian sprinter replaced Kittel as the main speedster at Quick Step, and at 23 years old he might not yet have the experience to contend for the green jersey over three full weeks. But he has one of the strongest teams possible to bolster chances to snatch points in the sprints. If Gaviria gets the jersey early it could make this classification interesting.