Karlsson will feel the heat on one-year deal

The Vegas Golden Knights and center William Karlsson agreed to a new deal on Saturday, putting pressure on the player to follow through.

It must be an odd feeling for an athlete to play so well, only to be met with little confidence when the time comes for talk of dollars and cents. Such is likely the case for William Karlsson, the Vegas Golden Knights center who rode out from an absolute abyss to pop 43 goals in 2017-18 and help lead his club to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance.

There was plenty of opinion on what Vegas should do with him once the season ended: Do the Golden Knights sign him long-term? Or maybe they trade him when he’s likely at his peak value.

The debate has been rightfully explored: In 183 games with the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets, Karlsson scored a grand total of 18 goals. To more than double that in one season is wonderful for the player, yet no doubt will make a team awful inquisitive as to what the future holds.

The two sides ultimately agreed on Saturday to a one-year contract worth $5.25 million, and hindsight on this is 20/20. It’s a good move by Vegas. In fact, it’s the logical and smart move, and it now means the pressure is firmly on the player to replicate at least a fraction of what he did last campaign.

Before arriving in Nevada, Karlsson had never scored more than 9 goals in a season. His highest points total was 25 the year previous and it came with a 6.3 shooting percentage. That rose to an elephantine 23.4 clip while also nearly doubling the shots total from 96 to 184. For clarity sake, shooting 23 percent is Mario Lemieux territory. Even Brett Hull only shot above 20 once in a full season.

The takeaway is that you have to be really, really good to maintain a level of play on par with what Karlsson did in one lone year with the Golden Knights. In other words, it’s very unlikely and is what makes this a classic prove-it deal. But again, the heat isn’t on to score another 40 goals. The heat is on to score at least 15 to 20 and put up 40 or 50 points, numbers which would bear out if you doubled his production from two years back.

And it’s much more realistic. If he shoots 8.3 percent on 184 shots, he’s hovering at 22 goals. He’s also seeing more ice time and is playing with talented wingers in Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith. The Golden Knights understand this, and that’s also what makes this deal fair for both sides.

Karlsson put up a superstar level of production but he was never going to get that kind of money, at least not at the moment. Even he knew it as his arbitration stance was in the $6 million range. Vegas agreeing on $5.25 million is in line with what he’s likely to produce this season if and when his numbers dip—Tom Wilson argument aside.

He also remains a restricted free agent once this year is over, meaning if he goes back to scoring only 10 goals and 25 points, the Golden Knights didn’t maim themselves in this process.

But let’s err on the side of positivity. With more playing time and with talent surrounding him, Karlsson probably isn’t falling back to 10 goals and 25 points. Would it be a slight disappointment if he doesn’t at least hit the net 25 or 30 times? Sure. But he is a good player and both sides are winners in the deal. It isn’t total luck to score 78 points in the NHL, even if you’ve never done it before.

Still, it doesn’t change the fact that Karlsson has to perform to the level of the contract. It might not be likely that he falls completely off the cliff after one great season, but we really have no idea until the campaign actually begins. Imagine the debate on that next contract if he does go bust.