Only so many players can make our illustrious 25-under-25 list, but in a league flush with young talent, these 10 names should still be on everyone’s radar.
When you’re talking about the best young players in the NBA, they generally fall into one of three categories: the sure things (the top 10 or so in these rankings), the “I’m almost positive this guy will have a better career than Anthony Randolph” group (the rest of the players who made the list), and finally, the category of young men most likely to get a GM fired.
Welcome to the best of the rest.
The reason the 10 players that appear here stand a decent chance at imperiling a job or two is because they blend a dangerous combination of potential and uncertainty. On one hand, there’s enough going on here that a bunch of smart NBA observers (and me) rated them higher than the names of 65 other young, intriguing players (and Paul Zipser). On the other hand, there’s enough uncertainty with each one to keep them out of the prime group.
Need proof that these ten names are the ultimate grab bag? Just look at last year’s verison. Occupying the No. 34 spot in 2017 was someone who’s since become arguably one of the five most untouchable assets in the game, Jayson Tatum. Three spots higher on the list? That would be Norman Powell, whose four-year, $42 million extension isn’t quite the bargain the Raptors thought they were getting when he inked it last offseason.
That’s the thing with potential — it’s intoxicating to the point that you think the high will last forever. It’s so easy to dwell on the success stories.
Of the next 10 names, here’s betting most will make their ranking look silly this time next year. The only question is how much further up or down the list they’ll be.
We start with a player who’s already on his second team and may very well be on his third when the next edition of these rankings come out.
35. D’Angelo Russell, Brooklyn Nets
D’Angelo Russell’s ship has been on choppy waters almost from the moment he came into the league.
The Nick Young / Iggy Azelia locker room recording incident (a phrase that still makes me question our shelf life as a civilization) defined his rookie year, which is probably for the best. On the court, he wasn’t very good as either a shooter (50.7 true shooting percentage) or a distributor (21.2 assist rate, low for a point guard).
Freed from the shackles of the Kobe retirement tour, his sophomore season was a bit better but still below what you’d expect from a second-year player who’d been handed the keys to the offense. Shipped off to the Nets as the Timofey Mozgov tax last summer, Russell figured to benefit from a staff that exceled at developing talent.
He did…sort of. On one hand, his per-36 minute numbers were the best of his career and his assist rate was among the league leaders. On the other hand, his shooting regressed (32.4 percent from downtown) and injuries limited him to 48 games and just 35 starts. His incredibly high usage also makes his assist numbers a bit less impressive. A late-March benching never became a huge story, but it wasn’t exactly the type of thing you’d expect to see with a franchise player.
Whether or not Russell is a franchise-type talent is less in dispute than whether he’ll ever actualize that ability, but that’s not a distinction the Nets have the luxury of waiting much longer to figure out. Russell is currently extension eligible, and the two sides have reportedly not discussed a new contract.
The former Laker almost certainly fancies himself a max player or something close to it. With plenty of teams having cash to blow next summer, there’s a strong chance one of the league’s lesser lights will make an aggressive play if given the opportunity.
For Russell to justify the Nets matching, he’d have to elevate his game to heights that have thus far only come in spurts. At this point, simply establishing himself as the best point guard on Brooklyn’s roster would count as progress. Baby steps, indeed.
34. Kyle Kuzma, Los Angeles Lakers
How fitting that the most surprising rookie from last year’s class comes in one spot higher than the man who made his existence as a Laker a possibility.
Last summer, the pick that became Kyle Kuzma was included in the deal that excised D’Angelo Russell from tinseltown. The Nets probably never expected someone picked No. 27 in the draft to outplay the crown jewel of their offseason, but it’s hard to argue otherwise. Last season, according to Basketball-Reference.com, Kuzma became just the 13th rookie in the last 20 years to average 16 points per game while sporting at least a 54 true shooting percentage. He is the only one of the group who was drafted outside of the lottery.
Aside from wondering what he can do for a follow up, the biggest question now surrounding Kuzma is how long he’ll be making those improvements for the Lakers. It’s possible that LA will keep all of its young talent and try to land another big fish next summer, but if a trade materializes in the meantime, you can bet they won’t hesitate to break up the clubhouse. Given Brandon Ingram’s ceiling and the uncertain trade value of Lonzo Ball, Kuzma is a natural candidate to be the centerpiece of any package.
What he would net in a trade depends on whether anyone sees him as more than simply a one-dimensional scorer. The shooting seems to be legit, and at 6-foot-9, he offers all kinds of positional versatility. If Kuzma can play even a lick of defense (the Lakers were considerably better on that end when he was off the floor), Kuzma will make the top 25 next season. What uniform he’ll be wearing at the time is anyone’s guess.
33. Jusuf Nurkic, Portland Trail Blazers
It must be nice to play for a franchise so deep in salary cap hell that it handed over a contract which would have been nearly impossible to find on the open market.
Heading into free agency, the Portland Trail Blazers would have had every right to look Nurkic in the eye and challenge him to go find someone willing to pay him serious dollars. They drafted Zach Collins in 2017 who, while still fairly raw, showed ample evidence of being a keeper. Nurkic, it could be argued, was superfluous.
Meanwhile, the market for big men this July was somewhere between the temperature of your fridge and your freezer. Other than Nikola Jokic and Clint Capela, Nurkic was the only true center to sign for more than two guaranteed years. His annual salary also dwarfs those of other bigs on new deals like Julius Randle (two years, $17.7 million), Jerami Grant (three years, $27.3 million) and Montrezl Harrell (two years, $12 million), all of whom are in some ways better fits for the modern game.
This isn’t to say Nurkic isn’t a beast when he wants to be. Last year, he was one of four players — Joel Embiid, DeMarcus Cousins and Karl-Anthony Towns were the others — to average 19 points, 12 rebounds, two assists and a block per 36 minutes. Still, his impact wasn’t the same as when Portland first acquired him midway through 2016. Following the trade, the Blazers outscored opponents by nearly 10 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor.
That number fell precipitously last year, which preceded a playoff sweep that saw Nurkic get played off the floor. The big man averaged just 20 minutes against Anthony Davis and the Pelicans over the series’ first three games, after which the outcome was essentially decided. To say he was ineffective is putting it kindly.
Portland has to hope there is still room for improvement. Nurkic just turned 24, but even so, it seems unlikely he’ll ever live up to the promise that once had him blocking Nikola Jokic’s path to playing time in Denver.
32. Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs
Perhaps it’s appropriate that after 17 seasons running point for the most successful NBA franchise this century, Tony Parker picked now to find a new home.
If Parker was around next season, his shadow would still be looming over the position he successfully manned for so long. Without him, his successor will finally take the reins on a job he seems more than ready for.
On defense, Dejounte Murray is already among the best point guards in the league. With Murray on the floor, the Spurs gave up a measly 98.1 points per 100 possessions, over three points better than the league leading Celtics. Without him, their defense fell off a cliff, perhaps due to his proclivity for steals and rebounds. Last season, he became the fifth player ever — along with Russell Westbrook, Grant Hill, Larry Bird and George McGinnis — to have a steal rate over 2.5, a rebound rate over 14 and an assist rate over 20 in the same season, according to Basketball-Reference.com. He was easily the youngest to pull off the feat.
As a scorer, he’s still a work in progress, but there’s hope. With Murray on the floor, the Spurs scored most efficiently when their young guard shared the court with Manu Ginobili or Patty Mills, two guards who could shoulder some of the ball-handling load. He also largely ditched the 3, which worked wonders for Parker once upon a time. Still, 48.5 true shooting is what it is, and it’s what keeps him out of the top 25 here.
Until he learns to shoot with at least some modicum of consistency, San Antonio will have to continue being creative to generate enough points with him in the lineup. He’s only about to turn 22 though, and at a long 6-foot-5, he’s the model for the modern floor general. Considering how he handled a five-fold increase in minutes last season, Murray should be just fine.
31. Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic
I don’t know what Jonathan Isaac is going to be as an NBA player, nor does any other writer. Neither do the Orlando Magic, or anyone else in the league. If someone claims to know what his ceiling (or floor) is, they’re lying. We simply haven’t seen enough to make any judgment.
Here’s what we do know: he’s still not old enough to drink, is nearly 7-feet tall, hit 34.8 percent of his 3s last season and can move like a gazelle. Other than that, it’s anyone’s guess how he continues to develop.
While it’s almost certainly coincidental that Orlando’s season fell apart after Isaac went down with an ankle injury that ultimately cost him 55 games (they were 8-4 with him in the lineup early on), there’s no denying his impact on their defense. With Isaac on the floor, their normally 20th ranked defense was more efficient than the league-leading Celtics. His instincts on that end are already advanced, and he has the size and speed to cover just about anyone in the NBA.
On offense, Isaac is a lump of clay. Ben Falk recently threw a little cold water on a summer league performance that garnered a fair bit of praise, but it was undoubtedly a step in the right direction.
He had nowhere to go but up. Last year, the Magic scored a hair over 94 points per 100 possessions with Isaac on the floor, which was the third worst individual offensive rating in the league for someone who appeared in at least 25 games. Combined with a 46.5 true shooting percentage, its’s fair to wonder whether placing him this high in the honorable mention category is unwarranted despite his prodigious talent.
Sadly, we might not find out this season. Isaac will once again play on a team with perhaps the worst point guard situation in the NBA, and Aaron Gordon is still around blocking the path to his ideal position. If nothing else, playing close to 82 games should offer a bit more clarity on what we should all expect moving forward.
30. Deandre Ayton, Phoenix Suns
Spoiler Alert: Despite being the No. 1 overall pick in July’s NBA Draft, Deandre Ayton is not the highest ranked rookie on this list. Not even close, actually. Three rookies made the top 25 (I’ll leave you in suspense as to which ones), including a few other big men.
So why is Ayton, who along with Luca Doncic was universally regarded as a top-two prospect in his class, down here while others drafted after him have leapfrogged the 250-pound behemoth seemingly built for the modern game?
There’s not a great answer. Summer League didn’t show us much, and it’s not as if Ayton has had any off-court transgressions which would make anyone doubt his preparedness for the NBA.
Could it be the fact that he was drafted by the Phoenix Suns, an organization that hasn’t been able to get out of its own way since the day they traded Steve Nash? Possibly. It could also have to do with the fact that Ayton’s ceiling is Joel Embiid — a player who was essentially run off the court in the playoffs by a new-age Boston team that made even the best center in the NBA look obsolete at times.
If someone’s best case scenario is a player who we’re not totally sure can stay on the court at the highest levels of modern NBA competition, and there’s some doubt as to whether he even reaches that plateau, well…he ends up here. Still, if there’s one omission from our top 25 that will make us all look likes clowns a year from now, it’s this one.
29. Dennis Smith Jr., Dallas Mavericks
Rook. Newbie. Neophyte. Young’n. “Grab my bag.”
Whatever term you want to use, Dennis Smith Jr. was a rookie in every sense of the word last year.
He was raw, inconsistent, and on most nights, not very helpful to the cause of winning basketball games. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Mavs scored 10.2 points less per 100 possessions with DSJ on the court than when he sat, a figure that ranks in the tenth percentile league-wide. This isn’t exactly news considering a 47.3 true shooting percentage that ranked dead last amongst the 52 players in the league last year with a usage rate over 25 and who appeared in over 20 games.
Smith Jr. was also the only 20-year-old on that list. That Rick Carlisle, someone who’s coached Chauncey Billups and Jason Kidd and played with Larry Bird, thought enough of the young man to hand over the keys to the car and say “drive” says far more about his prospects as a future floor general than any numbers from last year.
There were some brights spots. His assist rate was second highest among rookies behind only Ben Simmons, and he got to the rim at will, taking nearly 40 percent of his shot attempts at close range. Most importunely, he was healthy the entire year and showed zero after-effects of a torn ACL that caused him to miss his senior year of high school.
The question now will be how he adjusts to spending more time off the ball in an offense that will be run through wunderkind Luka Doncic a fair amount. The good news for Mavs fans: this year is all about experimentation. 82 games should be enough to get it right.
28. John Collins, Atlanta Hawks
It’s fair to wonder whether or not right this second John Collins is the third best member of the 2017 draft class.
After Donovan Mitchell and Jason Tatum, Collins had arguably the best rookie season among players selected last June (sorry Ben Simmons, #notarookie). After inexplicably falling to the 19th pick behind guys like Justin Patton, D.J. Wilson and T.J. Leaf, the former Demon Deacon finished seventh in the league in field goal percentage and eighth in offensive rebound rate.
If that was all we had to look forward to from John Collins, he still might have made the honorable mention section here. Contrary to popular opinion, the classic big men traits of yesteryear aren’t useless quite yet, especially when they come in the package of a versatile athlete like Collins.
That not all though. Late last year, he started hoisting 3s – one per game in March, and then 16 over six games in April, making 35.7 percent over that span. It doesn’t sound like much, but if Collins even remotely resembles a floor-spacer in the near future, he’s going to become a serious problem for opposing defenses.
Best of all, he’ll get every opportunity to succeed in Atlanta moving forward. On a Hawks team that seems like a lock for the worst record in the league, Collins will have time to work on his game in all sorts of creative ways.
By the time the Hawks are actually good again, he figure to play a prominent role in the resurgence.
27. Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors
Let’s pull back the curtain a bit.
When our editor here at the Step Back pitched 25-under-25 this year, the lens through which we were supposed to view players was as follows: put them in order based on the value we expect the player to provide next year, with the caveat that “value” might also mean things like star factor, fan excitement, etc.
Does anyone think Fred Van Vleet is the 27th most exciting player in the league under the age of 25? Doubtful. Does he have the 27th highest ceiling? Hell, he might not have the 72nd highest ceiling.
But as the Kawhi Leonard trade showed, the Toronto Raptors are all in on next season, and if they’re going to come close to achieving their goals, Fred VanVleet is going to be a huge part of that.
Put aside the playoff series versus Cleveland. Thanks to a shoulder injury suffered in the last game of the regular season, he clearly wasn’t himself. Before that though, the undrafted guard out of Wichita State was part of a well-chronicled bench mob that bludgeoned teams to the tune of a 17.1 net rating over 340 minutes. That’s not all; in the 101 minutes he played with the Raptors four other consistent starters, that number rose to 24.9.
He’s back in Toronto on a two-year, $18 million deal that should make him one of the best bargains in the league. If the Raptors do end up playing into June, his return to full health will be a huge reason why.
26. Terry Rozier, Boston Celtics
It’s almost too perfect that the last cut to the top 25 is a man who’s seemingly been knocking on the door to the Exciting Young Players Club for a while now but hasn’t quite been able to pay the cover charge.
He appears about ready to bash down the door.
Last season, when Kyrie Irving played with the Celtics other four starters, they destroyed teams by an outstanding 13.4 points per 100 possessions. When Rozier took his place? The number jumped to 16.2 over a not-insignificant 115 minutes.
It’s not altogether surprising considering what a unique player he is — someone who puts a lot on the table without taking much, if anything, off of it. Last year, Rozier was the only player in the NBA with per-36 minutes averages of 15 points, six boards, four assists, one steal and under two turnovers. According to Cleaning the Glass, the Louisville product had a turnover rate in the top three percent of all players at his position, and when he was on the court, Celtics’ opponents rarely got out in transition off of steals. He did all this while shooting 38.1 percent from downtown on five attempts per game.
Sounds like a franchise-caliber starting point guard, right? Maybe at some point, but as of now, there’s still some cause for concern.
That same Rozier-plus-starters group plummeted to a negative 12.1 net rating over 85 playoff minutes. Digging deeper, we see that as Rozier went, so went the Celtics. In Boston’s 11 postseason wins, he shot 40.7 percent from three, but only 27.2 percent in their eight losses. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that the Celtics came up short in all four games when Rozier took double digit attempts from long range, including the 0-for-10 Game 7 clunker against Cleveland.
Clearly, Rozier needs to up his consistency from deep while also improving his shooting elsewhere (he hit just 41 percent of his 2-point attempts, struggled getting to the rim at times, and made an abysmal 49 percent of the shots he took when he got there). If he cleans up this area of his game, some team is going to make a huge investment in Rozier next offseason. If that’s the case, he should finally have enough green to get into the club after all.