NFL DFS: GPP Pivots for Week 5

NFL DFS: GPP Pivots for Week 5

Welcome back to NFL DFS GPP pivots and I hope you’re as pumped as I am for week 5. This week is shaping up to be another high scoring one, and unlike last week there are a number of games with shootout potential that we can target for GPPs.

Let’s start by talking about the chalkiest game on the slate. The Atlanta Falcons visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in this week’s highest total game (currently all the way up to 57.5) in a matchup between teams with good offenses but defenses that cannot stop anyone. I expect this to be one of the most popular games targeted by DFS players on Sunday, and there are some solid plays that shouldn’t be ignored in cash games (Calvin Ridley, Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald) but I do think there is a case to be made for being underweight on some of the bigger name players from each side.  There are five other games with 49+ point totals this week, so let’s go position by position to see where we can differentiate our GPP lineups.

NFL DFS Quarterback Pivots

Chalk: Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan

Pivots: Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff

The Red-Rifle Andy Dalton has been very reliable this year, throwing for 250 yards and two or more TDs in all four of the Bengals games and leading them to a surprising 3-1 start. With Joe Mixon looking dicey again this week, we could see Cincy go with another pass-heavy approach against Miami. In his last three games, Dalton has attempted over 40 passes and Miami’s bend-but-don’t break defense was finally broken by Tom Brady and the Pats last week.  With the Bengals having the fourth highest implied team total on the main slate, I’m looking to get some exposure to Dalton and his new favorite weapon (more on him later).

Philip Rivers is in a great spot this week against a poor Oakland pass defense. The Browns and Baker Mayfield put 42 on these Raiders last week and now Rivers and the high-powered Chargers offense will get their turn. Rivers has been quietly very good in his first four games, completing nearly 70% of his throws for 11 touchdowns and only 2 picks. The last time he faced Oakland he torched them for 387 yards and 3 TDs.  I think Melvin Gordon comes in as the chalkiest Charger on Sunday, but I love rostering Rivers in this game that could end up shooting out. And you can always pair Rivers with Gordon since Melvin is heavily involved in the passing game (4 receiving TDs last year and 3 already this season).

Jared Goff has been, well…really damn impressive. If you watched his Thursday night masterpiece last week against the Vikings, you saw a young QB with a lot of weapons who is playing with a lot of confidence in one of the best offensive schemes in the league.  The match-up with Seattle screams “Todd Gurley game” as they are much worse against the run, and while Gurley will be a cash staple of mine, I think Goff is still an excellent option and can be paired with any of his three excellent receivers (Kupp, Woods, and Cooks – which I like in that order)

NFL DFS Running Back Pivots

Chalk: Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, Christian McCaffrey

Pivots: Marshawn Lynch, James Conner, T.J Yeldon, Aaron Jones

Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch is going to be one of my highest owned RBs this week. This match-up is juicy for the Raiders, as this game now has the second highest total on the board and the Chargers have given up 20+ points in all four of their games this season. Any Charger fan will tell you that this team is not good at putting away teams and I can see them letting the Raiders hang around all game.

I think we should expect Coach Gruden is going to continue to feed Lynch. He’s seen his touches increase every week and had 25 last week against the Browns. He’s also the goal line back and has scored a TD in 3 of the Raiders 4 games this season. His price is incredibly affordable across the industry and if he manages 100 scrimmage yards and a TD you’ll be sitting pretty in tourneys.

James Conner is the Steeler that I have the most interest in this week for GPPs. He’s seen his snap count and production come down in the last two games after a really hot start to the season in his first two games. DFS players have short memories and Conner has been a bust the last two weeks.  With all the attention on the Steelers passing game, I’m guessing Conner gets overlooked.  That is a mistake in my opinion, as the Falcons run defense is as porous as their pass defense. Conner’s involvement in the passing game is also huge. He’s seen five or more targets in every game this season and one of the biggest weaknesses of the Falcons is running backs out of the backfield (McCaffrey 14 catches week 2, Kamara 15 catches week 3).

With Leonard Fournette‘s declared out just today, T.J Yeldon should be firmly on your radar against the 30th ranked Chiefs defense. Yeldon is coming off his best game of the season in which he racked up 100 total yards from scrimmage and scored two TDs (one rushing, one receiving). I was hoping Fournette’s status lingered a few days longer so that Yeldon would get less hype this week, but I still think he could go under-owned with how many other good backs are on the slate.

Aaron Jones might be best reserved for large multi-entry tournaments, but the match-up couldn’t be better for the Packers running back as he faces one of the worst run defenses in Detroit.  Jones out-snapped Jamaal Williams 29 to 28 last week and much more productive with his 11 carries (65 yards and a TD) than Williams was (27 yards). If Jones has earned a bigger share of the carries this week, he could have a big game and is really cheap on DK at only 4300.

NFL DFS Wide Receiver Pivots

Chalk: Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Stefan Ridley, Tyler Boyd

Pivots:  Adam Thielen, John Brown, Sterling Shepard

Let me just start by saying I plan to have exposure to all 4 of the chalky plays I listed here, especially Tyler Boyd who has emerged as Andy Dalton’s favorite target and is still way too cheap for the amount of volume he should get with Tyler Eifert out.

Adam Thielen has been an absolute target monster with 12 or more in all 4 of the Vikings’ games this season. While I’m not looking to load up on the Eagles-Vikings game all that much, this individual match-up stands out as one that Thielen and Cousins could exploit. Philly has been good against the run but has shown some vulnerabilities in their pass defense, especially to WR2 who usually operate in the slot. I think Cousins will continue to rely on Thielen in the short passing game and he could have another big game with the volume of passes coming his way.

John Brown is third in the NFL in air yards, meaning Flacco is throwing him the ball down the field as the main deep threat in the Ravens’ passing game. He had two big catches last week against the Steelers, one that went for a TD and he’s showing signs of being a reliable fantasy asset on a weekly basis. He’s never going to have massive volume, which takes him out of cash consideration most weeks, but he’s going to be a GPP option nearly every week. I love him this week against the Browns secondary that got lit up last week by Derek Carr and the Raiders. Brown is still way too cheap on most sites for the type of upside he brings this week.

I’m going back to Sterling Shepard this week, despite a perceived tougher matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Shepard was “good chalk” last week as he caught all 10 of his targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. With Evan Engram still out, Eli should continue to lean heavily on Shepard in the short passing game and Carolina’s slot corners are the defenders we want to attack in that defense. While many DFS players will move on to a new flavor of the week, I’m going to continue to load up on this underpriced wideout in GPPs.

NFL DFS Tight End Pivots

Chalk: Vance McDonald

Pivot: George Kittle

I am locking Vance “stiff-arm” McDonald into my cash lineups as he’s just too cheap across the industry for his current role as Ben’s new check-down target. Don’t forget that McDonald is not the only TE on the Steelers roster, and Jesse James could resurface at any time. Or Ben could target his backs or receivers more this week. You get the point, no player is ever totally safe in DFS.

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George Kittle finally had his big breakout game last week, as he had 6 grabs for 125 yards and a TD. 82 of those yards came on one play as his college teammate and new 49ers starter C.J. Beathard, connected with Kittle for a huge play. They clearly have a good chemistry and I would expect Kittle to get peppered with targets again by his buddy Beathard. Kittle is now priced up as the TE3 on FD which could help to keep his ownership down.

NFL DFS Defense Pivots

Chalk: Tennessee Titans

Pivot: Denver

Tennessee’s defense is so badly mispriced on Fanduel at 3900 (14th most expensive, while they’re 4000 and highest priced defense on DK) that it should be a cash lock. However, the Denver defense is probably my favorite for tournaments as they are coming off a strong showing against the Chiefs, one of the best offenses in the league, and will get to face Sam Darnold and the Jets mediocre offense. Darnold has already thrown 5 interceptions this season, and I like attacking him in this spot. Hopefully, the Denver run defense bounces back from a rough night against Kareem Hunt and forces Darnold into a lot of passing situations, which could result in sacks and interceptions and delicious fantasy points.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NFL DFS news and analysis all season long!