College basketball is in full swing, and that means that it’s time to reassess the standing of some prospects in the 2019 NBA Draft class.
As is customary, the first two weeks of the college basketball season have been about adjusting expectations for NBA Draft scouts. The years of high school tape we have on some of the class’s elite talent is now supplemented with the context of how players look against similar talent. Some players are put in new roles that better fit their skills; others have looked overwhelmed or pinned into bad fits for their style of play. We’re learning which freshmen are headed for being one-and-done, and which aren’t, and we’re learning which upperclassmen have taken significant leaps towards putting their names into the draft pool in June.
Granted, most teams have only played three or four games at this point, and outside of a few marquee matchups, a lot of that tape has come against the Stetsons and Portland States of the world. The college season is long, and there’s plenty of time for struggling players to improve and for hot starters to fall off. But so far, we have been able to learn a few good lessons about individual players, and the class as a whole.
Most notably, the class does not look as poor as initially thought. The top of the class looks quite a bit better than it did going in, with Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Cameron Reddish all looking like sure top-five picks on what appears to be a flying death machine at Duke. Predictably, there have been some players that have also risen up the board by looking much better than anticipated. Players like Kevin Porter of USC and Darius Garland of Vanderbilt might be giving the lottery more value, and with more cream rising to the top as the season goes on, it looks like the year’s depth problem may have been slightly overstated.
This week is tournament week, with the Thanksgiving holiday meaning that the Maui Invitational, NIT Tip-Off, and Las Vegas Invitational feature quality matchups for almost all of the top prospects. That means that it’s a little early for a full big board update. But for now, here are eight players who are migrating up or down the board, based on their early season play.
Stock Up: Zion Williamson, Duke
The tests weren’t particularly strenuous, as Duke has ripped Kentucky, Army, and Eastern Michigan limb from limb, but Williamson has passed his early season exam with flying colors. The biggest question for Williamson going into the season was if he was going to continue to dominate athletically in college as he did in high school. The answer?
Definitely.
Williamson has taken over the early part of the season and is now the popular pick as the top player in the class. The reasons for that are pretty simple — Williamson is the most athletically dominant player in the class and combines that with an advanced skill set that lends to the idea that questions about his position heading into the NBA are probably overblown. Zion adds tremendous craft to his athleticism as a finisher, he’s a high-level passer, and while he hasn’t been consistent, the idea that he can be a weak-side rim protector isn’t out of the realm of possibility. So far, Zion has transcended traditional role archetypes. His uniqueness isn’t a problem, it’s a strength, and if he continues to play like this, he will end the idea that there’s no true franchise-changing talent in this draft class.
Stock Down: Nassir Little
Little is still firmly a tier one player in this class, as his shooting off the dribble is still one of the most coveted skills in this class. He is a special shooter, with the ability to align his body on pull-ups in an instant, especially under pressure. This is still probably the second-best skill in the class outside of Williamson’s finishing.
However, other aspects of Little’s game haven’t been as effective as they looked in his high school tape. For one, his team defense has been a little suspect early on, as he’s struggled to make necessary rotations and read and react to offensive sets when defending off-ball. He also hasn’t really been effective as a playmaker outside of his pull-up shooting, instead, acting as more of a secondary scorer in UNC’s offense. When you compare Little’s performance to R.J. Barrett, Barrett looks like more of a complete lead guard prospect currently.
The season is young, and it’s not as if Little has been a failure. He still has looked quite good in his minutes for the Tar Heels, and not many freshmen look particularly good as team defenders right now. But in the context of the top tier of the class, Little looks a clear step behind Barrett and Williamson right now, and more on par with Cameron Reddish in the battle for the class’s third-best player.
Stock Up: Kevin Porter Jr., USC
Porter was a bit underrated headed into this season — he was ranked 40th on ESPN’s Top 100 for the 2018 recruiting class. He wasn’t even USC’s top-rated recruit. But through three games, he has established himself as a very intriguing player for the 2019 NBA Draft. A strong, 6-foot-6 wing, Porter has looked like an NBA athlete so far and is second on the team in scoring behind Nikola Rackocevic.
What has really been impressive with Porter is his scoring ability. He has shown an array of finishing moves, and his handle, while not notably tight or fluid, is developing nicely from what we saw in high school.
He also has shown some intriguing off-the-dribble shooting and feels pretty comfortable coming off dribble handoffs and shooting against pressure. This could all indicate that Porter’s creation ceiling is much higher than we initially thought.
Where we will need to see Porter continue to improve is in the halfcourt offense. He looks much better in transition and semi-transition possessions currently, especially as a finisher, and his shot selection can be a little worrisome at times. He also doesn’t seem to be the best communicator on defense, even though his body type and athleticism would allow for him to become a pretty good defensive player. If he can build on those two areas as the season goes on, the guy who started the season at number 67 on our preseason top 100 could go in the lottery.
Stock Down: Quentin Grimes, Kansas
The results for Grimes so far have been pretty strong: 12.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game with a blistering 56.3 percent from 3 on 16 attempts so far. However, outside of that shooting, Grimes has been a bit of a disappointment, because the process for getting those results has been pretty poor. Billed as an athletic combo guard who can run the point guard spot and defend on the wing, Grimes has not looked particularly stunning from an NBA perspective.
Most problematic to date has been Grimes’s defense. While he has all of the tools to be a strong on-ball defender at the college level, his off-ball defense has been problematic. He has been a prolific ball-watcher on the perimeter and struggles to react to plays as they develop. Michigan State back-cut him to death in the opener, and that’s going to happen to him in the NBA as well if he keeps making decisions like this.
Offensively, the athletic dominance he showed in high school isn’t translating at the rim so far, where he’s converting just a third of his chances, per Hoop-Math. He has struggled to get an edge on perimeter defenders off the bounce, and he hasn’t done much to dislodge defenders on drives so far.
Grimes’s shooting has been solid so far, but there’s very little chance he continues to hit over 55 percent from 3 for the season. That’s problematic because the other aspects of his game aren’t really coming together at this point, especially on the defensive end. I was a little lower on Grimes to start the season than most people, and so far, he’s justified that on the floor.
Stock Up: Keldon Johnson, Kentucky
Johnson is one of those players, like Porter, who has bolstered the depth of the class by likely joining the second tier of prospects in the back half of the top-10. His performance has been mostly impressive on the defensive end, where he’s shown off his versatility as an on-ball defender, especially against Duke, where he was tasked with defending each of the Big Three as well as Tre Jones throughout the game. His size and upper body strength really make him an impediment on drives, and he proved himself well against Barrett in particular, stoning him on three possessions throughout the game.
Johnson projects as a two-way complimentary wing who provides quality defense and accessory scoring off of a lead ball-handler. He’s looked strong coming off screens and curling to the rim, and his catch-and-shoot jumper is developing.
Johnson’s positional size and defensive skill set are enough to break into the top-10 of this class, and if he can develop his jumper throughout the season, it’s going to be difficult to keep him out of the top five. It’s unlikely he becomes a star in the NBA, but two-way wings are valuable, and that looks like his future at the next level.
Stock Down: Tyler Herro, Kentucky
While Johnson has proven he has an NBA future, it’s been very difficult to say the same about many of his Kentucky teammates, especially Herro. Billed as one of the freshman class’s best shooters, Herro has hit just two of his 10 3-point attempts so far, and is shooting under 40 percent from the field.
The problem has been that Herro just doesn’t seem to be able to translate his shot-making ability into a functional role in Kentucky’s offense. Instead of feasting on spot-ups, he has mostly been taking off-the-dribble jumpers, many of which come early in the shot clock. Teams know what’s coming in these situations, as he hasn’t shown the ability to separate on drives. When projecting him to the NBA, you’d expect a player with his skill set to be shooting off movement, and we’ve seen very little of this from him so far. That is fairly concerning.
His defense has also been a disaster to this point, despite what are impressive steal and block rates in a vacuum. He has poor technique on this end — rarely sitting in a stance, and hopping around with a twitchy nature that takes him out of position for no reason. It’s hard to see him becoming even a functional defender in the Kevin Huerter mold at this point.
It’s early, and there’s time for the shot to stabilize and for Herro to improve. But right now, he looks far from an NBA level player, despite the hype that he could be one of the best shooters in the class.
Stock Up: Grant Williams, Tennessee
Tennessee is a top-five team, and that’s been because of Williams, who looks like he’ll be rising up the draft board as the season progresses. The junior forward has an odd body type — 6-foot-5, 234 pounds — but he’s surprisingly nimble and is one of the most versatile offensive players in the country. Williams routinely drifts between roles for Tennessee — taking guards down into the post on one possession, then coming off a screen into a pick-and-roll on the next. The result — 22 points per game on 64.7 percent shooting with 3.7 assists per game.
Translating to the next level, Williams is likely to be a secondary playmaking wing, relying less on his post skills and more on a developing jumper and his court vision, which is excellent. He also is a skilled team defender and has no problem switching onto guards or some power forwards thanks to his size.
Williams is yet another player in this class without a traditional size and skill set match. But, the NBA is well equipped for these players to succeed. Williams looks able to make that leap, and his versatile skill set could mean there are multiple paths to him succeeding at the next level.
Stock Down: Romeo Langford, Indiana
The positives: Langford has actually looked pretty strong as a pick-and-roll ball-handler for Indiana so far. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game, and his touch and craft getting into the teeth of the defense have been impressive, given this was not a strength of his coming into the season. He’s very patient with the ball, and he’s made some good progress with his handle.
The negatives are more prominent though, and more concerning. Langford was a lethal catch-and-shoot option in high school, but that well has dried up for him to this point, as he has hit just 2-of-12 3-point attempts and a shocking 52.4 percent from the line. Langford lacks the strength to get to the rim consistently, so it’s going to be difficult for his scoring to translate if he doesn’t have the threat of an outside shot to fall back on.
Granted, it’s only three games, and there’s plenty of time for Langford’s shooting to stabilize. But those splits are very concerning given our prior understanding of his skill set. Langford should be in the conversation for the lottery, but it’s difficult to put him there if he isn’t making shots.