Evaluating the top contenders for the NHL’s Hart Trophy in mid-December
An early look at six contenders for the NHL’s MVP.
We’ve hit the 40 percent mark of the NHL regular season, so now is a good time to take our first look at the top Hart Trophy candidates.
Everyone is still trying to figure out the league’s outliers, and whether new contenders will emerge. This is the NHL, so no one really knows anything — there’s a lot of randomness and unpredictability in this sport, as you may have figured out. I stuck with forwards in deciding the six or so top candidates, given only two non-forwards have won since 2000, and there is no clear Vezina favorite.
So, here you go, in order of current resume:
1. Connor McDavid (Edmonton Oilers)
McDavid is either the best or the second-best player in the league; whichever you consider him, he and Sidney Crosby are on a different planet from everybody else. McDavid, attempting to LeBron the Oilers to the postseason, sits at 48 points while playing the third-most minutes per game among forwards.
His outright dominance on the ice and clear status as the superior hockey player to nearly everyone else on this list should give him an in-road here. His chances could depend on whether the Oilers win some games. Edmonton are in the thick of it in a middling Pacific Division, so McDavid is the Hart favorite.
2. Mikko Rantanen (Colorado Avalanche)
Rantanen, part of that deadly Rantanen-Nathan MacKinnon-Gabriel Landeskog first line in Colorado, leads the NHL in points, putting him automatically on the fast track toward a Hart Trophy.
His concern is that MacKinnon could offset his votes — MacKinnon is tied for second in points, and centers that dominant line. Splitting of votes has hurt Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos in the past.
3. Alex Ovechkin (Washington Capitals)
New discussion has surfaced about whether Ovechkin is the greatest goalscorer of all time, over Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux. (Given his career and that Gretzky faced mailmen with night jobs as goaltenders, Ovechkin is without a doubt the GOAT scorer.)
A hat-trick on Friday helped the Caps win a wild 6-5 game against Carolina in a shootout and put Ovie at 28 goals on the season, easily leading the league. Washington look likely to win the mediocre Metropolitan Division. As long as Ovechkin is leading the Rocket Richard race and the Caps are winning, he’ll be a leading Hart candidate.
4. Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Tampa are the best team in the league again — they’ve picked up 51 points through 33 games, seven better than the closest division leaders. The best player on the best team deserves serious contention every year in this space, and right now that’s Kucherov — he’s fourth in the league in points.
Stamkos shouldn’t disrupt Kucherov’s candidacy as much as in prior years, with 33 points. In fact, Brayden Point’s 11th-highest point total is more of a threat.
5. Johnny Gaudreau (Calgary Flames)
Calgary started the season on fire and joined the Western Conference’s elite with 44 points from 33 games, good for the Pacific lead. Gaudreau, seventh in the league in points, is at the forefront.
As with Kucherov, Gaudreau’s status as a top player on a top team elevates him.
6. Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins)
Sid’s point totals don’t match the others on this list — he’s produced 35 points in 29 games, coincidentally the exact same total as teammates Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel. That shouldn’t preclude Crosby from being a definitive contender for this award.
Crosby is playing some of his best hockey ever, and his vision and nuance on the puck seems to grow with every game. He’s the smartest and most technically sound player in the league and it isn’t particularly close.
Sports have a tendency to devalue the best player in award races. McDavid learned that last year. It’s why LeBron James hasn’t won an MVP since 2013, and why Mike Trout missed out on the AL MVP in 2018. Crosby somehow only has one Hart Trophy despite having been the best player in the world since his rookie season.
He should be in serious contention here solely based on the fact that he’s easily the best player outside of maybe McDavid.
Others who could factor in
Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs): Matthews’s shoulder injury kept him from a spot on this top six, but if he plays a full season the rest of the way, he should have a shot. He’s still second in points-per-game.
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche): As mentioned earlier, the two Avs stars could offset each other. MacKinnon is arguably the better candidate than Rantanen. It will be interesting to see which ultimately finishes higher.
David Pastrnak (Boston Bruins): It feels like the Bruins need some representative here. Pastrnak has scored 21 goals and has been dominant on the power play.
Patrik Laine (Winnipeg Jets): His 23 goals, and the Jets’ 44 points, could give him a shot. Teammate Blake Wheeler also could compete.
A goaltender? Healthy Andrei Vasilevskiy? Marc-Andre Fleury? Pekka Rinne? Tough to tell.
A defenseman? Considering 1999-2000 Chris Pronger was the last d-man to win a Hart Trophy, this seems unlikely. But maybe Mark Giordano, John Carlsen or Kris Letang will stick around.