5 reasons why the Toronto Maple Leafs can win the Stanley Cup

1. The underestimation factor

For the majority of the current season, the Leafs have sported an admirable record at home, clocking in 23 wins, 14 losses and 2 defeats in overtime. Even more impressive, however, is its standing on the road. The club has one of the NHL’s finest away records, capturing 22 wins, 11 losses and 5 defeats in overtime.

They’ve made strong strides in key areas of development, snatching eye-opening victories on nights when some of hockey’s most esteemed critics have written them off. And even though the Buds demonstrate a penchant for playing better against non-playoff teams than they do when facing those in the postseason race — a problematic thought, to say the least — belief among many remains that the franchise is one of the game’s better performers so long as it is able to usher forth and preserve the upper hand against opponents.

For proof of this reality, have a look at the following three categories of assessment. First, the organization’s more favorable statistics:

• When scoring first, the club is 30-6-3.
• When outshooting opponents, the club is 19-12-1.
• When outshot by opponents, the club is 23-11-6.
• When leading after the first period, the club is 24-2-1.
• When leading after the second period, the club is 35-0-1.

Now let’s consider some of the Leafs’ more questionable numbers:

• When opponents score first, the club is 15-19-4.
• When trailing after the first period, the club is 9-14-3.
• When trailing after the second period, the club is 3-22-4.

Finally, let’s take a glance at some of the team’s more unsound tendencies:

• When tied after the first period, the club is 12-9-3.
• When tied after the second period, the club is 7-3-2.

What does all of this mean, you may ask?

The data suggests that the Leafs are a terrific organization when they manage to (a.) establish leads and (b.) maintain them. They’re also very capable of winning games when being outshot — a true testament, more than anything, to the extent to which Andersen is relied upon to clock in big minutes.

It also implies that close matchups — or games wherein the score is even after either the first or second period — are up for grabs. Toronto wins most of these contests, and remains quite competitive in those that they lose.

The most concerning element of the club’s game emerges when the team is trailing opponents. The majority of these contests wind up being defeats, as the Buds struggle to adjust to the burden of meeting its matchups between periods. In large part, this can be attributed to the youthfulness that is the franchise’s defining quality, which shall undoubtedly improve with time and patience.

In any case, it would be a grave mistake to underestimate these Maple Leafs. Seven of the aforementioned ten categories place the organization in a favorable light, while only three of them are of the worrisome variety. They’re fine numbers for any true Stanley Cup contender, which ultimately leaves us with one final question.

Are you in?