MLB Bets – Thursday April 18 – Big Dogs Look Playable
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets central. There are some high plus money dogs today that look worthwhile to try, so let’s talk about them.
Yesterday April 17th MLB Bets went 3-3 winning some juice in the process. The Astros were a late play posted on twitter. The final tally was a gain of 1/2 a unit on the day.
Using 1 unit per bet as the base and allowing for the lay and take, MLB Bets has reached a new season high of +17.29 units.
The 3 large favorites today, excluding Tampa Bay, are Washington, Minnesota and the Yankees. They have a combined record of 22 wins and 24 losses. There’s got to be some value in fading them just from this outside look.
Hopefully today can again produce another winner, so here we go – all times Eastern.
San Francisco (+1.84) is worth a try to upset Washington, 1:05 pm
With the series tied at 1-1, the Giants and Nationals both attempt to win this series today. Looks like a toss-up so let’s take the big juice.
Drew Pomeranz (L) gets the nod for San Fran. He has been steady in his 3 starts this season, posting 5 innings allowing 2 runs each.
Patrick Corbin (L) takes the hill for the Nationals. He has similar stats to his counterpart except in the most recent outing at home versus the Pirates where he pitched very well.
MLB Bets sees either of these 2 pitchers having a good to great day. Assuming there is a slight edge to Washington starting the game, if it’s tied going into the relievers then the game turns into a pick. MLB Bets has been winning juice in taking the dogs and winning half of them. No reason to stop now.
MLB Bets To Win – Blue Jays glide by the Twins
Toronto (+1.59) should be favored to beat Minnesota, 1:10 pm
Toronto has traded wins with the Twins in this series. This afternoon they have starting pitcher superiority.
The Blue Jays send Clay Buchholz (R) to the mound. He only has 1 appearance this season but it was 5 days ago against the hard-hitting Rays, who as a team have scored the 3rd most runs in the American League. He tossed 6 complete innings allowing 1 earned run.
Michael Pineda (R) starts for the Twins. Five days ago hosting Detroit he pitched 6 innings giving up 8 hits and 3 earned runs. The Tigers have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball by a wide margin especially in the American League. They have sent 45 men across the plate compared to the next fewest runs which is 63 by the Indians. The top team, Seattle, has 132 runs by comparison.
All in all, making Toronto this big of an underdog is not reflective of the talent on the field and especially on the mound. MLB Bets wants to split the bet on Toronto, taking half the wager on the 1st 5 inning spread at +1/2 (odds not available at this writing) and half the wager in the game.
According to the game line, Toronto +1/2 in the 1st 5 innings will be close to even money. MLB Bets will update on twitter with the price taken.
Kansas City (+1.80) has enough to humble New York, 6:35 pm
The Royals are yet another team getting the big juice. It’s too much to give a streaky pitcher.
KC sends Homer Bailey (R) to the hill in search of a superb outing. He’s an all or nothing type of hurler as evidenced by his 2 previous starts.
At home versus Seattle he went 5 innings getting smashed for 7 runs. In his last outing against the Indians he pitched 7 innings of 2 hit shutout baseball.
Domingo German (R) has been very good for the Yankees. This is going to appear to be a cakewalk for New York so the expectation is for the line to move even higher. Crazy things happen and there are no gimmies, especially the first game of a new series.
MLB Bets To Win – Diamondbacks rattle the Braves again
Arizona (no line available yet) tops Atlanta, 12:10 pm
Aside from the 3 big dogs, Arizona looks good to continue their winning ways against a seemingly strong Atlanta pitcher. Zona is dominating this series negating this advantage.
Luke Weaver (R) goes for Arizona. He’s improved with every start, culminated by tossing 6.1 innings against San Diego allowing 2 runs with 8 strikeouts and no walks.
Touki Toussaint (R) takes the hill for the Braves making his first start of the season. He’s had 1 appearance in relief this year and it was a good one. It will enhance the line and public opinion toward Atlanta and should give us ample room to make a value play.
MLB Bets will twitter the line taken during the day. As of this overnight writing nothing is showing across the board.
NOTE: No line is out yet, but it appears Mike Soroka will go for the Braves over Toussaint.
Colorado (+1.01) somehow knocks off Philadelphia, 8:40 pm
This is one of those games that seem easy as pie. Somehow it doesn’t pan out.
The Phillies are 11-6, the Rockies are 6-12 and 0-5 at home. Philly has a run differential of +17 while the Rockies are -23. The pitching match-up strongly favors Philadelphia from an ERA perspective.
As of this writing a whopping 92% of all bets are cascading in on the Phillies, yet the line is pick. This is almost unheard of. When this big of a plurality shows up, it almost always is on a substantial favorite. In this case Philly opened -1.10 and is still there.
MLB Bets To Win Recap For Thursday April 18th:
San Francisco +1.84
Toronto half on game at +1.59 and half on 1st 5 innings plus 1/2 a run even money
Kansas City +1.80
Arizona (no line available yet)
Colorado +1.01
Additional plays or cancellations will be tweeted during the day.
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