MLB Bets – Saturday April 27 – It’s a Dog Eat Favorite World
By John Fazio
Good day from MLB Bets. Yesterday was a winner gaining 2.40 units on the day. What a jam-packed Saturday this is – let’s dive right in.
Using 1 unit as the base and allowing for lay and take, MLB Bets is now up 22.40 units on the season which is a new high. A twitter parlay play lost 1 unit while 2 winning dog plays made 3.4 along with the Tampa Bay rainout.
Tampa Bay (+1.33) bumps off Boston, 4:05 pm
Boston is favored because they knocked around Charlie Morton in Tampa. No two games are alike.
Should the Sox be favored? Here we go with the comparisons:
Tampa is 7-2 on the road, Boston is 4-5 at home
Tampa is 16-9 overall, Boston is 10-15
Both teams are 5-5 in their last 10 games
Charlie Morton has 4 of 5 quality starts, David Price 2 of 4
Currently 65% of the wagers placed are on Boston; the feeling being Price
has turned the corner since his last 2 starts have been good, especially the one at home against Baltimore. Game 1 will be a good indication of how this series will play out. Today, MLB Bets likes Tampa.
Baltimore (+2.30) shocks Minnesota, 2:10 pm
To be a prohibitive favorite you need a pitching edge. The Twins don’t have it.
Okay guys I know right now out there it’s the wild west fading Baltimore. All the cool kids are doing it. But here’s the thing: Baltimore really isn’t as bad as they sometimes (or often) look. Going into last nights game, the Birds are 7-6 on the road and the Twins are 5-4 at home. Remember this is a 2 1/2 – 1 favorite we are discussing.
Dan Straily gets the call for the Orioles. He matched up with Twins starter Jose Berrios exactly 1 week ago and out-pitched him. Maybe better said he wasn’t as bad as Jose.
In his prior start at Boston he went 5 innings allowing only 1 run. Now I know Boston is off to a slow start but this does prove Dan can pitch effectively on the road.
Looking at these 2 teams and the pitchers, there are too many similarities. To MLB Bets, this game is closer to a pick than a blowout for Minny.
MLB Bets – Saturday April 27
Cleveland (+1.32) humbles the Astros, 4:05 pm
The Indians find themselves pressed to win in Houston. They’ve got the guns to do it today.
The starting pitchers finally favor the Tribe today, enough to entice MLB Bets into making them a value play at dog odds. Cleveland has been competitive in negative pitcher circumstances so this should provide them with an easier path.
Shane Bieber takes the hill for the Tribe having pitched great in 3 starts and poorly only in his last one, the Sunday night game against Atlanta. In his 2 road starts he pitched 13 innings allowing only 1 run. Crazy things happen on Sunday nights in baseball. Toss that game out, he looks good here tonight.
Brad Peacock takes the ball for Houston. In his two home starts he pitched 10 innings giving up 8 earned runs. This is a huge difference on the mound; as a result MLB Bets wants to split this wager. Half of the bet on the 1st 5 innings +1/2 and half the wager on the game.
Houston being at home, according to past results, is not an advantage here today. Amazingly, the tribe is 8-0 in Shane’s last eight road starts. And in Brad’s last 6 home starts, the Astros are 1-5.
Detroit (+1.23) skewers the White Sox, 7:10 pm
The Tigers love to hit in Chicago. They don’t mind the winning either, notwithstanding the collapse last night.
Even with that, amazingly Detroit is 8-2 the last 10 games they have played in Chicago. The over is 5-1. It’s one of those crazy unexplainable trends that just keeps on happening. Today, MLB Bets believes it can happen again. One bump in the road is not enough to end the trend just yet.
Ryan Carpenter goes for the Tigers. He has yet to make a good impression but the pitching entourage believe he’s ready for the big time now.
Reynaldo Lopez gets the nod for Chicago. He was rocked his first 3 starts but has pitched better in the last two. Yet he is unproven and MLB Bets wants to wager against him.
MLB Bets – Saturday April 27
Cincinnati (+1.20) stuns St Louis again, 2:15 pm
The Reds seem to hold their own in St Louis. Today they have a slight edge with the pitchers as well.
Tyler Mahle takes the hill for the Reds and Dakota Hudson goes for the Cardinals. Neither pitcher stands out but the Cincy hurler has an ERA of 3.52 to Dakota’s 5.89 for the Cards.
With last nights win the Reds are 6-0 against a team with a winning record. This team is streaky and when they start hitting it can be contagious, even though St Louis is not known as a hitters park.
Even still, the total going over is now 6-1 in the last 7 games played between these 2 teams in St Louis. The trends are hard to fight; the best thing to do is ride them even when they don’t make any sense. Let’s try Cincinnati again today.
San Diego (+1.60) eases past Washington, 4:05 pm
The Nationals are still trying to find their way. The Padres won’t let them do it.
San Diego hopes the days of being a pushover are behind them. Their play so far this season is making it a reality.
San Diego sends Eric Lauer to the mound. He has been fair to midland throughout April but so has Stephen Strasburg of Washington. Both have similar overall ERA’s but Lauer is more consistent while Strasburg has been all or nothing. Great games or getting bombed.
The Padres have flourished on the road winning 8 out of 11 while Washington is 5-7 at home. Many times it’s impossible to explain all the nuances that occur. MLB Bets only tries to identify them and stay with the trend in motion until it breaks apart.
The Padres are 4-1 on the road against right handers while the Nationals are 1-5 versus left handers. Let’s see if the trend can hold up again today.
MLB Bets – Saturday April 27
Milwaukee (+1.27) tops New York, 7:10 pm
The Brew crew runs in streaks themselves and can look bad in a series (like against St Louis), then come right back and assert some dominance. Today they look to continue just that.
The pitchers today have struggled mightily to find some way to get batters out. Both Brandon Woodruff and Noah Syndergaard have not been good. The series control lies with the Brewers right now, however, and so Milwaukee should find the hard contact coming easier to them and should win again.
Both teams have similar trends, some for and some against each one. Syndergaard has pitched well against the Brew Crew recently so MLB Bets is not expecting a blow-out such as was seen last night, but the system still predicts a win for Milwaukee.
Colorado (+1.15) shuts down the Braves, 7:20 pm
The Rockies did a good job getting to a stand out pitcher last night. Tonight they have a stand out pitcher of their own.
Jon Gray is turning out to be just what the doctor ordered for this Rocky pitching staff. After a slow beginning, in his last 3 starts he’s thrown 20 innings allowing just 2 runs. The only knock on him is his walk to strikeout rate, but he’s getting the outs when he needs them the most.
Mike Foltynewicz goes for Atlanta. He has mixed some good games in with some bad ones as he normally does.
Colorado is getting it together as a team right now having won 8 of the last 10 games. Atlanta is 1-8 when Folty starts against the National league West and are 0-6 when he starts against the Rockies, 4 of which were in Atlanta.
MLB Bets – Saturday April 27
Arizona (+1.05) has enough to beat the Cubs, 8:10 pm
This is finally the season the Diamondbacks can stand up to Chicago and take down a series. They look to accomplish that feat tonight.
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Both pitchers, Yu Darvish and Zack Godley , are not throwing well. This should be a hitters paradise, but the Arizona bats are more effective at the current time and so they should prevail in this game.
Chicago is 1-4 in Yu’s last 5 starts and that’s certainly not what was hoped of him coming to Chicago. Arizona plays even better against tough competition as they are now 9-0 versus a team with a winning record.
The crazy thing is if Arizona wins on Saturday the Cubs will have a losing record. Anyway MLB Bets is playing Arizona tonight.
MLB Bets Recap For April 27th:
Tamp Bay +1.33
Baltimore +2.30
Cleveland +1.32 for half the wager and half on Cleveland 1st 5 innings +1/2 a run
Detroit +1.23
Cincinnati +1.20
Milwaukee +1.27
Arizona +1.05
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