Fantasy Football: Where Should You Draft Gurley in 2019?

Fantasy Football: Where Should You Draft Gurley in 2019?

It seems like just last year when Rams running back Todd Gurley was the consensus first overall pick in fantasy football drafts (note the sarcasm). Even after a 2018 finish as fantasy’s overall RB3 whilst scoring 21 total TDs, he’s off many owners’ re-draft radars this summer. My, oh my, how things have changed over the coarse of 365 days.

Not even a full season after signing a 4-year, $60 million extension with Los Angeles, the injury bug began to bite Gurley. It was first reported that he was dealing with left knee inflammation after his team’s Week 14 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Even after resting him for their remaining regular-season schedule in order to have him ready for the playoffs, Gurley just never looked like the same back, garnering just 44 total rush attempts in three postseason contests. To make matters worse, the soreness Gurley experienced just so happened to be on his previously surgically repaired knee.

Gurley’s injury history dates back to 2014, where his junior season at the University of Georgia was cut short by a torn ACL in his left knee after just six games. Nonetheless, his tantalizing elusiveness and athleticism were enough to convince the Rams to spend a top-10 pick on him in the 2015 NFL Draft. Handling the lion’s share of the Rams’ backfield duties (18 carries per game) since his debut in 2015, it was anyone’s guess just how long the budding superstar’s knee would hold-up.

Fantasy Football: Where Should You Draft Gurley in 2019?

It was evident the organization had concerns with their All-Pro rusher when they opted to select Memphis running back Darrell Henderson in the third round of April’s draft. Henderson, who stands at 5’9″, 200 pounds, was arguably the best draft-eligible ball carrier in college football in 2018. As a junior, the explosive play-maker finished just shy of 2,000 rushing yards, mustering an impressive 8.9 yards per carry.

As you can see in just one of his many highlights, Henderson is more physical that his sub-par frame would suggest. He uses a blend of balance and quick acceleration to get to the second level.

As if his selection by the Rams weren’t enough to raise some red flags for Gurley’s 2019 role, NFL Insider Ian Rapoport stated on Tuesday that the former Bulldog’s days as a bell-cow back are likely over.

"“Just based on his knee, his age, the position, the amount of carries he’s had,” Rapoport elaborated, “It’s probably not going to be like that, which is by the way maybe why the Rams drafted a running back in the third round, someone they really like a lot. This is a team that is clearly ready to spread the ball around.”"

This report came just a few after L.A.’s general manager Les Snead told the media that Gurley was unlikely to play in the preseason. In sitting out both OTA’s and the preseason, Rams brass hopes Gurley can come into September at full health.

Fantasy Football: Where Should You Draft Gurley in 2019?

While none of this may seem like particularly good news for the 2017 Offensive Player of the Year, it’s not a complete deal-breaker. Sure, you can find a safer pick at end of the first/early second round, but recent expert mocks have shown Gurley going as late as early third round. Rotoworld fantasy football expert Evan Silva tweeted the following a couple days ago.

While some aren’t willing to touch Gurley in fantasy drafts, there must become a point where his value becomes too much to pass up. With that being said, does his 2019 situation provide owners with enough upside to warrant a pick at the second/third-round turn? Let’s take a look.

What we do know is that a healthy Gurley is a touchdown machine, largely due to his unmatched production in the red zone. Over the past two seasons, Gurley’s 40 total offensive touchdowns are second to none at the RB position. When the Rams have been inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line, they’ve force-fed him the ball.

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In 2018, Gurley led the NFL in red zone carries (64) by a fairly wide margin. On runs inside the 10, he took a league-high 36 attempts and converted those into 14 touchdowns (also the best in football).

Even with a reduced workload in 2019, Gurley’s role near the goal line isn’t going anywhere. His counterpart, Henderson, while known for his home-run ability, isn’t an accomplished runner between the tackles and is a bit undersized. For this reason, Gurley’s touchdown upside remains intact.

Another area where Gurley stands heads above Henderson is in the passing game. In 2018, Gurley’s 5.7 targets and 41.4 receiving yards ranked sixth-best at his position.

Last year with the Tigers, Henderson managed to reel-in just 19 receptions, 82nd among all college football RBs. While his hands aren’t terrible, many of his targets came via screens and dump-offs. Obviously, his receiving ability will improve at the professional level, but a Super Bowl contending Rams team won’t be willing to gamble on the rookie while a sure set of hands in Gurley watches from the sideline.

Los Angeles didn’t draft Henderson to overtake Gurley’s throne just yet. His draft selection was more so an “insure policy” for their two-time All-Pro back with so many questions surrounding his ailing knee.

Provided that Gurley’s offseason plan can help him remain healthy once Week 1 hits, he’ll still carry plenty of value heading into the season. His days of being a top-tier RB1 may be over, but his days of fantasy relevance are certainly not.

Perhaps fans’ overreactions have gone too far. There is an undeniable amount of risk tied to his name, but at the second/third-round turn, there aren’t a lot of players that offer the same kind of upside as Gurley. It’d be foolish to advise investing a first-round pick in him, but as his ADP continues to dip, Gurley makes a fine early third-round selection.

With his scoring prowess and capability as a receiver, Gurley won’t be out of the picture just yet in 2019.