Francisco Lindor is reportedly on the trade block this winter while his value is at its highest, and these teams need to make an offer for the Cleveland Indians’ superstar shortstop.
Since last offseason, there have been rumblings out of Cleveland that the small-market Indians are ready to start selling off a few of their high-priced assets and focus on the future. The Indians are in that tricky, in-between ground for teams that cannot afford to spend with the big boys.
They’re not out of the hunt by any means, but have seen their window to win a World Series come closer and closer to slamming shut. A team like the Indians cannot throw a few extra million at their problems to keep the window propped open.
The first signs that the Indians were thinking about making their stars available came around this time last year when starters Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber were quietly being shopped. Ultimately, both began the year with the Indians, but Bauer was traded at the deadline. Kluber is back for at least one more season in Cleveland after missing almost all of 2019 due to injury.
Last winter was just the warmup to what may be coming next for the Indians on the trade front. All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor is next up on the block. Entering his age-26 season and two years away from free agency, the owner of two Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers is on track for his own $300-million contract to rival Manny Machado and Bryce Harper.
The Indians know they won’t be able to afford to keep Lindor, and they are coming off a year in which they missed the playoffs and slid behind the Minnesota Twins, who have more young talent, in the division.
Lindor has developed into a true superstar, hitting .288/.347/.493 with 130 home runs, 384 RBI and 93 stolen bases in five seasons. He has averaged 42 doubles, 34 home runs, 85 RBI and 21 stolen bases over the last three years.
The rationale for the Indians is that their hopes of getting back to the playoffs in 2020 hinge primarily on their dominant starting pitching. That’s the team’s strength, and the rotation is good enough when at its best to carry a team without Lindor to the playoffs.
The Indians don’t have to be in a hurry to make a deal, as they still have two full years, but if they get blown away with an offer from one of these five teams, they’d be wise to pull the trigger and make the trade.
5. Tampa Bay Rays
The Indians are considering trading their generational superstar because they know they won’t be able to afford him in two years. The Rays had the lowest payroll in the league in 2019 by nearly $10 million and spent less than $65 million on a roster that won 96 games and nearly upset the Houston Astros in the ALDS.
Surely this can’t be a potential trade match? Hear me out.
The Rays are positioned extremely well to just keep doing what they’re doing next year and return to the playoffs. Boston and Cleveland both hitting the reset button knocks two potential contenders out of the way and gives Tampa Bay a smooth path back to the playoffs. Just getting there, however, should not be enough for the Rays.
It will take more than the status quo for the Rays to win the World Series. They need to really push their chips to the middle of the table and go all in on the next two years. The Rays can do that by agreeing to pay whatever arbitration bill comes with Francisco Lindor’s final two years of team control. This is an extreme longshot, but don’t rule something crazy like this out completely. When a superstar is on the block, anything can happen.
4. Atlanta Braves
The Braves won their second consecutive NL East title this year but were forced to watch their division rivals from Washington lift the World Series trophy. Yes, the Braves won the division, but the Nationals came out on top in the end and were the better team for the final four months of the year. Entering 2020, the Braves are on shaky ground as favorites to win their third divisional crown in a row.
At the top of the list of offseason priorities for the Braves this year is re-signing third baseman Josh Donaldson. He was a force in his first season in Atlanta and looks to have plenty left after shaking off two years of injuries to approach his old All-Star levels of production. Donaldson was happy as a part of the Braves young lineup, and they were happy with his leadership in the clubhouse.
Re-signing Donaldson isn’t set in stone, but seems more likely than not. After taking care of that bit of business, the Braves will likely set their sights on a starting pitcher. The problem there is that the top of the market is limited to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg. There aren’t any other true impact arms worth paying top dollar for, though the Braves do like veteran Madison Bumgarner.
Because the Braves are unlikely to find a huge upgrade for their starting rotation on the open market, they should chart a different course and trade for Francisco Lindor. They certainly have the talent in their farm system to entice the Indians.
Former number one overall pick Dansby Swanson hasn’t set the world on fire in his first three full seasons in the big leagues. Lindor would be an upgrade in every aspect of the game. An infield of Donaldson, Lindor, Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman would instantly become the best in the league, and by quite a wide margin.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Two winters in a row the Cardinals have pulled off huge trades, landing Marcell Ozuna and Paul Goldschmidt in an attempt to build a lineup that can keep up with the offense-first rosters of their division rivals in Milwaukee and Chicago. The results have been mixed at best, with Ozuna struggling in his two years in St. Louis and Goldschmidt putting up his worst full season in the big leagues, hitting just .260/.346/.476 with 34 home runs and 97 RBI.
The Cardinals managed to win the NL Central in spite of their offense. St. Louis was 10th in the league in runs, 11th in OPS and 12th in home runs. That’s not going to cut it heading into a season where they’ll be attempting to defend their first division title since 2015.
Having traded most of their best prospects for Ozuna and Goldschmidt, you might think the Cardinals would be tapped out and forced to sit out the Lindor sweepstakes. The Cardinals, however, are never out of prospects. They still have Dylan Carlson and Nolan Gorman to serve as the primary piece in a trade and a handful of power arms already in the big leagues.
It’s hard to determine if the Cardinals will keep mortgaging their future every winter to trade for the hitter their lineup clearly lacks. There are also affordable free-agent options this winter like Nicholas Castellanos that could help upgrade the offense. Shortstop is also an area of need for St. Louis, where Paul DeJong has posted back-to-back disappointing years after finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year in 2017.
If they can pull off a trade for Lindor, the Cardinals will have two years to work on convincing him to stay and Dexter Fowler and Yadier Molina’s big salaries coming off the books.
2. New York Yankees
The big focus for the Yankees this winter is on adding an ace to complete their starting rotation. Gerrit Cole will be their primary target, but he is believed to prefer the West Coast, where his hometown Los Angeles Angels have a gaping hole at the top of their rotation. The Yankees can offer Cole more money than anyone, which might be what it takes to convince him to remain on the East Coast.
Adding a starting pitcher to carry the rotation is an obvious need for the Yankees, but they will also be seeking a replacement for shortstop Didi Gregorius. The 29-year-old developed into one of the better offensive options at his position, but his approach at the plate lacks discipline and he is prone to injury. The Yankees will likely look to move on unless Gregorius is willing to return at a steep discount.
Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman has been one of the shrewdest navigators of the trade market over the last five years, so expect him to have the Yankees right in the thick of the hunt for Lindor.
Cashman has held onto most of his top prospects at the last few trade deadlines, so the Yankees do have some pieces to offer the Indians. The Yankees don’t have the deepest farm system, but they do have young, MLB-ready hitters like Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier.
An infield made up of Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu and Francisco Lindor would easily give the Yankees the best group in the league. A trade for the All-Star shortstop would allow Torres to make a permanent transition to third base and focus on continuing to bulk up without sacrificing the type of range needed to play shortstop.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have done almost everything imaginable in an attempt to win their first World Series since 1988. They’ve spent hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars, built an elite farm system, locked down their own free agents to keep the core of the lineup together and made aggressive trades at the deadline to upgrade the roster. Still, none of the moves have led to a title.
The Dodgers have won the NL West seven years in a row, topped 100 wins twice and have lost in the World Series twice in the last three years.
They’ll need to get bold again this winter to end their 30-year drought.
A very complete team with few discernible weaknesses has allowed the Dodgers to pile up huge regular-season win totals, but they haven’t quite been able to find a legitimate second superstar to push their lineup over the top. Having nine very good regulars makes a team almost impossible to beat in a three-game series in the regular season, but the Dodgers just need a little extra star power to emerge as the last team standing in October.
Because the Dodgers have worked so hard to maintain an elite farm system (something the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs have been unable to do while contending), they can offer the Indians a very solid offer for Lindor. A trade could be built around outfielder Alex Verdugo, catcher Will Smith, shortstop Gavin Lux or right-handed flamethrower Dustin May. Making Lux or May the focal point of trade talks might force the Indians to accept less quantity in favor of more quality.
Lindor is an obvious fit on the Dodgers current roster, where Corey Seager can be shifted to third base or even shopped on the trade market himself for additional roster upgrades. This is a no-brainer for the Dodgers, though. They have the pieces in place to make a run at Lindor and should be considered the favorites to land him if the Indians are committed to making a deal.