Iowa can turn Minnesota’s dream season into a nightmare

The Minnesota Golden Gophers have rowed the damn boat to 9-0, but need to focus on the task at hand on Saturday, as the Iowa Hawkeyes can so play spoiler.

Few outside the Twin Cities thought the Minnesota Golden Gophers would knock off the visiting Penn State Nittany Lions last week to stay perfect, but here we are. Minnesota has skyrocketed up the College Football Playoff Rankings from No. 17 a week ago to No. 8 this week. This is the biggest jump into the Top 10 in the history of the playoff, but first, the Gophers are in great shape to get to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game.

Minnesota can afford to lose one of its final three regular-season contests and still reach the Big Ten Championship. If the Gophers were to beat either the Ohio State Buckeyes or Penn State again in a rematch coming out of the East, Minnesota will do the unthinkable and reach the College Football Playoff at either 13-0 or 12-1.

That said, they face a critical road test at No. 20 Iowa. It’s a late afternoon kickoff, meaning it will be dark throughout much second half. Night games at Kinnick Stadium are a difficult environment for visiting teams to overcome, but if Penn State can do it, so can a team that beat them in Minnesota.

Iowa may only be 6-3 (3-3) with the Hawkeyes’ best win coming on the road against the in-state rival Iowa State Cyclones in September. However, the Hawkeyes are well-coached by the longest-tenured head coach in the Power 5 with Kirk Ferentz. Iowa doesn’t have the on-field talent to win a shootout, but the defense is legit and Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck better be ready for it.

The Gophers are the better team, but if they’re going to drop a regular-season game, this is probably it if they have an emotional hangover after their biggest win in nearly 60 years.

Even if the Gophers fall, it’s not the end of the world, right?

Yes, Minnesota can afford to lose here and still reach the College Football Playoff if the Gophers win out. But that might seem less likely, it removes all room for error and even if they win the Big Ten as a one-loss champion, there might be a way that the Selection Committee still doesn’t let them in.

A loss on the to a three-loss division rival doesn’t sink you, but it puts an absurd amount of pressure in the final two games. Minnesota has to beat a pitiful Northwestern Wildcats team on the road before hosting the rival Wisconsin Badgers for the Big Ten West crown.

Losing could potentially foreshadow a loss two weeks later at home to Wisconsin for the Golden Gophers. If those two losses happen, not only are Minnesota’s playoff dreams over, but they won’t be going to Indianapolis anymore. That’s because the two-loss Badgers will have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Minnesota and rip the title bout trip right from their hands.

Of course, Antoine Winfield Jr. may pick Nate Stanley off twice en route to a convincing Minnesota victory over Iowa before it’s even halftime. That’s certainly in play and we should expect Fleck to coach his players up like he always does. However, Iowa and Ferentz might reveal some things either Wisconsin or Ohio State can exploit later.

Emotions were high last week in Minneapolis, and rightfully so. It was a great game for Minnesota football, one the Land of 10,000 Lakes will never forget. But if Fleck’s team doesn’t follow it up with a win vs. Iowa, this dream season will quickly turn into a nightmare.

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