What will/should Tua Tagovailoa do: Declare for NFL Draft or return to Alabama?

What will injured Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa do regarding the 2020 NFL Draft? A big decision still looms for him.

Should he stay at Alabama or go to the 2020 NFL Draft? That’s the question hanging over injured Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa who admits it’d be hard to turn down being a top 10-15 pick. He also said he doesn’t know when he’ll decide whether he’ll declare for the draft or return to Alabama and he may take up until the Jan. 20 deadline for underclassmen to declare.

The most important nugget of all was Tua saying that it would be hard to turn down declaring if he was going to be a top 10-15 pick. Top 10-15 pick money is significant when it comes to NFL Draft picks. This article here broke down what the salaries from last year’s first round were projected to look like.

Based on those projections, a top 15 pick or higher would guarantee around $14.5 million or more, which is a very nice payday for rookies. A pick at the end of the first round projected to be around $5.5 million.

Second round picks and beyond don’t make the kind of money a top 15 pick does, and with Tua’s talent, he should be worthy of that type of selection.

It’s understandable Tua wants some sort of guarantee as to where he will be drafted. Declaring for the NFL Draft as an underclassman is always a potential risk. Injuries happen, whether they are at All-Star games, the combine or pro days. Obviously, Tua isn’t risking injury at those events. But, his injury is serious enough to have plenty of people question whether he can perform at the same level again. The question of medicals for him creates an issue.

Teams won’t be able to give him an assessment of where he might go because it all depends on how Tua checks out medically with his rehab at the combine and Alabama pro day. Since that won’t be definitive, that makes it difficult for Tua to weigh entering the draft.

The need for quarterbacks in the NFL and the lack of great options like Tua presents could make his decision an easier one. Even with injury uncertainty, there figures to be a few teams willing to take the risk of drafting Tua with the expectation and hope he’ll return to top health and look like the player he was the last two years at Alabama.

The Bengals and Dolphins pick in the top five currently, and both need the upgrade at the position. The Buccaneers could move on from Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers seems all but done with the Los Angeles Chargers and Cam Newton may be on his way out from Carolina. The Colts may look to upgrade from Jacoby Brissett in this draft and the Patriots and Saints could be looking to draft their quarterback of the future.

Is it still a risk for Tua to enter despite the number of teams that are interested in drafting a quarterback? Yes, it is. We don’t know how many of those teams could have Tua off of their board already because of injury concerns, or have him a round or two down their boards. That’s why Tua wants assurances because he could fall a long way on draft day.

Then there’s the option of returning to school. If Tua does that, he loses out on the insurance policy but can rehab at Alabama all year to get back to form for the 2021 NFL Draft. The problem with that is Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields are already being discussed as the top two passers for next year, and they would be less of a risk than Tua because of no major injuries.

All these variables can make your head spin, which is why Tua is taking his time with this decision. Both options have the risk, and both options have their rewards.

The NFL world awaits his decision, a decision that affects not just Tua, but NFL teams looking to draft a quarterback.

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