Two years after a quote for the ages, let’s check in on how the nine mistakes made of Josh Rosen in the 2018 NFL Draft are doing these days.
Remember when former UCLA Bruins quarterback Josh Rosen said nine mistakes were made ahead of him in the 2018 NFL Draft? Turns out, this quote has defined his unimpressive NFL career thus far.
Rosen was a former five-star recruit by UCLA in the 2015 high school class. The intellectual former tennis player signed on to play for Jim Mora in Westwood. He had an impressive true freshman season in 2015, but the UCLA program quickly went into the toilet in the coming years. Mora was fired after the 2017 NCAA season and in came failed NFL head coach Chip Kelly.
Kelly, who had great success in college leading the Oregon Ducks and very briefly in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles, discussed with Rosen about a possible return to UCLA for his senior season. However, with major first-round buzz and an opportunity to cleanly break away from a UCLA program undergoing a culture change, Rosen wisely put his name into the 2017 NFL Draft.
Rosen would be the fourth quarterback taken in the draft, going No. 10 overall to the Arizona Cardinals. He is now on his second team in as many seasons with Miami Dolphins and may not be a starting quarterback in the NFL after all. Rosen spent the better part of the 2019 NFL season backing up journeyman signal-caller Ryan Fitzpatrick in Miami.
So what we’re going to do today is see how the nine mistakes made ahead of Rosen are doing these days, as well as check on how things are going for him down in South Beach.
When Rosen went to the Cardinals at No. 10, it was a new era in Arizona football albeit, a brief one. 2017 was the last year of Carson Palmer‘s NFL career. Former Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians opted to retire and call games for FOX before resurfacing as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers only a year later. 2018 was Rosen and head coach Steve Wilks’ only year together in Glendale.
Arizona went 3-13 in 2018, finishing with the worst record in the NFL. Rosen played in 14 games, going 3-10 as the Cardinals’ starter. He completed only 55.2 percent of his passes for 2,278 yards, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Rosen averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, amassed a quarterback rating of 66.7 and was sacked 45 times, going down once about every 10 dropbacks.
With Wilks getting fired after one season, the Bidwill Family opted to go with former Texas Tech Red Raiders head coach Kliff Kingsbury instead. Kingsbury had said while he was coaching in Lubbock he would draft former Texas high school phenom Kyler Murray of the Oklahoma Sooners No. 1 overall if he had the chance. Arizona did just that in the 2019 and shipped Rosen to Miami.
Arizona received a 2019 second-round pick in exchange for Rosen, as well as a fifth-round pick in 2020. In six games with the 2019 Dolphins, he went 0-3 as a starter, completing 53.2 percent of his passes for 567 yards, one touchdown and five interceptions. Miami went 5-11 in 2019, with Fitzpatrick quarterbacking the Dolphins to all five of their victories. Rosen faded into obscurity.
Though it hasn’t been smooth for him since he went No. 1 overall to the Cleveland Browns, Baker Mayfield has had a better NFL career thus far compared to Rosen. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner had an impressive rookie season for the Browns in 2018. He went 6-7 as a starter, completing 63.8 percent of his passes for 3,725 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Cleveland finished within half a game of .500 in 2018, going 7-8-1 despite major upheaval to the coaching staff. Hue Jackson wasn’t allowed to finish the season he started. The same thing applied to former Browns offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams took over in the interim with Freddie Kitchens climbing up the ranks to be Haley’s replacement.
Simply put, the Browns bought into the hype and made major coaching mistakes this past offseason. Cleveland didn’t keep Williams and opted to promote Kitchens to head coach. He was in so over his skis, it could not have been more ridiculous. Cleveland regressed to 6-10 in 2019, despite trading for Odell Beckham Jr. Mayfield experienced what we call a sophomore slump.
He completed 59.4 percent of his passes for 3,827 yards, 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, going 6-10 as a starter. Mayfield could not stop saying dumb things at the microphone to the Cleveland media. Kitchens was fired after only one season. Even though he’ll be on his fourth head coach entering his third NFL season in Kevin Stefanski, Mayfield has been way better than Rosen.
They didn’t want to admit they needed a quarterback just yet, so the New York Football Giants opted to go with an explosive running back No. 2 overall in Saquon Barkley out of Penn State. While Barkley hasn’t achieved anything close to team success in the NFL with the G-Men, he has put together an impressive first two seasons in the league for the struggling Giants.
As a rookie, Barkley rushed for 1,307 yards on 261 carries for 11 touchdowns. He also had 91 catches for 721 yards and four trips to pay dirt out of the Giants backfield. This led to him winning the 2018 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award over quarterback Baker Mayfield of the Cleveland Browns. While Mayfield had better 2018 team success, Barkley was a Pro Bowler that season.
Despite missing three games in 2019, Barkley again went over 1,000 yards rushing and had six rushing touchdowns. He also had 52 catches for 438 yards and two touchdown grabs as a receiver. However, it was another trying year for the Giants, as they finished with a 4-12 record and the No. 4 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, one spot better than Rosen’s Dolphins at No. 5.
Overall, Barkley has had arguably the best individual success of any offensive player taken ahead of Rosen in the 2018 NFL Draft. Though the Giants have been arguably the worst team in football over the last two seasons, the seem to have an answer at quarterback in Daniel Jones, who was taken No. 6 overall out of Duke in 2019. The future looks a lot brighter for Barkley than Rosen.
By trading up from No. 6 to No. 3, the New York Jets lucked into Sam Darnold. The former USC Trojans quarterback had the feel of the potential No. 1 overall pick throughout much of the draft process. However, the Cleveland Browns opted to go with Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield with their top selection. That’s their prerogative, but what were the New York Giants thinking?
Not only was Darnold perceived as the No. 1 quarterback in this draft, but he now plays for the other team that calls MetLife Stadium home. While running back Saquon Barkley has been a better pro than Darnold up to this point, he’s still be a better NFL quarterback than Rosen. And that’s not to say Darnold hasn’t had more than his fair share of weirdness in his first two years.
On Darnold’s first career pass attempt, he threw a pick-six across his body. His first head coach Todd Bowles was fired after 2018. Enter Adam Gase with his wandering eyes and commitment to smelling salts. 2019 got off to a horrendous start for Darnold. He succumbed to mononucleosis and it looked like Gase would be fired before Halloween. Darnold returned and saw some ghosts.
To say Darnold’s first two years in the league were disappointing would be an understatement, but this is the type of nonsense that consumes you as a member of the Jets. Still, he’s 11-15 as a starter, completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 5,889 yards, 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions. For a mistake made ahead of Rosen, at least Darnold still has his starting job.
The Cleveland Browns had not one, but two top-five picks in the 2018 NFL Draft. This No. 4 overall pick came via the Houston Texans, who traded up in the 2017 NFL Draft with Cleveland to draft quarterback Deshaun Watson out of Clemson. Though Baker Mayfield has gotten more attention than him, cornerback Denzel Ward has quietly put together a solid start to his NFL career.
Ward was the top defensive player taken in his draft. Though many people thought it was a bit of a reach, the former Ohio State standout proved his doubters wrong by making it to the Pro Bowl as a rookie. While he has missed seven combined games in his first two NFL seasons out of Ohio State, Ward averages one interception for every five games he has played up to this point.
He has had 11 pass breakups each season and isn’t afraid to make a tackle either with 97 combined total tackles over his first two years in the league. It’s still very early in his NFL career, but the Browns might have drafted a multi-time Pro Bowl defensive back in this draft. The early returns are good, which should make the Browns comfortable about moving off Joe Haden.
One Pro Bowl under his belt and a starting role on a pretty good Browns defense entering year three is all you need to know about how Ward is doing over Rosen. He’s already better than the Browns’ former first-round pick Justin Gilbert who fizzled out like Johnny Manziel from the 2014 NFL Draft. Ward’s future is incredibly bright, even if he plays for the dysfunctional Browns.
Under John Elway, the Denver Broncos could botch an NFL Draft with the best of them. However, they did seem to land an excellent player with the No. 5 overall pick in pass rusher Bradley Chubb out of North Carolina State. Though his distant cousin Nick Chubb has had more success than him with the Cleveland Browns in the same draft, Bradley Chubb had a great rookie year in Denver.
Playing opposite of Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller, Chubb had 12 sacks in 16 games for the 2018 Broncos. Though it wasn’t quite good enough to earn him a trip to the Pro Bowl, Elway had to love landing a long-term suitable replacement for future Pro Football Hall of Famer DeMarcus Ware. Chubb has a bright future, but is coming off a frustrating 2019 season that ended prematurely.
After four games playing for new head coach Vic Fangio, Chubb tore his ACL and missed the final 12 games of the campaign. Fate would have it Denver finally found itself under Fangio once the weather changed. Had Chubb been healthy, who knows how good Denver could have been defensively down the stretch?
Even in a limited sample size of 20 games, Chubb has had the significantly better NFL career up to this point over Rosen. As the first pass-rusher off the board, Chubb held up his end of the bargain in year one. Year two was a wash, but his productivity in the ACC cannot be overlooked. It wouldn’t be the least bit shocking if he has double-digits sacks for the second time in his career in 2020.
Of all the players taken in the top 10 of the 2018 NFL Draft, the one who has had easily the best career up to this point is guard Quenton Nelson. The Indianapolis Colts traded down from No. 3 to No. 6 in a deal with the New York Jets and got the best offensive guard to enter the draft since Zack Martin went to the Dallas Cowboys in 2014. This is why the Colts should be good next year.
In two years playing for Indianapolis, Nelson has made it to two Pro Bowls and been named to two All-Pro First Team rosters. Though he plays the unsexy position of guard, he’s arguably been the best pick of the entire first round, right up there with Lamar Jackson who went No. 32 to the Baltimore Ravens. Nelson is on a Pro Football Hall of Fame trajectory entering year three.
Though his Colts missed out on the AFC playoffs last year, they will be in contention for a division title next year depending on how they perform against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC South. While Sam Darnold could still maybe be something for the Jets, the Colts have won the early part of this trade going away.
We don’t have to pile on too much here, but Indianapolis not only didn’t make a mistake of Rosen but made the best collection of decisions of any team picking in the top 10 of the 2018 NFL Draft. With a top-10 pick, you’re hoping to draft a player who could wind up in Canton. It’s still so early, but Nelson has the feel of one of the roughly five players in his class who will earn a gold jacket.
It’s interesting. The one quarterback picked ahead of Rosen that we all knew was going to be worse than him was Josh Allen. Well, it turns out he went to a great situation in the Buffalo Bills at No. 7 overall. Though accuracy remains an issue, Allen helped Buffalo reach the playoffs last year and has been a fantasy football darling nonetheless. Dare we say it, there’s a lot of optimism here.
In two seasons, Allen is 15-12 as a starter, including a 10-win campaign last season. Though his first-year numbers weren’t great (52. 8 completion percentage, 2,074 yards, 10 touchdowns, 12 interceptions), Allen took his game to a higher level in year two under Brian Daboll’s tutelage. He could be knocking on a Pro Bowl nod if the Bills end up winning the AFC East next season.
In his second year out of Wyoming, Allen completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 3,089 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions. It’s nothing to write home about, but playing for a defensive-minded head coach in Sean McDermott and in a ball-control offense, Allen at his very core is playing winning football for the Bills. Now, he’s got a No. 1 receiver in Stefon Diggs to work with.
What this comparison between Allen and Rosen tells you more than anything is that situation is beyond absolutely everything when it comes to young quarterbacks. Allen is beginning to blossom in his situation, while Rosen might be looking for his third NFL team in as many seasons since he was drafted No. 10 overall by the Arizona Cardinals in 2018. That feels like eons ago at this point.
Even if he hasn’t made it to a Pro Bowl and even if he never does, the Chicago Bears have to be happy about their No. 8 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft by selecting linebacker Roquan Smith out of the University of Georgia. He has a huge linebacking legacy to live up to in Chicago, but Smith has already found a way to pull at the heartstrings of many Bears fans. It’s a beautiful thing.
In two years with the Bears, Smith has 222 combined tackles, 13 for a loss of yardage, seven sacks, seven pass breakups and a pair of interceptions in 28 career games. While he missed four games last season, he really didn’t skip a beat otherwise during the change at hand from Vic Fangio to Chuck Pagano as defensive coordinator.
At his core, Smith is an instinctive player. He was the best player on the 2017 SEC Championship and national runner-up team at Georgia during his junior year. Smith was an All-American and took home the Dick Butkus Trophy before turning pro. It’s really hard to describe to people who haven’t watched him play a ton, but he has that special something that makes his team better.
In short, Smith is a galvanizing part of every team he plays on. Teammates feed off his energy, which the same thing can’t be said for Rosen. For the next decade or so, Chicago is banking on Smith being the quarterback of the Bears defense like Butkus, Mike Singletary and Brian Urlacher before him. Rosen is now holding on to his NFL career for dear life only two years in.
Mike McGlinchey has good genes. His older cousin is Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan, who too was a top-10 selection a decade prior to McGlinchey going No. 9 overall to the San Francisco 49ers. McGlinchey joined his college teammate in Indianapolis Colts guard Quenton Nelson as top-10 picks out of the University of Notre Dame.
Though he hasn’t been to a Pro Bowl yet, it feels like the 49ers have enjoyed the production McGlinchey has provided them at offensive tackle. Like his cousin’s blind side protector in Atlanta in Jake Matthews, McGlinchey is solid in helping keep his quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo upright. Of course, McGlinchey has already played in a Super Bowl in only his second season in the league.
What makes this pick better than the one the Arizona Cardinals honestly wasted on Rosen is how incredibly difficult it is to develop an offensive lineman in this age of professional football. Practices are rarely padded and linemen don’t get to hit like the used to. As for quarterbacks, the game has never been designed more to yield success for them than it is now.
Next: Every NFL Team's Biggest Draft Whiff Of All-Time
With McGlinchey’s competitive viability and overall team success, it is safe to say that every single pick made ahead of Rosen was better than what the Cardinals did at No. 10. Quenton Nelson, Saquon Barkley and Denzel Ward were the best picks. Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith and Josh Allen look to be of quality. Even McGlinchey, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have all been better.