Fantasy Football: QB rankings with projections

Tier 4

We’re now firmly in streaming territory, so don’t get too attached to anyone you pick here (except in deeper leagues). If you wait on QB, the best strategy is to take a safe option like Drew Brees or Matt Ryan, and pair him with a high-upside player like Daniel Jones or Gardner Minshew. Quarterback is the best position to stream because of the dependence on matchup and the abundance of options. There will be weeks where Ryan Tannehill will outscore Dak Prescott, making streaming very effective, but you still need to spend waiver capital on a QB frequently to run the strategy properly, because others will also want the hot waiver wire add of the week. When drafting a QB in Tier 4, consider the early schedules of each option and of the QB you already drafted. Also consider season-long upside if you feel like you can stash.

Passing: 512 attempts, 3584 yards, 24 TDs, 14 Int

Rushing: 90 carries, 432 yards, 4 TDs

272.6 Fantasy Points

As we all know, our nightmare of Cam Newton joining the Patriots has come true. I gotta feel happy for the guy despite the fact that I’ll be rooting against him in every game. Anyway, he fits the Patriots’ short passing game system perfectly, lacking a high Y/A mark in the recent history. I’m concerned about how his foot injury could affect his rushing production, but that’s baked into his price. If it doesn’t, he can outperform Tom Brady’s season last year where he finished as the QB12, as his rushing should cancel out his lower levels of efficiency. Newton could have some monster games if he’s around 100% and should be treated as a quality streaming option with low-end QB1 upside.

Passing: 560 attempts, 3920 yards, 25 TDs, 8 Int

Rushing: 70 carries, 350 yards, 1 TDs

269.8 Fantasy Points

There’s two ways to break out as a QB: an abnormally high TD rate or the combination of rushing volume and rushing touchdowns. Drew Brees had the TD rate last year, Josh Allen had the rushing volume and TDs, and Lamar Jackson had both. Gardner Minshew could fit the second kind of potential breakout player, getting 67 carries in 12 starts last year without scoring a rushing touchdown. He’s primed for positive regression in that department, and if he can combine that with a high TD rate, you’re looking at a mid-tier QB1. That upside is currently free in drafts, so why not take a shot?

Passing: 609 attempts, 4527 yards, 26 TDs, 14 Int

Rushing: 35 carries, 67 yards, 2 TDs

267.8 Fantasy Points

I’m not excited about Goff, but I can’t deny his potential. He had the volume, throwing 626 passes last year, he just needs the efficiency, which he certainly had in 2018. He still has talented weapons in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee, and Goff has the ability to sling his way to a QB1 season if he uses them properly. The weak offensive line and lack of a run game is a concern, but if that somehow becomes less of a problem as the year progresses, Goff could have a return to form.

Passing: 575 attempts, 4083 yards, 25 TDs, 15 Int

Rushing: 65 carries, 200 yards, 3 TDs

267.3 Fantasy Points

Burrow has the coveted rushing ability that breakout quarterbacks are made out of. I don’t love to start rookie quarterbacks, but the Bengals threw it 616 times last year, giving him the potential volume necessary to put up big numbers. If you draft him, you’re probably hoping for a later season breakout, but rookie Deshaun Watson showed it’s possible to be valuable early on.

Passing: 605 attempts, 4089 yards, 26 TDs, 12 Int

Rushing: 45 carries, 189 yards, 1 TDs

266.5 Fantasy Points

The Panthers were second in the NFL in passing attempts in 2019 and they aren’t going to want to run CMC to death, especially with negative game scripts. Teddy Bridgewater was a great fill-in for Drew Brees and should be able to exceed Kyle Allen’s meager production. I expect him to be more of a game manager for Carolina and handle his team well, but not be the most useful fantasy quarterback. A 400 yard, 5-TD game would be unheard of for Teddy B, so I’d rather target others in this range despite the volume he’ll have.

Passing: 525 attempts, 3990 yards, 27 TDs, 14 Int

Rushing: 30 carries, 150 yards, 2 TDs

262.6 Fantasy Points

I really want to blame Freddie Kitchens for Baker Mayfield’s struggles last year, but I can’t say it was all on him. OBJ was injured, but he and Baker didn’t seem to have nearly the chemistry that OBJ had with Eli Manning. The main problem with drafting Mayfield is the lack of volume that he’ll receive in Kevin Stefanski’s offense, which should mainly feature Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Expect an uptick in efficiency, but it’s very unlikely that Baker will be any more than a streaming option.

Want more fantasy advice?

Check these articles out:

RB Rankings (with projections): 1-20, 21-40

WR Rankings (with projections): 1-25, 26-50.

Player Pieces: Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Ridley, Brandin Cooks/Will Fuller, Henry/Engram/Higbee

Draft strategy (based on trends): Quarterbacks, Tight Ends

Also, follow my new Twitter @BenGrivas for notifications whenever I post a new article. Tweet at me with questions. Thanks for reading!