NBA DFS picks August 25: Where's the leverage on a two game slate?

NBA DFS picks August 25: Where’s the leverage on a two game slate?

Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz in action during a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Vivint Smart Home Arena on December 9, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images) /

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Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

NBA DFS guard plays

Luka’s huge performance in Game 4 is going to send ownership through the roof. If you are trying to take down a GPP, a fade is the right move. That will give you the leverage you need as long as you make the right picks elsewhere. Lost in that talk was the absence of Porzingis. If Porzingis sits again, I will have some exposure to Luka. If he plays, I made fade him entirely. With Porzingis in there, Luka’s ceiling is more like 60 than 80.

Donovan Mitchell has scored 158 real points in the first four games of this series. He’s a dangerous fade right now. I wont go as far as to say that his ceiling is higher than Luka’s, but if Porzingis is back, it just might be. The status of Gary Harris will make a difference here though. If Harris plays, I’m out on Mitchell across the board.

Jamal Murray broke the slate on Sunday. That was a ceiling game and his price jumped $1,200 on DraftKings. I like Murray as a change of pace off of Luka, but I’m not putting most of my night at stake on him. His floor is pretty low.

The first three guys on this list have huge upside. Then there’s Mike Conley. He’s a solid play for the price, but he’s cash only for me right now. I don’t see the sense in paying that much for him in a GPP when the ceiling on Lou Williams is much higher for a lower price.

Jordan Clarkson is about the same as Conley. He’s a strong play for the price, but he doesn’t have the upside you need to take down a GPP. The difference is that there isn’t anyone around Clarkson’s price that will give you the value that he does. Guard drops off quickly on this slate and the value plays are terrifying.

If Seth Curry isn’t hitting his shots, he wont help you. The same can be said for THJ. Dallas is the Luka and Unicorn show. Everyone else is just there to take up space. I like both if Porzingis is out, but if he plays, we have to look elsewhere.

Throw a dart at a dartboard. If you hit the right side, play Reggie Jackson. Left side go Landry Shamet. The Clippers rotations with Beverley out have been a crapshoot between the two. That’s the best way I can think of to discern between the two.